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Searching for Jonas Hiller

There's been a bit of a buzz around a European netminder the whole postseason so far. It started with Henrik Lundqvist, who won three games essentially on his own, but the attention quickly moved to Russian youngster Simeon Varlamov, who has stepped in and led the Capitals to a 1-0 series lead in Round 2.

Now onto Jonas Hiller, who was — but for one ugly goal against — terrific in a triple overtime win by the Ducks on Sunday night.

European netminders playing a starring role in the playoffs isn't really a new phenonmenon — we saw it often with Dominik Hasek, for one, during his career — but one trend that's seeming to take hold lately is that more and more teams are turning to undrafted European league stars in their mid- to late 20s for their most important position:

  • The Wild brought over Niklas Backstrom three years ago at age 28, and now he's a Vezina finalist
  • The Ducks pursued Hiller at 25 after he led Davos to a Swiss league title, and he's been a big reason Anaheim's had any success this season
  • The Kings signed on Erik Ersberg, then 25, in 2007-08, and he posted a .927 save percentage on a team that was dead last in the West that year
  • This past fall, Chicago brought aboard 25-year-old Antti Niemi, who is considered a lock for a role with the Blackhawks next season after playing in the AHL all year

And then there are many others like the Predators' Pekka Rinne, who was deemed worthy of a late, late round draft pick while in his 20s back in 2004.

The NHL draft is a crapshoot when it comes to any position, but given scouts are looking at 17- and 18-year-old players, goaltenders are even tougher to project. They're often at that point only backups, playing every fourth or fifth game, and in my mind, that's part of the reason you see so few taken in the first round. Of the top 10 netminders in save percentage this year, for example, only Luongo was picked in the top two rounds. Of the rest, Backstrom and Hiller were undrafted, and five others — like Rinne — were taken in the eighth or ninth rounds (which no longer exist).

Add in the fact that European players are, in general, not as heavily scouted as those playing in the CHL or NCAA, and it makes sense that some elite netminders in other countries fall through the cracks only to emerge six or seven years down the road.

The news, then, that the Flyers are perhaps looking to sign Ray Emery for next season made me wonder if, instead, the real search should be on for the next Jonas Hiller or Niklas Backstrom. After all, Emery wasn't the KHL's top goaltender this season — or even the top one on his own team — and his skillset (and salary expectations) when it comes to the NHL have been established. It very well may be that there are more gems playing in the European leagues worth taking a flier on.

Among regular starters from the KHL and Sweden and Finland's top leagues (which should be relatively comparable in terms of netminders' skill level) here are the save percentage leaders from this past season:

Player   Team   LG GP   GAA   %  
1 Riksman, Juuso Jokerit FIN 45 1,76 94.4
2 Kolesnik Vitaly    Atlant   KHL 30 1.61 94.0
3 Wallinheimo, Sinuhe JYP FIN 35 1,68 94.0
4 Eremenko Alexander    Salavat    KHL 34 1.70 93.7
5 Koshechkin Vasily    Lada   KHL 43 1.65 93.6
6 Koskinen, Mikko * Blues FIN 33 1,91 93.2
7 Gustavsson, Jonas  FBK  SEL 50 1,96  93.2
8 Gelashvili Georgy    Lokomotiv   KHL 50 1.86 93.1
9 Åkerlund, Magnus  TIK  SEL 33 2,08  92.7
10 Nikkilä, Tommi Pelicans FIN 39 2,05 92.4
11 Nieminen, Jani HIFK FIN 31 2,35 92.3
12 Salak, Alexander TPS FIN 52 2,40 92.3
13 Modig, Mattias  LHF  SEL 54 2,25  92.2
14 Lassila, Teemu HPK FIN 54 2,45 92.0
15 Vehanen, Petri Lukko FIN 57 2,41 92.0
16 Emery Ray    Atlant   KHL 35 2.22 91.8
17 Lehto, Mika Tappara FIN 38 2,53 91.8
18 Dahlberg, Nicklas  SAIK  SEL 55 2,46  91.8
19 Hadelöv, Andreas  SAIK  SEL 53 2,49  91.8
20 Markström, Jacob  BIF  SEL 48 2,38  91.7
21 Eshe Robert    SKA   KHL 37 1.87 91.7
22 Holmqvist, Johan  FHC  SEL 55 2,17  91.7
23 Kilpeläinen, Eero Ässät FIN 46 3,02 91.7
24 Lindbäck, Anders  BIF  SEL 49 2,57  91.6
25 Horoshun Sergey    Neftekhimik   KHL 32 2.14 91.5

A few recognizable names for North Americans on there, with Emery being the main one. Note too that Robert Esche and Johan Holmqvist, who essentially played their way out of the NHL, have emerged overseas as solid keepers.

As for the unknowns, Jonas Gustavsson is the man getting a lot of attention these days, what with the Leafs, Stars and several other teams looking to sign him after the world championships. He has the numbers to back that up.

Jacob Markstrom, meanwhile, is only 19 and was a second-round pick by the Panthers at the draft last summer. He starred for Team Sweden at the world junior tournament, and is one of those rare European netminders on the radar from an early age.

Another in that vein is Mikko Koskinen, a 6-foot-7 youngster who is expected to be picked in this summer's draft. There's some real buzz building about him given his size and athleticism during a breakout season in Finland.

Others on the radar include: Modig, who was drafted by the Ducks in the fourth round in 2007. The Preds, who seem to like this route, took Lassila back in 2003 and then Lindback last year, while the Stars drafted Kilpelainen. None of these 'tenders have come over to this point as all have likely preferred to star in their home leagues rather than work their way up through the AHL. (There are generally few European goalies in the minors each season.)

The rest of the players on this list, however, are relatively unknown in North America despite playing at a high level in their respective leagues.

Rather than look to an Emery, and the baggage that comes with him, would it not make more sense to pursue one of the other European league standouts from this past year?

My guess is there's a couple more Hillers on this list we haven't heard from yet.

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Comments

Display:

1) Is Holmgren nuts? Emery? Don’t the Flyers ever learn? Year after year they have solid teams, except in net. Now they are looking to sign a guy with not only questionable ability to be a legit starting NHL goalie, but one with obvious emotional ‘issues’.
2) Picking any 18 yr old is a crap shoot. A goalie doubly so. So looking at guys who are a tad older and more proven from the other side of the pond seems to be a sensible alternative

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sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on May 4, 2009 7:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I really hope the Emery to Philly thing is a joke and/or doesn’t happen.
As a Flyers fan, it wouldn’t make a lick of sense to me to go that route.

by eac on May 4, 2009 7:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Jakub Stepanek is a Czech and not on your list but he is playing well at the Worlds and was 1.85 GAA/.944 sv in the Czech Extraliga playoffs. He’s not quite 23 years old and appears to be undrafted.

by Big Picture Guy on May 4, 2009 9:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

From a technical perspective the mid-20’s is likely prime time for harvesting a European goalie. If you believe that goalies read and react more than other positions, it seems plausible that goalies will develop later than defensemen, and even later than forwards. Maybe I can draw a parallel to North American football, cornerbacks are the slowest defensive players to reach full potential, similarly offensive lineman have a longer maturation cycle due to the reactionary nature of the position. But many have been lead to believe if a kid can’t cut it at age 19, it won’t happen.

Compound that with the European development system, of high practice to game ratios, and multisport athletes. (At a coaching clinic Bernd Brückler described the Austrian system where publicly owned rinks were melted down in spring and became multi-sport facilities). The North American system promotes games, games, games, and pushes them year round. There is a great deal of evidence that points to specialized athletes peaking at ages 17-19, and multisport athletes peaking at 21-22, but peaking at a higher skill level.

Everyone’s mileage from the above comments will vary.

by cubanpuckstopper on May 4, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the work James. I know that Desjardins does some work projecting various league stats to the NHL for skaters. I’m not sure if he has something similar for netminders but if so it could really enhance this kind of analysis. I know for sure that the KHL tends to be a lower scoring league in general, so it’s probably necessary to let the air out of the Russian League numbers a bit.

I was also curious if you have a similar list for last season. I know Hiller put up three good seasons in the Swiss League before coming over. It might be good to know which of these guys have established their level over at least a couple of seasons.

Thanks again for all the work here.

by Scott Reynolds on May 4, 2009 10:17 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The KHL isn’t lower scoring than the Elitserien and SM-liiga. They’re all very low scoring leagues, but the KHL actually had more goals scored per game this year than both.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 4, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Has anyone ever done an analysis on just how much difference there is in scoring between leagues?

Obviously Canadian Junior teams (The Q especially) are much higher scoring, then probably the NHL, then the KHL, then other Euro leagues such as Elitserien and SM-liiga.

The stat geek in me was just curious if anyone has actually quantified that data and if I could be pointed to it.

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on May 4, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m going to post it here in a second.

Just for this year, and only for a few of the pro leagues I’ve got it for. Canadian junior hockey, outside of the WHL, is higher scoring than most leagues.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 4, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, based on last year’s numbers, anyway, the QMJHL and OHL are effectively at the same scoring level, with the WHL standing up as a lower-scoring outlier (6 GPG as opposed to 6.8-6.9).

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on May 4, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, I more or less reached that conclusion with my supplemental analysis (see James’ post on goals/league)

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on May 4, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see that now. Nice work.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on May 4, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow. Thanks for the informaiton James. For some reason I had thought the KHL was lower scoring then the other European leagues.

by Scott Reynolds on May 4, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post James

I think Emery – though he’d probably be a fan favourite in Philly – is a bad fit. That kind of atmosphere would encourage him to be even more nuts than he was in Ottawa.

by DarrenM on May 4, 2009 11:24 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cam Ward

Also worth noting, as you probably noticed James, is that Cam Ward sits at #11 in save percentage, .001 behind numbers 9 and 10, and was drafted in the first round.

by Pyronite on May 4, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What are you talking about?

Cam Ward is from Saskatoon and has never played professional hockey in Europe.

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by Chemmy on May 4, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Tim Thomas has!

- every Bruins fan reading this

Shut up when you're talking to me!

by Afino on May 4, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this

“The NHL draft is a crapshoot when it comes to any position, but given scouts are looking at 17- and 18-year-old players, goaltenders are even tougher to project. They’re often at that point only backups, playing every fourth or fifth game, and in my mind, that’s part of the reason you see so few taken in the first round. Of the top 10 netminders in save percentage this year, for example, only Luongo was picked in the top two rounds.”

That’s what I’m talking about.

by Pyronite on May 4, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh, makes sense. You should use the little quote button in the future and include that paragraph, makes it easier for people.

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* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on May 4, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe that Cam Ward is from Sherwood Park – a suburb of Edmonton.

by hockeycountry on May 5, 2009 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still can’t believe the Avs let Kolesnik walk although, I think he wanted to go back home. *Sigh

An ounce of confidence can carry you a mile toward winning. Oh, and Red Wings suck.

by texacogirl on May 4, 2009 7:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah he’s one of the interesting ones on the list given how well he’s played in Russia. I wonder if he could be persuaded to come back.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on May 5, 2009 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let’s put a different spin on Hiller specifally. Disregarding Hiller’s age, how much of this season’s sucess can be attributed to spending two seasons working with Francois Allaire?

Giguere, Bryzgalov, and Hiller makes it hard to argue against his influence.

by cubanpuckstopper on May 5, 2009 9:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs


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