Will the rats ever come back? Panthers' hopes fading fast

by James Mirtle on Mar 26, 2009 6:00 AM CDT Comment 32 comments

Rat_ice2_large_medium

The Panthers have had more than their share of third period meltdowns in their history, but Wednesday's was one that could be come legendary. Buffalo, a team on the cusp of being eliminated from the playoff race, gained new life by scoring four goals in the third period to beat the Panthers 5-3 at HSBC Arena.

– George Richards, Miami Herald

At the trade deadline, Florida was in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, one point back of Montreal and four back of Philadelphia. They were red hot, and looking up the standings instead of down.

GM Jacques Martin entertained offers for stud defenceman Jay Bouwmeester, but ultimately decided to stand pat. He was hoping his club could not only make the playoffs but take a run, and convince one of his shining stars that it wasn't hopeless in South Florida.

And they've been brutal ever since.

Florida's won just twice in the last three weeks, going 2-5-3 while the rest of the conference's bubble teams all stormed past. And as much as I've defended him in the past, Bouwmeester shares in the blame.

The Panthers are still only two points out of the final playoff spot, but I doubt anyone's smart money is on their being able to pull this one out. They've got a relatively difficult schedule, with two road games in Philadelphia and home dates versus Pittsburgh and Washington, and the Habs have a game in hand in eighth spot. There's also the Sabres to worry about, and they might finally be able to pull out of their funk with Ryan Miller coming back Friday against the Leafs.

These last eight games very well could be Bouwmeester's last in a Panthers uniform after 470 without a single playoff appearance, and I don't think anyone will begrudge him that decision. But you already know the naysayers are on the way, and that Martin's decision March 4 to roll the dice and go with the group he's got is about to be criticized by pundits everywhere.

He gambled big, hoping for the best from a group likely two or three years away from a real chance, and it looks like it'll cost them.

The fact is, this is a team that coach Pete DeBoer coaxed an awful lot out of this season, a group that really wasn't ready for a postseason run but almost surprised everyone on the basis of sheer pluck and good goaltending. They weren't supposed to be there, and looking back, shouldn't have tried, but given the situation, can you blame them?

The eight-year playoff drought looks like it will stretch to nine, and with Bouwmeester walking out the door, you wonder if the end's in sight. Columbus is about to end its seven-season run without the playoffs, but Florida?

They're headed into record territory.

All-time playoff droughts

Team	Previous appearance	Next appearance	Postseason drought
G. Seals / Barons / N. Stars	69–70	79–80	9 seasons
Rockies / Devils	77–78	87–88	9 seasons
Boston Bruins	58–59	67–68	8 seasons
Washington Capitals	never	82–83	8 seasons
Detroit Red Wings	69–70	77–78	7 seasons
New York Islanders	93–94	01–02	7 seasons
Calgary Flames	95–96	03–04	7 seasons
New York Rangers	96–97	05–06	7 seasons
Columbus Blue Jackets	never	08-09*	7 seasons
Florida Panthers	99–00	?	7 seasons

*- projected

0 recs | Comment 32 comments | Add comment | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Personally, I love it. Nothing against the Panthers ordinarily, but I’ve really been pulling for a playoff miss after that “Jokinen the scapegoat” crap from the summer. DeBoer has done an awesome job, hopefully they’ll get a new GM to actually build on their strong youth.

Have to say that I’m shocked that the Flames’ drought was THAT long.

by Malurous on Mar 26, 2009 7:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

…but given the situation, can you blame them?

Yes. The job of a GM is (or should be) to win a Cup, not play a couple of playoff games. Losing one of the best defencemen in the league for nothing is a terrible policy. It was a bad move on Martin’s part not to trade him at the deadline – if the Panthers miss out on a couple of home playoff dates this spring, it does nothing but put an exclamation mark on an already terrible decision.

by smyttysmullet on Mar 26, 2009 8:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe that he would have chosen differently if the drought wasn’t as long as it is. Making the playoffs would help attract fans. I fully agree that it was a very bad decision from a hockey point of view.

by Malurous on Mar 26, 2009 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The job of a GM is (or should be) to win a Cup, not play a couple of playoff games

Don Waddell has no idea what you’re talking about.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Mar 26, 2009 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LMAO!

by CP2Devil on Mar 26, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The funny thing is that everyone knew Martin would blow it and he came through with flying colours.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Mar 26, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was taking the long view, thinking that if the team could make the playoffs and maybe make a series of it, Buowmeester might be convinced to stay. Given their playoff position at the time, I can’t blame him if he decided that he was only entertaining offers that helped now as well as later.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Mar 26, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think that’s fair. And he really looked at trading him but wasn’t getting much in return. Bieksa and Raymond?

Looking back, they should have done something like that, but when they were within one point of fifth in the conference, do you make that call?

by James Mirtle on Mar 26, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The job of a GM is (or should be) to win a Cup, not play a couple of playoff games.

There are 30 teams in the NHL – 1 of whom gets to win a Cup each year. Odds are most teams will not win a cup, obviously. And for teams that are losing money and struggling to survive, making the playoffs is often the more important, and most realistic short term goal. Playoff revenues go to the team only – I dont think its changed that players don’t get paid by the team for playoffs. You hear stories all the time about players

So maybe Martin did exactly what his owners wanted (but would never say) – “do whats best to get us into the playoffs short-term, and, btw, don’t lock us into a long-term expensive contract when its likely that the cap is going to drop in the next few years”.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/

by poploser on Mar 26, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The job of a GM is (or should be) to win a Cup, not play a couple of playoff games.

Part of building a Cup contender is getting players with playoff experience, or at least that’s what I’ve been led to believe. What better way to get core players with playoff experience than to have your team play in the playoffs?

Should Vancouver have dumped all of their UFAs just because their chances of winning are extremely slim? Should Chicago have ditched Khabibulin? It seems that fans have become obsessed with tanking these days; I wonder if Crosby and Ovechkin are actually having a negative influence. I’m imagining a league where everyone outside the top eight pulls the plug halfway through the season, and it’s just silly.

Martin took a gamble, and sometimes in sports you have to. Likely he did it not just to prove to Bouwmeester that they could do it, but the rest of his young core players as well. They were in sixth and perhaps he wanted to send a message to his team that he believed in them. It looks like he’s losing his gamble, but he made his point.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Mar 26, 2009 9:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

reply fail

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Mar 26, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m imagining a league where everyone outside the top eight pulls the plug halfway through the season, and it’s just silly.

Well that’s part of the reason why the trade deadline is so “early” – at least 80% of the teams are still realistically in it at the deadline so that stuff DOESN’T happen.

I do agree with one point though that I’ve also seen – if fans of a team don’t think they have a shot at the Cup, they all just want to tank.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Mar 26, 2009 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess it depends on perception. To me, if my team doesn’t make the playoffs it means it’s rebuilding. Or it should be, if it’s not.
Therefore, if my team doesn’t make the playoffs, I’d rather they unload on the pending UFAs and get picks/prospects in return – and tank the season for the highest pick possible.

As for Martin’s situation, I don’t think you can blame him. Obviously even at the deadline the Panthers weren’t considered Cup favorites by any stretch of the imagination. But everything can happen in the playoffs right? It seemed rather plausible that they would make the playoffs at that point so I think keeping Bouwmeester wasn’t a bad call at the time.

by Habs on Mar 26, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don’t think keeping Bouwmeester was a bad call at the time either. Of course, that may also depend on what exactly was offered to Florida in return. What exactly did they pass up on? You’d have to figure it would be (at the least) an established NHL player, a top prospect, and a 1st round pick. We can sit here and debate all we want, but unless we know that, there’s no way of saying they really made a bad choice. The market may have made the choice FOR them, which is also the case in your first point.

Sure, they can unload the pending UFA’s, but what exactly are they getting back in return? The Sabres have tried to trade Afinogenov for months, but Darcy Regier has repeatedly said there just “wasn’t a market” for him.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Mar 26, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

80% of teams still have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but the list of Cup contenders is much smaller. The comment that I failed to reply to correctly held that simply making the playoffs wasn’t a good enough reason not to tank.

I do think it might be the influence of seeing Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin rise so quickly that has led to this fascination with tanking. Fans forget that most first overall picks are just good players and think they’ll end up with world-beaters. Surely the presence of teams like the Islanders and Blue Jackets on that list should provide a cautionary tale.

Here’s another reason for caution: Mike Modano was drafted first overall in 1988. Since then, how many first overall picks have won the Cup in their careers?

Answer: Vincent Lecavalier. There’ve been some great players taken first, but it hasn’t worked out for their teams.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Mar 26, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not only did Martin want to send a statement to his team, saying that he believed in them, but also, who knows what a trade will do to a team? Everyone and their mother thinks “oh, adding this guy could never backfire”, but look at what happened to Vancouver when they added Sundin. When you have a team that is overachieving beyond anything that ought to be reasonably expected, you never know what could make them “wake up” and come back to Earth. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? They were on a roll, and he tried to stay out of the way and let them keep rolling. Instead, the team stopped on him.

I don’t really fault Martin, but that whole situation makes this a double gut punch to the fans. :-(

by IAmJoe on Mar 26, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Man's Land Again?

1) Amazing that the Panthers fall into the NHL No Man’s land every year. No man’s land= no playoffs AND no lottery picks
2) If they fail to make the post season, AND lose Bouwmeester then its strike 3, you’re out Mr Martin!

by Fauxrumors on Mar 26, 2009 9:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

but given the situation, can you blame them?

Yes. Yes I can.

by Kent Wilson on Mar 26, 2009 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, from an objective standpoint, I agree, but I mean from their point of view. The drought is getting awfully long, and they really need to sell some tickets down there.

by James Mirtle on Mar 26, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still don’t blame them for not trading Bouwmeester. They might as well have raised the white flag while in 6th place if they did that. What a terrible message to send to the fanbase and to the young players you’re trying to build around.

If anything, maybe Martin should be blamed for not adding something up front at the deadline. I’m not talking about a swing for the fences trade for huge star player, but all they did was a Welch for Eminger trade and didn’t make a move to get a forward.

It’s unfortunate they’ve gone into a tailspin at the worst time, but I don’t blame them for sticking to their cards. I think trading JayBo would have been the worst thing they could have done.

by Hooks Orpik on Mar 26, 2009 10:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Apparently

Gaining one point on Florida since the trade deadline is “storming past” them. Go figure.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Mar 26, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Habs are lucky Florida and Buffalo have both tanked simultaneously … could be a lot uglier than it is, no?

by James Mirtle on Mar 26, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed it could! Every morning for the past 2 weeks when I get up I check the standings, and every single morning I’ve been stunned to see that we were still in 8th, despite losing miserably night after night. I mean, we went on a 6 game losing streak, the worst in over 2 years, and still managed to cling to 8th!

by Habs on Mar 26, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Playoffs or not, Florida’s failure to move Bouwmeester at the deadline was a short-sighted decision. The Panthers could have added two competent and signed NHL players and likely still remained on the same playoff trajectory. Who would have thought selling high could be so tough.

http://puckreport.blogspot.com

by puckreport on Mar 26, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Making the playoffs means playoff revenue, a season ticket boost…

Not many teams lose one of the top 10 blueliners in the game and then just bounce back like nothing happened. Even if they got a return for it, it likely wouldn’t have been a huge boost going forward. The likelihood of being up a top 4 d-man or top six forward as a result is pretty low in reality. Even when Philly dealt Forsberg they got Upshall and Parent… neither of whom yet are a top 4 d-man or top six forward.

If Jay Bo really is leaving, they can try and move him for a draft pick in June.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Mar 26, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think the decision to keep Bouwmeester was a bad decision. Did it work out? It looks like it won’t but that doesn’t mean it was a bad decision.

Go back to trade dealine and as James mentioned hey were in 6th place, 1 point back of Montreal and 4 back of Philly. They were the best team in the league since January at that point. They were a team looking to get possibly get home ice advantage in the first round. Has there eveer been a team that was a seller in that position?

Your job as a team is to win, I think that simple concept is lost on many pundits. That means you just don’t sell off your upcoming UFA’s just because they are upcoming UFA’s. The only time you do is when you are clearly out of it. A team that sits a couple points out of home ice at the time isn’t in that position. That means the only way he should have traded J-Bou was is he got equal value back, but no team is going to give equal value for a pending UFA. So he made the right decision by not trading him.

Now the Panthers have since gone in full choke mode and have lost what looked to be a sure playoff spot. That doesn’t mean the decision was wrong, you have to go and look at the circumstances at the time of the trade.

by jkrdevil on Mar 26, 2009 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Or perhaps some pundits actually understand what it “takes to win” in the long-term. Anyone paying attention to the Panthers this season saw that their play-offs dreams were built on bounces and unsustainable goaltending and were therefore illusory. This isn’t a “choke” – this is a natural correction. A team with a dearth of goal getters who gives up 40 shots per game isn’t going anywhere in the post season and “improvement” should be the primary goal above and beyond trying to ride rainbows unicorns into any unlikely and /or short lived play-off berth.

by Kent Wilson on Mar 26, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't blame him at all with Bouwmeester

All the teams that were really rumored to be making a big play for Bouwmeester at the deadline, from what I remember, were teams wedged right up at the cap. So, yeah, Florida probably could have got some “proven” NHL talent back in return, but that might have amounted to getting bad contracts in exchange for JayBo. I remember that Flyers rumor…wasn’t it something like Carle and Lupul for Bouwmeester?

With their attendance problems and the cap dropping in the next couple of years, I don’t blame them one bit for not wanting to take on some bloated contracts like the ones in that rumor above. If the Flyers had offered something like Coburn, Upshall, and a UFA like Knuble for him, then yeah you do it no questions asked. I’m sure that was never on the table though.

But I really think most of the Bouwmeester offers were probably teams that wanted to rent him short term, but because of cap concerns, had to trade about equal salary back to get him. And since nobody would rent Bouwmeester without the intent of making a real cup run, I’m guessing the teams weren’t offering very good roster players with good contract status’ in return.

by Make a play Whitner on Mar 26, 2009 11:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Awww...The Generalissimo

New York Rangers 96–97 05–06 7 seasons

As a big fan of Glen Sather, ahem, I always like to be reminded of how big his impact on the NYR has been. Thanks!

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/

by poploser on Mar 26, 2009 12:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

1) Spector just did a nice post on the benefits of the salary cap. How its helped smaller markets, etc. However, after seeing that stat about NY, it seems the cap helped the Rangers as much as anyone! Saving themselves from themselves!

by Fauxrumors on Mar 26, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drury, Gomez, and Redden would beg to differ.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Mar 26, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh...

I dont think the cap had anything to do with it – what Sather did was benefit from a combination of dumb luck and circumstances.

He got lucky that Washington wanted to get rid of Jagr so bad they ate half his salary for years.
He got lucky that Shanahan wanted to play in NY more than anywhere else.
He got lucky that Lundqvist stayed in Sweden a few years and came over as a more seasoned rookie.
He got lucky that Avery somehow plays 2x as well as a Ranger than anywhere else.

Look what happens when Sather is forced to build his own team in the salary cap era?

He signs 2 2nd-line centers to long-term 1st-line contracts.
He drives away the 2 players who want to play here more than anywhere else (Jagr and Shanahan) and replaces them with Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev. [Admittedly, the jury is still out on Zherdev, but there is a chance he won’t even be back next year]
He signs Redden and Rosival to long-term 1st pair D man contracts, based upon the belief that Redden is the “”http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=242200" target="new">best first passer in the game" and Rosival on…well…who knows what. Both stink up the ice, so he has to go out and get another expensive 2nd pair D-man, Morris.

How is he going to fit all these players (not to mention Antropov and Staal when his entry-level contract expires) into a world where he Cap is likely to go down? He’s going to need to play a lot of 3rd/4th line and 3rd pair defensemen who are earning the league minimum, unless the NHL/NHLPA decide to amend the CBA rules.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/

by poploser on Mar 26, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs