James, quick question; is the data behind your matrix for this season only? I’ve done similar for seasons past and will have to compare to see if any significant differences pop up.

As a amateur hockey coach I can tell you why some good teams don’t block many shots. If the puck is in your offensive end you won’t get too many opportunities to block shots. For example, my team played a game yesterday afternoon and had a 40-8 shot advantage. We don’t keep track of blocked shots but which team would likely have an advantage in that statistical area?

I’d never had the impression that blocking a lot of shots in total is a good thing. Knowing and being willing to block shots when appropriate is good, but the volume itself says to me you’re just giving up too many shots and possessing the puck too little. Detroit at the low end makes perfect sense with how good they are and the style they play.

That Shanahan quote is funny. I wouldn’t say blocking shots is “the new thing,” but (particularly if coaches increasingly emphasize it) perhaps it would qualify as “the new trap” — i.e. a tactic for underskilled teams who don’t have the puck as much to try to decrease goals against. I certainly get the impression the Islanders block a lot out of necessity rather than belief that it is the way to the prize (and coincidentally, they have a few players who are very willing to do it).

This is a tactic that gained a lot of traction in lieu of the Carolina/Edmonton SCF. Both teams were heavy shot blockers. One was an 8th place team that made a run, the other had a no name defence but was a top seed.

Montreal is a pretty lousy team defenisvely, mainly due to the forwards if you ask me. It’s no secret that Montreal relies heavily on shot blocking and good goaltending for their defensive success… they never have a very good shot differential and are often outshot. Their save percentage to shooting percentage ratio last year shed way more light into the big GF/GA differential than the shots for and against did.

This is a terrific post.

Re: Puck possession teams like DET and WSH… The Caps have been awful at puck possession the last few games because injuries have forced them into playing 3+ AHL D. In the last two games the Caps have 10 and 14 blocked shots, well ahead of their season average of about ~6/game.

Mr. Mirtle. Shot blocking is definitely overrated.

I did my own post on the subject a little while ago. I corrected for puck possession by looking at percentage of shots blocked (blocked shots/blocked shots+shots on net):

Detroit, for example, only blocked 9.6 shots/game while about 33.16 shots were being directed at their net every night (blocked shots+shots against). Calgary, on the other hand, blocked slightly more shots per game (9.9), but mainly because they had more pucks flying around at the bad end of the ice (38.41). So while the Wings blocked less shots on average, we can probably say they were better at it than the Flames were (29% of total versus 26% of total).

As a Leafs fan, last year under Maurice they didn’t block a lot of shots, and this year under Wilson they are blocking a lot of shots.

There have been a ton of goals this year that have ricocheted off Toronto defenders’ shin guards that probably would have been saved if allowed to travel on a straight line.

Does a deflection off the stick and out of play count as a blocked shot? Or is shot blocking just limited to body blocking?

I was thinking if teams could block most or all the shots that normally be a shot on net it would be hard for teams to score and win. Maybe the low shot blocking teams are doing just that – blocking only shots that would be on net and not go out of position just to block a shot that would go wide.

People who study Shot Quality SV% have pointed out the interaction between these two things. Teams with weak goaltenders have defensemen who try to prevent shots, while teams with better goaltending are more likely to just let their net minder stop the puck. So good netminders see more pucks which leads to more easy SV and a higher SV%. There is an interaction between quality of net minding and Shots Allowed.

I think the clearest example of this was the pre-lockout St. Louis Blues who had terrific defensemen (Pronger, MacInnis) and so-so net minders (Lalime, Turek). They often allowed the fewest SA per GP and yet their goalies had bad SV%. If you trust your goalie you less likely to drop down if it is a borderline situation.