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Comparing this year to last: A 30-team look

All right, time for some projections. What follows is basically projecting how many points, goals for and goals against teams are on pace for this season, and how those totals compare to 2007-08.

For example, the Sharks are currrently on pace for 27 more points than they had last season, and the Senators are on pace for 26 fewer. The Sharks are on pace to score an incredible 75 more goals than last season, and the Senators are on pace for 67 fewer. And in goals against, the Wild and Kings are on pace to allow 51 fewer goals, while the Stars and Marty Turco are on pace to allow 90 more.

Some good indications there as to why some teams are either doing well or struggling to this point:

Points
   Team         '08-09  '07-08 Change
1 SJS  135 108 27
2 BOS  118 94 24
3 NYR  117 97 20
4 MIN  118 98 20
5 WSH  111 94 17
6 DET  130 115 15
7 CHI  101 88 13
8 VAN  100 88 12
9 PIT  114 102 12
10 BUF  101 90 11
11 LAK  77 71 6
12 CAR  95 92 3
13 MTL  106 104 2
14 CBJ  82 80 2
15 TBL  73 71 2
16 ATL  77 76 1
17 PHX  82 83 -1
18 EDM  86 88 -2
19 CGY  91 94 -3
20 NSH  87 91 -4
21 TOR  78 83 -5
22 NYI  73 79 -6
23 ANA  95 102 -7
24 STL  72 79 -7
25 PHI  87 95 -8
26 NJD  87 99 -12
27 FLA  72 85 -13
28 COL  77 95 -18
29 DAL  72 97 -25
30 OTT  68 94 -26

 

What's impressive is just how much better San Jose has been so far this season than over their 108-point pace last time around. Boston, the Rangers, Minnesota, Washington and Detroit are the other teams on pace for a boost.

How's this for a head scratcher: The Panthers are on pace to finish 13 points behind their non-playoff finish of last season.

Goals for
   Team         '08-09  '07-08 Change
1 SJS  291 216 75
2 CBJ  246 190 56
3 DET  299 252 48
4 CHI  280 234 46
5 ANA  242 197 45
6 STL  246 202 44
7 BOS  246 206 40
8 PHI  280 245 34
9 VAN  241 207 34
10 ATL  241 207 34
11 WSH  266 238 28
12 TOR  250 228 22
13 NSH  246 227 19
14 NYI  205 189 16
15 CGY  242 226 16
16 PIT  255 240 15
17 NJD  207 198 9
18 NYR  207 205 2
19 DAL  231 237 -6
20 PHX  203 209 -7
21 EDM  212 220 -8
22 MTL  241 257 -16
23 FLA  193 211 -18
24 MIN  200 220 -20
25 BUF  231 251 -20
26 COL  203 224 -21
27 LAK  198 226 -29
28 CAR  216 250 -34
29 TBL  173 221 -48
30 OTT  191 258 -67


It's nice to see teams like Columbus and St. Louis making some progress, but they give a lot of that up in the goals against department, where they've been far worse to this point. Other clubs like Atlanta, Chicago and Vancouver are quietly scoring more, too.

On the negative side of things, even with goal scoring up this season, there are seven teams on pace for 20 or more goals fewer than in 2007-08: Minnesota, Buffalo, Colorado, Los Angeles, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa. Four of those teams have had a coaching change and that can often mean changing the way an offence plays.

Goals against
       Team         '08-09  '07-08 Change
1 MIN  159 210 -51
2 LAK  212 263 -51
3 BOS  169 215 -46
4 TBL  223 266 -43
5 OTT  205 242 -37
6 NYR  172 190 -18
7 PHX  207 225 -17
8 BUF  217 233 -16
9 VAN  191 206 -15
10 CHI  217 231 -14
11 CAR  238 246 -8
12 MTL  212 216 -3
13 WSH  226 227 -1
14 EDM  246 247 -1
15 PIT  219 212 7
16 NYI  251 240 11
17 FLA  231 220 11
18 SJS  201 187 14
19 TOR  276 256 21
20 ATL  294 266 29
21 NJD  226 193 34
22 COL  251 216 35
23 PHI  266 227 39
24 STL  271 232 39
25 CGY  272 224 48
26 NSH  273 224 49
27 CBJ  272 210 62
28 ANA  246 184 62
29 DET  251 179 72
30 DAL  294 204 90


So that's why Minnesota's been so good this season. The Kings, too, have been much tougher to play against despite what they've done to their blueline (and Erik Ersberg has played well), and already stingy Boston has tightened up on goals against.

We've certainly heard a lot about Dallas and Anaheim allowing more goals this season, but Detroit's been a completely different team in this department this season. That may change if Ty Conklin gets more of a chance in the crease, as he's outplayed Chris Osgood to this point.

Calgary, Nashville and Columbus have also had some real issues in goal, which is why the high numbers are coming up here.

In terms of projected goal differential, Boston is the runaway leader so far, followed by San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver and Minnesota. Pulling up the rear are Dallas, Colorado, Calgary, Nashville, Ottawa and Florida.

It's still early, so expect a lot of these trends to change.

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Comments

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For the Wild

It’s all dependent upon two men. Marian Gaborik and Niklas Backstrom. If Backstrom plays like this all season, you’re looking at a Vezina and a very good chance at a repeat division title. If Gaborik comes back and stays on the team and stays healthy, it makes that chance even better. If he’s traded for prospects, it hurts. If he’s traded for Heatley or Spezza, it helps immediately.

So, I guess what I’m saying is that I love the defense the Wild are putting up right now, but the offense still has a LONG way to go.

by nathaneide on Nov 19, 2008 2:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It’s incredible they’re on pace to score 20 fewer goals than last season and are one of the best teams in the league.

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Please God...

Please let the senators finish with 68 points.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 19, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Cripes, imagine if they tank for Tavares.

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it’ll turn them into a two-line team with shoddy goaltending and suspect defence…

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 19, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Auld has a .926 save percentage.

Toskala?

by James Mirtle on Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch!

SBN now has a NY Islanders blog at LighthouseHockey.com.

by Dominik on Nov 19, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah Yeah Yeah

Sure, it appears like it’s fixed…

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 20, 2008 9:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

These things are funny. Right now, Montreal fans view their team as underachieving greatly (and there’s no question they’re in a deep funk right now), but they’re still on pace to match last year’s pace (give or take a couple). Toronto has generally been a pleasant surprise to fans, and they’re currently on pace to have less points than last year.

It’s early, and things will become much clearer by the mid-point. But some issues that are currently plaguing some teams will not be solved this year.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Nov 19, 2008 2:40 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It’s a similar situation in Detroit as well with respect to underachieving. They’re on pace to surpass their point total of last year(though last season it was a few points lower than it might have been without injuries to their top 4 D, but still), but their is much room for improvement in their game. Their goals against when prejected over a full season is horrible compared to last season(for Detroit, that is). Their defensive play at even strength and their PK started off badly this season. There’s been seen so much uncharacterstic play in the defensive zone with coverage and outlets. It has improved lately, but against Tampa, Florida and Edmonton. Teams like San Jose and Pittsburgh(I’d say Montreal too but I know how you feel about that, Sask) will be a better litmus test.

by Bosc Ulrich on Nov 20, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Reading that the Devils are on pace for a mere 87 points was like a kick to the stomach. I’ll think I’ll make that a point of discussion today.

by John Fischer on Nov 19, 2008 4:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs


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