Part 3: Welcome to Smashville: Five Challenges Facing the Preds
Apologies for the brief hiatus in the series. Blame junior hockey.

Nashville's been written off as a hockey market by an awful lot of people, but one of the things I wanted to get a handle on first hand when I visited Tennessee a few weeks ago was just what exactly are the major challenges to the NHL's survival there.
Here's what I came up with:
1. A relatively small market
One thing that's rarely mentioned when Nashville's discussed as a hockey market is just how small its population is (about 620,000 in the actual city and 1.5 million in the metro area). The Preds have far fewer potential fans than massive warm-weather cities like Atlanta and Phoenix and have drawn remarkably well given Nashville is the third smallest U.S. city with an NHL team.
They're the Buffalo of the South.
2. Making inroads in football culture
I'd expected that the Thursday night game against Phoenix would be a good example of low attendance in Nashville, but they filled the Sommet Center pretty well even for that one — mainly because it was late February. The real lows in attendance for the team come in the first half of the season, when the Tennessee Titans are playing in a massive stadium a stone's throw away across the Cumberland River and drawing the majority of the corporate support.
There's no question that, if the Predators were the only major professional team in the market, they'd be far better off. As it is, they compete with football in the NFL, NCAA and even local high schools.
3. Keeping ownership local
Even with David Freeman and company at the helm right now, ownership concerns lead the way in terms of challenges in the market. Nashville doesn't really appear to have a huge corporate community to draw from or any local billionaires looking to buy into a hockey team that's potentially going to, at best, break even and at worst lose money more often than not.
If Freeman ever decides to sell, it's likely outside investors would have to step in, and that's always a dicey situation in terms of solidifying a team in a market I'm not sure the NHL's hell bent on staying in.
4. Low ticket prices
For a Saturday night game against the Red Wings, a contest billed as one of the most in-demand games of the season, we were able to buy great tickets in the lower bowl for $67 apiece a few days before the game on Ticketmaster. For the Phoenix game, tickets were widely available in the upper deck for about $20.
At that rate, it's probably going to be impossible for Nashville to generate $80- or $90-million a season, which is the kind of revenue the top 15 to 20 teams in the NHL pull in. Barring a deep, deep playoff run, I can't see the Preds ever being anything more than one of the lowest 10 revenue-generating teams in the league and that's with a very favourable agreement with the city.
5. The need for full revenue sharing
That last point is exactly why revenue sharing is so vital to the team. There is a fan base in Nashville, it is growing, and there's potential for Tennessee to become much more of a hockey market 15 or 20 years down the line if the league's bigger markets can continue to bail them out. It'll be tough sledding for this team even with that extra $10- to 12-million, but looking at the numbers, they frankly don't have a chance otherwise. Minus revenue sharing, Nashville would not have out earned a single other team last season according to Forbes figures.

Now, almost every market in every sport faces some challenges. The Predators have more than most, even in the NHL, but are they too much to overcome? Does professional hockey belong in Nashville and will it survive there long term?
Stay tuned for Part 4.
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Good points
As regards revenue sharing, I’d expect Nashville (and a few other franchises) to be permanent beneficiaries of the program, and that’s as intended. The narrow $16 million gap between the salary cap and floor was set to encourage competition among teams, with the understanding that not all teams could afford the minimum, while many teams could afford well above the maximum; hence the revenue sharing plan, which is intended to allow all teams the opportunity to spend up to the 25% mark between the two extremes.
I think many fans operate under the misconception that revenue sharing is a temporary financial salve for teams losing money. Instead, it’s a measure to create a set of team payrolls that are much more closely aligned than local market size would allow otherwise.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 20, 2009 10:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But do the owners of teams that see half their playoff revenues go to other markets accept the permanent nature of revenue sharing? If it was sold to them as a temporary measure to help smaller markets until they mature, then they may pull the plug themselves because they are tired of seeing their revenues go to other teams, when they are struggling in this economy, too.
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Mar 20, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t speak for the owners, but there’s nothing in any of the language around the revenue sharing plan that indicates a temporary nature. It’s a permanent mechanism to create a team salary structure that is more closely bunched together than the market conditions of the individual teams. That’s by design, to create competitive balance.
Actually, I’d argue somewhat as to whether this was really needed for reasons of competitive balance, or to create a more equitable salary structure for players (i.e., a 2nd-line winger could expect a certain salary range, regardless of the team he plays for). Rich teams often failed in the old NHL, and small-market teams made runs deep into the playoffs.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 20, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a temp
Agreed. My impression was that Revenue Sharing is a permanent fix to forcing the salary cap floor. If you have a floor (to ensure competitive teams) you need revenue sharing. Just like in the NBA…kinda…
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
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by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was basing that on comments from some owners and management people, along the lines of “when are these teams going to be profitable enough that our dollars stop going to them.” It made me think that the owners themselves were sold revenue-sharing as a temporary measure, to help the smaller markets get established.
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Mar 20, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Revenue sharing might have been part of the deal to getting a salary cap too. In return for guaranteed revenue + the cap, the 15 owners with profitable franchises had to accept bailing out the bottom 15 (approx of course…).
by Habs on Mar 20, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not permanent
Teams that receive revenue sharing have to increase their revenues faster than the league average, or the start to lose revenue sharing. If their revenues are increasing faster than the league average, basically that (probably) means that either they lose part of the revenue sharing cheque by increasing revenues, or by having it taken away from them because they didn’t increase revenues.
The system is permanent, but it’s designed intentionally so that no team can permanently be revenue sharing teams.
by RyanV on Mar 20, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good clarification
Hadn’t heard that before. Good to hear.
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
Hockey Pics- http://flickr.com/photos/paulnich/collections/72157600076075216/
Hockey Vids- http://vimeo.com/pwnicholson/videos/tag:nhl
by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh...kinda...
Nashville doesn’t really appear to have a huge corporate community to draw from or any local billionaires looking to buy into a hockey team
Not sure if the billionaires are looking to buy teams or not, but Nashville is (quietly i might add) pretty much the center of the corporate healthcare and insurance universe in the US with several major corporations based there (HCA being one of the more prominent ones). The publishing industry is/was also huge in the area with several major religious publishers, Ingram books, and a few others…though that has been dwindling a bit lately.
The population-to-pro-team ratio is a key problem/issue for the team though. I wrote a post about that years ago – mostly in pointing out that if the NHL does expand/move a team, Kansas City is the LAST place they need to go because they are one of the few cities that would have an even worse population-to-team ratio than Nashville. Vegas or Portland just make much more sense from those points of view. Maybe Seattle now that the Sonics are gone, though not sure if the market could support two NHL franchises that close – not southern Ontario after all :-)
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
Hockey Pics- http://flickr.com/photos/paulnich/collections/72157600076075216/
Hockey Vids- http://vimeo.com/pwnicholson/videos/tag:nhl
by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think people realize that the Ingram family is wealthier than Jim Balsillie, and as you mention the Frists have made a fortune with HCA. The big question, of course, is whether they’d be willing to dig into the pro sports scene if needed.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 20, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big question, of course, is whether they’d be willing to dig into the pro sports scene if needed.
I think that was what James meant by locals looking to buy into a hockey team. The entire corporate community can be awash in money, but it does a hockey team no good if they have no intention of spending any of their money on hockey.
ARE any of the local wealthy people interested in sports in Nashville? Or not really?
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Mar 20, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s my impression from talking to locals that the wealth gets spent on things other than sports in Nashville, but I was only there for a few days. Dirk and Paul may know better.
by James Mirtle on Mar 20, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously there are a few
Obviously there are a few… – 8 to be exact. Other than them… probably.
One of the things that these 8 will need to do (and are doing) is sell hockey to the others in town. That is slowly happening. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a few more local business people buy into the team in the next few years.
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
Hockey Pics- http://flickr.com/photos/paulnich/collections/72157600076075216/
Hockey Vids- http://vimeo.com/pwnicholson/videos/tag:nhl
by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the numbers
Here’s the spreadsheet i did back in 2007 showing the population of metro areas (not just city limits) up against the number of pro teams:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pNatt-eqgc2SC87WCapknXg
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
Hockey Pics- http://flickr.com/photos/paulnich/collections/72157600076075216/
Hockey Vids- http://vimeo.com/pwnicholson/videos/tag:nhl
by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting that, according to your numbers, Montreal has the highest fans per pro team ratio, with only 1 pro team in the city.
I imagine you don’t consider a CFL team and non-MLS soccer team pro franchises… which is about right.
by Habs on Mar 20, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly.
And by the same token i didn’t count major college sports in the US, which in some cities can have the same draw on a fanbase that pro sports in another city would. That would be an interesting look, but would take a lot longer to put together and have more judgment calls. Stuck to the “big 4” for this.
Blog- http://paulnich.blogspot.com
Hockey Pics- http://flickr.com/photos/paulnich/collections/72157600076075216/
Hockey Vids- http://vimeo.com/pwnicholson/videos/tag:nhl
by pwnicholson on Mar 20, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, the #1 example I think of there is Columbus, which has Ohio State.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 20, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small, but growing
One interesting tidbit that just came by… the Nashville area grew by roughly 30,000 over the last year (July 2007-2008), making it #53 in terms of growth rate out of 417 geographic areas tracked by the US Census.
Since the year 2000, the population of the area has grown by over 238,000, a rise of 18%. People are relocating here from all over, and they represent probably the best opportunity for growth for the Preds.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 20, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
WRT revenue sharing, not only do the top ten teams in terms of revenue contribute to the revenue sharing pool, but also all teams that make the playoffs contribute to revenue sharing as well.
This means that while the Predators have gotten revenue sharing the last three seasons, they have also paid into revenue sharing by vitue of having made the playoffs in those years. Granted, the revenue sharing money received was far more than what was paid in.
by taxman309 on Mar 20, 2009 4:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s a completely crocked system. I can’t see any way that success on the ice increasing your revenue sharing bill could backfire . . .
by J. Michael Neal on Mar 20, 2009 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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