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The bracket racket: Round 2 predictions

On the whole, Round 1 — while full of great games — ended up being rather predictable. There were only two upsets — Anaheim and Carolina — and I've seen a ton of pundits with nearly flawless pick 'ems records to this point. I bet that changes after Round 2.

My own bracket is nearly intact, which makes the predictions relatively easy (as long as I stick with the teams I had going the distance two weeks ago).

 

ROUND 2

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston v. (6) Carolina
Series key: Tim Thomas v. Cam Ward

Yes, Boston had a terrific season, but they haven't really been tested in the playoffs. Fifteen other postseason teams would have likely beaten up on the beaten up Habs in Round 1, and the Bruins' real work begins now. Having such an easy go of things to start will help in the long run, but the Hurricanes aren't going to be pushovers — especially with the way Ward's played the past 30 or so games. The Thomas v. Ward battle will be a major series key, as will Carolina's ability to have some success against Boston's depth. The Bruins are one of the few NHL clubs with three lines that can score, with the likes of Kobasew-Bergeron-Recchi making up the third line and Krejci emerging as a dominant performer on the second one, and as a result, I don't think the 'Canes will be able to out produce them at even strength. Zdeno Chara's a big-time worry, too, and is about to make Eric Staal's life difficult.

Bruins in 7

 

(2) Washington v. (4) Pittsburgh
Series key: Mike Green and the Caps D

The series everyone wanted to see should, in theory, be a good one. Although I'm not so sure — especially after what we saw from Washington in Round 1. The Caps looked completely befuddled by a terribly mediocre Rangers team that couldn't score all season, and I really wonder if they'll have an answer defensively for a Pens club that has been incredibly difficult for teams to contain under Coach Bylsma. One thing's certain: Mike Green needs to be a whole lot more effective on the Caps blueline. He logs about 26 minutes a night and is guaranteed to see considerable minutes against two of the most dangerous offensive players in the league in Crosby and Malkin throughout the series, and it'll be interesting to see if he can help his team outscore that level of opposition as opposed to some of the lesser lights they often faced during the season. Ovechkin, too, needs to be more of a factor than he was at times in the New York series. As those two go, so do the Caps, and my money's on Pittsburgh's underrated supporting cast being able to shut them down. 

Penguins in 5

 


Western Conference

(2) Detroit v. (8) Anaheim
Series key: The Perry-Getzlaf-Ryan line

Well, so much for my prediction that we'd see Detroit stumble a bit against the Blue Jackets — Round 1 proved as much of a cake walk as you can get. This series won't be that, even if the matchups do favour a Detroit team will all kinds of depth. The Ducks can win this series, but they'll need to continue getting stellar goaltending from Jonas Hiller and significant production from a dominant top line (which is sure to see tons of time against Datsyuk, Zetterberg and the Red Wings' other shutdown specialists). Anaheim's going to try to win by being mean — something that can work if you can do it while staying out of the box (not their specialty) — but barring a Chris Osgood meltdown, I don't see the Ducks' luck continuing. Detroit's second- and third-line depth will outscore Anaheim's, so the series is in the hands of its No. 1 line while seeing major minutes against Lidstrom and Rafalski. Life's never easy for an eight seed. 

Red Wings in 6

 

(3) Vancouver v. (4) Chicago
Series key: Sedins v. Seabrook-Keith

My guess is we see some pretty interesting linematching in this one from Alain Vigneault and Joel Quenneville, especially against the Sedin twins. Despite finishing with the sixth-most points in the NHL this season, the 'Hawks are an underrated group, one that many are writing off due to their age and experience level, but there's a lot of talent there, and they're only really outmatched in this series in goal (and even then not by that much). If Luongo's lights out, it could very well be a shorter series than I'm predicting here, but Vancouver will have a tough time beating Chicago's mobile defence, and if the Sedins are silenced, it'll be interesting to see if they can get enough from the supporting cast to win a series. I bet this is a good one — and finally a coming out party for some of the 'Hawks unheralded talents like Ladd, Versteeg, Bolland, Sharp and Keith. Flip a coin.

Canucks in 7

 

And for more blog coverage of the second round of the playoffs, check out SB Nation's blogs representing every team: Stanley Cup of Chowder v. Canes Country, Japers' Rink v. PensBurgh, Winging It In Motown v. Battle of California, Nucks Misconduct v. Second City Hockey

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Canes in 7

I am “keeping the faith” with the Canes and truly believe that they have what it takes to take on the Bruins. It will be a very tough series imo.

Canes in 7
Caps in 7
Wings in 5
Canucks in 6

GO CANES!

by Mike P. on Apr 30, 2009 1:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not all that much to disagree with here, James. What’s a commenter to do? You give the Canes more respect than I do, but you were right about them in the first round.

by RyanV on Apr 30, 2009 2:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't give up on Vancouver yet James.

Remember they’re going to the finals against the Pens. Could have swore I read that somewhere…

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Apr 30, 2009 5:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Rangers didn’t score much in the Caps series aside from the first game. After letting in 4 goals they replaced the sieve with the brick wall and kept them to 1, 0, 2, 0, 3 (2 were garbage goals), 1.

That’s a 1.17 g/g with Varlamov in the net. Doesn’t look like they were befuddled by the Ranger’s offense.

The problem was waking up the capitals offense against one of the best defenses in the league. Mission accomplished, the Rangers are gone after losing their first series in franchise history in which they led 3-1.

I don’t think that will be as much of a problem against the Pens as Fleury != Lundquist.

by snowburnt on Apr 30, 2009 9:04 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s a 1.17 g/g with Varlamov in the net. Doesn’t look like they were befuddled by the Ranger’s offense.

Mirtle said befuddled by the entire Rangers team, not by their offense. I think that’s a fair statement considering the Caps needed 55 minutes in Game 7 until they finally pulled away.

Guarantee the Penguins forwards are going to show some looks and shots that Varlamov hasn’t seen. He’s a great young player, we’ll see how he’ll do with a real test.

by Hooks Orpik on Apr 30, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

befuddled by a terribly mediocre Rangers team that couldn’t score all season

Don’t take quotes out of context. The implication was that the Rangers went wild putting pucks into the net, which was far from the case.

I think it’s also safe to say that the Ranger’s D was one of the best in the league and the Caps still put up 2.71 g/g.

I don’t doubt the skill and talent of the Penguins forwards, don’t doubt the skill of the rookie because he’s a rookie.

by snowburnt on Apr 30, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If anything, the Caps were befuddled by the Rangers’ posts. Talk about some bad luck in some of those games.

One reason to possibly doubt Varlamov is that he doesn’t have as long a track record. No doubt he played well in the first series, it’s just predicting his play going forward that is the debate.

by R O on Apr 30, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He also had a couple good outings during the season with one forgettable one against the Sabres that ended in an OTL.

It’s a debate, sure. If anything it’s more like setting an over/under at 9 g/g total rather than saying that the Pens are gonna run wild on Semen.

by snowburnt on Apr 30, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The forgettable performance included 3 goals going in off Cap skates/sticks. Nothing he could do there. I actually thought he played very well that game.

by Fehr and Balanced on May 1, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

befuddled by a terribly mediocre Rangers team that couldn’t score all season

That is, it took them seven games to defeat a team that couldn’t score. There is no implication here that the Rangers “went wild putting pucks into the net”. Do you think Mirtle can’t read a scoreboard?

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Apr 30, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm quite sure...

…that our man did not mean the Caps were befuddled by the Rangers’ offense, though the Caps certainly seemed like they couldn’t even figure out how to get the puck through the first 40 minutes of Game 7.

The only ones befuddled by it are we poor Ranger fans that have had to watch it all season. A bigger issue to me is that Varlamov was not tested at all by said impotent offense. As we all know, that won’t be the case with the Penguins.

Never thought I’d say this, but go Pens. After that awful series, I’m too bitter right now to even contemplate rooting for the Caps.

Rangers, Royals, Raiders, Knicks...the man loves a winner.

by self loather on Apr 30, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A bigger issue to me is that Varlamov was not tested at all by said impotent offense. As we all know, that won’t be the case with the Penguins.

Bingo.

Washington’s going to be pressed in their own zone and in goal a lot more in this series.

Check out my blog at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Apr 30, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but you are confusing two different issues. The Caps offense was befuddled by the Rags D and Hank. The Caps defense wasn’t befuddled by anything (except maybe Theo’s ability to play angles). The Pens offense will be a challenge and may befuddle the Caps D but the Pens D and MAF are not going to befuddle the Caps O. The Caps are just going from one team that is dominant on D with no O to a team with dominant O and vulnerable D. AO will get more quality chances against PIT and if he doesn’t pull a Jeff Carter the Caps will last more than 5 games.

Also, the Caps came out relatively flat in a few games against the Rags (a problem they’ve had all year when they expected to win). These Caps NEVER come out flat against PIT. They will be fired up for every game they play.

by Fehr and Balanced on May 1, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let me simplify what I wrote: The Caps were befuddled by the Rangers.

The Caps are just going from one team that is dominant on D with no O to a team with dominant O and vulnerable D.

The Penguins have had better team defence and allowed fewer goals per game than the Caps the past two years. They’re a much better defensive team than people give them credit for.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 1, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right. But they’re not the defensive team the Rags are, especially on the PK. The Caps scored at a decent clip against one of the best defenses, goalies, and PKs in the league. They will not be facing that against the Pens. Saying the Caps were befuddled in round 1 is just not that accurate. There was really only one game where the Caps were outplayed (game 2). The Caps had a tough time scoring but they that should have been expected to some degree considering the team they faced. Semin is tied for 2nd in playoff scoring, AO and Backstrom are tied for 6th. They weren’t exactly shut down. The play in the series wasn’t as close as 4-3 would indicate.

by Fehr and Balanced on May 1, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Washington was not very good in Game 7. At all.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 1, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, not for the first 40 minutes. But even playing that poorly they never looked like they were going to be blown away. The Rags had maybe 3 high quality scoring chances, finished one of them. Don’t get me wrong, I was nervous throughout but at no point did I think the Rags were going to run away with it. Watching game 2 was the only game of the series were I didn’t really think there was any way the Caps were going to win, even as good as Varlamov looked.

by Fehr and Balanced on May 1, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Caps looked completely befuddled by a terribly mediocre Rangers team that couldn’t score all season, and I really wonder if they’ll have an answer defensively for a Pens club that has been incredibly difficult for teams to contain under Coach Bylsma.

This sentence suggests the Caps had defensive problems handling the Rags offense. That is simply not true. Will it be harder to defend the Pens? No doubt. Will it be easier to get shots and quality chances on the Pens? Also no doubt.

by Fehr and Balanced on May 1, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This sentence has been discussed above. By it I meant that the Rangers aren’t very good — especially offensively — and yet gave the Capitals quite a run in Round 1. I know they didn’t score very often.

But did they get their share of chances? Sure. Game 7 was essentially a coin toss given the way both teams played.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 1, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m sure he can. I’m also sure of what was written.

The caps didn’t lose because of their D, they lost because of the Ranger’s D.

by snowburnt on Apr 30, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the Penguins forwards are going to show some looks and shots that Varlamov hasn’t seen

Can’t wait to see this from 87 in powder blue.

from the house that Red Jesus built

by bigonetimer on Apr 30, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What are the Bruins top 2 lines?

by puckdonkey on Apr 30, 2009 9:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Axelsson – Savard – Kessel
Lucic – Krejci – Ryder
Kobasew – Bergeron – Recchi

Wheeler’s on the fourth line with Yelle and whoever’s left. It’s a very balanced group.

Check out my blog at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Apr 30, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s Thornton that plays with Yelle and Wheeler. Bitz is the first spare. When Lucic was suspended, Wheeler took his place, and Bitz took Wheeler’s spot on line 4.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Apr 30, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks James. Havent had a chance to watch the Bruins yet this playoffs (or all this year for that matter) but thats a solid lineup – although Axelsson on the top line strikes me as odd. Looking forward to the Canes vs the Bruins. The Canes can skate and hit with the best of them but I think the Bruins are just too good.

by puckdonkey on Apr 30, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Axelsson’s very strong defensively, so that allows them to matchup decently against top lines. He had a good year.

Check out my blog at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Apr 30, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

James thanks for doing what I’m sure all the “experts” are going to do by picking the Pens to win in 5.

Caps have played down or up to level of competition all season. They may not beat the Pens but I feel confident that they will win more than one game in the series.

Rangers and Pens are two very different teams with two very different styles of play.

Caps stay out of the box and the series will get very interesting…and long.

by CP2Devil on Apr 30, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You’re welcome!

Check out my blog at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Apr 30, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Osgood in Detroit

I didn’t see much of the Detroit-BJs series, but everything I read suggested that the BJs didn’t show up and were just dominated by the Wings, yet there’s a lot of stories about how Osgood redeemed himself. From basic stats it looks like Osgood played well in game 1, was largely untested in games 2 & 3, and was awful in game 4. His save % was .936, but it’s a small enough sample size that I don’t think too much can be derived from that.

Obviously basic stats don’t give a full story but If that’s the case I fail to see how that’s any sort of redemption, or for that matter how that’s different than his regular season at all.

I’m still of the opinion that he’s going to blow a costly game at a crucial time in this playoffs, and I could see the Ducks being the ones who will take advantage.

The 2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Slumpbusters

by Jibblescribbits on Apr 30, 2009 11:40 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Could be. Conklin’s a decent goalie though, too, so even if he comes in, Detroit’s not done.

Check out my blog at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Apr 30, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

but how long will Babcock wait to put Conklin in?

The 2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Slumpbusters

by Jibblescribbits on Apr 30, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It took two games last year with Hasek

by detroitnick on Apr 30, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Time for me to point out again that the Wings don’t need a Luongoesque performance to go all the way. Sustained mediocrity should be sufficient given the rest of the team. I still maintain that Osgood can deliver mediocrity. If not, Conklin can deliver it. I’m not worried.

by J. Michael Neal on Apr 30, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs


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