Projecting the Round 1 matchups

by James Mirtle on Apr 8, 2009 8:46 PM CDT Comment 11 comments

Ken Roberts's Sports Club Stats is a great site around this time of year, one I've seen plugged on more and more blogs this season.

Using his figures as of Wednesday afternoon, I thought it'd be interesting to project who is most likely to face who in the first round of the playoffs (which start a week from now, btw) and the percentage chance the matchup will happen:

Eastern Conference

#1.

57.3%

#8.

Next most likely matchup: Bruins-Canadiens (28.4%)

#2.

61.6%

#7.

Next most likely matchup: Capitals-Rangers (29.1%)

#3.

73.7%

#6.

Next most likely matchup: Devils-Hurricanes (8.8%)

#4.

39.3%

#5.

Next most likely matchup: Hurricanes-Flyers (7.3%)

Western Conference

#1.

42.1%

#8.

Next most likely matchup: Sharks-Ducks (25.9%)

#2.

52.5%

#7.

Next most likely matchup: Red Wings-Blues (27.5%)

#3.

40.1%

#6.

Next most likely matchup: Canucks-Blue Jackets (30.2%)

#4.

54.7%

#5.

Next most likely matchup: Blackhawks-Flames (42.2%)

I'll try and keep this updated as we head toward the final games Sunday.

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Next most likely matchup: Hurricanes-Flyers (7.3%)

I see what they mean, but man, does that look silly.

SCS is a fantastic little site.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Apr 8, 2009 9:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m actually figuring out those numbers by calculating from his percentages … not sure how scientific it all is. Interesting, anyway.

by James Mirtle on Apr 8, 2009 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely. Hey, we all need some way of knowing ahead of time which predictions to write up first. ;)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Apr 9, 2009 1:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s still a possible (definitely not probable) 3-6 matchup as well, I believe.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Apr 8, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't wait to see the Flyers vs Canes matchup.

Bloodbath it will be.
Wish it were the case of self-destruction with these two.

Toot…toot… BOOM!

Awesomeness lol

by AppleSweetRose on Apr 9, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 teams I hate clawing at each other throats. No matter who loses, I’m happy.

by Habs on Apr 9, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with the 4-5 spot is that if Philly is not in 4th they’re in 5th and same with Carolina, or
Philly (prob of 4th) = 60%
Philly (prob of 5th) = 30%
Car(prob of 5th) = 30%
Car(prob of 4th) = 30%
By multiplying 60% x 60% and 30% x 30% you get a much smaller number (.36 + .09 = 0.45) compared to: 90% x 90% as it should be.
This has to do with the fact that these events are not independent, that is to say if Carolina is in 4th this implies Philly cant be and therefor they are in 5th.

You can see my match ups @:
http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.com/2009/04/possible-playoff-matchups.html

by hockeynumbers on Apr 9, 2009 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs