For the first time, I think there is a good chance Balsillie will be successful. The judge has put Bettman in a box. He’s going to have to attach a price to the legitimate NHL interest in the Ontario market. Instead of arguing about whether Balsillie has the right to buy and relocate the team, they will be arguing about how much Balsillie has to pay to acquire a right the NHL doesn’t want to sell.

– Tom Benjamin

I've been pretty skeptical from the beginning that Jim Balsilie's bid for the Coyotes was going to result in a team in Hamilton at any point in the near future, but the judge in this case appears to have been able to cut through a lot of the B.S. and see some value in what's on the table.

Tom's absolutely right: Regardless of the headlines, yesterday was a big win for the Balsillie camp, even if this is far from over, as it's made this decision more about what he's willing to pay to move the Coyotes rather than the league having absolute control over striking down a move. Judge Redfield Baum tossed out Bettman's "expressions of interest" for what they were (i.e. meaningless), dressed down pretty much every lawyer who addressed him and has the foresight to see that keeping this franchise in Phoenix isn't nearly as simple as the league is making it out to be.

So much for this being a "sham bankruptcy."

I liked this back-and-forth from the trial as well, as per Kevin McGran at the Toronto Star:

NHL lawyer Tony Clark was next, left to explain why the Quebec Nordiques could be sold and moved in less than a month while insisting that approving Balsillie and relocating the Coyotes could take months because of the requirements of its constitution.

"The NHL doesn't always follow what's in the constitution, does it?" asked the judge.

Clark explained that the Quebec to Colorado move got a waiver due to "extraordinary" circumstances.

"Are these extraordinary circumstances?" asked the judge.

"We'll find out," said Clark.

"This team has lost something along the lines of $300 million in 12 years. How extraordinary does it have to get?" said the judge.

Some have also noted that what's needed to bail out the Coyotes are some major concessions in the lease from the City of Glendale, but I imagine that what the judge wonders is why such breaks weren't first offered to Jerry Moyes? How appropriate is it that he foots the bill for years only to have the next ownership group take over a more valuable property by buying in at a discount? Does that make any sense?

In any event, this talk of a relocation fee has certainly made waves here in Toronto, where the media are speculating just what figure the NHL will come up with and how those funds would potentially be doled out. I personally don't think it's unreasonable for the league to look for at least $150-million for the rights to the Southern Ontario market, and much of that should be offered to the Maple Leafs and Sabres as an indemnity.

The issue, if you're an owner of one of the other 27 teams not involved here (a few of whom we hear from here), is that an expansion team into Hamilton or Toronto would potentially be worth $10-million per team (after a payout to the Leafs and Sabres), and a deal like this, where the extra cash goes to Moyes, would see them only pocket what's left of the relocation fee (maybe $2-million each).

At this point, however, you wonder how much of a stomach owners will have for a protracted battle if Balsillie comes up with the cash. (If he walks away, this is all moot.)

It'll be pretty interesting to see if the two sides can even agree on a relocation fee at all, or if the judge has to wade in here. This could be a major turning point in the case – or just another turn in the road – and could be the subject of major litigation in the future.

The fastest way for the NHL to make this all go away would be to offer up an expansion franchise in Southern Ontario tomorrow, open the bidding to everyone and welcome Balsillie onboard if he wins the auction.

But I'm not holding my breath on that one.