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There's only one reason that an overwhelming majority of the pundits are picking the Red Wings to hoist the Stanley Cup about 12 hours from now, and it has nothing to do with Osgood's goaltending, Zetterberg's checking, Hossa's slump, Lidstrom's tender nethers or any or all of the above.

It has everything to do with where Game 7 will be played.

This has been a truly homer series, one of the most starkly divided best-of-sevens I can remember, and for that alone, it makes sense that Detroit finishes the job and wins its fifth Stanley Cup in 12 seasons.

The differences between the Wings' play at Joe Louis Arena compared to The Igloo, based on this admittedly small six-game sample size? Detroit's scored an average of two goals more per game at home, has a team save percentage a full 10 per cent better, has a power play effectiveness nearly double their road totals and a PK that has shutdown the Pens at a rate nearly 20-per-cent higher than what its managed in Pittsburgh.

Detroit has been on the power play more often at home, been shorthanded less, had 15 more hits per game and won nearly 56 per cent of its faceoffs.

As I've pointed out after both games in Detroit and in Pittsburgh, with two masterful coaches, the matchups have mattered in this series, and they should matter again tonight. The Pens simply need to generate better scoring opportunities, get more from their top line, play more disciplined and get a better performance from Marc-Andre Fleury. They need either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin to be the best player in a game filled with future Hall of Famers.

Scoring first would help, too, as the winning team has done in all but Game 2. Detroit's 10-1 in these playoffs when they get the first goal and only 6-6 when they don't, while the Penguins have had better luck battling back, going 9-4 when scoring first and 7-4 when not.

But Detroit has also not lost a game when leading after the first (7-0) or second periods (12-0) and has allowed only 10 even-strength goals at home in 12 games. They're 11-1 at Joe Louis, with the only loss coming in triple overtime way back in Game 2 of the second round.

"We’ve just been way more comfortable on home ice in the playoffs," Wings coach Mike Babcock said. "We were a great road team in the regular season. And we haven’t been as good. I think we’re 4-6 on the road in the playoffs. We’ve been way better at home, way more comfortable, way quicker, way more assertive. We look forward to that again [tonight]. In saying all that, when you come out in this rink or come to the Joe, you’re comfortable. This is where we work. This is where we live. It’s our fans, it’s our city. And we’re proud to be from Michigan and have the opportunity we do in front of our fans."

Pittsburgh's in tough, but the good news is that it's all down to this — and, hey, anything could happen.

But my money's on The Wing Dynasty, continuing its reign.