Hockey's hottest team? It's Carolina
by James Mirtle on Apr 3, 2009 7:00 AM CDT
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Lost in all the love-ins for some of the NHL's bubble teams these days is the fact that it's actually Paul Maurice and the Hurricanes who have actually been the league's top team the past month.
Taking a look at how everyone's fared since the March 4 trade deadline, both Carolina and Pittsburgh have gained the most ground, losing just once in regulation in that time and dramatically reshaping the playoff race at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Kudos to Jim Rutherford for picking up Erik Cole and Ray Shero for dealing for Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin. Both also made coaching changes with their teams down in the dumps.
There seems to finally be some progress in Atlanta, too, after a brutal year for John Anderson and crew:
| Eastern | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | Pt% | |
| 1 | Carolina | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 84.6% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 83.3% |
| 3 | Atlanta | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 76.9% |
| 4 | Ottawa | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 66.7% |
| 5 | Washington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 66.7% |
| 6 | Boston | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 65.4% |
| 7 | NY Rangers | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 60.7% |
| 8 | Buffalo | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 53.8% |
| 9 | Toronto | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 53.8% |
| 10 | Montreal | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 53.6% |
| 11 | Florida | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 50.0% |
| 12 | Philadelphia | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 13 | NY Islanders | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 42.9% |
| 14 | New Jersey | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 42.3% |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 42.3% |
| Western | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | Pt% | |
| 1 | Vancouver | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 71.4% |
| 2 | St. Louis | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 70.0% |
| 3 | Anaheim | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 69.2% |
| 4 | Columbus | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 69.2% |
| 5 | San Jose | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 66.7% |
| 6 | Nashville | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 61.5% |
| 7 | Detroit | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 57.7% |
| 8 | Minnesota | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 53.3% |
| 9 | Phoenix | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 53.3% |
| 10 | Edmonton | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 43.3% |
| 11 | Calgary | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 42.9% |
| 12 | Chicago | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 42.9% |
| 13 | Los Angeles | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 42.9% |
| 14 | Dallas | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 36.7% |
| 15 | Colorado | 13 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 26.9% |
Playoff pace, by the way, is about 57% in the East and 55% in the West. Colorado's going to be playing for the Calder Cup at this rate.
The consensus picks for trade deadline winners in the immediate aftermath a month ago were Calgary, Edmonton and the Rangers, none of whom have really climbed the heap since then. New York's been better but frankly didn't look very good against the Hurricanes last night.
Here's a breakdown of goal differential since the deadline. You can see just how strong defensively Carolina's been (Cam Ward's numbers are way, way up in the past month or so):
| Eastern | GFA | GAA | Gdif | |
| 1 | Carolina | 3.85 | 2.15 | 1.69 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 3.92 | 2.42 | 1.50 |
| 3 | Atlanta | 3.77 | 3.00 | 0.77 |
| 4 | Boston | 3.23 | 2.69 | 0.54 |
| 5 | Ottawa | 3.20 | 2.67 | 0.53 |
| 6 | NY Rangers | 3.00 | 2.64 | 0.36 |
| 7 | Washington | 2.92 | 2.67 | 0.25 |
| 8 | Philadelphia | 3.00 | 2.86 | 0.14 |
| 9 | Buffalo | 3.54 | 3.46 | 0.08 |
| 10 | Montreal | 2.93 | 3.00 | -0.07 |
| 11 | Toronto | 3.08 | 3.31 | -0.23 |
| 12 | Florida | 2.85 | 3.08 | -0.23 |
| 13 | NY Islanders | 2.79 | 3.43 | -0.64 |
| 14 | New Jersey | 2.31 | 3.08 | -0.77 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | 2.46 | 3.69 | -1.23 |
| Western | GFA | GAA | Gdif | |
| 1 | Anaheim | 3.69 | 2.62 | 1.08 |
| 2 | Vancouver | 3.29 | 2.36 | 0.93 |
| 3 | Columbus | 3.15 | 2.46 | 0.69 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 3.13 | 2.67 | 0.47 |
| 5 | San Jose | 2.73 | 2.47 | 0.27 |
| 6 | Detroit | 3.38 | 3.31 | 0.08 |
| 7 | Edmonton | 2.93 | 2.93 | 0.00 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 2.60 | 2.73 | -0.13 |
| 9 | Nashville | 2.46 | 2.62 | -0.15 |
| 10 | Phoenix | 2.53 | 2.87 | -0.33 |
| 11 | Calgary | 2.64 | 3.36 | -0.71 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 2.14 | 2.86 | -0.71 |
| 13 | Chicago | 2.71 | 3.57 | -0.86 |
| 14 | Dallas | 2.33 | 3.47 | -1.13 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1.69 | 3.54 | -1.85 |
While it's true that being hot going into the postseason hasn't really meant all that much, historically speaking, I think teams like Carolina, Anaheim and Columbus are worth keeping an eye on. They're playing dramatically different than they were earlier in the season, and are likely tougher first-round draws than many are giving them credit for.
I bet we see a couple big upsets in the first round this year.
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The Canes are one confident bunch right now. It’s amazing what winning a few games does for one’s confidence. Interesting to see the goal differential above and how that correlates with the wins/losses.
Looking forward to the game on Saturday night when these two face each other.
GM of CanesCountry.com
by Bob Harwood on Apr 3, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
“Colorado’s going to be playing for the Calder Cup at this rate.”
Great line!
The population of Pominville keeps rising!
by Blackcapricorn on Apr 3, 2009 10:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Calder Cup champions tend to win games.
Ugh… I just can’t stomach the Hurricanes having success. The Habs truly are the only pure souls from 4-8 in the East. :)
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
by saskhab on Apr 3, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Glad I’m not the only one with a deep seated hatred for the Canes!
by Habs on Apr 3, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me, too. ’06 was a double-whammy.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s insane how hot Carolina and Pittsburgh have been, but I think its more surprising how cold NJ, Philly and Montreal have been.
Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet.
Noli nothis permittere te terere.
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Apr 3, 2009 11:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Montreal hasn’t been that cold lately – 4-0-1 in its last 5. It’s just that it took a while for this ship to turn around.
by Habs on Apr 3, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
“I think teams like Carolina, Anaheim and Columbus are worth keeping an eye on.”
I don’t agree, at least not if the reasoning is merely because they happen to be going through an up phase at this particular time. Teams go through hot streaks and cold streaks. People always put way too much stock in when in the season they happen.
Everyone and their mother was jumping up and down about the Washington Capitals going into the playoffs last year because they were so “hot” (also after a coaching change). Then they lost in the first round to Philadelphia even though they had home advantage due to the fact they won their division, which wasn’t a surprise to anyone who looked at the two teams records and goal differentials.
by Costa24 on Apr 3, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but what about the ‘06 playoffs, when the west had four “upsets” in their first round? There’s no role at all for momentum or mid-season improvements?
Besides, sometimes there’s legitimate personnel changes that aren’t necessarily the same thing as just a hot streak.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Apr 3, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Sure, but what about the ‘06 playoffs, when the west had four "upsets" in their first round?”
Certainly, let’s observe those four series…
8-EDMONTON def. 1-DETROIT 4-2
EDM record in final 20* games: 9-7-4
DET record in final 20 games: 16-1-3
→ Hotter team won? No
7-COLORADO def. 2-DALLAS 4-1
COL record in final 20 games: 9-8-3
DAL record in final 20 games: 12-5-3
→ Hotter team won? No. In fact, the Avs were the coldest team in our entire sample.
6-ANAHEIM def. 3-CALGARY 4-3
ANA record in final 20 games: 13-7-0
CGY record in final 20 games: 10-6-4
→ Hotter team won? Yes
5-SAN JOSE def. 4-NASHVILLE 4-1
SJ record in final 20 games: 14-4-2
NSH record in final 20 games: 13-6-1
Hotter team won? Yes, although both teams were hot.
Note: I chose the final 20 games to demonstrate the “hotness” factor (or is it "heat") because it also falls pretty close to the trade deadline date for most of the teams, so it’s good way to factor in the ensuing personnel changes.
So in 2 out of 4 cases, the hotter team won. Not exactly a big pattern. Now let’s take a closer look at those two wins…
ANA-CGY
Despite their ranks in the standings, Anaheim defeating Calgary was no upset. Calgary managed 103 points, not a whole lot more than Anaheim’s 98, while playing in an easier division (combined pts% of divisional opponents: CGY: .558, ANA: .581). Anaheim’s goal diff was also slightly better than Calgary’s (+25 to +18). This was just a case of two very closely matched opponents going at it, with the slightly better one coming out on top in 7 games, despite the fact that they didn’t have the home advantage. One could have seen this coming without the benefit of checking who was “hotter”. Not much of an upset.
SJ-NSH
Technically, the hotter team did indeed win here, but Nashville was pretty damn hot too. In fact, someone else might have said Nashville was actually hotter considering they were going in on a 6 game winning streak. Decide for yourself what the best heuristic of all is, but the truth is, both teams were hot, and Nashville’s edge in goal diff on the season can be countered by the fact that SJ didn’t get Joe Thornton until over a quarter way into the season, which skews their numbers. The “hotter team” theory doesn’t hold much water here.
And the Oilers who shocked the Red Wings and went to come within inches of a Stanley Cup are probably the best example of all here to disprove the theory. They were the COLDEST team of the whole set, and they were facing the HOTTEST, yet they turn out to be the team that beats them all, only to fall to another team that managed to escape their conference despite the fact they themselves finished the season a decidedly frosty 9-8-3 in their final 20.
I don’t want to unnecessarily stubborn about this. I’m open to the possibility that I’m wrong if anyone can present some compelling data, but the 2006 playoffs are a very bad example to use to counter my assertion that “hotness” is overrated. In fact, it probably strengthens it.
by Costa24 on Apr 3, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you put in a lot of legwork, but I dunno — I guess my point was ANA and SJS, in particular, did have awful Novembers that season; ANA lost 8 games in a row and SJS lost 10, I think?
In either case, though, it seems a bit silly that these Novembers matter just as much as their Marches, as both had pretty different rosters by then — SJS was up a Thornton and a Toskala and ANA was a more Burke-ified team by then as well. And EDM, too, had a hell of a trade deadline.
“Hotness”, I guess, might not be the be-all, end-all, but I still don’t know why looking at a post-deadline set of results shouldn’t be more helpful than a full-season set of results. At the very least, the more recent results reflect rosters that are for the most part still intact.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Apr 3, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I’m sorry I have to stick to mostly Anaheim here (it’s the team I’ve followed closely), but in 2003 the Mighty Ducks did shock the hockey world by sweeping the defending champ Red Wings — and no doubt it was an upset that couldn’t be duplicated probably even the following week.
But still, I can say this — over the final 41 games of the season, Detroit earned one more standings point than the M.Ducks. It looked like a big points disparity over the full 82, but perhaps the more recent results were a bit more indicative?
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Apr 3, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
(Apologies in advance for another long post. I swear it’s not on purpose :( )
Two memorable losing streaks indeed. So memorable in fact that they could easily distract someone from the fact that they were sandwiched between winning streaks.
ANA: W4-L8-W-L-W4 —> 8-9 record, 8-6-3 if we factor in OT/SO
SJ: W5-L10-W6 —> 11-10 record, 11-7-3 if we factor in OT/SO
Not too good, but not horrible when you expand the picture some. Teams don’t win and lose their games at an even interval, they peak and valley.
What I’m trying to get at is not to completely disagree with you, I don’t. I can surely see the wisdom in lending more credence to the latter part of the season, when the rosters more closely resemble what they will be in the playoffs. That’s common sense.
The problem I have is people allow themselves to be blinded to all other factors by it. What happened in October and November might not be quite as important, but to completely discount it is a mistake. But too many people let late season surges or swoons block everything else out and attribute one or two changes in the roster to justify it, when no single player or coach really has that big of an effect (except for goaltenders, their effect is enormous in proportion to the rest of the team. Imagine how much things would change if a baseball team were able to use their best starting pitcher almost every game to get a sense of it).
The Carolina Hurricanes are currently in the midst of a hot streak, showing that they aren’t as bad as they appeared to be earlier in the season, but it’s folly to think that Erik Cole singlehandedly has turned them from a 9th place team to a one that wins 80% of it’s games.
I imagine you and most people would agree with me that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. It’s just a question of how much each side should be weighed into the whole. History as I’ve seen it just happens suggests that it’s closer to the former than most people think, and while not perfect, taking the season as a whole provides a better signal-to-noise ratio than just looking at the last month, in my experience.
by Costa24 on Apr 3, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of the three teams I mention, two are using different goaltenders than early in the season: Anaheim is going with Hiller and Columbus with Mason. And Carolina’s got a new coach, a couple new players and a Cam Ward who looks like he might as well be a new goalie. Heck, all three teams (and Pittsburgh) have dramatically reshaped their rosters in the last two months or so.
You’re right about putting too much stock in hot late-season stretches. But there’s still 10 days to go, so I’m not counting how they fare there, and I also point out: “While it’s true that being hot going into the postseason hasn’t really meant all that much, historically speaking…”
It’s going to be a pretty interesting first round.
by James Mirtle on Apr 3, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It also bears pointing out that that Pittsburgh’s coaching change came right as Gonchar was coming off the IR. I’m willing to bet a good chunk of their resurrection has to do with getting their #1 defenceman and PP quarterback back, along with perhaps a bit of regression to the mean (i.e. they weren’t a “true talent” 10th place team). Sure, the new voice and strategy might have helped, especially early, but there’s enough confounding factors here that I’m not about to crown Dan Bylsma as this year’s Bruce Boudreau.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I saw that after the fact. I’m having a bad commenting day, apparently.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and while not perfect, taking the season as a whole provides a better signal-to-noise ratio than just looking at the last month, in my experience.
Oh, I’m very comfortable with that statement. In fact, I probably got off on the wrong foot by not really looking at what James’ table included — one month isn’t a lot to hang your hat on (though it fits with his point about the trade deadline impact).
I’m probably a guy who leans towards something like “last 41” or “since Christmas” or something like that — that probably has some mix of density and relevance that may tell more than the full-82 story.
And good points about expanding the picture with the Sharks and Ducks’ losing streaks, but peak-and-valleying like that is exactly what you don’t want to see come postseason — the Ducks couldn’t have been WC Finalists playing that November form.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
by Earl Sleek on Apr 3, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ward being hot aside, it’s no joke Carolina’s a different team up front with Cole.
That probably had a bigger effect than any coaching change. It’s the same situation in Pittsburgh. When Therrien was fired, they got Gonchar back.
Shut up when you're talking to me!
by Afino on Apr 3, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not trying to minimize the all-around impact Gonchar’s had on the ice and in the room but removing Therrien with a young coach that teaches was a huge boost.
Since Gonchar came back the day before the coaching change, it’s too hard to separate which event really means more, so I’d agree it’s a similiar situation. Gonchar’s been good for 25 minutes a night, but the whole team is playing an inspired 60 minute game under Byslma.
by Hooks Orpik on Apr 3, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know anything about Bylsma’s style, but if he’s a ‘coach that teaches’, shouldn’t he take longer-than-average to have an impact? A screamer could come in and motivate a team right away, but a teaching coach should need time for his lessons to be picked up.
by RyanV on Apr 5, 2009 5:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the other hand, removing a screamer (Therrien) might let the air out of the balloon a bit and get everyone playing less tight.
(Also, I could’ve read three posts lower before making my own up there. Oh well.)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could have read this far before telling you as much!
by James Mirtle on Apr 5, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hottest Ticket in Town
On the Business side, the Canes are a hot ticket right now. I couldn’t find many open seats last night while watching them host the Rangers, and they are up over 15% in attendance in the second half of the season.
One of my buddies visited family in Raleigh a couple of weeks ago. He figured he would just buy a ticket at the door with his college ID and save a few bucks, but they were all sold out 2 hours before game-time.
The return of Redneck Hockey…
by Rob Luker on Apr 3, 2009 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If VAN-CGY meet in the first round, you can almost book it. Game 7 OT win for VAN at home, and they win it all, based on the past pattern.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I’d love to see Bure in action again. Anyone who can score 117 goals over two seasons on a bad team with one knee…
But someone posted on, I think, LT last night that the three times they’ve met in the first round, it’s been Game 7 OT every time. Once, the home team won and won the Cup (CGY, ’89), and the other two times, the road team won and only made Game 7 of the Finals (VAN, ’94; CGY, ’04).
Logically, it shouldn’t hold, but it’s still kind of neat.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Apr 5, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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