ROUND 1

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston v. (8) Montreal
Series key: Carey Price

A rematch of last season's great series, albeit with the seedings reversed. The Habs are a bit beat up, but not so much so that they won't be ready for battle in this one, and I think this will likely be the most physical series in the first round. Boston's better built for a war, but I do think this series will take something out of them heading forward. There's a lot of pressure on some key Bruins like Tim Thomas, Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard here, but this team has been the class of the East all season and should be able to handle a Montreal team that's been in the headlines for the wrong reasons all year. One bad goal against on Price could open the floodgates.

(2) Washington v. (7) NY Rangers
Series key: Theodore v. Lundqvist

The defence has been much-maligned in New York all year, but the team's brutal offence — led by a Conference-worst power play — should be among the key concerns. The Rangers didn't have a single player top 58 points this season, and will have to be ultra-disciplined in order to limit Ovechkin and company's chances. Their one edge comes in goal, but if Jose Theodore's competent for the Caps, this shouldn't be close given all Washington's firepower.

(3) New Jersey v. (6) Carolina
Series key: Parise v. Staal

For me, this is the toughest first-round series to call. Frankly, it could go either way, and a lot of it depends on (a) how well Marty Brodeur plays and (b) who out of Zach Parise and Eric Staal continues their 40+ goal form in the playoffs. The Hurricanes will also need the Rod Brind'Amour and Cam Ward of the past 30 or so games to show up, and Anton Babchuk to continue to play like, well, not Anton Babchuk. It'll be a long one. Flip a coin.

(4) Pittsburgh v. (5) Philadelphia
Series key: Richards v. Malkin/Crosby

The post-deadline Penguins are an awful lot tougher team to shutdown than they were the first five months of the season. Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin have both worked quite well with Crosby so far, and the addition of Sergei Gonchar — who has put up nearly a point a game since his return — has been huge at both ends of the ice (although Dan Bylsma hasn't used him in much of a shutdown role). Malkin meanwhile seems able to produce offence no matter who he's out there with. For their part, the Flyers have had some excellent defensive performances up front, and Mike Richards could limit at least one of the super duo to relatively ordinary production. Where I really worry about Philadelphia is in goal, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see both goaltenders play at some point early in the series. The quality of the Flyers' blueline drops off significantly beyond Kimmo Timonen (who has been terrific this season) and Braydon Coburn and will definitely run into matchup issues against at least one of the Pens top lines. Besides, Pittsburgh strikes me as hungry after last year's whiff in the finals.

Western Conference

(1) San Jose v. (8) Anaheim
Series key: Jonas Hiller

Talk about a brutal eighth seed to draw in Round 1. Anaheim's biggest issue all season was in goal, where J.S. Giguere really struggled following the death of his father, and with Hiller in net, the Ducks posted a very solid 23-15-1 record with a .919 save percentage. In fact, Hiller's career numbers are terrific — there just aren't all that many of them (and none in the playoffs). And he'll be the starter going into Game 1. Good luck predicting how that'll go. As for the Sharks, well, they've had plenty of playoff chokes to this point, albeit under a different head coach, and it's going to be interesting to see if Todd McLellan can keep Joe Thornton on top of his game throughout another gruelling playoffs. That said, this is a far deeper and balanced team than the one that fell short last season, especially on the blueline, and I bet this is a low-scoring series that relies on special teams for a lot of its goals. In order to upset, Anaheim needs to be well disciplined — something it's struggled at as the West's most penalized team — and get some more magic out of Bobby Ryan. Expect the Battle of California to take something out of whoever advances.

(2) Detroit v. (7) Columbus
Series key: Nash v. Datsyuk/Zetterberg

It's so very, very tempting to take the upset here, but I can't quite bring myself to do it, not when it's just as easy to imagine Pavel Datsyuk and friends stifling the few offensive weapons Columbus has. There's a huge discrepancy in this series when it comes to these teams' regular season power play figures (first against worst) and no matter how good Steve Mason is in goal, he can't overcome that. The Blue Jackets are an underrated crew, especially on the blueline, but they just don't have the sort of scoring punch that can overcome what they'll face in this one. My money's still on Hitch making it interesting. 

(3) Vancouver v. (6) St. Louis
Series key: Sedins and the playoff jinx

You've got to tip your hat to Mike Gillis. No one looked at the roster he went into this season with and saw a team with balanced scoring and solid defence, and that's exactly what Vancouver looks like these days given the play of Alex Burrows, Ryan Kesler and Willie (Bill Pickle) Mitchell. I don't think this series will be a cakewalk for the Canucks, but I also see there being a little bit of a letdown for the plucky Blues, who have to be simply happy to be here at this point. The caveat? The Sedin twins have quietly had a phenomenal year in Vancouver, heavily outscoring difficult opposition all season (Daniel's close to Datysuk territory at 5-on-5), but their career playoff numbers aren't impressive at all and they're the guys carrying much of the load on this team. The reason the Canucks have had success is that the secondary scoring has stepped up, but that only holds if the No. 1 guys can continue to produce. Vancouver's hot streak over the tail end of the season was driven in large part by the Sedins' dominance, so the question is: Can they keep it up in what will likely be a physical, low-scoring series? If the answer's yes, the Canucks are a Cup contender given the way Luongo's likely to play.

(4) Chicago v. (5) Calgary
Series key: Flames battered blueline

For whatever reason, Nikolai Khabibulin has dominated Calgary in his career. In the regular season, his record is 22-5-2 all-time against the Flames, and coming off an excellent campaign and playing for his next contract, I bet the Bulin Wall's strong showing continues. Chicago isn't getting a lot of credit after a pretty impressive season, and a lot of their success does rest with some pretty young bodies, but I have to believe the Keith-Seabrook combination's dominance during the year against top opposition will continue. Add in the fact that Anders Eriksson's about to play a role on Calgary's blueline, and you have to believe the magic keeps coming for the 'Hawks. Playoff games at a soldout United Center are going to make for must-see TV.

The bracket

Last year, I had the Red Wings dumping the Rangers in the finals, a situation that was mucked up a bit when the Penguins dusted off New York in Round 2. I've only got one first-round upset this time around — the Hurricanes over the Devils — but I bet there's at least one more.

Everyone's picking the Sharks this season, and I just can't bring myself to do it given what we've seen out of them in the postseason the past few years. I'd also be surprised to see a Cup win by either Detroit or Boston, which leaves a couple unlikely candidates in the finals in my wacky bracket.

My guess is we haven't yet seen the best out of Crosby this season, and Roberto Luongo's about to finally get some goal support in the playoffs:

Greg Wyshynski and I will have a playoff preview chat both here and at Puck Daddy beginning at 1 p.m. today, and there'll also be a Globe Sports podcast featuring Eric Duhatschek up shortly after that.