The Penguins' fall

by James Mirtle on Jan 11, 2009 10:30 AM CST Comment 22 comments

The past month and a half has been a complete disaster for the Penguins. Stanley Cup finalists seven months ago and easily the second best team in the NHL through the 2008 playoffs, Pittsburgh is 1-7-0 in its past eight games and has only six wins since Nov. 29 (6-13-1).

So, yes, it is worse than you've heard to this point. On pace for only 84 points, 18 fewer than last season, they're at least six off the pace needed to make the playoffs.

What happened?

No Sergei Gonchar. He has the reputation of an offence-first defenceman, but Gonchar was one of the top three blueliners in the NHL last season and played four more minutes a game than any other Penguin during their playoff run. He plays in all situations and does it well.
Goaltending gone bad. Pittsburgh's team save percentage has fallen from .916 (fourth in the NHL) to .898 (tied for 24th). Next to Dallas, that is worst year-to-year drop in the league. (Meanwhile, the departed Ty Conklin and his .918 are on the verge of taking over the No. 1 role with the Red Wings.)
Too much ice time for youngsters.

Below is a look at Penguins who averaged 13 minutes or more a game in the 2008 playoffs and so far this season. The ranking is based on total ice time, so players who missed games due to injury are lower:

		2008 playoffs			2008-09
	Player	TOI/G	Rk	Player	TOI/G	Rk
1	Sergei Gonchar	25:12	1	Injured
2	Marian Hossa	20:59	2	Left as free agent
3	Evgeni Malkin	20:47	3	Evgeni Malkin	22:36	1
4	Brooks Orpik	20:47	4	Brooks Orpik	20:43	3
5	Ryan Whitney	20:46	5	Ryan Whitney	24:46	19
6	Sidney Crosby	20:41	6	Sidney Crosby	22:12	2
7	Hal Gill	19:17	7	Hal Gill	18:27	16
8	Rob Scuderi	19:02	8	Rob Scuderi	19:48	5
9	Ryan Malone	18:42	9	Left as free agent
10	Jordan Staal	18:15	10	Jordan Staal	20:26	4
11	Pascal Dupuis	16:13	11	Pascal Dupuis	14:52	13
12	Petr Sykora	14:56	12	Petr Sykora	15:54	10
13	Kris Letang	17:06	13	Kris Letang	21:27	6
14	Maxime Talbot	14:27	14	Maxime Talbot	14:49	11
15				Philippe Boucher	20:20	9
16				Alex Goligoski	18:28	7
17				Mark Eaton	16:52	12
18				Miroslav Satan	16:44	8
19				Tyler Kennedy	14:44	17
20				R. Fedotenko	13:52	14
21				Matt Cooke	13:15	15

Gonchar and Hossa haven't played a minute for the Penguins this year, so there goes your top two minute munchers. Ryan Malone was ninth in team ice time, fifth among forwards, and he's gone, too. Ryan Whitney, right among the leaders in ice time, has played only 10 games due to injury.

Malkin is playing two more minutes a game, Crosby is playing a minute and a half more, Orpik is the top minute-getting defenceman instead of being tied for second, and Hal Gill has missed enough games to drop him from seventh to 16th in total ice time.

Staal's playing more than two minutes more a game (going from 10th to fourth in ice time), Sykora's up a minute a game, Letang is up four and a half minutes (13th to sixth) and there are a slew of newcomers playing 13 or more minutes a game: Boucher, Goligoski, Eaton, Satan, Kennedy, Fedotenko and Cooke.

The numbers aren't pretty. Talbot is last on the team in goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, followed by Letang, Cooke and Orpik.

Goligoski's emergence has been a life saver, but they haven't used him in any difficult defensive minutes and the power play is wallowing at 19th in the NHL after being one of the league's best last season. Missing Gonchar and Malone hurts when up a man.

In short, they're bad for all sorts of reasons — and most were pretty predictable after injuries hit the blueline in August and September.

Last spring, when the Penguins were the talk of the town, I was on quite a few radio shows in Pittsburgh to talk about the team. (Due in large part to sites like The Pensblog and Empty Netters, this blog gets a ton of traffic from the area. It's No. 2 to only New York among American cities.)

My last stint on the air was on KDKA's Black & Gold Sunday as part of a season wrap, a week or so after the Penguins had been eliminated, and I remember being asked about the team's chances in terms of repeating their run in 2008-09. I said that, with all of the roster turnover coming and the way the NHL works, there was very little guarantee they'd even be a contender again.

You could hear their heads spinning from Toronto.

This is the runner-up curse (if you believe in those sorts of things). Gonchar's the Penguins' white knight — and who knows if he gets back in time. Marc-Andre Fleury also needs to be a whole lot better.

I think they still make the playoffs, but only just, and likely in a spot where they'll have a date with a powerhouse in Round 1.

How quickly things change.

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Comments

for whatever reason, Therrien doesn’t see the upside in Goligoski and has had him playing wing or watching from the press box this past week.

replacing Hossa, Malone, Conklin, Laraque, etc. with the likes of Fedotenko, Satan, Sabourin and Godard was a recipe for the bridesmaid curse.

by GoingFiveHole on Jan 11, 2009 10:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Malkin's line and the powerplay

Huge factors last year in the regular season (you don’t get the points in the standings and then the playoff position that lets the Flyers dispose of the Caps and the Canadiens without the regular season wins) were the success of Malkin – Sykora – Malone (both even strength and powerplay) especially with Crosby and Fleury out, and the superstar season of Gonchar at even strength, on PK, and especially on the powerplay. Malone was the binder in the recipe for Malkin’s line and Gonchar — well, what can you say but HUGE. With those two gone and not even close to being replaced — who is surprised with the Pens season? Not me.

by Bob Roberts on Jan 11, 2009 11:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

(Meanwhile, the departed Ty Conklin and his .918 are on the verge of taking over the No. 1 role with the Red Wings.)

Ouch.

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by Donny Rivette on Jan 11, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

-Not having Gonchar is killing us.

-Not having Whitney was killing us, now having Whitney is killing us. I don’t care how many times Steigerwald and Errey (Pens’ TV guys for those who don’t know!) try to tell us how sharp Whitney’s looked, he’s been cover-your-eyes awful. He’s missing pinches like it’s going out of style and horrifyingly slow to react to offensive opportunities.

-This “Pascal Dupuis is a good left winger for Crosby” crap needs to stop, too. I’ve never seen a player fail to capitalize on what somebody else creates as often as Dupuis does. He’s a good third liner and penalty killer. Not a scoring winger.

-We weren’t as good as 2007-08 ended up being, and we aren’t as bad as this current bad streak, either. There have been significant stretches during this streak that we’ve utterly dominated play, but the puck has not bounced our way. Then the other team catches a lucky break and a bounce and now we’re playing catch-up. The power play hasn’t looked awful all the time, but the results certainly have. There have been quite a few PPs where the Penguins had everything go their way except a puck bounce or a deflection or a standing-on-his-head save.

-The panic-mode line juggling Therien has engaged in doesn’t help. Burying Satan on the 4th line with Eric Godard and Dustin Jeffrey doesn’t help, taking Sykora off the top power play unit doesn’t help, the aforementioned Dupuis problem doesn’t help, giving Crosby two new linemates every other game doesn’t help, the inane obsession with giving Rob Scuderi and Hal Gill (I don’t know that I’ve seen two players more unable to handle a puck than those two) mountains of ice time while Alex Goligoski watches from the press box doesn’t help.

-Fleury’s injury really helped begin this slide by forcing Dany Sabourin, a capable backup but one who will never be mistaken for a starting goaltender, to play too much. And Fleury has not looked particularly sharp since he returned.

-All that said, I’m not panicking yet!

by matskralc on Jan 11, 2009 1:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

People have been giving it to Crosby lately, but he’s third in league scoring with possibly the least amount of help any star’s getting in the league. Malkin at least has Sykora to play with.

And a ton of teams underrate backup goaltending these days. They really should have kept Conklin and waived Sabourin.

by James Mirtle on Jan 11, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why DID they lose Conklin?

Was there some story behind it? I don’t remember hearing any rumours about dissent, he played very well for them so it isn’t as though the fans ran him out of town, he seems a low-key, level-headed guy so I can’t see a turf battle with Fleury, and he wasn’t very expensive at all for Detroit to sign. Did he want to leave, or did Pittsburgh want someone else as the backup?

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Jan 11, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It was easy

They had Sabourin already signed through this season to a one way deal, and Conklin was a free agent. It was the easiest move to make to let Conklin walk… re-signing Conklin would’ve created a 3 goalie problem, and I guess Shero and company didn’t want to open up that can of worms. Fleury was his man, and the backup isn’t an issue worth the bother.

Meanwhile, Conklin is just trying to find the position that would get him the best chance at starting, either this year or next.

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by saskhab on Jan 11, 2009 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

I was unaware of the Sabourin contract. It makes sense – but it sure looks like a bad move now. Still, if Fleury was playing often and well it wouldn’t be as much of an issue, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a Merry Christmas.

It is odd that teams don’t put a lot more thought into backup goaltenders. They usually put a lot of thought into keeping enough depth around in forwards and defensemen, but figure if they get the best possible goaltender and he’s healthy the whole season they will be fine.

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Jan 11, 2009 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Crosby’s spent most of his time between Satan (who hasn’t been nearly as bad as the yinzers who thought they were getting Marian Hossa Part II think he’s been) and Dupuis (who IS as bad as the yinzers think Satan’s been). Therien has, at times, tried Sykora, Max Talbot, Tyler Kennedy, Ruslan Fedotenko, and most recently Jordan Staal next to him. He’s tried just putting Sid on a line with Malkin and Sykora, which typically works out great but leaves us with only one productive line. Malkin, meanwhile, has spent most of the season between Sykora and Fedotenko.

This must be what it was like to watch Lemieux lug around a bunch of deadweight on the ice in the mid 80s.

It’s easy to look back on losing Conklin as being the wrong call, but when he left it didn’t generate much consternation. Sabourin had performed OK when Fleury went down last year, it was just that Conklin played out of his freaking mind and put Sabourin back on the bench (or in the runway, as it were). Add in the contract situation, as explained by saskhab below, and it was almost a no-brainer.

I think it’s becoming clear, however, that Fleury is somewhat lacking in durability, and the Pens would be wide to keep a quality backup around. A team with an iron goaltender can hide a Sabourin, but whoever is backing up the Penguins in net the next few years will probably see a lot more ice time than most.

by matskralc on Jan 11, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s easy to look back on losing Conklin as being the wrong call, but when he left it didn’t generate much consternation.

I know I took him in all of my pools this year. He proved he was NHL calibre last year, and Sabourin never has.

I was also pretty leery of that deal they gave Fleury. It looks worse now.

by James Mirtle on Jan 11, 2009 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, definitely. I don’t particularly mean to defend the decision to let Conklin walk. I think he definitely earned a starting job somewhere, and if I played any sort of fantasy hockey, I would have been all over him, too.

It’s important to keep in mind, though, that just because the Wings got him for $750K, that doesn’t meant the Penguins would have. He had zero chance to start in Pittsburgh this season (excepting Fleury’s yearly injury). He did have a greater-than-zero chance of taking a starting job away from an uninspiring goaltender on the best team in the league. He may not have had any interest at all in returning to the Penguins, certainly not at a price that the Penguins would have had to pay him to be a backup goaltender (which would have been more than that $750K, I guarantee it) when they’re already bumping up against the cap.

by matskralc on Jan 11, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Offer him $900k to stay put. I bet he would have taken it.

by James Mirtle on Jan 11, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We tried that theory with Hossa. Didn’t work out too well.

by matskralc on Jan 12, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty different numbers/players involved, no?

by James Mirtle on Jan 12, 2009 4:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was a bit upset to see Conklin go, but if Fleury’s performance during the playoffs was any indication of what he was capable of there wasn’t really much concern for a backup. And then Fleury goes down again this season and Sabourin gets the reigns. If I’m not mistaken he went a perfect .500 during that span only to have Fleury come back and look a bit lost in net. I wasn’t against the Fleury signing but in hindsight I really wish Conklin was around…

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by FrankD on Jan 12, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Therrien's fault?

James,

I noted you didn’t include Therrien as a major impact on the fall from grace. Here in Pittsburgh, there’s a lot of clamoring for his head.

How much blame does a head coach deserve, and what are the odds he’ll end up a scapegoat?

by agreatdayforhockey on Jan 11, 2009 4:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think Therrien’s as much to blame as many others do, but I also don’t think he’s one of the top coaches in the league (by any means). There are a couple of players I think should be used in different roles, but for the most part, Therrien’s hands are tied. He can’t get another goaltender, he can’t heal Gonchar and he can’t summon capable talents to put alongside both Malkin and Crosby.

If they keep losing, the Pens will can the coach. That’s the way it goes in this league.

by James Mirtle on Jan 11, 2009 6:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree James that Therrien’s hands are largely tied and that he’s probably taking too much heat in some corners from the restless. On the other hand, Therrien’s made several critical mistakes in my opinion:

—He relies too much on Phillipe Boucher and Mark Eaton, two players that are commonly on the ice when goals are scored against (especially on the power-play). In the past 4 games Goligoski’s been scratched three times and used as a forward once. That’s inexcusable.

—Chris Minard has 26 goals in 30 AHL games, but when he is re-called he almost always gets 8 minutes a night, usually with linemates like Eric Godard and Talbot.

—None of his frequent, frequent line changes have generated much results so even 40 games into the season there doesn’t seem like a lot of continuity or chemistry is around.

Up until before this season, Therrien’s had his finger right on the button and seemingly his hunches just haven’t paid off.

I don’t believe that the team has turned on him or anything but a new voice and new direction seems needed to shake the foundation and salvage the season.

by Hooks Orpik on Jan 11, 2009 9:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What the Penguins are doing with Crosby reminds me of what Toronto would do with Sundin: in order to have some balance with your offensive lines, let’s play whatever dead weight or recent AHL callups we have with him – since he’s so good he can carry them – and play the better wingers on the 2nd and 3rd line. Of course the media may criticize him for not doing enough but hey, beats adding a legitimate winger to his line, right?
Dupuis has no business being on his line. None. If Therrien can’t recognize that, he has more issues than just the team quitting on him.
Staal should be up there, sure. A 4M third liner? No way. Leave him up there for 10 games or so on a regular shift and see what happens.
The Crosby/Sundin comparison was also put out there as a reminder that maybe even the new boss is same as the old boss. Just guessin’.

by Larsen on Jan 11, 2009 4:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Team Development Not Always a Straight Line

People tend to assume that a young club like the Penguins will show steady and progressive improvement from one season to the next, but in reality improvement tends to come in fits and starts. Often teams make big jumps forward and then plateau of stagnate and then take another step forward.

Pittsburgh likely over achieved in reaching the Finals so quickly. Frankly, I’m very impressed that they started off the season as well as they did while both Gonchar and Whitney were out. I expected them to only be around the 8-9th spot until those two guys came back. It seems to me that they had a lot of roster turnover for a Finals participant.

by The Falconer on Jan 12, 2009 6:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The whole roster aspect was one of the risks worth taking and probably what motivated Shero to go for Hossa at the deadline. He knew that, come July, the roster would be shaken up with all of those contracts expiring and such. It was a go hard or go home move that many people agreed with, myself included.

Even now there are little things that spark up during games. Fans miss guys like Laraque, continue to laugh at Ruutu (only in a different perspective) and wish Conklin was on the bench. But when you think of all those guys and how much it would’ve cost to keep them, while also making moves to lock up Malkin, Fleury, Orpik and more recently Staal, it just doesn’t seem feasible.

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by FrankD on Jan 12, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Real Nice

The big news tonight (vs Flyers) is that Matt Cooke is getting moved up due to Dupuis’ injury. No, not moved up to the 3rd or 2nd line but the FIRST! Awesome!
This team’s a joke. Despite Gonchar’s injury, a team with Fleury, Staal, Malkin and Crosby is supposed to be battling it out for a top playoff spot, no? Not battling to make the playoffs. Bunch of skirts.

by Larsen on Jan 13, 2009 6:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs