Let’s say the decision has been made not to resign him. Who has the $ and desire to trade for him, do you think? Or will he stay with the Wild and become a free agent?

Who might want Backstrom?

I haven’t looked at the salary numbers, but I could see the Wings going for him, if hes available relatively cheaply, and the money works. He’s been pretty consistent, and he’s certainly used to playing in a system wherein he gets highly sheltered from shots.

So far this year, Ozzie has been AWFUL, and Conklin had a real bad start, and while he’s been better lately, he’s been inconsistent overall. The only thing that could trip this Wings team up is poor goaltending, and they’re really riding the line. If either can be sent to the minors or waived, do it to one of them (Ozzie deserves it more) to free up the money, and then get Backstrom. This team needs goaltending help, and a 90 day rental would be perfect.

I think the thepory here is that the Minnesota wild defensive system pads goalie stats. Few high quality shots lead to low GAAs and high saves percentages. Thus Backstrom is not as good as his current numbers would indicate. Therefore, he would be overpaid if he signs a new contract based upon those numbers.

We may get to see that theory in action if Minnesota does let Backstrom go.

Backstrom is making 3.1M this season. The Red Wings have 377K in cap space right now. That is with Conklin making 750K, and Ozzie making 1.4M. At the time that Backstrom would be acquired (trade deadline is March 4), he would have played 62 games out of 82. He’d have another 20 games of pay coming. 20/82 = 24.39% of the season, so he would have 24.39% of his contract left, which at 3.1 million, works out to about 756K for the remainder of the year and playoffs.

In this situation, the Wings would need to shed either Conklin or Ozzie, as they wouldn’t hold three goalies up in the normal lineup. I’m not sure what all options they have, but it seems that if they could do something with those two, that this could work out.

Couple things…

1) Shot quality metrics, while far from perfect, do seem to point towards the fact that Minnesota suppresses their opponents’ shot quality. However, Minnesota’s other defensive numbers are a little strange for a supposed Jacques Lemaire defensive juggernaut. For example, they’ve been averaging a pretty crappy 29-30 shots against per 60 minutes at ES over the past couple seasons. Compare that to the Devils in their prime giving up like 22-23 shots a game total. I realize it was a different “era”, but still, hard to say the Wild are completely choking off teams in the neutral zone when they’re giving up six more shots a game than the San Jose’s of the world.

2) While you give total save percentage numbers for the above goalies, it’d be nice to see it broken down by game state (i.e. – ES, PP, PK). If I remember correctly, Minnesota is perennially amongst the leaders in lowest PK minutes, which aides a goalie’s total save percentage. It’d be nice to compare apples to apples with regards to Backstrom.

3) We’re still only talking about a sample size of a few years here. It’s certainly possible that the Wild have actually just had good goaltenders, as opposed to the save percentage being completely team driven. Again, it does certainly seem as though Minnesota stifles shot quality, but I find it strange that they give up so many shots, get outshot at ES, and the goaltender isn’t in good part responsible for bailing them out.

All in all though, I probably agree with you that $7M is a waste of money on Backstrom. While I think it’s certainly possible he’s better than average, the Wild can pay a LOT less for an average goalie without affecting their GA in too detrimental a way. And they can use the money to get desperately needed offense, which I think would have a net positive gain on their overall goal differential.

good article, btw