A beginner's guide to the new stats
by James Mirtle on Dec 3, 2009 1:27 AM CST
44 comments
Way back in mid-August I posted about some of hockey's 'new' stats, a piece that drew a ton of commentary from within the blogosphere. The follow-up was intended to be a list of "10 key new metrics you'd like to see creep into the league's stat books," something stat head Gabe Desjardins was kind enough to pull together for us.
Here are 10 stats he figures we should know and love:
Part 1 - Plus/Minus statistics
Part 2 - Quality of Competition
Part 3 - Corsi Number
Part 4 - Zone Starts (or Offensive/Defensive Zone Faceoff Ratio)
Part 5 - Penalty +/-
Part 6 - Shot Distance
Part 7 - Goals and Points per 60 Minutes
Part 8 - Scoring Chances
Part 9 - Quality of Teammates
Part 10 - Wins Above Replacement
I get a ton of feedback from things like the top defensive forwards and defencemen lists, something that I think speaks to just how much of a demand there is for more analytical approaches to hockey. Both times I posted those this season, I had emails and phone calls from people in the hockey world wanting to just talk about what was there and what it means. (I still refuse to give up my formula, though.)
Ultimately, we should get to the point that stats like quality of competition and the like are involved in arbitration cases rather than things like PIM and blocked shots.
Gabe's done a great job of putting in one place the ways we can start to analyze the game, and I'm hopeful I can branch out from beyond just No. 1 and 2 on the list and get into things like zone start and quality of teammates as the season goes along.
If you've seen any excellent statistical analysis lately, drop it in the comments.
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Beautiful
thanks again to you and Gabe for all you do to advance the importance and clarity of stats in hockey. I’ve got this post bookmarked.
This reminds me of one of Bill James’ original rants about stats in baseball. Contrary to what most people think about him, James has never advocated a purely stats based approach to appreciating baseball. He loves the smell of fresh cut grass, and the aesthetics of the crack of the bat, and the marvel of seeing a great defensive play. His point was that the use of statistics already dominated the appreciation of baseball long before he was even born, and, if you were going to use them, it offended his sensibilities for statistics to be used so damned poorly.
I’ve had a lot of exposure to the Corsi Number as well, because our resident Sabres blog here (shameless suck-up plug) uses it for part of a game-by-game analysis of each player. I have found it to be quite useful, but pretty context-dependent, just like everything else.
As JMN says above, you can never fully replace watching a game.
Crosby vs. Datsyuk
Very, very interesting numbers. While scanning through the results on BehindTheNet it is surprising how low a star player like Crosby is ranked. Just compare him for instance with Pavel Datsyuk and you will see that Crosby is and will probably always be on top of the Points/Game list, but that doesn’t mean he is the best player around (as the NHL always wants it to be).
When Datsyuk is on the ice the team is +1.97, when he is off the ice the team is -0.16. What a difference maker he is! Crosby’s numbers: +-ON/60: 0.58 and +-OFF/60: 0.16.
To be fair, how often is Malkin on the ice when Crosby isn’t? I bet that shifts the scale a lot, whereas Zetterberg is often on the same line as Datsyuk.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
The obvious flaw is that number isn’t normalized correctly: it is a function of the rest of the team’s performance. It could be that the other Penguins are really good or the rest of Detroit sucks. It might be good for assessing the league MVP, but it’s not an absolute measure of skill.
And I agree with the comment below about the Corsi number. It starts from the same assumption derived from Sabermetrics, namely that defensive play is completely meaningless. Hypothetically speaking, a guy who does nothing but kill penalties is going to have a terrible Corsi number, but he could be a shot-blocking monster and keeps the slot/crease clear.
Those stats....
…have about as much chance of catching on as most of the esoteric BB stats do. Which is to say, no chance at all.
Even someone at his first hockey game could identify a goal and pretty much an assist. Only a rudimentary explanation is required to grasp +/-. A penalty is a penalty; the only thing that varies is the minutes handed out. That’s it. After that, just watch the game.
That list up there is barely relevant to poolies, who are the eggberts of hockey. No general fan is going to bother. Not a chance.
I’ll tell you about Quality of Competition: “I watched Enver Lisin play recently. He sucks.”
No stats required.
by garth the hoser on Dec 3, 2009 10:37 AM CST reply actions
The only problem is that journalists are using them now, along with NHL teams and agents. No general fan is going to watch game tape and count how many successful and unsuccessful breakouts his team has. But you can bet somebody who works for the team is.
" ... somebody who works for the team is."
… which in turn makes it of greater interest to those of us who like comparing players within and among teams. We want a look into the same things the scouts, coaches and GMs are looking at.
Ya, we all know where the Kyle Chipchuras of the league sit, and for the most part why, but it’s sometimes enlightening to compare, say, Keith and Seabrook with Campbell and Hjalmarsson … or, like above, Crosby and Datsyuk. It always has to be qualified by context, but so then does “he sucks”.
And then of course you have some sort of margin of error between arenas if you have 30 different people with 30 different ideas of what a “successful” breakout is.
It’s the same problem that we’ve had for years with hits and takeaways/giveaways.
FS Tennessee differentiates “Total Shots” from “Shots on Goal” by including the A/B, and miss numbers in their broadcasts of Predators games.
They don’t mention “CORSI numbers,” but it’s more than you’ll see most other places.
"Without good hard work, it is impossible to reach the pinnacle of success." - Anatoli Tarasov
I still don’t like Corsi that much. It seems to penalize players used in defensive situations only, and reward those used more for offense.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 3, 2009 11:51 AM CST reply actions
Which is why it should always be regarded as a context-sensitive stat, just like EV +/- and all the rest. Knowing who plays with whom and against whom can make a great deal of difference in what a number means, which is why often comparing one number to another is like comparing an apple to a pumpkin.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Agree
I just find it to be more misleading than useful.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 3, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Re: shot-blocking; it doesn’t diminish it. It simply doesn’t unduly lionize it. The simple fact is that with no time of possession stat available, Corsi is best used as a broad metric to reflect zone time. If your team faces 65 attempts and happens to block 10 or 12 of them, that may very well be better than not blocking them, but it’s still at heart a defensive action, and a reflection of time not spent doing something useful, like directing a shot at the other team’s goal. Doogie’s point regarding QComp/Team is noted, and where a player is starting their shifts should also be considered for the sake of context.
by Robert Cleave on Dec 3, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
It’s less a blocking shots thing for me personally, even though I do think corsi undervalues them.
I just think it unfairly punishes those guys who take faceoffs in their own zone, or even wingers and defenders who are out there.But here’s the main reason I hate Corsi: Before he got hurt last season, The Corsi had Tyler Arnason rated A TON better than Joe Sakic. Like Light years. Any stat that does that just has too much wrong with it, even at Sakic’s advanced age.
If the game were completely fluid (like say soccer) it might be better, but the fact that guys change for face-offs undermines it, IMO.
Also there’s quite a few teams who cycle a bit for quality shots, now you can argue that this is a fault (and it probably is), but I’ve watched teams keep the puck in the zone and keep possession for 2:00 and not get a shot, yet someone gets a shot and a weak rebound.
There’s just too many weaknesses in Corsi for me to really take it too seriously. It’s kind of helpful, but it’s got to be taken with a gigantic grain of salt.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 3, 2009 11:21 PM CST up reply actions
Here are some stats that “rated” Arnason better than Sakic last year:
Goals
Assists
+/- per 82
Power-Play Goals
Shots on Goal
Shooting Percentage
Obviously, we know enough to put these in context; the counting stats aren’t meaningful because Arnason played 71 games to Sakic’s 12. Shooting percentage, just bad luck for Sakic over a small number of games.
But +/- per 82, that’s interesting. Sakic was a -6 in 12 games last year. So maybe Corsi was on to something – the Avs gave up a lot of shots when he was on the ice.
Because he took nearly every single defensive zone face-off, and Granato would have to be an idiot (ok bad example, but still) to give Arnason a defensive zone face-off.
And the Corsi rating at 12 games had Arnason better, by a lot. This would be like finding a metric that ranks Billy Joe Armstrong as a better Guitarist than Eric Clapton. No matter what metric that was… it’s crap.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 4, 2009 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
There’s metrics that rank guitarists? Sign me up.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Dec 4, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
I call it a Fender Bender.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Dec 4, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
As of 4 days ago, Jim Corsi had the rankings: 1) Hendrix; 2) Clapton; 3) Van Halen. He’s pretty good at rating a lot of things.
If Knopfler, Hackett, Howe, and Gilmour aren’t in the top 5, the rankings suck.
by J. Michael Neal on Dec 5, 2009 2:42 AM CST up reply actions
Here’s a useful analogy for shot-blocking as it relates to corsi – the stat itself doesn’t say that the act is meaningless and not of value, it just says that if you’re doing blocking more shots that you’re taking then you’re spending a lot of time in your own end.
For example, let’s say one day find a rat in your house. And you kill it. That’s good. But, let’s say the next day you find 10 rats in your house. Or 20. Killing them is still probably the right course of action, but it should probably lead you to the conclusion that maybe there’s something wrong with your house.
See what I mean? Teams that spend a lot of time in their own end typically block a whole lot of shots. It probably makes sense for them to do (like killing rats) but it’s also probably a symptom of underlying issues (like living in a rats nest).
Rats are very difficult to deal with. Much better to seal up all the walls and doors than to try to kill them. I speak from experience.
And that is why the trap was invented.
There is a knack to flying: it's learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.
by Sid the captain on Dec 3, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
We actually use a bait box outside the house. The rats take that stuff home and kill each other with it. If there’s a hockey analogy here, I don’t see it :)
I’m sure it has something to do with the Maple Leafs.
by J. Michael Neal on Dec 3, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions
Playing in the offensive zone?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I think it involves getting Dion Phaneuf addicted to crystal meth, and then having him introduce the rest of the Flames?
by Passive Voice on Dec 4, 2009 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
So, the goal is to bore the rats to death with a lot neutral zone play?
by J. Michael Neal on Dec 3, 2009 5:10 PM CST up reply actions
But there are no rats in Alberta, right? So what do you know about it? :)
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
I’m sure there are plenty of rink rats everywhere in Alberta.
by rsm on Dec 3, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2009/09/01/calgary-rat-free.html
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
Alberta is once more “rat-free” after provincial inspectors captured a single varmint believed to have entered the province from neighbouring Saskatchewan on a recreational vehicle.
It’s hard for me not to picture a rat riding a tractor in on a joyride.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Dec 4, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
What officials thought was a second juvenile rat turned out to be a large mouse, but animal services will continue monitoring traps and bait in the area.
Only Canadians could spend this much effort trying to distinguish between a large mouse and a small rat.
by J. Michael Neal on Dec 5, 2009 2:55 AM CST up reply actions
My view is that if Corsi is intended to measure how many pucks are directed at net, then a shot block should be considered a positive thing, as it is, by definition, taking away a shot towards net.
Corsi measures the number of pucks directed at the net, but it’s intended to be a proxy for puck possession. If you can show us that you have some other stat that does a better job of this but has the opposite sign on blocks, please write it up. I am sure that many people would be willing to work through this.
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