The NHL has been very fortunate this season. It had some spirited playoffs, and got the matchups it wanted in many of the series.

But not everything went right. It would have been far better if the Bruins had beat the Hurricanes -- since Boston is a better TV market than Carolina. Certainly game seven of the Caps vs Pens series would have been better if the Caps had actually shown up. And now... we get the final.

On paper, this one looks like a great story. Exactly what the NHL wanted. The parallels with Edmonton and the NY Islanders are being drawn everywhere. Last year, the young talented team was "schooled" by the Red Machine. This year the plucky challenger returns for a rematch.

But this is a mismatch, not a rematch, and there are three reasons why:

1. The Red Wings are Worse this year

You would think this team would be poised to make a mockery of the finals. They lost virtually no one from last year, and added the Penguin's second best player from last year's contest. And yet...

This team is not as strong as last year's model. The penalty killing has been atrocious, clicking along at a mere 73.7%. (By contrast, last year, the Red Wings killed penalties at an 85.7% rate.)

The big guns of Detroit have looked about as productive as a GM assembly line. Remember the one two punch of Datsyuk and Zetterberg last year? Sidney Crosby has more points in the playoffs this year than those two... combined. And Marian Hossa? He's looking a lot like the under-achieving Ottowa Senator version of Marian Hossa than the "finally shaking the label of cracking in the big game" version.

Add to that a host of (naturally) undisclosed injuries, and you have to wonder if this Red Wings team will be capable of even keeping this one close.

2. The Penguins are Better this year

It seems hard to believe, but the Penguins are a better team this year than last. What is hard to believe is that a team can lose its two top wingers, and be better. And yet they are. You wouldn't know it by the record, since the Penguins breezed through the East last year, whereas they had a much tougher fight this time. But the record is deceiving. Philadelphia was a much tougher test than Ottowa, a team that backed into the playoffs last year; and Washington's sniper kept them in the match when by all rights they should have been out in five.

Part of this is Dan Bylsma's system which fits the Penguins much better than Michel Therrien's modified trap system. This Penguin team is shooting the puck more than any other Penguin team in history. They attack relentlessly, which neutralizes the other team's forecheck. The Red Wing's game is dumping the puck in, banging bodies around, and getting an ugly goal through traffic. It worked very well against Therrien's Penguins. This year, though, it is harder to do that (as Carolina found out.) The defense jumps up on the attack which results in much more time spent in the offensive zone. To create a good forecheck, you first have to get the puck out of your own zone - which is not easy against this Penguins team. Last year, even when winning, the Penguins were consistently out shot. This year, they are doing the shooting, and every "hot goalie" they have faced has left the series shaking his head. Next up, Chris Osgood...

The Penguins are also peaking at the right time. They have been getting better as the playoffs have progressed, which is an ominous sign for the crippled Red Wings.  Last year, they swept an over-achieving Ottowa Senators team in the first round. This year, they swept a feisty Carolina team that had the hottest goalie in the playoffs - in the finals.

The main thing that has boosted the Penguins, though, is that Evgeni Malkin is playing like... well, Evgeni Malkin. Malkin has had a habit of disappearing in some games, and after the crushing check he received in Philadelphia last year, he pretty much disappeared from the playoffs. This year, he is healthy. And hungry. Now, there is no doubt that he seems to perform better at home. I suppose he prefers Mama Malkin's Varenyki (and considering how he does on his own, I guess no one can blame him (http://penguins.nhl.tv/team/console.jsp?catid=18&id=37583). But Malkin has been a one man highlight reel in several games on the road, too, which means teams can no longer load up to stop Sidney Crosby.

Speaking of which, Sidney Crosby is, incredibly, also better this year. Always known as a playmaker, this year, he has notched up his goal scoring, and currently leads the playoffs in both goals and points (Well, he's tied there with Malkin.)

However...

3. Marian Hossa is the same as ever

First of all, I think it's fair to question Marian Hossa's heart. Can you imagine King Leonidas joining the Persians because he thought they would win? How about Davy Crockett sneaking out of the Alamo in the middle of the night, and joining Santa Anna?

Hockey is battle, and your team mates are your band of brothers. I get that a guy has to look out for his family, and I don't begrudge Ryan Malone leaving for more money. But Hossa accepted less money to switch sides because he thought the Red Wings had a better chance to win the cup. On any level, this is the sorry act of a heartless coward.

Hey, Hossa... if you don't miss the shot in Game 6, maybe the Penguins (you know, the team you play for) wins the cup and you don't have to worry about it. Instead he sticks his finger in the wind and tries to find some other team to win the cup for him.

I don't believe in "Hockey Gods" but if I did, I would say there is no way they would let Marian Hossa ever taste champagne from the Stanley Cup.

As it is, it will not be not mythical gods, but the mere mortals of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin who stop Hossa. That should be enough. Especially since Hossa is playing exactly like the Hossa who developed a reputation of disappearing in big games. Throughout his career with Ottowa (and a brief stint in NY) Hossa scored an average of .6 points a playoff game.

With the Penguins, that average more than doubled. In the playoffs last year, Hossa was averaging 1.3 points a game. This year? A much more "Ottowa-like" average of .75  points per game. Coincidence? Could it be that (in the words of Dennis Green) Marian Hossa "is who we thought he was", and Sidney Crosby just made him look good?

It is interesting that Sidney's new line mate, Bill Guerin, has more points this playoff season than Mr. Hossa.

If there is justice in the world, Marian Hossa will watch the Penguins skate around the ice with the cup... and Ray Shero will turn his cell phone off... because surely Hossa will be calling him asking if he can get back on the team, since they have the best chance of winning the cup in 2010.

Prediction: Penguins in 5... but I am hoping for Penguins in 6, so the cup is skated on Mellon Arena ice - one last time...

PS: Yes, the Red WIngs beat the Penguins in six games last season. But after the first two -- when the Penguins learned the level of play they needed, the teams were very evenly matched... they scored the same number of points and won the same number of games...