Selke Watch '09: The NHL's top defensive forwards
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
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18 comments
Time to update the ol' Selke Watch.
Last time around, I didn't include Datsyuk and Zetterberg, two of last year's finalists, because they hadn't played much on the penalty kill, but the fact of the matter is the Red Wings simply don't take that many penalties. So I won't penalize them for that, and they're back in the group.
To make this list, players have to face a high quality of competition (as determined by Behind The Net), be on the ice for few goals against at even strength and shorthanded, and play about two minutes a game while shorthanded. Players also had to have played a minimum of 50 games.
With about 10 games to go, the leaders are:
| NAME | TM | GP | QCMP | EVGAA | SHGAA | |
| 1 | ANTTI MIETTINEN | MIN | 70 | 0.08 | 1.90 | 3.21 |
| 2 | PATRIK ELIAS | N.J | 71 | 0.04 | 2.15 | 1.82 |
| 3 | RYAN CALLAHAN | NYR | 71 | 0.03 | 1.68 | 4.76 |
| 4 | MIKKO KOIVU | MIN | 70 | 0.08 | 2.46 | 4.27 |
| 5 | SIMON GAGNE | PHI | 67 | 0.04 | 2.27 | 4.34 |
| 6 | MANNY MALHOTRA | CBJ | 67 | 0.05 | 2.02 | 6.34 |
| 7 | TAYLOR PYATT | VAN | 63 | 0.04 | 2.34 | 5.14 |
| 8 | MIKE RICHARDS | PHI | 67 | 0.06 | 2.51 | 5.15 |
| 9 | JOE PAVELSKI | S.J | 69 | 0.01 | 1.99 | 4.13 |
| 10 | JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER | N.J | 70 | 0.07 | 1.83 | 7.54 |
| 11 | HENRIK ZETTERBERG | DET | 67 | 0.05 | 2.40 | 5.82 |
| 12 | P. J. AXELSSON | BOS | 69 | 0.02 | 1.85 | 5.89 |
| 13 | MIKE KNUBLE | PHI | 70 | 0.06 | 2.39 | 6.34 |
| 14 | JOEL WARD | NSH | 68 | 0.00 | 2.24 | 2.64 |
| 15 | TRAVIS ZAJAC | N.J | 71 | 0.06 | 1.84 | 7.87 |
| 16 | MILAN MICHALEK | S.J | 66 | 0.01 | 1.80 | 5.95 |
| 17 | ERIC BELANGER | MIN | 67 | 0.02 | 2.32 | 4.75 |
| 18 | RENE BOURQUE | CGY | 58 | 0.03 | 2.19 | 6.24 |
| 19 | PAVEL DATSYUK | DET | 71 | 0.05 | 2.15 | 7.13 |
| 20 | PATRICK MARLEAU | S.J | 71 | 0.02 | 2.25 | 5.39 |
| 21 | JOHN MADDEN | N.J | 65 | 0.04 | 2.22 | 6.78 |
| 22 | JEFF CARTER | PHI | 70 | 0.06 | 2.70 | 5.65 |
| 23 | DAVID LEGWAND | NSH | 71 | 0.03 | 2.36 | 6.03 |
| 24 | ERIC NYSTROM | CGY | 65 | -0.10 | 1.64 | 3.39 |
| 25 | CHRIS DRURY | NYR | 72 | 0.04 | 2.72 | 4.65 |
| 26 | STEPHANE YELLE | BOS | 67 | -0.02 | 1.24 | 6.14 |
| 27 | PATRICE BERGERON | BOS | 56 | 0.04 | 2.15 | 7.38 |
| 28 | DEAN MCAMMOND | NYI | 55 | -0.06 | 1.71 | 4.49 |
| 29 | KAMIL KREPS | FLA | 57 | -0.06 | 1.62 | 5.12 |
| 30 | WOJTEK WOLSKI | COL | 71 | 0.03 | 2.78 | 3.44 |
I watch a lot of hockey, but the status of Kamil Kreps's defensive game isn't on my radar. Maybe it's on yours.
Players who just missed being on the list and get an honourable mention include Alfredsson, Nash, Bolland, Handzus, Reasoner, Burrows, Kesler and Vermette.
As for the players who are on the list, there are quite a few of the usual suspects, and I've been saying all season that either Mikko Koivu or Mike Richards should be the front-runners for the award. Joe Pavelski deserves a mention, too (and if there was an 'underrated' award, he'd be up there).
Manny Malholtra's quietly had an excellent season in Columbus, as has Ward in Nashville and Wolski on a brutal Avalanche team.
And it's pretty interesting to see what the Devils look like defensively without leaning so heavily on Madden and Pandolfo. A big reason for their success has been some excellent defensive play from guys like Elias and Langenbrunner.
As always, I'm open to tweaking this list and how I come up with the results, so if you see someone who's way out of place, let me know.
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Malkin
No Malkin, really? He does lead in takeaways
by btumpak on Mar 23, 2009 11:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He hasn’t hardly played at all shorthanded. I’m not sure takeaways are an accurate enough stat to base a major trophy on them.
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Malkin’s been the best forward in the NHL, but not the best defensive forward.
by Hooks Orpik on Mar 23, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PYATT?
Pyatt is the worst player on the team. (Not counting the goon and rookie)
by kn0body on Mar 23, 2009 11:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
There seems to be some truth to this.
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem, as I’ve stated elsewhere, is not that Pyatt is bad, it is that people haven’t reevaluated their expectations from when he was brought in. He was initially brought in to play with the Sedins. That didn’t work, and everyone still thinks he’s a bust from that. Now that he has a role (he’s been the best PK forward the entire season iirc.) and is doing well as a defensive forward and contributing as a third liner then that is what we have to evaluate his success based on. His contract is decent for that level of return.
by rsm on Mar 23, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Koivu is out for the rest of the season with his knee injury, how much would that hurt his chances?
The Wild depend on him for almost everything except goaltending.
"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams
by Baroque on Mar 23, 2009 12:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
His chances were probably slim already given he has almost no profile outside of Minnesota right now. If he’s out for 10 games, he’s got zero chance of winning.
I’m almost convinced Richards wins this season.
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another candidate worthy of consideration (I don’t think he should win the Selke) is Eric Staal. He probably falls a little short on your penalty kill cuttoffs (1:23 per game) but the rest of his case looks very solid. He plays a lot of minutes for the Hurricans against tough opposition and with poor quaity of teammates and is doing very well defensively. He is taking over for Rod Brind’Amour in Carolina.
by PuckStopsHere on Mar 23, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Aren’t Malhotra and Vermette near the top of the league in faceoffs as well. Pretty strong team down the middle.
by pj48 on Mar 23, 2009 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Vermette’s had about a point a game the last 30 or so. I think he can do it.
Ottawa will regret that trade.
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One stat I’d love to see this list take into account is the percentage of ES faceoffs a player is on the ice for that are taken in the defensive zone. In general, it’d help players on bad teams (they get fewer head-start offensive zone draws from teammates at the start of their shifts), help identify defensive players who don’t have two-way roles (Draper only takes the hard draws, which hurts his numbers compared to Datsyuk or Zetterberg), and helps identify offensive players who have good defensive numbers because of the easy minutes they play (Hudler would be an example if his ESGA numbers weren’t terrible already). It’s not easily available, although Vic Ferrari has a script at his site that will slowly crunch the numbers: timeonice.com/teamfaceoffs.php
This metric also helps show just how tremendous Johan Franzen has been defensively at ES this year. He takes relatively more defensive zone draws than either Zetterberg or Datsyuk, has a qualcomp of 0.04, and an ESGA of 1.90. He’s jumped between playing with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, or Hossa, but whoever he’s playing with must be getting it done, and the other two are getting (relatively) lit up.
by RyanV on Mar 23, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What happened to Stoll and Handzus?
The West Coast is the Best Coast.
by RudyKelly on Mar 23, 2009 6:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Presumably they were on the ice for more goals against?
by James Mirtle on Mar 23, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How important is it to the Penguins success/failure this season that there isn’t a single Penguin on that list?
by robynwins on Mar 23, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Chicken or the egg?
What comes first the defensive team or the defensive forward?
I’m relatively comfortable in assuming that Minnesota would feature highly in this list most years, but none of their players win Selkes. Is that fair?
In my opinion it is. Manny Malhotra and Antti Miettinen will therefore probably left waiting for their nomiations for some time.
My ideal defensive forward plays on a team that scores not on a team full of slightly lesser defensive forwards. As such, i’d be looking at Zetterberg again, along with Datsyuk, Elias, Gagne and Malkin.
by Topham on Mar 24, 2009 5:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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