Green '09: One of the greatest goal-scoring seasons of all-time?

by James Mirtle on Apr 6, 2009 6:00 AM CDT in Statistics Comment 14 comments

Hey James,

I really enjoyed your post on where Ovechkin's 65 goals ranked on the all-time list when adjusted for era differences, that you did last season. Do you intend on doing a similar post for Mike Green's goal total once the season wraps up? I think it would be very interesting to see how his 30+ this year stack up against Coffey's 48, Orr's 40+, etc. considering the era Green plays in now.

Thanks for the time and keep up the good blog,

Kevin

If only every email was so nice. Sure thing Kevin.

Just 43 players listed as defencemen have scored 25 goals in a single season since Bobby Orr first turned the trick in 1969-70, and it's only happened three times in the past eight seasons. Sergei Gonchar had 26 in 2001-02, Sheldon Souray matched that two years ago and one Mr. Green has so far posted 30 this season.

Here's a look at how their seasons stack up against the best of all time, before I get into the era adjusting Kevin's talking about:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	Tm	GP	G	G/G
1	Paul Coffey	1985-86	24	EDM	79	48	0.61
2	Bobby Orr	1974-75	26	BOS	80	46	0.58
3	Paul Coffey	1983-84	22	EDM	80	40	0.50
4	Doug Wilson	1981-82	24	CBH	76	39	0.51
5	Bobby Orr	1971-72	23	BOS	76	37	0.49
6	Bobby Orr	1970-71	22	BOS	78	37	0.47
7	Paul Coffey	1984-85	23	EDM	80	37	0.46
8	Kevin Hatcher	1992-93	26	WSH	83	34	0.41
9	Bobby Orr	1969-70	21	BOS	76	33	0.43
10	Bobby Orr	1973-74	25	BOS	74	32	0.43
11	Denis Potvin	1978-79	25	NYI	73	31	0.42
12	Phil Housley	1983-84	19	BUF	75	31	0.41
13	Denis Potvin	1975-76	22	NYI	78	31	0.40
14	Ray Bourque	1983-84	23	BOS	78	31	0.40
15	Mike Green	2008-09	23	WSH	65	30	0.46
16	Paul Coffey	1988-89	27	PIT	75	30	0.40
17	Denis Potvin	1977-78	24	NYI	80	30	0.38
18	Bobby Orr	1972-73	24	BOS	63	29	0.46
19	Phil Housley	1987-88	23	BUF	74	29	0.39
20	Paul Coffey	1989-90	28	PIT	80	29	0.36
21	Paul Coffey	1982-83	21	EDM	80	29	0.36
22	Paul Coffey	1981-82	20	EDM	80	29	0.36
23	Al MacInnis	1993-94	30	CGY	75	28	0.37
24	Al MacInnis	1990-91	27	CGY	78	28	0.36
25	Guy Lapointe	1974-75	26	MTL	80	28	0.35
26	Al MacInnis	1989-90	26	CGY	79	28	0.35
27	R. Ruotsalainen	1984-85	24	NYR	80	28	0.35
28	Ray Bourque	1980-81	20	BOS	67	27	0.40
29	Ron Greschner	1980-81	26	NYR	74	27	0.36
30	Reed Larson	1980-81	24	DET	78	27	0.35
31	Phil Housley	1988-89	24	BUF	72	26	0.36
32	Sergei Gonchar	2001-02	27	WSH	76	26	0.34
33	Sheldon Souray	2006-07	30	MTL	81	26	0.32
34	S. Ozolinsh	1993-94	21	SJS	81	26	0.32

Note that I'm including Housley even though he played some portions of that season as a forward. You may exclude him if you wish.

So, Green's 30 goals (and counting, given he has three games left to play) in 65 games is pretty darn impressive, ranking tied for 15th (or 14th if you throw Housley out) in the all-time scoring ranks for defencemen. In goals per game, Green's performance is tied for seventh, and works out to 38 goals over an 82-game season.

But ... like Ovechkin's marvelous 65-goal season last year, Green's managed the feat in an ultra-low-scoring era. Orr is the only other player in NHL history to have scored 30 goals in a season that averaged less than 6.24 goals per game, and Green has done it in one that so far has averaged only 5.70.

So, using my crude adjustments for era, where would Green rank if we put these top campaigns in 2008-09 goals?

Sixth (and that's without accounting for the 14 games he's missed):

Rk	Player	Season	Tm	GP	G	G/G	NHL GPG	Adj. Goals	Adj. G/G
1	Bobby Orr	1974-75	BOS	80	46	0.58	6.85	38.28	0.48
2	Paul Coffey	1985-86	EDM	79	48	0.61	7.94	34.46	0.44
3	Bobby Orr	1971-72	BOS	76	37	0.49	6.13	34.40	0.45
4	Bobby Orr	1970-71	BOS	78	37	0.47	6.24	33.80	0.43
5	Bobby Orr	1969-70	BOS	76	33	0.43	5.81	32.38	0.43
6	Mike Green	2008-09	WSH	65	30	0.46	5.70	30.00	0.46
7	Paul Coffey	1983-84	EDM	80	40	0.50	7.89	28.90	0.36
8	Bobby Orr	1973-74	BOS	74	32	0.43	6.39	28.54	0.39
9	S. Gonchar	2001-02	WSH	76	26	0.34	5.24	28.28	0.37
10	Doug Wilson	1981-82	CBH	76	39	0.51	8.03	27.68	0.36
11	Paul Coffey	1984-85	EDM	80	37	0.46	7.77	27.14	0.34
12	Kevin Hatcher	1992-93	WSH	83	34	0.41	7.25	26.73	0.32
13	Denis Potvin	1977-78	NYI	80	30	0.38	6.59	25.95	0.32
14	Denis Potvin	1975-76	NYI	78	31	0.40	6.82	25.91	0.33
15	Denis Potvin	1978-79	NYI	73	31	0.42	7.00	25.24	0.35
16	Bobby Orr	1972-73	BOS	63	29	0.46	6.55	25.24	0.40
17	S. Souray	2006-07	MTL	81	26	0.32	5.89	25.16	0.31
18	Al MacInnis	1993-94	CGY	75	28	0.37	6.48	24.63	0.33
19	Guy Lapointe	1974-75	MTL	80	28	0.35	6.85	23.30	0.29
20	Paul Coffey	1988-89	PIT	75	30	0.40	7.37	23.20	0.31

Green's season, using what I've calculated to be the adjusted goals per game, is the second-best goal-scoring campaign by a defencemen.

And given his defensive numbers have been just fine, I'm not sure what the argument against him winning the Norris Trophy is. It's not one I'm going to make.

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Game Over for the Norris

Great post, and great stuff putting this season into historical context.

The argument against him is that he is not perceived as a brick-wall, crease-clearing type in his own zone. Which is partly true at times….those times being the one or two minutes per game when he isn’t controlling the puck in the offensive zone.

Game Over Green 4 Norris ’09!

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Apr 6, 2009 10:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

great minds think alike!

Michael Dell of LCS Hockey just a very similar story

Still not sure this makes Green the lock for the Norris. The Norris is the one award, above all others, were perception is more important than stats. You have these great stats to back up that Green is a solid defensive player. But Im betting the PHWA doesn’t follow those stats – they start talking about how this is Chara’s year, and it snowballs. I think that’s going to carry the day.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/

by poploser on Apr 6, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you could argue that most of Green’s goals (18) came on the power play, and he plays as more of a rover on the PP than most defencemen. Silly argument, but it asks an interesting question, I think (how many more or fewer goals would Ovechkin score if he didn’t play the point on the PP?).

You could argue that Green plays weak opposition and soft minutes, and you’ll get more mileage there. But still, you know, 30 goals.

I think the subtlest argument is that awarding the Norris for scoring 30 goals is similar to awarding the Vezina to a goalie who gets 15 points, or the Selke to a player who gets 15 short-handed goals. Clearly those players are doing something incredibly well, but it’s only a small part of their jobs and, on the grand scheme of things, not worth much. 30 goals from a defenceman is a lot, but in terms of how much it helps the team, goals aren’t rated by degree of difficulty. The Caps would do just as well getting those 30 goals from a forward, or spread across 3 different forwards.

Those are extreme examples, but there is something there. But still, you know, 30 goals. Green will win the Norris, and he should.

by RyanV on Apr 6, 2009 11:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Most defencemen score their goals on the power play, and Green’s not playing against soft opposition. He’s out there on the PK all the time and doing just fine.

The vote’s going to be close, and it should. Chara and Lidstrom have had great seasons.

by James Mirtle on Apr 6, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the subtlest argument is that awarding the Norris for scoring 30 goals is similar to awarding the Vezina to a goalie who gets 15 points, or the Selke to a player who gets 15 short-handed goals. Clearly those players are doing something incredibly well, but it’s only a small part of their jobs and, on the grand scheme of things, not worth much.

I don’t find that a particularly convincing argument. A goalie’s offensive ability is, what, one percent of his overall contribution to his team? Maybe five percent? By contrast, the Norris is given the best all around defenseman and a defenseman’s role is probably more like 60/40, 70/30, or 75/25 offense/defense.

by David M. Getz on Apr 6, 2009 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I know is

I play in a fantasy league where defenseman scoring is valued at a premium, and I owe Mike Green about half my winnings.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on Apr 6, 2009 12:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very well done…I had been reflecting on this over the weekend and these stats are great.

Here’s the next phase of the analysis in my mind….Take a look at the ages of the defensemen on the list. Only three are over the age of 27. I always considered late 20’s to be the prime of a player’s career, yet the average age of these amazing season’s on the list is hardly 24. Why?

This would make sense from a goalie perspective, considering more than a handful of goalies do extremely well in their first few seasons, only to fade once other teams “get the book” on them. However, with defense this is really odd. Any ideas?

Mike

by SportsJudge.blogspot.com on Apr 6, 2009 12:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that too. I have a few theories:

1.) Natural regression. Seasons are long, playoffs are grueling, and after two or three seasons guys lose a little bit of that step.
2.) The progression of elite defenseman’s games towards being more defensively oriented. Defense is a craft that must be mastered, and once a d-man establishes his offensive prowess he might turn his focus towards his own end.
3.) Time On Ice increases means more energy conservation. Flip side to the same coin as #2. A younger guy, taking more risks will have to skate more and burn more energy. A wiser veteran, knowing he has 28 minutes to log that evening, might not join the rush as much.
4.) It’s easier to stop a defenseman if you’re actively TRYING to shut him out offensively. I’m no Scotty Bowman, but seems to me half of Green’s goals this year have come on predictable back-door cuts, or power play shots where he is inexplicably left open in the slot. (Then again, I watch every Caps game so these may be predictable only because I’m used to them….also hard to cover Green, Semin and Ovechkin at the same time. Yikes). Like a young goalie, “the book” on them can be learned.

The keyboard is mightier.

by breed16 on Apr 6, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Elite goal-scoring forwards generally scoring more in the early and mid twenties than in the late twenties and early thirties. Perhaps it’s just that it’s the same case for defensemen.

by David M. Getz on Apr 6, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

With a h/t to J.P., he’s been insane since the All-Star break (18 goals and 19 assists in 30 games).

"Thank God there is a sport for middle-sized white boys.."

by Bald Pollack on Apr 6, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think an interesting part of the argument that is missed when just applying a straight overall league scoring adjustment would be what proportion of overall goals were scored by defensemen in each season.

In today’s more trap-happy and slow-paced game, which focuses more on getting the puck in the offensive zone and chasing to set up an offensive set where everyone is involved as opposed to odd-man rushes and the like, I would think a slightly larger proportion of overall scoring is contributed to by defensemen than in the past.This factor might short-change the stuff put up by Orr, Coffey and the like when simply applying a straight overall league scoring adjustment. A big part of the marvel of what they did was how much they blew away the rest of the competition at their position in those years.

Here’s what the top 3 goal scoring defensemen lists looked like in some of the more interesting seasons to this discussion:

2008-09: Green (30) – Weber (22) – Souray (22)
1985-86: Coffey (48) – Howe (24) – Larson (22)
1974-75: Orr (46) – Lapointe (28) – Potvin (21)

The jumps from Coffey’s and Orr’s totals with respect to the rest of the pack is more pronounced than Green’s, even if you factor in the time lost to injury for Green. In fact, it’s interesting to note that the runner-ups for all three eras are in a rather similar category. Can’t be sure without looking at the proportion in the overall leagues, and I don’t have that data, but it’s not unthinkable that all the changes that have affected scoring across generations would have a much bigger effect on forward scoring than defensemen, which may have managed to remain more stable.

by Costa24 on Apr 6, 2009 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs