The NHL's most improved forwards

by James Mirtle on Dec 16, 2008 5:00 AM CST in Statistics Comment 12 comments

We're more than one-third into the season, so now's a decent time to take stock of who some of the breakout and rebound players of the season are. A few have been getting headlines; others may come as a surprise.

What follows is a list of which forwards are on pace (based on projected points) to most improve on their totals from last season (players who played fewer than 20 games last season have been excluded).

Unsurprisingly, many of the names at the top of the list missed chunks of last year due to injury:

			2008-09			2007-08
	Name	Team	GP	Pts	/82	GP	Pts	Diff
1	Simon Gagne	PHI	28	34	99.6	25	18	81.6
2	Devin Setoguchi	SAN	29	32	90.5	44	17	73.5
3	Alexander Semin	WAS	19	30	110.5	63	42	68.5
4	David Krejci	BOS	30	29	79.3	56	27	52.3
5	Doug Weight	NYI	30	27	73.8	67	25	48.8
6	Teemu Selanne	ANA	31	27	71.4	26	23	48.4
7	Sidney Crosby	PIT	30	44	120.3	53	72	48.3
8	Patrick Marleau	SAN	29	34	96.1	78	48	48.1
9	Phil Kessel	BOS	30	31	84.7	82	37	47.7
10	Bryan Little	ATL	29	22	62.2	48	16	46.2
11	Mikko Koivu	MIN	29	30	84.8	57	42	42.8
12	Jeff Carter	PHI	29	32	90.5	82	53	37.5
13	Martin Havlat	CHI	28	22	64.4	35	27	37.4
14	Zach Parise	NJD	27	33	100.2	81	65	35.2
15	Matt Stajan	TOR	28	23	67.4	82	33	34.4
16	Johan Franzen	DET	24	21	71.8	72	38	33.8
17	Patrik Elias	NJD	27	29	88.1	74	55	33.1
18	Dave Bolland	CHI	28	17	49.8	39	17	32.8
19	Tyler Kennedy	PIT	24	15	51.3	55	19	32.3
20	Todd White	ATL	29	24	67.9	74	37	30.9
21	Kyle Wellwood	VAN	26	16	50.5	59	21	29.5
22	Brian Gionta	NJD	26	26	82.0	82	53	29.0
23	Jiri Hudler	DET	29	25	70.7	81	42	28.7
24	David Perron	STL	28	19	55.6	62	27	28.6
25	Antti Miettinen	MIN	29	22	62.2	69	34	28.2
26	Evgeni Malkin	PIT	30	49	133.9	82	106	27.9
27	Andy Hilbert	NYI	30	16	43.7	70	16	27.7
28	Milan Lucic	BOS	30	20	54.7	77	27	27.7
29	Patrick Kane	CHI	28	34	99.6	82	72	27.6
30	Curtis Glencross	CGY	30	19	51.9	62	25	26.9

As far as I can tell, you can categorize these players in three ways: (a) breakout players, (b) triumphant return from injury or (c) a rebound season.

Breakouts: Setoguchi and Krejci certainly fit the bill here, as both spent significant time in the AHL this season and are now on pace for 90 and 79 points. It's probably not a coincidence that both of their teams have also done incredibly well this season. Unexpected scoring from cheap, young talent goes a long way under a salary cap.

Honourable mentions: Phil Kessel, Bryan Little, Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, Johan Franzen

Return from injury: Gagne's career could have been over after a lost season last year due to a bad concussion, but he's one of the league's leading scorers and on pace to come close to a 100-point season. Philadelphia's done well, too, despite losing a few key blueliners to injury, and he and Carter have been a big reason why.

Honourable mentions: Sidney Crosby, Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat

On the rebound: Weight has been incredible after 29 other NHL teams had him dead and buried. When other UFAs his age were forced to hang them up after subpar seasons, he caught on with the awful Islanders and has been a revelation on the power play. Semin, meanwhile, would be at the top of this list if not for another injury this season, as he's been a big part of the Caps offence and is on pace for 110 points despite missing 12 games.

Honourable mentions: Patrick Marleau, Patrik Elias, Todd White, Brian Gionta

It's incredible to note, too, that Malkin makes this list despite putting up 106 points last season. He is currently on pace to win the scoring race with 134 points, 14 more than Crosby and 21 more than Alex Ovechkin.

Here are the projected top 11 scorers:

			2008-09
	Name	Team	GP	Pts	/82
1	Evgeni Malkin	PIT	30	49	133.9
2	Sidney Crosby	PIT	30	44	120.3
3	Alexander Ovechkin	WAS	29	40	113.1
4	Alexander Semin	WAS	19	30	110.5
5	Zach Parise	NJD	27	33	100.2
6	Simon Gagne	PHI	28	34	99.6
7	Patrick Kane	CHI	28	34	99.6
8	Joe Thornton	SAN	29	35	99.0
9	Ryan Getzlaf	ANA	30	36	98.4
10	Patrick Marleau	SAN	29	34	96.1
11	Mike Richards	PHI	29	34	96.1

Mark those fellows down for the all-star team.

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Comments

Is there any reason you screened for forwards only? Shea Weber should be in your Top 10 here…

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Weight; I can’t imagine he’ll finish the season with the Islanders, and he could be one of the key assets available at the trading deadline.

More fun than a stick to the face!

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 16, 2008 7:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Shoot — you’re right, this is forwards only. Will do up the defencemen list next.

by James Mirtle on Dec 16, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

See… now you’ve got a whole ’nother post about half-done already!

More fun than a stick to the face!

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 16, 2008 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That was always the plan… for some reason I forgot when I wrote the intro.

by James Mirtle on Dec 16, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thomas Vanek?

I’m shocked he didn’t make the list. He’s leading the league in scoring right now, and while I know he doesn’t put up a lot of assists so his point totals aren’t as impressive, I have to think his goal-scoring pace warrants some attention here. He’s been pretty unbelievable all season.

by onetimer on Dec 16, 2008 7:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well, Vanek’s only on pace for 15 more points than he had last season.

by James Mirtle on Dec 16, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, don’t I feel silly.

He got such garbage from the Buffaslug fan base all year last year I assumed he had to be on pace for a monster improvement. Touche, good sir.

by onetimer on Dec 16, 2008 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

When you do the opposite list

I expect to see a lot of Habs players.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Dec 16, 2008 10:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...

The only Habs player that could fit there, point-wise, would be Thomas Plekanec. Both Kovalev and Koivu have similar point totals now than they did after 30 games last year (even though Kovalev has only 5 goals…), and the rest is about on-par.

by Habs on Dec 16, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you planning to do a list on players who’ve fallen off the cliff from last year?

by Bob Arctor on Dec 16, 2008 12:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, definitely.

by James Mirtle on Dec 16, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's no surprise that 3 Devils are on here...

The Devils’ identity on offense really struggled under Sutter’s first year, with the team seemingly dumping it in on a majority of situations going into the other team’s zone. After a full season, some re-tooling of the lines to find the right mix, and you got the offense to be at the very least competent.

Of course, individual matters are a factor too: Gionta being in a contract year, Elias playing like he has something to prove, and Parise just making a name for himself.

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!

by John Fischer on Dec 16, 2008 9:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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