Finding the playoff underperformers

by James Mirtle on Apr 21, 2009 1:10 AM CDT in Statistics Comment 19 comments

Keith Tkachuk has a reputation when it comes to playing at this time of year, and it's not the most flattering one to have. Big Walt, the reasoning goes, has been a big-time producer during the regular season but a no-show when the playoffs come around.

And now, in the twilight of his career, the trend appears to be holding:

Through three games against Vancouver, Tkachuk is without a point and is minus-three. He has just three shots on goal, and he is winning less than half his faceoffs. He also plays on a St. Louis power play that has gone 1-for-17 in the series...

Tkachuk, however, is 37 and playing for one of the most unlikely playoff teams we've seen in quite some time. Should the Blues lose out in four straight, it will still have been a successful season in St. Louis, and Tkachuk's 25 goals played a big part in helping that cause.

Still, by the numbers, he's come up short at this time of year more often than most other stars of his talent. Tkachuk has averaged .91 points per game during the regular season in his career but just .64 in the playoffs — totals that come, in part, as a result of spending considerable time with the Jets, Coyotes and Thrashers (55 per cent of his postseason games).

Essentially every player in the NHL sees his career production dip in the postseason, when the games are lower scoring and the competition more fierce, but the average drop is generally about .10 points per game for high-scoring forwards. Where, then, does Tkachuk's .27 difference rank among his peers? Is he the definition of a playoff 'underperformer?'

In order to quickly run the stats, I limited my look to active players with at least 200 regular-season games played, a career .75 points-per-game average and at least 20 playoff games. Here's the bottom 15 my numbers produced:

		Reg.	Playoffs
	Player	PTS/G	PTS/G	Diff	%
1	Sullivan	0.80	0.38	-0.42	-52.5%
2	Selanne	1.07	0.71	-0.36	-33.6%
3	Vanek	0.82	0.46	-0.36	-43.9%
4	Datsyuk	0.99	0.65	-0.34	-34.3%
5	Thornton	1.01	0.68	-0.33	-32.7%
6	Whitney	0.82	0.50	-0.32	-39.0%
7	Gagne	0.80	0.50	-0.30	-37.5%
8	Tanguay	0.88	0.60	-0.28	-31.8%
9	Tkachuk	0.91	0.64	-0.27	-29.7%
10	Demitra	0.92	0.65	-0.27	-29.3%
11	Hemsky	0.79	0.57	-0.22	-27.8%
12	Getzlaf	0.91	0.69	-0.22	-24.2%
13	Pominville	0.80	0.59	-0.21	-26.3%
14	Alfredsson	0.99	0.79	-0.20	-20.2%
15	Kariya	1.04	0.85	-0.19	-18.3%

A few surprising names on there, to be sure. One of the problems with an analysis like this is that it counts every game as being equal, whether those postseason games were played as an 18-year-old rookie, 27-year-old sniper or a 37-year-old greybeard, and perhaps that's not fair. But it is interesting to see some names you'd expect — like Thornton — mixed in amongst those you'd think were established playoff performers like Selanne and Tanguay.

Datsyuk's a good example of a player likely to play his way out of this group over time, as he has more strong performances in the playoffs like the 23 points he put up last time around. Ditto for Vanek, Hemsky and Getzlaf (one would think, anyway).

Still, an interesting list. I may also look to put something like this together for defencemen and goaltenders, if there's interest.

UPDATE Gabe Desjardins adds that he thinks the methodology here is just fine.

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It’d be interesting to see some data on the top pts/game getters in the playoffs to give some context to the numbers posted by this group. Also, perhaps a list of the players with the biggest improvement from the regular season to the playoffs.

Love this stuff. Thanks.

http://puckreport.blogspot.com

by puckreport on Apr 21, 2009 2:28 AM CDT reply actions

But it is interesting to see some names you’d expect — like Thornton — mixed in amongst those you’d think were established playoff performers like Selanne and Tanguay.

It’s almost as if winning a Stanley Cup biases the media’s and fans’ perception of how a player performs in the post-season. Who could have guessed?

Because this is a bit of a pet issue of mine (I believe that in all but the most extreme cases, there’s no such thing as a chronic playoff choker), I figured I’d run the numbers in a little more detail. I looked at the 15 players on this list and broke down the difference in regular season points per game and playoff points per game by individual season. Then I took the percentage drop for each season, weighted each season by the number of playoff games played, and averaged them all. Here are the aggregated results. The order obviously changes, but Hemsky is the only large swing.

Anyway, my method isn’t perfect either, because it’ll only uses percentages. I chose to do that to try and correct for era, but it might just distort the numbers more than it helps. The problem is that, per-game, it rates a fourth-liner’s 50% PPG drop the same as a first-liner’s 50% PPG drop, even though the first-liner’s drop is obviously a much larger raw PPG drop. That’s an issue with someone like Datsyuk, who won a Cup in his first NHL season on the Wings’ fourth line.

by RyanV on Apr 21, 2009 4:13 AM CDT reply actions

Also explains Vanek and Pominville

The two seasons where Buffalo went deep, Vanek and to a lesser extent Pominville were buried on the 3rd lines due to the Buffalo depth. The same reasons they were allowed to run wild in the regular season (everyone had to focus on Drury and Briere – although Pominville played a lot with Briere) were also the reasons they were “shut down” in the playoffs.

Of course, all us Sabres fans remember about Pominville and the playoffs is the SHG that took out Ottawa in 05-06 ;)

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Apr 21, 2009 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions

That play still gets me choked up. The play of the team after that series for the last few years gets me choked up for other reasons.

The population of Pominville keeps rising!

by Blackcapricorn on Apr 21, 2009 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes, and yes

and those guys’ numbers won’t improve until Buffalo makes the playoffs again…can that be soon please??

Honk if you love Justice!
"I'm betting that I'm just abnormal enough to survive. "

by TheTick on Apr 21, 2009 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions

It also bears pointing out that Selanne’s huge early regular seasons are probably skewing the comparison. 76-goal seasons will do that.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Apr 21, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

All right, all right, everyone hates the list, I get it.

by James Mirtle on Apr 21, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh, I don’t hate it, just pointing to a potential confounding factor. I’m a nitpicker by nature.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Apr 21, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions

All blog commenters are. I suppose I prefer nitpicks to silence.

by James Mirtle on Apr 22, 2009 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions

At least for Selanne there are a couple of logical explanations. He played most of his prime on those weak Jets and Ducks teams that usually didn’t make the playoffs or lost in the first round. Therefore, a disproportionate amount of his playoff games are from those Sharks and Avs seasons when he wasn’t playing well. Also, especially the old Mighty Ducks were always a one line team, and you know what they say about one line teams in the playoffs (this also explains Kariya on this list).

Granted, he maybe could have scored more in his return run with Anaheim, but you can’t really say he played badly in the 2007 postseason despite less points than you’d expect, can you?

Sullivan has played over a half of his games on questionable teams and the rest on a Leafs run when he wasn’t yet the impact player he would later become.

So, as James said, these stats have their problems and I’m sure more examples could be found. Many players end up on a long playoff run only once, and that run then forms a high percentage of a player’s playoff games. Apart from being too young or too old during that run, playing through an injury can also skew these statistics.

Still, I for one would be interested in a similar list for other positions.

by Malurous on Apr 21, 2009 6:49 AM CDT reply actions

What about the other way around? Folks who step it up the most in the playoffs?

Join me on the Hockey Blog Adventure!

by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Apr 21, 2009 7:09 AM CDT reply actions

I’ll try and post this in the near future.

by James Mirtle on Apr 21, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Part of the issue too though is that scoring just plain goes down in the playoffs. Kariya’s 0.85 pts/G in the playoffs is still a pretty decent number, especially considering that his regular season pace is probably unsustainable, given the scoring drop as the calendar reaches April, May, and June.

http://redwingsvbluejackets.blogspot.com/

by IAmJoe on Apr 21, 2009 10:15 AM CDT reply actions

Thorntons playoff numbers are also a bit skewed. He was a .51 PPG player in Boston, where he earned his “choker” reputation. Since joining the Sharks he’s been at .84 PPG, much closer to his regular season total. I’ll admit, I’m a Sharks fan, and in my eyes he’s performed pretty well in the playoffs during his time in teal. The problem, obviously, is that the team as a whole hasn’t quite taken the next step. Until that happens, it won’t matter how many playoff points he puts up for us, he’ll still carry that label…fairly or unfairly.

by I.C. Wiener on Apr 21, 2009 10:56 AM CDT reply actions

I’d be interested in seeing D and goalies. Also, what Cornelius asked for… “clutch” playoff performers.

by DarrenM on Apr 21, 2009 11:40 AM CDT reply actions

Tanguay?

He’s figured in 20 per cent of the Habs scoring this post season. Actually 33 per cent of the scoring if you figure he missed last night’s game.

by Exit716 on Apr 21, 2009 12:24 PM CDT reply actions

GP distribution effects

One of the problems with an analysis like this is that it counts every game as being equal, whether those postseason games were played as an 18-year-old rookie, 27-year-old sniper or a 37-year-old greybeard, and perhaps that’s not fair.

No “perhaps” about it, and it’s a hugely important point. As RyanV affirms in his excellent comment, a typical player’s career will feature a much more significant fluctuation in playoff GP than regular season GP, so a straightforward “per-game” measurement isn’t perfect when comparing a player to himself, let alone others.

A good example can be found in three mainstays of the Oilers dynasty, whose careers age 20-30 overlapped but who (largely) went their separate ways for their later years. Let’s start with Jari Kurri, whose career rates are 1.12 PPG in the regular season, 1.17 in the post-season. But breaking his career into segments reveals something a little different:

Edmonton reg.season: 754 GP, 1.38 PPG
Edmonton postseason: 146 GP, 1.38 PPG

Elsewhere reg.season: 497 GP, 0.71 PPG
Elsewhere postseason: 54 GP, 0.57 PPG

Career reg.season: 1251 GP, 1.12 PPG
Career postseason: 200 GP, 1.17 PPG

If you accept the career PPG rates at face value, it appears that Kurri performed at a higher level in the playoffs, whereas in reality in the two distinct segments of his career he was at and below par respectively. What has skewed his career PPG rates is the distribution of GP: Kurri played 40% of his regular season games after he left Edmonton, but just 27% of his playoff games.

Based on a simple regular season —> playoff points-per-game comp:

Mark Messier 1.07 —> 1.25
Glenn Anderson 0.97 —> 0.95

… it appears that Messier was a spectacular playoff performer, Anderson not nearly so much. But break it down into how they each performed with the Oilers, then with their second team, then lumping their third and subsequent teams, a different picture emerges:

Mark Messier
Edmonton reg.season (1979-91): 851 GP (48%), 1.22 PPG
Edmonton postseason (1979-91): 215 GP (73%), 1.30 PPG

New York* reg.season (1991-97): 421 GP (24%), 1.23 PPG
New York* postseason (1991-97): 80 GP (27%), 1.14 PPG
(* first go-round)

VAN-NYR** reg.season (1997-2004): 484 GP (28%), 0.69 PPG
VAN-NYR** post-season (1997-2004): 0 GP (0%), — ppg
(second go-round)
*

Glenn Anderson
Edmonton reg.season (1980-91, ‘97): 845 GP (75%), 1.07 PPG
Edmonton postseason (1980-91): 164 GP (73%), 1.12 PPG

Toronto reg.season (1991-94): 221 GP (20%), 0.71 PPG
Toronto postseason (1991-93): 21 GP (9%), 0.86 PPG

NYR-STL reg.season (1994-1996): 63 GP (6%), 0.57 PPG
NYR-STL post-season (1994-1996): 40 GP (18%), 0.51 PPG

In percentage terms Anderson played proportionately 3 times as many playoff games as regular season games in the tail end of his career. Messier played zero playoff games after his ill-considered decision to sign in Vancouver (sorry Canucks fans!), playing 484 more regular season games which caused his career PPG rate to slide on that side of the equation and not at all on the other. So while he was truly a rare outperformer in the post-season, the situation is not quite as rosy as it appears. And Anderson’s playoff greatness is diminished by the same metric due to the opposite effect.

http:www.oildroppings.blogspot.com

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 21, 2009 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs

Daniel and Henrik Sedin

Very interesting stuff. What I found most surprising was that neither of the Sedins made this list given their reputation as playoff chokers. I ran the numbers and found that both fall slightly below your .75 PPG average (Daniel has a .72 PPG average in the regular season, while Henrik’s is .71). However, they drop to .50 and .52 PPG respectively in the playoffs, a difference of -.22 and -.19 PPG. Thus, Daniel would come in in a tie for 11th on this list and Henrik would come in in a tie for 15th. Those numbers are also skewed upwards by their five and four points respectively in three games so far these playoffs. If data from these playoffs is excluded, Daniel’s playoff PPG is .42 and Henrik’s is .47, making the differences -.30 and -.24. That would slot Daniel in in a tie for seventh on your list and put Henrik in 11th (12th if you add Daniel first). Thus, until this season, that reputation as playoff chokers seems pretty deserved.

Editor of www.sportingmadness.blogspot.com.
Whitecaps correspondent for 24thminute.com.

by Andrew Bucholtz on Apr 21, 2009 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

It would be a lot more work, but...

I’d be very interested in seeing the same exact chart using only the regular season numbers when a guy made the playoffs. Guys like Sullivan, Pominville, and Whitney weren’t necessarily as prolific scoring-wise as they’ve ended up for their careers in the years where they happened to rack up a ton of playoff games.

by Make a play Whitner on Apr 21, 2009 5:23 PM CDT reply actions

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