The Leafs are no different than many other teams in terms of when ‘enough is enough’ when it comes to their starting goalteding. Toskala has struggled mightily this season so far (.812) but so has other goaltenders like Huet in Chicago (.844) who has seen his starting job called into question already this early into the season. The biggest problem for both these teams is that who do you turn to? Are Gustavsson and Niemi ready to take the next step and lead these two teams to where they’re expected to?

Although it’s very early on, this season has shown us that many of the teams that have been successful so far have been a direct result of phenominal goaltending (Pheonix, Colorado, Atlanta) and teams that have struggled have been in large part due to the porous netminding they’ve received so far (Toronto, Vancouver, Detroit).

1) As always, and to paraphrase James Carville, Its the goaltending Stupid! Amazing how a great goalie can make even a mediocre team look good, and vise versa.
2) Not sure if Toskala alone can be blamed for Toronto’s woes. Save % is a telling stat, but so would number of good scoring opportunities the Leafs are allowing? Not sure if Georges Vezina himself would make a difference for that team

I thought it was very well written, Mr. Mirtle. Balanced and insightful.

One concern:

"Toskala is a great guy, but he can’t handle pressure,"

says an un-named “Finnish hockey insider”.

Toskala sure seems like an enigma and it would be really interesting to see more written about what he’s like personally and what makes him tick. He usually presents himself as unconcerned and aloof so it’s surprising to hear that “pressure” is a problem. It seems to be that he plays better once the game has some intensity to it, and the real concern is the lack of focus or preparation that causes him to let in a soft goal off the first shot or in the first five minutes of a period. Also, it’s not like he’s a goaltender who’s been marvelous but then suddenly cracks and folds when the games get meaningful. The last time the Leafs played a truly meaningful game, Toskala wasn’t in net, it was Raycroft, and he got pulled for Aubin.

I’ve written about this before, but the difference between being a league-average goalie and being in the AHL is one goal every three games (I sound like Bull Durham.) Add a little good or bad luck into the equation, and 40 or 80 games might not be enough to figure out if a goalie is any good. Goalies who get called up to the NHL and goalies who get sent down to the AHL post the exact same stats in the AHL, so there’s a lot of short-term observation bias. Goalies are also enigmatic, often with short careers, so sometimes a guy is just done. I won’t claim to have the answer.

I remember when Toskala got traded one of my friends who is a Leafs fan started (somewhat jokingly) calling him “Vesa-na” (as in Vezina).

What’s interesting about Toskala’s mental state is the pressure that he appears to be putting on himself to be “the guy” even when the team suffers.

The Leafs’ first loss to the Rangers this season was a one goal game after the second period, a period in which Toskala suffered the injury he’s sitting out with now. But Toskala stayed in the game, and gave up 4 weak goals (not that the ones he’d let in before had been much better). The game was certainly respectable, until Toskala’s decision to play injured.

Last year Toskala had surgery to correct a nagging injury that had been ailing him for some time, yet only came to light when Burke and Wilson questioned his play. Considering his numbers last year, and how Martin Gerber did fairly well in his stead, is it reaching to wonder how many points he cost the Leafs?

The thing is that if Toskala performed well through his varying ailments when choosing not to sit down, he would be a hero. Instead he struggled, as any would, and now he’s a villain. I think it makes a lot of sense to consider that the guy is being affected by more pressure than he’s ever been in his career, and to question his worth as a starter when he can’t play without getting injured.

I really liked that last quote from Button “At what point do you realize he can’t do it anymore?” It’s good stuff, though as a Leaf fan it grates on me that the guy asking the question had a hand in all of this. But did Toskala really “do it” before? He’d never been a starter for a team, and I think the realization dawned on him that his performance as one could make or break his career.

I think he should get a leave of absence and get his injuries healed and also counseling or something. If you wonder what I mean, try to get a sense of his personality and then compare interviews from his time with the Sharks or before NHL or even first Leafs year to what they have been since some time last year (I mean video, more the way he carries himself and speaks than the words). I don’t like to throw the word around but I’d suggest that he seems borderline depressed (and not just after bad games).

Hey, my first post here. Been lurking for a while.

Had to comment on this one. Steve McKichan was the goalie coach for the Leafs a few years back and worked with Belfour, Raycroft and Toskala. Those goaltenders had success under his supervision.

http://www.futurepro.com/about_steve_mckichan.htm

When he was replaced with Corey Hirsch, that is when things went haywire for the Leaf’s goalies. Then he was replaced this season with Allaire. Now we’re hearing that Allaire is trying to change the way Toskala plays. That spells disaster. A good goalie coach should simply try to refine the goalie’s abilities and make sure he is getting the most out of his talent. Changing the way they do things at the top level in the top league won’t work. A goalie has to be able to execute without thinking about technical stuff or fundamentals. The thinking a goalie has to do on the ice should be limited to reading the play.

BTW, I think Toskala is an average NHL goalie. There’s nothing to be ashamed of being an average goalie in the best league in the world. But, the rest of the team is also populated with average NHL players. Again, no shame in being an average NHL player. There are no elite players on the Leafs. That is why they are loosing. And for that the blame should fall on the architect of the team (JFJ more so than Burke, perhaps?). The same thing that has happened to Toskala in the last year is happening to Beauchemin. Beauchemin is a good NHL defensemen. But, he is being asked to play like an elite NHL defensemen. Toskala is being asked to play like an elite NHL goalie. On a better team both Toskala and Beauchemin would do much better. Also, due you really think Pheonix would be winning without Dave Tippet as their coach? To me, that is their biggest turnaround. Finally, a captain directing the ship toward success. With Gretzky it was a rudderless ship.

Goaltending can only have so much of an effect on a team. Anderson is showing that it can help greatly. But, sometimes goaltending can hide problems with deficiencies in the rest of the team that need to be addressed in order to be a contender. Example, Oilers vs. Bluejackets game last night. Oilers have a problem covering late man driving toward their net. At least two goals were scored by the trailing man despite 4 or 5 Oilers being back. All Oilers were fixated on the puck carrier and no one covered the eventual goal scorer. Commentators may say the goalie should stop the shot or prevent a bad rebound but, at some point defending players have to learn to cover the attackers or the team will fail in the end. It baffles my mind after reading the quotes about the coach needing a buffer to explain whether the goal was a good or bad goal. How could an NHL level coach not know that there are certain things that need to occur defensively before the puck gets to their goalie to allow for success? Sometimes I think coaches just sit back and hope their goalie bails their team out repeatedly instead of teaching players how to play in their own end.

/out of breath/ end of rant…

Well, there comes a time when some goalies just lose their touch. I think Toskala has lost his. And I’m worried that Marty Turco’s on the verge…

We’re talking about 100 shots here! Does anyone know anything about random variations. Let’s talk again a few weeks later (if he gets to play). Also, one cannot expect the same performance if there are injury issues – you can’t blame the goalie if the coach plays an injured goalie and he does poorly.

A few stats…
The standard deviation is around sqrt(19) = 4.35 goals (or about 4%).
So a 95% confidence interval would include save percentages as high as: 0.896
A 99% confidence interval would include save percentages as high as: 0.927 (which makes more sense because he is the worst goalie of many goalies).

This is before considering the facts that Toronto isn’t exactly the best defensive team and that he wasn’t pulled when he should have been (7 goals and not pulled?). Toskala may not be an all-star goalie (maybe not a starter either), but he is a 0.900 goalie in the long run.

Operation Make it Seven Eight successful. Ouch.

On the plus side for Leafs fans, Anaheim (3-5) and Dallas (4-6) look beatable these days.

FWIW, Turek didn’t break his contract. He left with the Flames permission and best wishes.

What would Leaf’s fans feel about Manny Fernandez or Manny Legace as an interm solution? Those two are still out there. I know Legace was trying out with the Thrashers. Not sure if he is with their minor league team. Fernandez is unsigned.

I wanted the Sharks to keep Toskala over Nabby a couple of years ago. I’m glad they decided to keep Nabby.