Measuring the Central Division's dominance

by James Mirtle on Mar 31, 2009 1:23 AM CDT Comment 11 comments

Everyone's atwitter over the Central Division these days, mainly because all five teams in the division are currently in the the top eight in the Western Conference. That hasn't happened in 28 years, which is pretty exciting for your average hockey pundit.

A couple points to look at here before I get to the numbers:

Yes, the Central is, in fact, the best division in hockey, and no it's not just the Red Wings' dominance skewing things.
There's little chance all five teams make it in. What we're really seeing is a quirk in the schedule.

I'll try and address both points here all in one go.

The NHL's revamped its schedule a bit this season, dropping the number of in-division games to six per team from the eight per team we've seen the past three seasons. That's made a five-teams-from-one-division-in-the-playoffs scenario more plausible because there are more points available outside of a strong division for teams to pile up.

By the numbers, what all that means is, this season, each division has 410 games as usual (5 x 82), but only 120 are in-division (29%) and the other 290 are played against other divisions in their conference or the other conference entirely. The previous three seasons, inter-division games made up 160 games (39%), which isn't an insignificant difference.

Here are the totals for games played outside of the division:

	Division	GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	/82
1	CENTRAL	282	155	98	29	339	98.6
2	ATLANTIC	269	139	103	27	305	93.0
3	NORTHEAST	272	135	99	38	308	92.9
4	PACIFIC	277	133	112	32	298	88.2
5	SOUTHEAST	275	128	110	37	293	87.4
6	NORTHWEST	275	135	119	21	291	86.8

So, Point No. 1, the Central is pretty darn good at beating up on other divisions. Columbus, for example, is 13-3-2 against the Eastern Conference, and the Central is a combined 20-9-3 against the Southeast.

It's not just Detroit, either. The Red Wings have gone 14-5-1 against teams within their own division (a 119-point pace full season) and 35-13-8 against other teams (a 114-point pace). Chicago and Columbus, however, have picked up far more points outside of the Central than against opponents in their division.

The other thing to note is that the Central has so far played the most out-of-division games in the league this season, and therefore has the most inter-divisional games coming up. In fact, 20 per cent of the division's inter-divisional games are sandwiched into these final 13 days of the season.

Games remaining against Central teams:

Chicago = 7
Columbus = 5
Nashville = 5
Detroit = 4
St. Louis = 3

What I expect to see over the next two weeks is that, because the Central teams are playing each other so often (75 per cent of their remaining games), there should be some points left on the table. Columbus, Nashville and St. Louis can't all possibly run the table given they'll be facing one another (plus Detroit and Chicago), and it's likely going to take quite a run to get in.

That's good news for Anaheim, Edmonton and Minnesota.

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Rain on my parade, James…

Hooray, Central Division!

by IAmJoe on Mar 31, 2009 1:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

St. Louis is second on points garnered against their in-division foes.

By the way.

SWYD

by gallagher on Mar 31, 2009 2:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You tell 'em, Juan!

And yeah . . . as much as I’d LOVE to see the whole Central make the playoffs . . . looks like with that many in-division games left, probably won’t happen.

Which is why the Blues need to just . . . y’know . . . run the table. Screw everyone else.

"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields

by Donut King on Mar 31, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wait for next year, when all the teams have playoff race experience behind them. No more Central Cupcakes. :)

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Mar 31, 2009 6:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Can’t forget though about those dreaded “3 point games”! It would be a nice story to see all the teams get in.

by Fauxrumors on Mar 31, 2009 9:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was just going to point this out. OTWs all around!

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Mar 31, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think these teams are going to need more than OTL points to get in. It’s possible, just not plausible.

by James Mirtle on Mar 31, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A similar thing happened last year down the stretch in the Northwest. All 5 were in good position, but Vancouver fell apart in their inter-division matchups, and Nashville also found a way in right at the end by playing well against their own division.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Mar 31, 2009 10:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Almost as amazing would be seeing three Southeast teams make the playoffs for the second time in league history, and first time since 1996.

http://puckreport.blogspot.com/2009/03/se-division-earning-their-seeding.html

by puckreport on Mar 31, 2009 1:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The other thing to note is that the Central has so far played the most out-of-division games in the league this season, and therefore has the most inter-divisional games coming up.

I believe you mean intra-divisional here, James.

by voline on Mar 31, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's look at the schedules...

True, the Central Division has many intra-divisional games left, but let’s take out the ones who are almost certainly “in”: Detroit and Chicago. We’ve got Columbus, Nashville, and St. Louis left, with Nashville and St. Louis both on the bubble. Despite having many intra-divisonal games left, they DO NOT play each other. Thus, it’s more probable than it seems that they might be able to stay right where they are while gaining points against the others already in the playoff picture.

Nashville does play Columbus twice, but if they split those games, they are relatively safe as long as they can win half the remaining games. 2 are against Chicago and one is against Detroit, but their final game is against Minnesota, which might be the most important one since Minnesota is still in the race, and their playoff destiny could very well come down to that game.

St. Louis plays one game each against Chicago, Columbus, and Detroit. Assuming they win two of those three, they only have to deal with the bottom-dwellers in their other three games: Dallas, Colorado, and Phoenix. It’s quite possible their schedule allows them to win and get in.

The most intriguing thing is the matchups between the other bubble teams. If Edmonton wins tonight, against Anaheim (another bubble team), that keeps the bottom two playoff spots in tact for yet another day. Four of Edmonton’s five other games are against the higher-up teams (SJ, Vancouver, 2 against Calgary)…so it’s possible that they don’t fare so well in the final stretch despite playing 5 of 6 at home. If they win tonight, I think it makes it even more difficult for those bottoms spots to go to non-Central teams.

Anaheim needs to win tonight to get back into the playoff race, because their remaining schedule has them away for 4 out of 6 games, containing a home-and-home against SJ. If they don’t win tonight and just split the points in their remaining games, they’re not going to be able to make it in.

Minnesota is the final bubble team. Their schedule isn’t too easy; they face Calgary and Detroit, and also a surging Nashville team amongst their last six. Again, if they split the points in their remaining games, they’re likely not going to make it in.

Call me an optimist, but I do think it’s possible we could see all five get in. I know it’s not necessarily “likely”, but it’s just as “likely” as any other scenario. Of course, that OTL point screws everything up anyway, so I’m probably going to end up being completely wrong.

by jameshstephenson on Mar 31, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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