Comparing this season to last: 338 games to go

by James Mirtle on Feb 24, 2009 7:15 AM CST in Statistics Comment 17 comments

All eyes are on the trade deadline, a week from tomorrow at 3 p.m., which means the season is quickly winding down. Last night's Sharks-Stars tilt was Game No. 892 of the season, meaning the 2008-09 regular season is 72.5% complete.

Only 338 games to go, an average of just more than 22 per team.

What follows is a comparison of what teams are on pace for this season in comparison to where they finished last time around.

First, by points, where the surprising Bruins still lead the way. Incredibly, the Sharks are the second most improved team and are on pace for 129 points, three short of the all-time record.

Chicago and Washington, the two top stories at the gate this season, are also two of the most improved clubs on the ice, making nearly 20-point improvements:

		2007-08	2008-09
		Pts	PrPts	Diff
1	Boston	94	120	26
2	San Jose	108	129	21
3	Chicago	88	107	19
4	Washington	94	111	17
5	Los Angeles	71	83	12
6	Calgary	94	106	12
7	Columbus	80	90	10
8	Florida	85	95	10
9	New Jersey	99	108	9
10	Philadelphia	95	102	7
11	Vancouver	88	95	7
12	Buffalo	90	93	3
13	Detroit	115	118	3
14	St. Louis	79	81	2
15	Tampa Bay	71	71	0
16	Edmonton	88	88	0
17	Carolina	92	90	-2
18	Phoenix	83	81	-2
19	NY Rangers	97	93	-4
20	Toronto	83	77	-6
21	Dallas	97	90	-7
22	Minnesota	98	90	-8
23	Nashville	91	82	-9
24	Montreal	104	94	-10
25	Atlanta	76	66	-10
26	Pittsburgh	102	86	-16
27	Colorado	95	78	-17
28	Anaheim	102	85	-17
29	Ottawa	94	75	-19
30	NY Islanders	79	58	-21

At the other end of things, the bad Islanders have (purposely) gotten a whole lot worse, while the falls of the likes of Ottawa, Anaheim and Pittsburgh have been well chronicled.

Tampa Bay and Edmonton are doing exactly what they did last season, which isn't exactly good news.

Boston and San Jose are the leaders in goals scored per game, too. The Bruins have the same coach and a relatively similar cast, but the Sharks are playing a much different, more Red Wingesque style of game under new bench boss Todd McLellan. Detroit, New Jersey and Vancouver are also far more high scoring this season.

Note that league scoring is up from 5.44 goals per game to 5.70 goals per game this season over last.

This also lets you know exactly why the Sens are where they are:

		GF 2007-08	GF 2008-09	Diff
1	San Jose	2.63	3.40	0.77
2	Boston	2.51	3.27	0.76
3	Detroit	3.07	3.70	0.63
4	New Jersey	2.42	2.95	0.53
5	Vancouver	2.52	3.02	0.50
6	Chicago	2.85	3.31	0.46
7	Washington	2.90	3.30	0.40
8	Anaheim	2.40	2.79	0.39
9	Calgary	2.76	3.14	0.38
10	Columbus	2.32	2.68	0.36
11	Atlanta	2.52	2.87	0.35
12	Philadelphia	2.99	3.26	0.27
13	St. Louis	2.46	2.71	0.25
14	Toronto	2.78	2.97	0.19
15	Florida	2.57	2.76	0.19
16	NY Islanders	2.30	2.39	0.09
17	Edmonton	2.68	2.73	0.05
18	Pittsburgh	2.93	2.97	0.04
19	Phoenix	2.55	2.57	0.02
20	Dallas	2.89	2.86	-0.03
21	Colorado	2.73	2.62	-0.11
22	Los Angeles	2.76	2.62	-0.14
23	Minnesota	2.68	2.53	-0.15
24	NY Rangers	2.50	2.33	-0.17
25	Montreal	3.13	2.95	-0.18
26	Buffalo	3.06	2.87	-0.19
27	Tampa Bay	2.70	2.50	-0.20
28	Carolina	3.05	2.62	-0.43
29	Nashville	2.77	2.30	-0.47
30	Ottawa	3.15	2.45	-0.70

The Hurricanes and Predators have also really seen their goal output drop, something related to personnel as much as anything. Nashville really misses both Zidlicky and Radulov this season.

Again, the Oilers are right where they were last time around.

Finally, here are the goals against figures for all 30 teams. The Bruins are again the league's most improved team by this measure, but the team that's fallen the furthest will likely make a few heads spin (scroll down):

		GA 2007-08	GA 2008-09	Diff
1	Boston	2.62	2.18	-0.44
2	Chicago	2.82	2.38	-0.44
3	Los Angeles	3.21	2.81	-0.40
4	Minnesota	2.56	2.31	-0.25
5	Tampa Bay	3.24	3.05	-0.19
6	Carolina	3.00	2.84	-0.16
7	Ottawa	2.95	2.81	-0.14
8	Florida	2.68	2.59	-0.09
9	Buffalo	2.84	2.75	-0.09
10	Edmonton	3.01	3.02	0.01
11	Nashville	2.73	2.75	0.02
12	Washington	2.77	2.82	0.05
13	San Jose	2.28	2.34	0.06
14	St. Louis	2.83	2.93	0.10
15	Philadelphia	2.77	2.88	0.11
16	New Jersey	2.35	2.48	0.13
17	Columbus	2.56	2.73	0.17
18	Calgary	2.73	2.90	0.17
19	Atlanta	3.24	3.50	0.26
20	Vancouver	2.51	2.78	0.27
21	Phoenix	2.74	3.03	0.29
22	Montreal	2.63	2.98	0.35
23	NY Islanders	2.93	3.30	0.37
24	NY Rangers	2.32	2.72	0.40
25	Toronto	3.12	3.53	0.41
26	Colorado	2.63	3.08	0.45
27	Dallas	2.49	2.98	0.49
28	Pittsburgh	2.58	3.07	0.49
29	Anaheim	2.24	2.87	0.63
30	Detroit	2.18	2.92	0.74

That the Red Wings have allows this many more goals and still remain one of the league's top teams is remarkable. Everyone else on the low end here is having a poor season and suffering through some goalie woes.

It's actually hard to believe that the Thrashers, the Isles and the Leafs have all gotten this much worse given they weren't all that stellar defensively last time around.

And Edmonton? Well, you know.

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It’s interesting to look at the Penguins. Much has been said about the players that ‘got away’ from them this year…but really I think that the injuries to the defensive corps combined with inconsistent keeping has hurt the team more than their failure to keep the guys up front….as bad as Satan et al have been this year, their production has remained almost the same.

by Yoshietree on Feb 24, 2009 9:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

players tha got away from Pens

In terms of the players that “got away” Hossa was the biggest name—but he only played roughly 20 games for the Pens last year, so his impact contribution is understated when you look at those regular season numbers. This is not true for players like Ryan Malone and C. Armstrong.

by The Falconer on Feb 24, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I think the injury to Gonchar is at least 50 per cent of the problem, and not having Conklin go on that amazing stretch is a huge contributer, too.

by James Mirtle on Feb 24, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Senators Collapse

The decline in Ottawa’s offense is nothing short of stunning. The core offensive guys (Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson) are all back and fairly healthy. But both the 1st and 2nd line guys have seen their ability to finish off shots just vanish.

The roster turnover in OTT was primarily at G and D—and yet it is the offense that has suffered the most.

by The Falconer on Feb 24, 2009 11:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

"Islanders have (purposely) gotten a whole lot worse"

1) Surprised no Islander fan has called you on that back handed slur of their team. Sure their roster going into this season was thin on talent, but they have suffered the most man games lost due to injuries especially all season for their starting goalie.
2) Would they have made the playoffs if they stayed healthy? Probably not, but if healthy they more than likely would have had a similar record as last season.

by Fauxrumors on Feb 24, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Back handed slur my fanny … this team had one goal this season and that was Tavares.

by James Mirtle on Feb 24, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

“had” one goal this season? It still is there goal! ;-). Hey, if they lose the draft lottery (hey, they’re good at losing), at least they’ll get Hedman. Actually, I think they could use Hedman more than Tavares anyway….

Cheers,
Matt

www.viewfrommyseats.com

by Cheap Seats on Feb 24, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I think they could use Hedman more than Tavares anyway….

They just might do that.

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Feb 24, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah it’s starting to sound like that’s a possibility now.

by James Mirtle on Feb 24, 2009 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"this team had one goal this season and that was Tavares" Huh?

1) Silly in the extreme! Even the last place finisher has LESS than a 50% chance of drafting first. If we didn’t know where that comment was coming from we’d swear it was something a bitter big market team writer might proclaim.
2) Bottom line this version of the Isles was no weaker than last year. The difference is the loss of DiPietro for the entire season and a rookie head coach who couldn’t get as much from his team as Ted Nolan, in addition to leading the league in man-games lost due to injury
3) IF the isles fired Nolan and told DiPietro to take the season off with pay, and faked numerous injuries, THEN perhaps you could make such a conclusion. We don’t give Wang Snow that kind of credit.

by Fauxrumors on Feb 24, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They weren’t “purposely” losing from the beginning, but they were purposely prepared to 1)Sink or swim with youngsters, and 2)Refuse to replace injuries via trade. Snow warned fans in open houses during the summer that there would be “pain.” As body after body went down, he called up AHL replacements (and two waiver claims) rather than attempt NHL-level replacements.

I think they were indeed weaker than last year going in. The Isles let veteran free agents walk and replaced them with kids, with the exception of Doug Weight (whose performance this year exceeded all expectations). One of those kids, Josh Bailey, was hurt for the first month, but they were still going to rely on what they had. Mike Sillinger has been hurt essentially all season, but there was no “upgrade” roster replacement made.

I appreciate the defense of “my” team, but really, in one sentence or two paragraphs, this year has been one long rip of the bandaid from the flesh. Any other outcome was just going to be gravy (yet with a lower number of lottery balls).

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Feb 24, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They lost all sorts of players. Satan, Fedotenko, Vasicek, etc., and replaced them all with less than NHL calibre players. This team was never going to finish higher than 27th or 28th this season.

by James Mirtle on Feb 24, 2009 5:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The DET GA slide from best to to 20th is interesting but more telling is their climb in terms of production. Last year DET (3.07) trailed only MTL (3.13) and OTT (3.15) by a slim margin, whereas this year they’re blowing away the competition with 3.70 GF, leading second place SJS (3.40) by a healthy .30 margin. If they regain last season’s defensive form, look out.

http://puckreport.blogspot.com

by puckreport on Feb 24, 2009 11:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Whether you think Detroit will return to its old ways allowing goals depends a lot on whether you think that Chris Osgood has been the problem, and that Conklin will continue to play the way that he has. If Conklin’s numbers so far this year are what we can expect going forwards, then about 80% of that jump in goals allowed disappears.

I’m skeptical. I think Conklin is good, and that Osgood has melted down. I also think that the team is playing differently in front of them. I think that a part of the reason the goals allowed has jumped is the same reason that the goals scored have jumped: they are playing more offensively minded. I doubt that that’s going to change, and, if it does, allowing fewer goals will come at the cost of scoring fewer.

I also think that there’s some regression to the mean going on. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and a couple of others are very good defensive forwards. They are not, however, really as good as they looked last year. Expecting them to continue at that level was unrealistic.

Their other problem is that, at least to my eyes when watching the Wings this year, Nick Lidstrom has merely been a very, very good defenseman, rather than being one of the three best of all time.

by J. Michael Neal on Feb 24, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lidstrom has been really bothered by his elbow, and likely will need surgery after the season (according to George Malik at Snapshots). Considering that, he’s been playing pretty well.

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Feb 24, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mirtle you are a machine,

I’m not actually that surprised with the Detroit stat, they were suffering tremendously early in the season, and I think it is well documented their goalie problems, although it actually is amazing that you could drop that much and still maintain such a high level of play.

by mattman on Feb 24, 2009 1:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

" the bad Islanders have (purposely) gotten a whole lot worse"

“Purposely”, huh? You think that the organization is breaking guys knees and ankles and ribs or what? They are the number one most injured team in the NHL, there is no reason to be such an a-hole about their situation.

by TheMetalChick on Feb 24, 2009 9:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs