Got a bad plus-minus? Blame your goalie

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 5:30 AM CST in Statistics Comment 17 comments

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Rod Brind`Amour	26	7	8	15	-20	12	3	0	1	1	48	14.6

I haven't heard a lot of calls for Rod Brind'Amour to win the Selke this year, for some reason.

The faceoff maestro keeps winning draws, that's for sure, but he has also had an incredible number of goals scored against he and his linemates this season, something that has seen his plus-minus balloon to an NHL-worst minus-22 rating after last night's game.

Digging a bit deeper, however, you can see that Brind'Amour, like many players in his position, really hasn't had all that much help from the crease. Here's a look at the 5-on-5 stats of the 10 players with the worst plus-minuses in the league (prior to Saturday's games):

	NAME	POS	TM	GP	GA/60	SA/60	SV%	+/-
1	R. BRIND'AMOUR	C	CAR	25	4.30	27.8	0.845	-18
2	KRIS DRAPER	RW	DET	25	3.57	27.2	0.869	-12
3	BRAD BOYES	RW	STL	23	4.15	27.8	0.851	-12
4	BRUNO GERVAIS	D	NYI	21	3.29	35.1	0.906	-11
5	CHRIS CAMPOLI	D	NYI	19	3.03	27.9	0.891	-10
6	DMITRI KALININ	D	NYR	26	2.96	26.3	0.887	-10
7	ERIC BREWER	D	STL	23	3.25	25.0	0.870	-10
8	TODD BERTUZZI	LW	CGY	26	3.58	21.8	0.836	-10
9	ANDY MCDONALD	C	STL	15	4.80	27.4	0.825	-10
10	JAMAL MAYERS	RW	TOR	24	4.37	23.1	0.811	-10

Depending on how much stock you put in save percentage in general, you can see a lot of these guys haven't had much luck in terms of their goaltenders making a lot of saves. Only Gervais has had even close to average goaltending behind him, with Brind'Amour, Boyes, Mayers, etc., seeing an awful lot of pucks per shot beat their netminder.

Do you chalk this up to the fact better scoring chances are being given up or is it really just the luck of the draw?

Here's the figures for the players at the other end of the scale, with the best plus-minuses in the league:

	NAME	POS	TM	GP	GA/60	SA/60	SV%	+/-
1	MARC SAVARD	C	BOS	25	1.55	32.5	0.952	15
2	EVGENI MALKIN	C	PIT	25	1.33	24.8	0.946	15
3	ALEX SEMIN	LW	WSH	16	2.20	24.8	0.911	14
4	D. SETOGUCHI	RW	S.J	26	2.41	25.2	0.904	14
5	BLAKE WHEELER	RW	BOS	25	1.52	28.1	0.946	13
6	DAVID KREJCI	C	BOS	25	1.60	29.1	0.945	13
7	ZACH PARISE	LW	N.J	23	1.57	26.9	0.942	13
8	ALEX OVECHKIN	LW	WSH	23	2.14	25.0	0.914	13
9	P. MARLEAU	C	S.J	26	2.43	25.4	0.904	13
10	MILAN LUCIC	LW	BOS	25	1.43	34.1	0.958	12
11	JOE THORNTON	C	S.J	26	1.92	24.4	0.921	12
12	N. ZHERDEV	RW	NYR	26	2.14	24.8	0.914	12
13	SIDNEY CROSBY	C	PIT	25	2.34	25.9	0.910	12

Quite a difference, no? And a lot of players who aren't exactly defensive powerhouses benefiting from some obviously better save percentages.

The average save percentage of players rated plus-7 or better this season is 0.930 while players rated minus-7 or worse is .865. The average save percentage of all plus players in the league is .926 while the average of minus players is .883.

And the correlation between 5-on-5 save percentage and plus-minus? It's about 0.58 for players that have played 15 or more games to this point, an incredibly high number given we're looking at a goaltending stat and comparing it to a metric that relies on goal scoring. (No wonder it's considered more of a 'team stat'.)

Just a little bit more of a reason to junk it altogether.

For interest's sake, here's a look at players who have had the best and worst on-ice save percentages this season (minimum 15 games played):

Best

	NAME	POS	TM	GP	GA/60	SA/60	SV%	+/-
1	SHEAN DONOVAN	RW	OTT	21	0.39	28.5	0.986	6
2	RYAN CARTER	C	ANA	16	0.43	26.3	0.984	6
3	GEORGE PARROS	RW	ANA	23	0.44	26.8	0.984	7
4	BRAD MAY	LW	ANA	17	0.55	31.5	0.983	5
5	D. BOOGAARD	LW	MIN	23	0.57	29.5	0.981	4
6	MANNY MALHOTRA	C	CBJ	20	0.54	20.6	0.974	8
7	P. BERGLUND	C	STL	18	0.83	26.7	0.969	11
8	BENOIT POULIOT	LW	MIN	25	1.02	31.6	0.968	4
9	D. HORDICHUK	LW	VAN	23	0.90	27.4	0.967	3
10	A. FERENCE	D	BOS	16	0.90	27.3	0.967	8

Worst

	NAME	POS	TM	GP	GA/60	SA/60	SV%	+/-
1	RYAN HOLLWEG	C	TOR	15	5.58	22.9	0.756	-7
2	D. ARMSTRONG	C	L.A	16	4.41	20.7	0.787	-8
3	JAMES NEAL	LW	DAL	21	4.24	21.4	0.802	-7
4	JOE SAKIC	C	COL	15	4.68	23.7	0.803	-7
5	MATT NISKANEN	D	DAL	24	4.18	21.6	0.806	-5
6	RICH PEVERLEY	C	NSH	15	4.59	23.9	0.808	-4
7	JAMAL MAYERS	RW	TOR	24	4.37	23.1	0.811	-10
8	JOSEF MELICHAR	D	CAR	15	4.07	21.9	0.814	-1
9	PETR VRANA	C	N.J	16	4.14	22.5	0.816	-4
10	P. HORNQVIST	LW	NSH	15	4.25	23.8	0.821	-1

Maybe Brind'Amour hasn't been a defensive dynamo this season, but given he's 18th worst in the league in save percentage when he's out there, can you really blame it all on him? And how impressive is someone like Lucic's plus-12 when his netminder is facing far more shots when he's on the ice (but still stopping most of them)?

UPDATE Tyler Dellow has a more in-depth look at this over at his blog.

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Comments

10 worst +/- ratings

“Only Gervais has had even close to average goaltending behind him, with Brind’Amour, Boyes, Mayers, etc., seeing an awful lot of pucks per shot beat their netminder.”

With that said, we should then look at how Dmitri Kalinin of the Rangers ended up on this list. His netminder Henrik Lundqvist is first in the NHL in wins and saves while being 13th in GAA and save percentage. He’s also faced more shots than any goalie in the league, and due to shoddy defense from the likes of Kalinin Lundqvist pretty much has to be the best player on the ice for his team to win. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been off to a good start either.

Henrik is a bit of an exception to your statement about mediocre goaltending being a substantial contributor to poor +/- ratings, no? And his play has been so good that he’s been covering up for a soft and turnover-prone defense all year long. And the secret here is that all the Sabres fans who were happy to see Kalinin leave Buffalo were all correct in their assessments of his game: the guy is not that good…..

Prole art threat.

by greifi griffie on Dec 7, 2008 6:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ain't that the truth...

As a Sabres fan, I got a good laugh when I saw Kalinin on that list. He’s truly garbage.

Overall though James, this is something I’ve never thought of. Fascinating, and overall, I think there’s a good correlation. But in the end, of course on a bad team (NYI, STL) odds are your +/- will be bad simply because your team is. And a bad team usually starts with a bad goalie. Makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?

by Afino on Dec 7, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

After 27 games, now Brind’Amour is -22. Ouch.

It’s not all his fault, but he has lost a step or two and does not seem like the Brind’Amour of old. (pre-knee surgery)

by Robert McGee on Dec 7, 2008 10:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Makes Alex Semin’s +/- look all the better, as the Caps’ goaltending has been tres average.

Modern Art Notes

by TylerG on Dec 7, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think a more accurate assessment would be to take a look at the Quality of Shots F/A per 60 while those players are on the ice. Sure, the SV% is low, but maybe that’s because those players are letting the opposition skate around, over, and through them on their way to ridiculously high percentage shots that very few goalies in the league would stop to begin with.

To the contrary, and I’ll deal with my team, the Caps, players like Ovie and Semin are puck possession type offensive players. If the other team doesn’t have the puck, they can’t score with it, and if you’re forcing them to rush shots and not get very deep in the zone for fear of a counter-attack by the Alexes, the Quality of Shots taken is going to be much lower and make the goalies look better.

Although +/- is a fairly hit or miss stat to begin with, I don’t think the correlation between SV% and +/- can be quite that straightforward.

by wittcap79 on Dec 7, 2008 1:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I honestly haven’t seen a shot quality measure that’s widely adopted anywhere. I guess what I’m saying in this post is that goaltending plays a role in a players’ plus-minus, even if shot quality is altered based on who’s on the ice.

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Are the plus minus because of the goalie or the SV% because of the plus minus.

by Mogen_david on Dec 7, 2008 1:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We need Keanu Reeves to figure this one out.

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t necessarily think that that’s the case. We just need a few more years of data to get a sense as to whether certain players can sustain it. Having taken a look at the first half data from last year versus the second half data, I’ve got serious doubts.

by mc79hockey on Dec 7, 2008 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I should have referenced your post on PDO numbers. Basically you’re saying that anyone that’s way outside of the average save percentage is going to come back down to earth at some point?

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that’s pretty much my thoughts James. I just don’t see that players have such a significant impact on the save percentage numbers.

by mc79hockey on Dec 7, 2008 1:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think some of the names on the “best save percentages” list prove that.

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So now it’s the goalie’s fault the guys in front of him have bad +/-.
Phhht.

Doesn’t Brindamour play in front of the same goalie that Eric Staal (+8) does?
The next worst +/- on the Hurricanes is Whitney at -10. In total, 13 Hurricanes are -1 or better. Maybe Brindamour can’t pivot because of the knee surgery. Either shut it down or retire already.

Kris Draper is what, 58 years old? Maybe age has more to do with his horrible +/- than what Osgood and Conkin are doing. Twelve Red Wings are -1 or better.

Boyes, Bertuzzi, McDonald. All horrible lifetime minuses. Nobody would ever confuse these players with guys who backcheck. Even Turk Broda couldn’t rehabilitate their +/-.

The +/- might not be perfect, but all you have to do is take a glance at a team to thumbnail it a little better. If a guy is double-digit minus on a team of pluses, he blows.

No need to twist it into GF+/- divided by GA+/- X uniform number divided by GAA X Sv percentage.

by Dr Van Nostrum on Dec 7, 2008 1:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The team’s save percentage with Staal on the ice at even strength is .945. What I’m talking about here is that goaltending isn’t exactly constant and that part of the problem in assessing via plus-minus is some players will be be burned more than others.

No one’s saying Brind’Amour’s had a great season.

by James Mirtle on Dec 7, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not that there's much point in responding to the first commenter...

because when a guy suggests that what you’re doing here involves uniform numbers, he just doesn’t have an open mind, but last year Brind’Amour was at .918 and Staal at .945.

by mc79hockey on Dec 7, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Staal was at .911 last year. Calisse.

by mc79hockey on Dec 7, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there are obviously various factors that come into play in determining the save percentage behind players. By comparing two players from last night, Brind’Amour and Setoguchi, I think you can discern at least two.

Quality of opposition: From last night’s game, Setoguchi and Thornton were repeatedly matched against Edmonton’s kid line. Brind’Amour has for a few seasons at least been matched against fairly good quality opposition. A pretty general point, given that better opposition is likely to have a better shooting percentage.

Offensive vs Defensive zone faceoffs: Looking at Thornton’s faceoffs last night, essentially none in the defensive zone, with a lion’s share in the offensive zone. I think this is a fairly important criterion, at least for within team comparisons. Alternatively, Brind’Amour took the majority of defensive zone draws for his team last night. If you’re starting in the defensive end more frequently you’re on average going to have the other team taking possession and being setup in your zone 50% of the time. Better offensive chances? I think it’s possible.

by jon k on Dec 7, 2008 2:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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