Atlanta: A case study in how to kill a fan base

The prices keep getting cheaper and cheaper for tickets. For five years I purchased full season tickets. In most years it was my primary entertainment expenditure. To have NHL season tickets was a dream of mine since I was a 15-year-old kid envious of those ticket holders in Joe Louis Arena in Michigan.
The Thrashers were bad when I first bought, but I was patient and the tickets were cheap. I rejoiced in the victories and sorrowed in the many many losses. But I figured better days were ahead and we would someday have great seats for playoff games. But the good days never arrived and every year we had to deal with drunk college students with discounted tickets in front of us standing up in the middle of the play like they were at a Braves game and the pitcher was up to bat. Every year the people sitting around us paid less than what we had.
Atlanta's announcing 14,181 fans per game this season, a total that keeps them out of the basement in Islanders country but that ranks 27th in the NHL. And my guess, from seeing a half dozen games on television and an empty rink, that the Thrashers lead the way in fans disguised as empty seats.
Turnout at Philips Arena has been poor in the past, generally when the team has bottomed out in the standings. But according to the locals, the tickets that are being bought cost less and less every year and the season's ticket base has been almost completely eroded:

Don Waddell has incredibly been the GM of the Thrashers for more than 10 years now, since June of 1998, and he's not a popular figure in Atlanta. The majority of his recent high-profile signings and trades have been busts, and Ilya Kovalchuk is likely to be the latest star to make his exit.
Waddell, however, is in tight with the team's troubled ownership group, and there were even rumours he would be promoted into a senior administration role prior to the season. He has hung on while 22 other NHL clubs have made a change (or two) in the GM position, outlasting all but Lou Lamoriello, George McPhee, Jim Rutherford, Darcy Regier, Ken Holland, David Poile and Larry Pleau.
Waddell's recent moves, among others:
- Coming out of the lockout, signed Mike Dunham, Bobby Holik and Peter Bondra
- Dealt Dany Heatley for two and a half seasons of a more expensive Marian Hossa and two seasons of Greg De Vries
- Traded Braydon Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik, whose bloated contract was bought out prior to this season
- Traded a first, second and third round draft pick along with Glen Metropolit for 22 games of Keith Tkachuk
Marc Savard, currently fourth in NHL scoring, also walked for nothing as a free agent in 2006.
Somewhere in the rubble there is a solid NHL team, but Waddell hasn't been able to assemble it. Not even close. And this season, Atlanta's on pace for just 67 points, the third-worst total in the NHL and the team's worst performance since the expansion days seven years ago.
A pick in the top three in 2009 would be the Thrashers' sixth selection that high in 11 drafts. Under Waddell, the team has an all-time record of 249-343-45-51 and a points percentage of .432 that is worse than every other active franchise not named the Blue Jackets.
Fans like The Falconer are tearing up their season's tickets and going to games for free, waiting for the franchise's troubled ownership group to throw the fan base a bone and finally, mercifully find someone new to take over this team:
Will the Thrashers ownership make the major changes that are required. Will they recruit away the Sharks Director of Scouting? Will they find a new GM who has more than IHL experience to run a NHL team?
Or will the Atlanta Thrashers join the ranks of the Oakland Seals — a terribly managed franchise that eventually left that city and finally disbanded in Cleveland? The truth is that the franchise is certainly losing millions of dollars. ... Whoever wins the ownership lawsuit could easily blame the fans and complain that "hockey just didn't sell in Atlanta" and try to move the team. But the truth is Atlanta is just as capable of supporting a NHL team as Dallas or Tampa — but you have to win some games to draw people in.
As a fan, there is nothing I can do but wait for ownership to make the HUGE changes that will reinvigorate the NHL in this city. People are tired of losing and they're not coming back until there is a team worth spending their money on.
The worst part of it all is that things could get uglier when (if?) Waddell tries to deal Kovalchuk, something we're hearing more and more about as the rumour mill churns. It will be a difficult deal to make, a potential train wreck right up there with his previous muffed trades, and Kovalchuk has been the face of this troubled franchise ever since he was picked first overall in 2001.
The fan base will become even more disillusioned (and absent) should the deal go wrong.
Hockey in Atlanta needs a saviour and I don't know that they're going to get it. And you can't blame the fans for turning up their nose at this point.
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There may still be hope.
The bleeding has slowed in Columbus this year, now that the team is half-assed competitive. Scott Howson’s brought some decent players in and has a good coach in Ken Hitchcock to make it work. If they keep improving and actually grab a playoff spot at some point, that market should recover. In theory, that’s all any of these markets need (though you can’t have 30 winners every year), but you have to wonder if, at a certain point, it ceases to be cost-effective. I’m curious just how much the Thrashers are losing.
by Doogie2K on Dec 21, 2008 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Columbus is in some serious trouble. This year is the sixth straight season with an attendance decrease, and now they’re 29th in the league. They definitely need to make the playoffs.
by James Mirtle on Dec 21, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but this time last year, we were talking about averages of about 13,500 for Columbus, nearly 3,000 down from the year before, yet that increased significantly over the rest of the year to nearly 15,000. Their numbers are actually up slightly over this time last year, and I expect once college football is over, there will be more fans.
That’s not to say it’s not a troubled market; any fool can see that. It just seems to me that the team has gotten better and things could start to turn around for them in a hurry.
by Doogie2K on Dec 21, 2008 9:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I certainly think there’s potential there. They have one of the best rinks in the league and showed early on that they could fill it easily. They also haven’t slashed ticket prices to the level we’re seeing in Florida, Atlanta and Phoenix.
by James Mirtle on Dec 21, 2008 9:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I know several Jackets fans, and they have a VERY passionate fanbse, one that can be among the best US hockey markets. Granted, maybe not on a Detroit/Buffalo/NY Rangers/Pittsburgh level, but they really shouldn’t be on any “failed franchises” list quite yet.
As you guys have said, they just want a winner and time’s running out. That building will be packed to the rafters once they have a team to actually root for.
by Afino on Dec 22, 2008 7:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Welfare dependency
Is another case study the Thrashers would be a great example of. The worse they get, the more tickets they give away, are all in order to suck money from those who actually earn it. There is no motivation for improving. Don’t want to risk their pogge.
by penaltyshots on Dec 21, 2008 4:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
They’re going to start losing their revenue sharing due to not hitting revenue marks this season. It’ll be a very tough year for them financially, something The Falconer speaks to.
by James Mirtle on Dec 21, 2008 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just recall when I was a kid and the NHL expanded to Columbus and Atlanta, I thought it was not a sound idea. Hockey was just momentarily popular and the expansion teams didn’t really seem they’d be on sound footing.
There is a drive for hockey in the south, but not if you put a stinker there.
by hallock on Dec 21, 2008 4:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Columbus is really “the South.” Isn’t it only a couple of hours’ drive from Pittsburgh?
by Doogie2K on Dec 21, 2008 8:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Columbus is more Midwest. They get plenty of snow and honest winter weather, and colege hockey does well in Ohio.
I think the problem is that Columbus has been so bad for a while. They look like they might be turning it around, but the fans have heard optimistic stories before.
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Dec 21, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Columbus is more Midwest.
That’s what I thought, but my American geography is mediocre at best. Thanks.
by Doogie2K on Dec 21, 2008 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No worries. A lot of Americans have mediocre awareness of American geography, too. :)
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Dec 21, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t mean to lop Columbus in there with the South, my wording came out funny. I should have said you put a stinker into anywhere and it’ll fail. I live not too far from Columbus, it’s not the South.
by hallock on Dec 22, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Some might contend
that Columbus is East. I never bought into Ohio being Midwest. Its still in the Eastern Time zone and there are far too many trees. But then, being from Kansas, my view on who is “truly” Midwestern may be a bit skewed.
As for the Thrashers, I went to a couple games in the early days when my brother lived in Atlanta. There are enough transplants in Atlanta and the city is large enough to support a winner but you just cannot afford to screw with a precarious fan base.
by labbadabba on Dec 23, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Less than three hours from Pittsburgh to Columbus. Did the trip last year and it was a blast.
by James Mirtle on Dec 21, 2008 9:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It speaks volumes about Waddell
He came over from the Wings organization. If he was really a rising star, they would have gone out of their way to keep him, like they have with Ken Holland and Jim Nill. They deemed him expendable.
by Exit716 on Dec 21, 2008 4:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How very sad.
The worst thing is that fans are quick to hope if there is any evidence that things will be better. The Thrashers probably don’t have to hit a home run with a new GM – just someone who promises to be competent would be an improvement. Still, it could be worse yet. The team could be as pathetic as the Detroit Lions – and then hear that even after going winless in the first 76 games of the season that the owner possibly might not even fire a coach who believes that the team needs to shovel upward toward the light and that he believes in the invisible.
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Dec 21, 2008 5:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
“Waddell, however, is in tight with the team’s troubled ownership group”
I think the secret to his staying power has been his ability to run a low budget operation without complaining. My impression has always been that the hockey team has been an afterthought to the ownership group, their backgrounds are in NBA operations.
To me the worst part is that Phillips Arena is a wonderful place to watch a hockey game, more intimate than most modern arenas, and the staff on the ground there have always been genuinely pleasant and accommodating to fans. Coming through the Marta station (subway) and hearing fans chant “Let’s Go Thrashers” after an exciting win (far too rare), riding the subway with a bunch of local Finns singing Finnish drinking songs (I’m mentioning these things because I think Canadians have a very one-dimensional picture of Atlanta-it’s actually very diverse)you could almost imagine that you were at one of the old intown arenas (Boston Garden etc). The last act in this tragicomedy hasn’t been played out but “savior” is the appropriate word to use in this context.
by Big Picture Guy on Dec 21, 2008 7:25 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Especially with your point on diversity, I caught a game in Atlanta last month and there was a wider variety of fans than I’ve seen at any other hockey game.
The area kind of reminds me of Nashville: the fans that are there are just as ardent supporters of their club as you’d find in any other market….But the problem always remains in an untraditional market of how to keep the team on the radar and attract new ones. It’s difficult to do in areas where other sports are more known.
It’s almost impossible when a guy like Waddell has run them straight into the ground.
by Hooks Orpik on Dec 21, 2008 7:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
patience?
But the problem always remains in an untraditional market of how to keep the team on the radar and attract new ones. It’s difficult to do in areas where other sports are more known.
This was actually what I was thinking of when James had his posts on an increasing contribution to hockey of players from Texas, California, and Arizona. Clearly the increased hockey culture aided by an NHL team has helped – but I can’t help wondering, if it takes 15 to 20 years to really see dividends from investments in a hockey culture if anyone in struggling non-traditional markets is willing or even able to wait that much longer on the chance that some of the kids getting interested right now will grow up to be fans of the hometown team and stay in the area to buy tickets. Do any of the ownership groups in such a situation actually have the patience to wait for a long-term possible reward?
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Dec 21, 2008 8:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well for Texas
The Stars have only been in Dallas ten years. They made a concerted effort to build rinks and encourage kids to play. When they first came to Dallas there was like 500 registered hockey players in the city and two rinks. Now there’s over 15,000 and a dozen rinks. Kids from Texas are playing college hockey and a few are going to the WHL. They travel and play teams from northern states and do very well in tournaments. Those numbers will continue to improve too, especially now that the Stars are building a rink in Austin, where a lot of transplants live.
The thing that really helped though was that Dallas was good. The metroplex cares/follows winners and the Cowboys. The Mavs sucked. The Rangers have never won anything and thus there was a void. The Stars, with a good marketing department filled that void and haven’t looked back.
Atlanta has the transplants, total population and should be positioned to succeed but squandered picks, missed playoffs and just general poor play has killed them. The best thing would be to fired Wadell and take a serious look at their scouting department. With all those high draft picks they should by definition be better. That and hope that by moving Kovalchuk they get the right players back. Lehtonen’s injuries and poor play haven’t helped either.
I just wonder how long it can last before Ballsie or someone moves in to move them out.
by Hull Fan on Dec 22, 2008 11:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Remember, the AJC made a pretty big deal of the Thrashers’ trip to the playoffs. (As big a deal as they make of anything not UGA- or Falcons-related, anyway.) I know I was of the Southern “hockey is boring” mentality until I actually went to my first game. If you give people something to watch — i.e., a team that’s actually good — they’ll come and maybe find something to enjoy. If you give them something that sucks — which seems, at times, to be the intent of the Thrashers administration more than an accident — they won’t try something new.
And while Fauxrumors makes some good points about attendance in Atlanta below, he misses a couple of things. First, attendance at Falcons games is rarely disappointing, except when the team is even more tremendously awful than usual (see: 2007). Second, the Braves seem to have better luck drawing fans for regular season games, probably because they were (until recently) a lot more likely to win those games. Atlanta has a ton of fair-weather fans, which makes winning even more important.
No, Atlanta’s not a great hockey market. But winning could help that enough to make the franchise viable.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
by cocknfire on Dec 22, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1) Wadell is as an incompetant a GM as we have seen in the NHL since Milbury stepped down. How he can still have a job is as good a reason to stop going to games in Atlannta as any
2) That said, Atlanta traditionally has not been a great pro sports city with empty seats at Braves playoff games. A long term future of hockey in Atlanta does’t appear likely
by Fauxrumors on Dec 21, 2008 8:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
1st round draft history (1999-2008):
Patrik Stefan (1st – 1999, out of the league)
Dany Heatley (2nd – 2000, traded )
Ilya Kovalchuk (1st – 2001, still on team)
Kari Lehtonen (2nd – 2002, bust?)
Braydon Coburn (8th – 2003, traded )
Boris Valabik (10th – 2004, 14 career games)
Alex Bourret (16th – 2005, traded )
Bryan Little (12th – 2006, good pick)
2007 – Traded 1st round pick
Zach Bogosian (3rd – 2008)
Best other picks (1999-2008)
Garnet Exelby (217th – 1999, 328 career games)
Jim Slater (30th – 2002, 246 career games)
Tobias Enstrom (239th – 2003, 114 career games)
Other ‘expansion’ draft picks on active roster:
CBJ – Klesla, Leclaire, Nash, Brassard, Mason, Voracek
MIN – Gaborik, Schultz, Koivu, Harding, Bouchard, Burns, Pouliot, Sheppard
NSH – Legwand, Erat, Tootoo, Hamhuis, Suter, Weber, Rinne, Radulov
They’ve had four top-2 selections with only Kovalchuk & Lehtonen still on their roster. The only team with more than 1 during that time frame?
Pittsburgh – 4 (Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, J. Staal)
Has there been a team with a worse draft history over the past 10 years that’s had picks better than the Thrashers?
by dwillms on Dec 21, 2008 11:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I believe Heatley would still be with the Thrashers, if not for the accident
Essentially on par with what James said in ’05
I may even venture to say the Thrashers appeared to be headed in the right direction, more or less, until that point. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens with Kovalchuk.
I'm a happy seal
by SwisherThresher on Dec 22, 2008 1:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
I have to think even Waddell could have drafted Crosby or Malkin first overall had they been available. Most years a player of that level isn’t available, and 1999 was a lousy year. Given that he’d promised not to pick a Sedin, there was nobody to take in the Stefan draft. AFAIK, the only non-Sedin players from the top 16 that year who are still in the NHL are Tim Connolly (5th) and Taylor Pyatt (8th).
He could have had Ryan Miller (138th), but a couple of other teams passed on him too…
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Dec 22, 2008 7:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Next up: Killing the Colorado Avalanche fan base since 2005
Red Wings Suck
by texacogirl on Dec 21, 2008 11:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Tore up my season tickets
I stopped being a season ticket holder after the Thrashers’ third season. Like The Falconer, I realized I could get tickets cheaper if I wasn’t a STH. That was one reason. The other was the safety nets. My season tickets were behind the nets, and I realized they’d be too much of an annoyance for me to tolerate.
by auxlepli on Dec 25, 2008 11:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I was shattered when the Flames left Atlanta. I can’t honestly say I’ll feel the same way when this group fails. The owners have made a mockery of the sport we all love so much. The Thrashers organization is the laughing stock of the NHL and there’s not a thing the fans, passionate or indifferent, can do about it.
After the lockout, I opted for the cheapest season ticket package available. Everybody thought I’d gone nuts. Now I look like a genius. I pay $10 a game. like my buddy Tom said, “As long as they continue to put a minor league product on the ice, we’ll pay minor league prices.”
by Bongo on Jan 16, 2009 10:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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