Because of the vagaries of the NHL's OT/SO system, even though Montreal has played just as badly as...

Because of the vagaries of the NHL's OT/SO system, even though Montreal has played just as badly as Toronto, they're tied for eighth in the East with 23 points, while Toronto's in last place with 14 points. If you think there's something about the Canadiens that allowed them to go 8-1 in the extra frames while Toronto's obviously a 1-6 team, I'd love to hear it. Even allowing for Vesa Toskala's crappy goaltending, we'd expect Montreal to be 5-4 and the Leafs at 3-4.

And things bode much worse for Montreal going forward than for Toronto. At 5-on-5, the Canadiens have been outshot by 3.5 shots-per-game, while Toronto has outshot its opponents by 4.6 shots-per-game.

— Gabriel Desjardins, Behind The Net

2 months ago James Mirtle 14 comments 0 recs |

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Let’s do a little more in depth analysis before we start calling the Leafs and Habs similar.
Montreal has allowed 9 more goals than it has scored, and Toronto has allowed 24 more. That is a huge difference! 15 extra goals against over 21 games. That is the difference in the records right there.
What I found incredibly interesting was that the Leafs are ranked 4th on the power play. I would be very concerned if this efficiency begins to fall off. Montreal meanwhile has alot of room for improvement.

I think it is a difficult comparison to make. Montreal certainly isn’t impressing many, but they are a long way from the minor hockey that they Leafs are playing these days.

by lightweight on Nov 23, 2009 3:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

they are a long way from the minor hockey that they Leafs are playing these days.

Did you click through to the article? The difference is that the Leafs have been playing better at evens but Montreal’s been getting the extra points.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 23, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the goaltending. Goals for is fairly even, Montreal only scoring a few more. It’s the extra 12 goals allowed for the team +/- of 15 that is the difference. While I found the original comparison rather simplistic, perhaps it is. Allowing less goals = More points (especially in OT and SO!!)

by lightweight on Nov 23, 2009 8:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Montreal has allowed 16 more goals than it has scored; Toronto has allowed 19.

by Hawerchuk on Nov 23, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

According to NHL.com, Montreal has scored 57 and allowed 66. That’s a difference of 9 I believe! Toronto has scored 54 and allowed 78. That’s 24.

by lightweight on Nov 23, 2009 8:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They include shootout goals in the standings for some dumbass reason (they don’t count to the player’s individual stats, but they do everywhere else? The hell?). So take +7 off Montreal and -5 off Toronto, and you get Gabe’s numbers.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 23, 2009 10:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

To be clear, it’s dumb that they include SO goals but I just removed both SO and OT goals. Still, the point stands: Gabe’s analysis was of regulation only.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 23, 2009 10:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Simplistic

Yes, simplistic indeed.

The Canadiens have won 4 games (4-0) in the extra 5 minutes of open play, while Toronto have lost are 0-4. Even if you want to average out the shootouts, it’d still be more like 7-2 for the Habs and 1-6 for the Leafs. Being that there’s no analysis of the OT here, just the assumption that all OT results must eventually be distributed evenly, I question the value of the observation.

Alas, the acolyte of statistics will always have trouble grasping how a team can exist away from the mean. But still, we expect more from the guru than:

Even allowing for Vesa Toskala’s crappy goaltending, we’d expect Montreal to be 5-4 and the Leafs at 3-4.

by Topham on Nov 23, 2009 7:11 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

Being that there’s no analysis of the OT here, just the assumption that all OT results must eventually be distributed evenly, I question the value of the observation.

I’d ask Gabriel because he might just be assuming that the reader is aware of the distribution of OT results.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Nov 23, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No Great Mystery

There’s no great mystery as to why Montreal is doing much better than you’d expect in OT – the majority of their top two lines – Gomez, Gionta, Cammalleri, Plekanec, and Kostitsyn are all smaller, faster, skill guys whose skill sets are well suited to 4 on 4 hockey. Add to that some mobile, puck-moving defencemen – Spacek, Gorges, Bergeron and to a lesser extent Hamrlik plus some timely goaltending and you have a squad that is able to compete in the extra frame.

As for the Shoot Out, I tend to agree with you, it’s pretty much a coin flip as to who wins (although Price’s reputation in Shoot Outs is not entirely undeserved).

(Now if the whole point of your argument is that Montreal isn’t as good as you might think from a brief perusal of the standings? No argument there.)

by Richard S. Argent on Nov 23, 2009 8:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That law of averages came into play on Saturday vs. Detroit in the shootout: Price allowed 2 goals on 2 shots after being perfect all year, including 6 for 6 vs. Carolina.

Cammalleri’s about a 25-30% shooter in the shootout, and Plekanec is 1 for 11 lifetime.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Nov 23, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But the habs

have all of their draft picks and two good goalies! so we have that going for us leaf fans….
thats about it!

Leafs selling hope to the hopeless since 1967

by Toe Blake Hockey on Nov 23, 2009 11:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Again

No injury has fubared a team more this year than Andrei Markov’s severed tendon in Montreal. The same thing happened to Boyle in Tampa and it cost Tortorella his job. It’s amazing how much more every player in the Habs lineup has to do in his absence. Hamrlik hasn’t played this much a night since he was an Islander. Spacek hasn’t had to play this much ever aside from when Pronger was his D partner. The PP stinks (Cammalleri hasn’t been set up for very many of his one timers). The PK took a long time to settle and still isn’t what it could be if Markov was there. The breakouts stink.

And then the other injuries started piling up.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Nov 23, 2009 11:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs