Comparing this year to last: A 30-team look
All right, time for some projections. What follows is basically projecting how many points, goals for and goals against teams are on pace for this season, and how those totals compare to 2007-08.
For example, the Sharks are currrently on pace for 27 more points than they had last season, and the Senators are on pace for 26 fewer. The Sharks are on pace to score an incredible 75 more goals than last season, and the Senators are on pace for 67 fewer. And in goals against, the Wild and Kings are on pace to allow 51 fewer goals, while the Stars and Marty Turco are on pace to allow 90 more.
Some good indications there as to why some teams are either doing well or struggling to this point:
| Points | ||||
| Team | '08-09 | '07-08 | Change | |
| 1 | SJS | 135 | 108 | 27 |
| 2 | BOS | 118 | 94 | 24 |
| 3 | NYR | 117 | 97 | 20 |
| 4 | MIN | 118 | 98 | 20 |
| 5 | WSH | 111 | 94 | 17 |
| 6 | DET | 130 | 115 | 15 |
| 7 | CHI | 101 | 88 | 13 |
| 8 | VAN | 100 | 88 | 12 |
| 9 | PIT | 114 | 102 | 12 |
| 10 | BUF | 101 | 90 | 11 |
| 11 | LAK | 77 | 71 | 6 |
| 12 | CAR | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| 13 | MTL | 106 | 104 | 2 |
| 14 | CBJ | 82 | 80 | 2 |
| 15 | TBL | 73 | 71 | 2 |
| 16 | ATL | 77 | 76 | 1 |
| 17 | PHX | 82 | 83 | -1 |
| 18 | EDM | 86 | 88 | -2 |
| 19 | CGY | 91 | 94 | -3 |
| 20 | NSH | 87 | 91 | -4 |
| 21 | TOR | 78 | 83 | -5 |
| 22 | NYI | 73 | 79 | -6 |
| 23 | ANA | 95 | 102 | -7 |
| 24 | STL | 72 | 79 | -7 |
| 25 | PHI | 87 | 95 | -8 |
| 26 | NJD | 87 | 99 | -12 |
| 27 | FLA | 72 | 85 | -13 |
| 28 | COL | 77 | 95 | -18 |
| 29 | DAL | 72 | 97 | -25 |
| 30 | OTT | 68 | 94 | -26 |
What's impressive is just how much better San Jose has been so far this season than over their 108-point pace last time around. Boston, the Rangers, Minnesota, Washington and Detroit are the other teams on pace for a boost.
How's this for a head scratcher: The Panthers are on pace to finish 13 points behind their non-playoff finish of last season.
| Goals for | ||||
| Team | '08-09 | '07-08 | Change | |
| 1 | SJS | 291 | 216 | 75 |
| 2 | CBJ | 246 | 190 | 56 |
| 3 | DET | 299 | 252 | 48 |
| 4 | CHI | 280 | 234 | 46 |
| 5 | ANA | 242 | 197 | 45 |
| 6 | STL | 246 | 202 | 44 |
| 7 | BOS | 246 | 206 | 40 |
| 8 | PHI | 280 | 245 | 34 |
| 9 | VAN | 241 | 207 | 34 |
| 10 | ATL | 241 | 207 | 34 |
| 11 | WSH | 266 | 238 | 28 |
| 12 | TOR | 250 | 228 | 22 |
| 13 | NSH | 246 | 227 | 19 |
| 14 | NYI | 205 | 189 | 16 |
| 15 | CGY | 242 | 226 | 16 |
| 16 | PIT | 255 | 240 | 15 |
| 17 | NJD | 207 | 198 | 9 |
| 18 | NYR | 207 | 205 | 2 |
| 19 | DAL | 231 | 237 | -6 |
| 20 | PHX | 203 | 209 | -7 |
| 21 | EDM | 212 | 220 | -8 |
| 22 | MTL | 241 | 257 | -16 |
| 23 | FLA | 193 | 211 | -18 |
| 24 | MIN | 200 | 220 | -20 |
| 25 | BUF | 231 | 251 | -20 |
| 26 | COL | 203 | 224 | -21 |
| 27 | LAK | 198 | 226 | -29 |
| 28 | CAR | 216 | 250 | -34 |
| 29 | TBL | 173 | 221 | -48 |
| 30 | OTT | 191 | 258 | -67 |
It's nice to see teams like Columbus and St. Louis making some progress, but they give a lot of that up in the goals against department, where they've been far worse to this point. Other clubs like Atlanta, Chicago and Vancouver are quietly scoring more, too.
On the negative side of things, even with goal scoring up this season, there are seven teams on pace for 20 or more goals fewer than in 2007-08: Minnesota, Buffalo, Colorado, Los Angeles, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa. Four of those teams have had a coaching change and that can often mean changing the way an offence plays.
| Goals against | ||||
| Team | '08-09 | '07-08 | Change | |
| 1 | MIN | 159 | 210 | -51 |
| 2 | LAK | 212 | 263 | -51 |
| 3 | BOS | 169 | 215 | -46 |
| 4 | TBL | 223 | 266 | -43 |
| 5 | OTT | 205 | 242 | -37 |
| 6 | NYR | 172 | 190 | -18 |
| 7 | PHX | 207 | 225 | -17 |
| 8 | BUF | 217 | 233 | -16 |
| 9 | VAN | 191 | 206 | -15 |
| 10 | CHI | 217 | 231 | -14 |
| 11 | CAR | 238 | 246 | -8 |
| 12 | MTL | 212 | 216 | -3 |
| 13 | WSH | 226 | 227 | -1 |
| 14 | EDM | 246 | 247 | -1 |
| 15 | PIT | 219 | 212 | 7 |
| 16 | NYI | 251 | 240 | 11 |
| 17 | FLA | 231 | 220 | 11 |
| 18 | SJS | 201 | 187 | 14 |
| 19 | TOR | 276 | 256 | 21 |
| 20 | ATL | 294 | 266 | 29 |
| 21 | NJD | 226 | 193 | 34 |
| 22 | COL | 251 | 216 | 35 |
| 23 | PHI | 266 | 227 | 39 |
| 24 | STL | 271 | 232 | 39 |
| 25 | CGY | 272 | 224 | 48 |
| 26 | NSH | 273 | 224 | 49 |
| 27 | CBJ | 272 | 210 | 62 |
| 28 | ANA | 246 | 184 | 62 |
| 29 | DET | 251 | 179 | 72 |
| 30 | DAL | 294 | 204 | 90 |
So that's why Minnesota's been so good this season. The Kings, too, have been much tougher to play against despite what they've done to their blueline (and Erik Ersberg has played well), and already stingy Boston has tightened up on goals against.
We've certainly heard a lot about Dallas and Anaheim allowing more goals this season, but Detroit's been a completely different team in this department this season. That may change if Ty Conklin gets more of a chance in the crease, as he's outplayed Chris Osgood to this point.
Calgary, Nashville and Columbus have also had some real issues in goal, which is why the high numbers are coming up here.
In terms of projected goal differential, Boston is the runaway leader so far, followed by San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver and Minnesota. Pulling up the rear are Dallas, Colorado, Calgary, Nashville, Ottawa and Florida.
It's still early, so expect a lot of these trends to change.
0 recs |
11 comments
| Add comment
|
Comments
For the Wild
It’s all dependent upon two men. Marian Gaborik and Niklas Backstrom. If Backstrom plays like this all season, you’re looking at a Vezina and a very good chance at a repeat division title. If Gaborik comes back and stays on the team and stays healthy, it makes that chance even better. If he’s traded for prospects, it hurts. If he’s traded for Heatley or Spezza, it helps immediately.
So, I guess what I’m saying is that I love the defense the Wild are putting up right now, but the offense still has a LONG way to go.
by nathaneide on
Nov 19, 2008 2:18 PM CST
reply
actions
0 recs
It’s incredible they’re on pace to score 20 fewer goals than last season and are one of the best teams in the league.
by James Mirtle on
Nov 19, 2008 2:29 PM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Please God...
Please let the senators finish with 68 points.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on
Nov 19, 2008 2:32 PM CST
reply
actions
0 recs
Cripes, imagine if they tank for Tavares.
by James Mirtle on
Nov 19, 2008 2:34 PM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Maybe it’ll turn them into a two-line team with shoddy goaltending and suspect defence…
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on
Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Auld has a .926 save percentage.
Toskala?
by James Mirtle on
Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ouch!
SBN now has a NY Islanders blog at LighthouseHockey.com.
by Dominik on
Nov 19, 2008 5:41 PM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yeah Yeah Yeah
Sure, it appears like it’s fixed…
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on
Nov 20, 2008 9:02 AM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
These things are funny. Right now, Montreal fans view their team as underachieving greatly (and there’s no question they’re in a deep funk right now), but they’re still on pace to match last year’s pace (give or take a couple). Toronto has generally been a pleasant surprise to fans, and they’re currently on pace to have less points than last year.
It’s early, and things will become much clearer by the mid-point. But some issues that are currently plaguing some teams will not be solved this year.
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
by saskhab on
Nov 19, 2008 2:40 PM CST
reply
actions
0 recs
It’s a similar situation in Detroit as well with respect to underachieving. They’re on pace to surpass their point total of last year(though last season it was a few points lower than it might have been without injuries to their top 4 D, but still), but their is much room for improvement in their game. Their goals against when prejected over a full season is horrible compared to last season(for Detroit, that is). Their defensive play at even strength and their PK started off badly this season. There’s been seen so much uncharacterstic play in the defensive zone with coverage and outlets. It has improved lately, but against Tampa, Florida and Edmonton. Teams like San Jose and Pittsburgh(I’d say Montreal too but I know how you feel about that, Sask) will be a better litmus test.
by Bosc Ulrich on
Nov 20, 2008 11:25 AM CST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Reading that the Devils are on pace for a mere 87 points was like a kick to the stomach. I’ll think I’ll make that a point of discussion today.
by John Fischer on
Nov 19, 2008 4:34 PM CST
reply
actions
0 recs








