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Comparing 5-on-4 to 5-on-3

Gabe Desjardins takes a look at how much more likely teams are to score on a two-man advantage compared to the regular old 5-on-4 situation:

Pp_5v3v4-757492_medium

The conclusion? 5-on-3s are goal bonanzas.

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5-on-3s are goal bonanzas

Except when you’re Pittsburgh last night.

How does a team loaded like that not score on a full 5-on-3? They did score on one earlier in the game, but the first penalty had only 3 or 4 seconds left.

by Afino on Dec 9, 2008 12:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You beat me to it. I was just about the say the same. The game against Buffalo was ridiculous…

Follow the Penguins on SBN @ Pensburgh.com

by FrankD on Dec 9, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Could you please describe the dimension of your x-axis? I bet it’s seconds, but it’s a thing I (and all other nerds) have, that it should be properly adressed.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 9, 2008 1:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Like misspelling addressed….

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 9, 2008 1:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Follow the link my friend. Follow the link.

by James Mirtle on Dec 9, 2008 1:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, then I should complain to Hawerchuk.

Hawerchuk, if you read this, get your geekfacts sorted.

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 9, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It has all of the info right in his post.

by James Mirtle on Dec 9, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I know, but that doesn’t matter when it comes to graphs and (scientific) articles.

But I’m hating, I like his post and I like your post too! Keep up the great work!

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Dec 9, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There was a game earlier in the year when Carlyle was given a choice by the referees of how he wanted to serve a weird string of penalties. He had the choice of killing two minutes of 5-on-3, or four minutes of 5-on-4.

Carlyle opted for the latter, and it was killed off (I believe the Kings took a minor in the middle of the four minutes), and now it seems that the choice was more than justified. Apparently four minutes of 5-on-4 looks somewhat equivalent to 80 seconds of 5-on-3 (though I’m just eyeballing).

Nicely done, Gabe.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Dec 9, 2008 1:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not for the Leafs

I think we’ve only got one.

Sports And The City

A Toronto sports blog, where we unequivocally and unapologetically support the home team...

by eyebleaf on Dec 9, 2008 1:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

1-17

The Leafs are bringing down that part of the chart.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Dec 9, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, if you look at it the other way, at least the Leafs are first in something.

by bkblades on Dec 9, 2008 4:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait… 5-on-3’s lead to more scoring?! What if we allowed 5-on-2’s?!

Signed,

Li’l Gary

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Dec 9, 2008 1:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Also: the sun is hot.

by Dr Van Nostrum on Dec 9, 2008 4:35 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Unless you are the New York Rangers, with their power play you really have to worry about being scored on four defenders or three …

I have a blog too! www.scottyhockey.com
Let's Go Rangers!

by Scotty Hockey on Dec 9, 2008 4:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It averages out

I would say that your average 5-3 is just under a minute. Let’s say it’s 45 seconds to 60 seconds. That’s the duration of the two-man advantage.

So it makes sense to say that for the duration of an average 5-3, your chances of scoring are a little less to a little more than the duration of a regular power play. So in reality, when the advantage expires, there isn’t really a greater probability of scoring. On average.

Make sense? Obviously the numbers get skewed when the 5-3 extends past a minute, which makes sense as well.

by Brad Lee on Dec 9, 2008 4:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Gabe,

I’m new here, but have come to appreciate your contributions.

Can we spin this a different way? Can your data be used to calculate the record for teams that successfully kill a 5 on 3 disadvantage?

by cubanpuckstopper on Dec 11, 2008 8:01 AM CST reply actions   0 recs


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