2008-09's top defensive forwards

by James Mirtle on Apr 13, 2009 2:30 PM CDT in Statistics Comment 17 comments

Minnesota Wild centre Mikko Koivu is a leading candidate for the Selke Trophy this season.

With the season wrapped up, it's time for a statistical look at the top defensive players in the league this season. First, a look at the top defensive forwards and many of the players who should be the leading candidates for the Selke Trophy this season (10 shown in bold).

As always, this chart is based on (a) playing a significant amount of time shorthanded, (b) facing difficult even strength competition as determined by Behind The Net, and (c) keeping goals against down at even strength and while killing penalties when on the ice. Players also had to have played a minimum of 55 games this season.

	NAME	TM	GP	QCMP	EVGAA	SHGAA
1	ANTTI MIETTINEN	MIN	82	0.07	1.93	2.76
2	RYAN CALLAHAN	NYR	80	0.03	1.70	5.00
3	PATRIK ELIAS	N.J	77	0.03	2.13	2.94
4	MIKKO KOIVU	MIN	79	0.08	2.41	3.81
5	ERIC BELANGER	MIN	79	0.03	2.24	4.34
6	JOE PAVELSKI	S.J	80	0.02	1.99	4.38
7	MIKE RICHARDS	PHI	78	0.05	2.35	5.34
8	TAYLOR PYATT	VAN	69	0.05	2.37	4.64
9	ALEX BURROWS	VAN	82	0.04	2.32	5.80
10	MIKE KNUBLE	PHI	81	0.04	2.35	5.75
11	RENE BOURQUE	CGY	58	0.04	2.19	6.24
12	JAY MCCLEMENT	STL	82	0.04	2.35	5.82
13	SIMON GAGNE	PHI	78	0.02	2.24	4.89
14	P. J. AXELSSON	BOS	75	0.01	1.97	5.36
15	MILAN MICHALEK	S.J	77	0.01	1.83	5.97
16	MANNY MALHOTRA	CBJ	77	0.03	1.96	6.42
17	CHRIS DRURY	NYR	81	0.04	2.60	4.31
18	T.J. OSHIE	STL	57	-0.02	1.74	4.54
19	PAUL GAUSTAD	BUF	62	0.03	2.21	6.10
20	MATT CULLEN	CAR	69	0.02	1.93	6.22
21	DAVID LEGWAND	NSH	73	0.03	2.34	5.93
22	STEPHANE VEILLEUX	MIN	81	0.03	2.55	3.87
23	MARTY REASONER	ATL	79	0.04	1.84	8.39
24	DEAN MCAMMOND	NYI	62	-0.03	1.87	4.72
25	PATRICE BERGERON	BOS	64	0.04	2.00	7.64
26	RYAN KESLER	VAN	82	0.04	2.35	6.79
27	JEFF CARTER	PHI	81	0.04	2.62	5.61
28	PATRICK MARLEAU	S.J	76	0.02	2.39	5.47
29	JOEL WARD	NSH	79	0.01	2.44	3.69
30	HENRIK ZETTERBERG	DET	77	0.06	2.57	6.14

This is the first year I will have a vote on many of the NHL awards as a member of the PHWA, and I'll be using some of BtN's statistical data to help make those decisions. More on that to come.

There's obviously a lot of room for interpretation here. Miettinen shouldn't win the Selke because he's picking up a lot of his minutes alongside Koivu, who's really the defensive powerhouse on the line, and the same can be said for a few players here. What this list is is simply a statistical portrait of players playing defensive minutes and not being scored on, which should be where we start in looking at analyzing defensive play in hockey.

Players finishing just off the list include Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Datsyuk, Michal Handzus and John Madden.

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Comments

Man Crush

I have one on Manny Malhotra.

SWOON

Sports And The City

A Toronto sports blog, where we unequivocally and unapologetically support the home team...

PLAYOFFS!!!!1

by eyebleaf on Apr 13, 2009 2:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The NHL’s only player of Punjabi descent!

He’s played very well this season.

by James Mirtle on Apr 13, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he’s representing for us East Asians. And we’re hella proud of him. I’ve always liked him, a solid two-way player. Doesn’t score much, but is responsible, and a leader. Glad he’s going to the playoffs (!!!!1) with the Jackets.

Sports And The City

A Toronto sports blog, where we unequivocally and unapologetically support the home team...

PLAYOFFS!!!!1

by eyebleaf on Apr 13, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

one of the big Rangers’ draft busts who wasn’t drafted under Glen Sather!

[random fact – 5 of the first rounders that year have been on the Rangers’s roster over the past 12 months – Mark Bell [#8], Nikolai Antropov [#10], Dmitri Kalinin [#18], Christian Backman [#24], and Scott Gomez [#27].

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo

by poploser on Apr 13, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with a and b.

For a defensive award, i like your idea of giving credit to guys who play against tough offensive players as well as on the penalty kill.

Regarding c though, I think we can do better than looking at raw GAA. Two issues with using raw goals against is 1) it is influenced by a player’s own goaltender and 2) it is influenced by the variance of goal scoring rates in the sample size of one season.

Factoring in some sort of shot-related info would be better. Perhaps either adjusting for on-ice save percentage, or maybe looking at the defensive portion (i.e. – shots directed at own net) of team-adjusted Corsi, or maybe an Expected Goals Against based on a shot quality model, etc would be more ideal.

by sunnymehta.com on Apr 13, 2009 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

P.J. Axelsson: Like Patrice Bergeron without all that offensive skill.

Whatta guy!

Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure!

by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Apr 13, 2009 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait.

Why isn’t Elias’ name bolded? He fits the profile of a Selke nominee – productive scoring forward who plays defense well. Or does he not have the “reputation” and/or hurt by being on the same team as John Madden.

P.S. In the last list, both Zajac and Langenbrunner were on there – I guess they got bumped off? I mean, the Devils did slump in late March but I didn’t think either were that bad by it?

Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!

by John Fischer on Apr 13, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Elias doesn’t play much PK time and is a winger rather than a defensive centre. His numbers are strong, but he plays on a defensive team and with linemates who are strong defensively. I don’t think he’ll get a ton of Selke support.

Zajac and Langenbrunner fell just off the list.

by James Mirtle on Apr 13, 2009 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very glad to see Marty Reasoner on there.

He’s had a major season here – he’s probably the best 3rd liner we could hope for. He’s solid, and hopefully he hasn’t drawn too much attention from elsewhere. We’d really like to re-sign him for an extension… I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t get a sizable raise, too.

Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?

Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.

by hildymac on Apr 13, 2009 5:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

HONK

FOR THE GOOSE!

Nice to see a Buffalo player on a list for SOMETHING good.

Honk if you love Justice!
"I'm betting that I'm just abnormal enough to survive. "

by TheTick on Apr 13, 2009 6:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, I think Gaustad’s one of the most underrated players in the league.

by James Mirtle on Apr 13, 2009 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gaustad is a very nice player. But to me, a true Selke guy is your #1 option on the PK and a guy you consciously try to get out there against the other teams’ top center. For the Sabres, Gaustad is neither.

He’s good on faceoffs, and, yeah, he’s good defensively overall. But whenever possible, Ruff seemed to want to play Connolly’s line against the best the opponent had to offer.

Nothing against the Goose, but in my opinion, disregarding stats and +/- and all that stuff, Connolly is their best defensive centerman, not Gaustad. Just going by the eye test.

Does your metric consider the defensive quality of frequent linemates? Gaustad was generally paired with wingers that are considered more defensive- Paille, Hecht, Kotalik (at least the last couple years since he’s lost his 5 on 5 offensive touch), etc.

Connolly spent a ton of his time with wingers that don’t really pay attention to defense- Vanek and Stafford, and another with a reputation as a good defensive forward that didn’t play very well in that regard this year, Pominville.

by Make a play Whitner on Apr 14, 2009 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No it doesn’t. I try and keep it relatively simple, so it’s easily evident why they’re showing up on the list, and one of the main flaws is that players with good defensive linemates are rewarded (and vice versa).

by James Mirtle on Apr 14, 2009 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Gaustad’s play is easier to overlook. Timmy (obligatory ‘when healthy’) is more likely to steal the puck or deftly slip it away from opponents along the boards, where Gaustad is more likely to block shots or muscle out players in front of the net. Connolly’s play is fancier, but Goose’s is no less important.

Hecht was pretty bad this year, only good thing he did was blacken Lecavalier’s eye. ;)

Honk if you love Justice!
"I'm betting that I'm just abnormal enough to survive. "

by TheTick on Apr 14, 2009 5:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m impressed to see Oshie on there as a rookie…

Blue and Gold (of Buffalo)

by Ebscer on Apr 13, 2009 8:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kid is the Real Deal.

Whatever it takes?

by JoMilla on Apr 13, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I got that one wrong. I went back and checked his stats, and it looks like he played a lot of his worst games against the Gophers, so I wasn’t completely off base, just the victim of small sample size.

by J. Michael Neal on Apr 13, 2009 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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