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The playoff push: 90+ points or bust

It's certainly shaping up to be a strange season as far as the playoff push is concerned.

If you haven't seen this before, it's a little standings watch I've done the past few years. There's an explanation at the bottom, but essentially what this is is the record teams need through the rest of the regular season to hit the point mark I think will guarantee them a playoff spot.

It's not rocket science, but generally comes within a win or two of the intended target.

This year, with 44.5 per cent of the season completed after last night's games, the teams projected to finish in eighth are on pace for extremely low point totals compared to recent years. Edmonton is currently in that spot in the West and headed for 86.7 points; Buffalo and Carolina are tied in the East and on pace for just 86.4 points.

The average of the six eighth-place teams in three postlockout seasons has been 93.3 points, and it stands to reason that teams that make the playoffs in 2008-09 will pick up the pace as the contenders and also rans are sorted out.

For now, however, I'll go with 90 points as the 'guaranteed' number and raise or lower it as necessary. Keep in mind that a team has not made the playoffs with fewer than 91 points since the introduction of the shootout:

 

Western Conference (90 points)

  1. San Jose - 15-31-0
  2. Detroit - 18-27-1
  3. Chicago - 21-26-1
  4. Calgary - 22-24-0
  5. Anaheim - 24-21-0
  6. Vancouver - 23-20-1
  7. Colorado - 25-20-1
  8. Edmonton - 26-20-1
  9. Phoenix - 25-19-1
  10. Minnesota - 27-20-0
  11. Nashville - 26-19-1
  12. Columbus - 27-19-0
  13. Dallas - 27-19-1
  14. Los Angeles - 27-18-0
  15. St. Louis - 29-15-1

Eastern Conference (90 points)

  1. Boston - 15-30-0
  2. Washington - 19-24-1
  3. Montreal - 21-25-0
  4. New Jersey - 22-24-1
  5. Philadelphia - 21-23-1
  6. NY Rangers - 20-22-1
  7. Pittsburgh - 24-21-0
  8. Carolina - 25-19-1
  9. Buffalo - 25-19-1
  10. Florida - 26-19-1
  11. Toronto - 27-18-0
  12. Ottawa - 29-17-1
  13. Tampa Bay - 30-16-0
  14. Atlanta - 30-14-1
  15. NY Islanders - 32-13-0


All right, so what does this tell us, in general terms? For one, if a team has a record above that is below .500, they need fewer than an 82-point pace over their remaining games to get to 90 points. If a team's record above is above .500, they need more than an 82-point pace to get there.

The Islanders, for example, need to start winning on an 116-point pace over their final 45 games after heading for less than 58 in the first 37 games. They, along with the Blues, Thrashers and Lightning, are all out of the running. 

On the flip side, San Jose and Boston need to play at just a 53- and 55-point pace over the last 55 per cent of the season to get in. Which means they're as good as already in.

Teams that can play under a 75-point pace and still get to 90 points: San Jose, Boston, Detroit, Washington, Chicago, Montreal

Teams that need to play at a 100-point pace or better to get to 90 points: NY Islanders, Atlanta, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Ottawa


What is this?

It's the return of the playoff push. To the chagrin of hockey-stat junkies everywhere, consider this the most basic standings watch you'll see anywhere. (Here's what it looked like last season at the end of the year.)

It's all based on the premise that, if you get 90 to 95 points in the standings, you'll make the playoffs. There's a chance you can sneak in with less, especially in the Eastern Conference, but under the NHL's kooky everybody-gets-a-point system, this is what teams generally need to get in.

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Oh no

Not this again. The past two years I’ve been fixated with this remarkably accurate projection. And those same past two years the Panthers have been eliminated from post-season contention right on track with the “Playoff Push” list.

A great tool, James, but depressingly accurate for some… :(

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Dec 31, 2008 7:58 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I know

Perhaps my favorite addictive Mirtle feature. With the bonus of getting to read things like “The Islanders, for example, need to start winning on an 116-point pace.”

Get my bookie on the phone!

Lighthouse Hockey: an SB Nation New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Amen, Dom!

The Litter Box: Your SBNation Florida Panthers Blogging Colossus

by Donny Rivette on Dec 31, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I knew the Blues had an uphill climb...

but to see it in black and white depresses me even more…numbers don’t lie…lottery here we come!!

by tbell61 on Dec 31, 2008 8:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

At least you have an excuse...

3/4 of your good players either are or were injured for some significant stretch this year. My team (Edmonton) may be in the thick of mediocrity, but frankly, with the roster on paper, they really shouldn’t be.

Go 28th-place PK! 73.6%!

by Doogie2K on Jan 2, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Regardless of the hope or depression engendered ...

It is interesting to see which teams can pretty much maintain what they have been doing, which need to pick it up a little (or impossibly much), and which could pretty much sleep through the rest of the year and still make it into the playoffs.

It reminds me of my obsessive GPA calculations in college. For every class I knew what score I needed on my final exam to pass (or if I basically needed to show up and spell my name correctly) and what score I needed to get a solid A. Working hard early in the semester paid off in not having to beg for extra credit at the end. :)

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Dec 31, 2008 10:07 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

You too, eh?

I remember being ecstatic over an 82 on my biomechanics final because I knew I only needed a 77 to get my first-ever A+, thanks to overachievement in the rest of the semester. I also remember being cheesed that a half-mark on one assignment cost me a letter grade (A- —> B+).

by Doogie2K on Jan 2, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Boston's on a tear

The Bruins have taken on the Patriots,celtics and red sox mentality one game at a time.
Look out for when Patrice Bergeron gets back.

by Red Sox #1 Fan on Jan 2, 2009 11:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

oh yeah … blues completely out of it… lol GO BLUES

by MSUBluenoter on Apr 8, 2009 10:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs


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