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High-event players

I remember a few weeks back, I was chatting with blogger Matt Fenwick about Mark Giordano, the Flames offensive defenceman. I said something about how many goals against he'd been on the ice for to that point, and Fenwick countered that he'd also been on for plenty of goals for.

"He's a high-event player," he said.

No kidding. An event can mean a shot on goal, or a blocked shot, or whatever, depending on the context, but for these purposes, I'll consider only goals as the "events." Giordano's a good example of a high-event player in this context because, at even strength, he's been on the ice for 6.37 goals per 60 minutes.

When he's not on the ice, the Flames see only 5.27 goals per 60 minutes

Among players who have played at least 20 games this season, here are the NHL's top ranked high-event players:

NAME TEAM GP GFON/60 GAON/60 Events
1 ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY TOR 40 4.16 3.55 7.71
2 MATT STAJAN TOR 34 3.69 3.98 7.67
3 NIK ANTROPOV TOR 40 3.66 3.78 7.44
4 CRAIG CONROY CGY 40 3.58 3.58 7.16
5 MATT NISKANEN DAL 36 3.18 3.97 7.15
6 BRAD RICHARDS DAL 37 2.97 4.16 7.13
7 BRYAN LITTLE ATL 40 3.73 3.36 7.09
8 ENVER LISIN PHX 23 2.52 4.57 7.09
9 MIKE COMRIE NYI 24 2.79 4.10 6.89
10 DEVIN SETOGUCHI S.J 38 4.13 2.71 6.84
11 DAVID HALE PHX 23 2.86 3.96 6.82
12 PAVEL DATSYUK DET 39 4.44 2.34 6.78
13 JIRI HUDLER DET 39 3.97 2.80 6.77
14 DAVID MOSS CGY 40 3.27 3.42 6.69
15 ANDREI KOSTITSYN MTL 31 3.84 2.84 6.68
16 FABIAN BRUNNSTROM DAL 31 2.50 4.17 6.67
17 SAKU KOIVU MTL 26 3.83 2.82 6.65
18 LOUI ERIKSSON DAL 38 3.32 3.32 6.64
19 TODD WHITE ATL 41 3.19 3.43 6.62
20 DERICK BRASSARD CBJ 31 4.59 2.02 6.61
21 ALEXANDER SEMIN WSH 23 5.11 1.49 6.60
22 KRISTOPHER LETANG PIT 37 3.09 3.50 6.59
23 DION PHANEUF CGY 40 2.96 3.55 6.51
24 PATRICK MARLEAU S.J 39 3.94 2.55 6.49
25 DAN HINOTE STL 21 2.05 4.44 6.49

 

Now, looking at the list, obviously you can be a high-event player in both a good and a bad way. The Leafs' top line, for example, scores a ton but also has a ton of goals going in its own net, something that cancels out the effect of all that scoring punch.

Players like Pavel Datsyuk or Alex Semin, meanwhile, are only high-event players because they're helping produce so much offence. Enver Lisin and Fabian Brunnstrom are simply watching their net get filled.

(That Dan Hinote is playing against weak opposition and getting outscored 2-to-1 doesn't bode well for his NHL career.)

A high-event player's not a good or a bad thing: It's just a thing. But it is interesting to note which players are on the ice when the highest percentage of goals are being scored.

If we pull a player's team out of the equation, and measure the difference in the number of events when certain players are out there, we get a bit of a different list:

NAME TEAM GP ON Evt OFF Evt Diff
1 DEVIN SETOGUCHI S.J 38 6.84 3.65 3.19
2 SAKU KOIVU MTL 26 6.65 3.55 3.10
3 ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY TOR 40 7.71 4.75 2.96
4 JASON ARNOTT NSH 36 6.31 3.39 2.92
5 ANDREI KOSTITSYN MTL 31 6.68 3.78 2.90
6 PATRICK MARLEAU S.J 39 6.49 3.74 2.75
7 ALEXANDER SEMIN WSH 23 6.60 3.88 2.72
8 MATTIAS OHLUND VAN 40 6.30 3.64 2.66
9 NIK ANTROPOV TOR 40 7.44 4.81 2.63
10 MATT STAJAN TOR 34 7.67 5.06 2.61
11 DAVID HALE PHX 23 6.82 4.23 2.59
12 ANZE KOPITAR L.A  39 6.04 3.45 2.59
13 JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT NSH 39 6.48 3.92 2.56
14 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV NYR 38 6.33 3.78 2.55
15 TOM GILBERT EDM 37 6.17 3.75 2.42
16 DUSTIN BROWN L.A 39 5.93 3.53 2.40
17 DANIEL ALFREDSSON OTT 37 5.98 3.64 2.34
18 KRISTOPHER LETANG PIT 37 6.59 4.25 2.34
19 BRYAN LITTLE ATL 40 7.09 4.8 2.29
20 BOBBY RYAN ANA 22 5.72 3.47 2.25
21 PAVEL DATSYUK DET 39 6.78 4.54 2.24
22 ENVER LISIN PHX 23 7.09 4.86 2.23
23 JASON SPEZZA OTT 38 5.81 3.62 2.19
24 CRAIG CONROY CGY 40 7.16 5.01 2.15
25 DERICK BRASSARD CBJ 31 6.61 4.47 2.14

 

Again, this doesn't tell us necessarily the good or bad news, but it highlights just how drastically different the game is when these players are on the ice. When Setoguchi's on the ice, for example, the Sharks score and get scored on at a rate that's almost double than when he's on the bench.

If you're watching a game between teams you don't normally watch, this is a good bit of wisdom as to when the goals go in. You are twice as likely to see a goal with Stajan out there, for instance, than Teemu Selanne this season.

Who are the low-event players of the league? Goons, mostly, (Brashear, Orr, Ivanans, Cote, etc.) although there are some checkers (Donovan, Maltby, Holik, Axelsson, etc.) and defensive defenders (Volchenkov) down below 3.5 goals per 60 minutes, too. When they're on the ice, head to the beer fridge.

An assist to Behind The Net for the data, as always.

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Meet the YoungStars

Jan 2009 by James Mirtle - 12 comments

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That Ponikarovsky is awesome.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Jan 8, 2009 8:44 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not that it’s saying much, but Poni is one of the most under-rated players on the Leafs. At some point people are going to start to look at the numbers and wonder why Antropov is considered a borderline star and Poni isn’t. We’re going to wake up one morning in late March and find out Poni has 30 goals this year.

Down Goes Brown - Unapologetically nostalgic for the past. Brutally realistic about the present. Grudgingly optimistic about the future.

by Down Goes Brown on Jan 8, 2009 9:34 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, I’ve always considered them two sides to the same coin of awesomeness.

We’re going to wake up one morning in late March and find out Poni has 30 goals this year.

And if most have their way next year we’ll be wondering if prospect the Leafs get for him can develop into a Poni-like player

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Jan 8, 2009 10:40 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Of all the stat breakdowns you’ve done, this is a big favourite of mine.

Don't be afraid to take a few steps back, but you better keep moving forward.

by wlittle on Jan 8, 2009 8:51 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh. I’ve had that feeling about Letang for a while now, but it’s good to see that it wasn’t just my insanity talking.

Pittsburgh Black And Gold -- So new, it still smells like paint!

by JustinM on Jan 8, 2009 9:08 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That Semin differential is incredible. Same with Brassard when you consider he’s a rookie.

It’s funny, but I don’t think the goals dried up when Koivu got hurt in Montreal (both for and against), although the numbers would seem to suggest otherwise. I thought there was a bigger switch to low scores when Komisarek was hurt than any other player. That Andrei Kostitsyn has such a high event rating (and positive by a full goal) while having a subpar year in terms of production is quite something.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Jan 8, 2009 9:36 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Love does stats, but why haven’t you just made GFON/60 – GAON/60, to get what I can call a “plus-minus events ON/ 60” or “positive events”:
for example Semin with 5.11 (GFON/60) and 1.49 (GAON/60) makes him have a score of 3.62, and maybe puts on the top list for a “+/- events ON / 60”

Though that should be interresting, and that should be a way to see good events players.
Good job with those numbers

by Vanhouse on Jan 8, 2009 9:40 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Those numbers are already available here.

by James Mirtle on Jan 8, 2009 1:01 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for the link,
great numbers, like the +- OFF / 60 too, those are great indicators.
But you need to compare players by team to really make them talk.

by Vanhouse on Jan 8, 2009 3:01 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Still if a team is down in a game a stat like this can indicate who the team should put on the ice to make something happen (even if the gamble doesn’t alaways work out)

by Ebscer on Jan 8, 2009 10:23 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to bury the lede
Who are the low-event players of the league? Goons, mostly, (Brashear, Orr, Ivanans, Cote, etc.) although there are some checkers (Donovan, Maltby, Holik, Axelsson, etc.) and defensive defenders (Volchenkov) down below 3.5 goals per 60 minutes, too. When they’re on the ice, head to the beer fridge.

That’s really what this list is about, isn’t it? :-)

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by Dominik on Jan 8, 2009 11:13 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not that you asked, but...

Yeah, I’m sure I’m stating the obvious here, but, readers should not forget to take these figures with a grain of salt (common sense is always required). A decent chunk of these players are on the list due simply to luck… sometimes you go through stretches where they just go in, that applies at both ends. No one should look at this and go, “Wow, Craig Conroy has incorporated a lot more chaos into his game this season!”

The prototypical high-event player on the list is probably Letang or Phaneuf (I believe Marc-Andre Bergeron and Vinny Lecavalier are the patron saints of High Event results). D-men who will pinch in high risk/reward situations, forwards who go on the jailbreak when it looks like a teammate has possession, etc.

That said, the spread from top to bottom over long periods of time between players is not as big as one might think, certainly nothing in the same ballpark as Goals or Shots. When we had that chat (~8 games into the season), the Shoot% while Giordano was on the ice was 15.1% and the SV% behind him was .800, both of which are absurd. Sure enough, since that day, the numbers are 7.9% and 0.915.

by MattF on Jan 8, 2009 12:26 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs


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