Comparing this year to last: A 30-team look

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 2:01 PM CST in Statistics Comment 11 comments

All right, time for some projections. What follows is basically projecting how many points, goals for and goals against teams are on pace for this season, and how those totals compare to 2007-08.

For example, the Sharks are currrently on pace for 27 more points than they had last season, and the Senators are on pace for 26 fewer. The Sharks are on pace to score an incredible 75 more goals than last season, and the Senators are on pace for 67 fewer. And in goals against, the Wild and Kings are on pace to allow 51 fewer goals, while the Stars and Marty Turco are on pace to allow 90 more.

Some good indications there as to why some teams are either doing well or struggling to this point:

		Points
	Team	'08-09	'07-08	Change
1	SJS	135	108	27
2	BOS	118	94	24
3	NYR	117	97	20
4	MIN	118	98	20
5	WSH	111	94	17
6	DET	130	115	15
7	CHI	101	88	13
8	VAN	100	88	12
9	PIT	114	102	12
10	BUF	101	90	11
11	LAK	77	71	6
12	CAR	95	92	3
13	MTL	106	104	2
14	CBJ	82	80	2
15	TBL	73	71	2
16	ATL	77	76	1
17	PHX	82	83	-1
18	EDM	86	88	-2
19	CGY	91	94	-3
20	NSH	87	91	-4
21	TOR	78	83	-5
22	NYI	73	79	-6
23	ANA	95	102	-7
24	STL	72	79	-7
25	PHI	87	95	-8
26	NJD	87	99	-12
27	FLA	72	85	-13
28	COL	77	95	-18
29	DAL	72	97	-25
30	OTT	68	94	-26

What's impressive is just how much better San Jose has been so far this season than over their 108-point pace last time around. Boston, the Rangers, Minnesota, Washington and Detroit are the other teams on pace for a boost.

How's this for a head scratcher: The Panthers are on pace to finish 13 points behind their non-playoff finish of last season.

		Goals for
	Team	'08-09	'07-08	Change
1	SJS	291	216	75
2	CBJ	246	190	56
3	DET	299	252	48
4	CHI	280	234	46
5	ANA	242	197	45
6	STL	246	202	44
7	BOS	246	206	40
8	PHI	280	245	34
9	VAN	241	207	34
10	ATL	241	207	34
11	WSH	266	238	28
12	TOR	250	228	22
13	NSH	246	227	19
14	NYI	205	189	16
15	CGY	242	226	16
16	PIT	255	240	15
17	NJD	207	198	9
18	NYR	207	205	2
19	DAL	231	237	-6
20	PHX	203	209	-7
21	EDM	212	220	-8
22	MTL	241	257	-16
23	FLA	193	211	-18
24	MIN	200	220	-20
25	BUF	231	251	-20
26	COL	203	224	-21
27	LAK	198	226	-29
28	CAR	216	250	-34
29	TBL	173	221	-48
30	OTT	191	258	-67

It's nice to see teams like Columbus and St. Louis making some progress, but they give a lot of that up in the goals against department, where they've been far worse to this point. Other clubs like Atlanta, Chicago and Vancouver are quietly scoring more, too.

On the negative side of things, even with goal scoring up this season, there are seven teams on pace for 20 or more goals fewer than in 2007-08: Minnesota, Buffalo, Colorado, Los Angeles, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa. Four of those teams have had a coaching change and that can often mean changing the way an offence plays.

		Goals against
	Team	'08-09	'07-08	Change
1	MIN	159	210	-51
2	LAK	212	263	-51
3	BOS	169	215	-46
4	TBL	223	266	-43
5	OTT	205	242	-37
6	NYR	172	190	-18
7	PHX	207	225	-17
8	BUF	217	233	-16
9	VAN	191	206	-15
10	CHI	217	231	-14
11	CAR	238	246	-8
12	MTL	212	216	-3
13	WSH	226	227	-1
14	EDM	246	247	-1
15	PIT	219	212	7
16	NYI	251	240	11
17	FLA	231	220	11
18	SJS	201	187	14
19	TOR	276	256	21
20	ATL	294	266	29
21	NJD	226	193	34
22	COL	251	216	35
23	PHI	266	227	39
24	STL	271	232	39
25	CGY	272	224	48
26	NSH	273	224	49
27	CBJ	272	210	62
28	ANA	246	184	62
29	DET	251	179	72
30	DAL	294	204	90

So that's why Minnesota's been so good this season. The Kings, too, have been much tougher to play against despite what they've done to their blueline (and Erik Ersberg has played well), and already stingy Boston has tightened up on goals against.

We've certainly heard a lot about Dallas and Anaheim allowing more goals this season, but Detroit's been a completely different team in this department this season. That may change if Ty Conklin gets more of a chance in the crease, as he's outplayed Chris Osgood to this point.

Calgary, Nashville and Columbus have also had some real issues in goal, which is why the high numbers are coming up here.

In terms of projected goal differential, Boston is the runaway leader so far, followed by San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver and Minnesota. Pulling up the rear are Dallas, Colorado, Calgary, Nashville, Ottawa and Florida.

It's still early, so expect a lot of these trends to change.

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Comments

For the Wild

It’s all dependent upon two men. Marian Gaborik and Niklas Backstrom. If Backstrom plays like this all season, you’re looking at a Vezina and a very good chance at a repeat division title. If Gaborik comes back and stays on the team and stays healthy, it makes that chance even better. If he’s traded for prospects, it hurts. If he’s traded for Heatley or Spezza, it helps immediately.

So, I guess what I’m saying is that I love the defense the Wild are putting up right now, but the offense still has a LONG way to go.

by nathaneide on Nov 19, 2008 2:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It’s incredible they’re on pace to score 20 fewer goals than last season and are one of the best teams in the league.

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Please God...

Please let the senators finish with 68 points.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 19, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Cripes, imagine if they tank for Tavares.

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it’ll turn them into a two-line team with shoddy goaltending and suspect defence…

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Auld has a .926 save percentage.

Toskala?

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch!

SBN now has a NY Islanders blog at LighthouseHockey.com.

by Dominik on Nov 19, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah Yeah Yeah

Sure, it appears like it’s fixed…

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 20, 2008 9:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

These things are funny. Right now, Montreal fans view their team as underachieving greatly (and there’s no question they’re in a deep funk right now), but they’re still on pace to match last year’s pace (give or take a couple). Toronto has generally been a pleasant surprise to fans, and they’re currently on pace to have less points than last year.

It’s early, and things will become much clearer by the mid-point. But some issues that are currently plaguing some teams will not be solved this year.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Nov 19, 2008 2:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It’s a similar situation in Detroit as well with respect to underachieving. They’re on pace to surpass their point total of last year(though last season it was a few points lower than it might have been without injuries to their top 4 D, but still), but their is much room for improvement in their game. Their goals against when prejected over a full season is horrible compared to last season(for Detroit, that is). Their defensive play at even strength and their PK started off badly this season. There’s been seen so much uncharacterstic play in the defensive zone with coverage and outlets. It has improved lately, but against Tampa, Florida and Edmonton. Teams like San Jose and Pittsburgh(I’d say Montreal too but I know how you feel about that, Sask) will be a better litmus test.

by Bosc Ulrich on Nov 20, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs