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Latest loss likely sinks Oilers' season

Anaheim Ducks defenceman Sheldon Brookbank celebrates his goal past Edmonton Oilers goalie Dwayne Roloson during the first period last night in Edmonton.

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

Anaheim Ducks defenceman Sheldon Brookbank celebrates his goal past Edmonton Oilers goalie Dwayne Roloson during the first period last night in Edmonton.

The Oilers are 16-14-6 in 36 games at Rexall Place this season, second-worst in the Western Conference ahead of only the Kings (yeesh). Meanwhile, the Ducks' 19 road wins is tied for third-best in the conference.

In fact, things have gotten so bad for the Oilers at home, the players have taken this desperate measure of looking into the camera and practically begging fans for their support tonight and the rest of this six-game homestand that was gift-wrapped to them from the NHL schedulers. I'm sorry, isn't this Canadian hockey? Isn't that support already there?

— Adam Brady, Director of Publications for the Ducks

David Staples is right: Brady does run a pretty strange blog for a team staffer. Still, it's a more interesting read than most.

Tuesday night, Brady's Ducks got the better of Staples's Oilers, winning 5-3 with an empty-netter thrown in for good measure. I only caught a bit of the game, after Edmonton was already down 3-1, and they did make a bit of a third-period rally. Given the standings, however, they desperately needed a win.

The Oilers are now three points out in an incredibly tight race for the final two or three playoff spots, and would have to leapfrog at least one red-hot team to get in. According to sportsclubstats.com, Edmonton had a 22.5-per-cent chance of making the postseason prior to this one, odds that have now fallen to 8.1 per cent with a loss.

With five games left, they essentially need at least nine points to get up to 90, and even that won't give them an iron-clad guarantee of getting in. Yes, they've got a lot of home games, but as Brady's pointed out, Edmonton's been brutal at Rexall Place — and Oilers fans have let them know it.

There'll be no shortage of eulogies in the Oilers wing of the blogosphere, so you don't need to hear me blather on too long about what went wrong. Pat McLean started writing his before the game was over.

He obviously knew what was coming:

Its 4-1 Ducks right now and another season goes down the toilet and there is plenty of blame to go around. There is Lowe who dismantled a club that came within a break or two of winning a Cup and turned it into a laughing stock. He escapes censure (even now Tambellini will likely get blame for this team that Lowe put together) but the last three years have been pisspoor.

The players deserve blame because they are the ones who play the game in the end but this team looked off almost from day one. Too many poor starts. Too many poor games. Points given away all through the season. Only right before the break did they look like they had any heart and of course in the end that is the killer.

He's right, of course, but I do think there's an argument to be made that losing Lubomir Visnovsky was one of the real killers of the Oilers' season. He quietly had a great year (although Edmonton's record was only 25-23-3 with him in the lineup, so there were obviously shortfalls with him healthy).

The Oilers finished ninth in the West last season, narrowly missing the cut, and by the numbers there are a lot of similarities to this year's edition. The biggest single difference is a penalty kill that's gone from fifth best to fifth worst in the NHL, but this is still a team that manged to score more goals per game and average fewer against than a year ago (at least prior to five going in against the Ducks).

That's generally a recipe for success, albeit not always when the standings lean so heavily on the bonus point. Edmonton went 6-4 in the shootout this season. Last year, they were an improbable 15-4.

Sometimes it's simply the coin flips that do you in.

McLean says coach Craig MacTavish is about to fall on his sword, and it's tough to argue with that. This is his eighth season behind Edmonton's bench, and only once has one of his teams managed to finish higher than third in its division. They've made three playoff appearances in that time, all as an underdog, and while there was that one streak of brilliance in 2006, coaching is as much of a what have you done for me lately racket as anything.

Besides, the natives are restless. And someone has to wear the goat horns.

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Sometimes it's simply the coin flips that do you in.

And the main reason why either

- shootouts should be abolished (I don’t agree with, because I think they still do have their place) or

- the NHL should tweak the scoring system to make all games worth the same (3-2-1-0) or just make a SO win worth 1 point instead of 2 with any loser getting 0 (2-1-0).

All Edmonton’s 16-4 SO record did last year was make a lottery team look better than it really was and actually (arguably) COST them in the long-run.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Apr 1, 2009 7:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree that the points system should be reworked. I would be in favor of a 2-0 system: a win is 2 points, no matter how you acquire it, and a loss is 0. Simple and efficient.

by Habs on Apr 1, 2009 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that way, in a tie game you wouldn’t see teams shutting down with 10 minutes left in the third to try and ‘preserve that one point’. Hate that concept.

by Habs on Apr 1, 2009 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simple and efficient.

And lame. As it stands, shootouts and 4-on-4 OTs contribute too much to who makes it and who doesn’t - not very efficient when both game“deciding” mechanisms disappear in the postseason. I don’t think it needs to be exacerbated further.

Too often people refer to the loser point as the extra point in a 3-point game, but I’m much more comfortable with a point earned through 60 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey (you know, postseason hockey) than the point earned through a game-ending sideshow. I guess I’m amicable to a 3-point system, but please, no 2 or nothing. It’s already too distortive.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Apr 1, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ignore the strike-through on that text. Stupid helpful SBN.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Apr 1, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As it stands, shootouts and 4-on-4 OTs contribute too much to who makes it and who doesn’t – not very efficient when both game"deciding" mechanisms disappear in the postseason. I don’t think it needs to be exacerbated further.

Too often people refer to the loser point as the extra point in a 3-point game, but I’m much more comfortable with a point earned through 60 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey (you know, postseason hockey) than the point earned through a game-ending sideshow.

If only this argument could fit on my tombstone. So tired of the distortion of the value of 60 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey. I’m afraid there’s no turning back from this “the People demand a winner” gimmick, so a 3-point system may be the only hope to at least have standings and games be more reflective of what actually happened.

But how people ever got so impatient with the concept of splitting two points after 60 (or 65) minutes of even effort is beyond me.

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Apr 1, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m afraid there’s no turning back from this "the People demand a winner" gimmick, so a 3-point system may be the only hope to at least have standings and games be more reflective of what actually happened.

That’s the school of thought I’m in too.

I don’t like the shootout, I wish it would go away, but I do realize it’s not, so I deal with it. So let’s deal with it that protects the integrity of a regulation win and doesn’t leave playoff bids to “lucky” teams.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Apr 1, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And to the "but it destroys all the records!" crowd

We’ve already skewed both team and goalie win records with shootout wins. Going to a 3-2-1-0 system is no different.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Apr 1, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing I’d be interested in seeing, and I’m not sure if someone has put the #’s together, is what the difference in the standing would be under a 3 point system.

Of course, that wouldn’t translate perfectly, because teams would have more motivation to win in regulation than in OT/SO under the 3 pt system, but it would give us an idea of the difference it would make.

by Shabbadoo on Apr 1, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lots of people do that post every season. As you noted, the difference lies in the change in approach going forward rather than applying the numbers on previous years.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Apr 1, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

MacT

If he were coaching pretty much anywhere else, he would’ve been canned a long time ago. I don’t know why, after one of those ridiculous losses (10-2 and what not) Tambellini didn’t can him.

New forwards come to Edmonton, and they never seem to “fit in” with MacT’s system. Good established forwards, too, like Lupul and Cole, not just Penner. I’m not surprised that O’Sullivan and Kotalik haven’t fitted in like a glove.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Apr 1, 2009 9:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The truth is, in spite of the lack of leadership on that team, the Oilers are a better team this year than they were last year. As noted, their incredible luck in the shootout last year belied the fact that Edmonton had only 26 legitimate wins last season. The shootout offered the illusion that the 07-08 Oilers were better than they were, and created incredibly unreasonable expectations for this season – Thank the state-controlled media for that. They are up to 30 legitimate wins this season, with five games to go. All in all, this young team is moving in the right direction. One only has to scrape away the illusion to realize it.

by Resolute on Apr 2, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs


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