2009 Stanley Cup final: Who Crosby has faced
by James Mirtle on Jun 2, 2009 8:00 AM CDT
in Statistics
25 comments
One of the big differences now that the series shifts to Pittsburgh is the fact that Penguins coach Dan Bylsma gets last change, and a major advantage there is going to be getting Sidney Crosby away from some of the relentless checking he's faced. Expect the Pens captain to be double shifted and put on other lines in order to get him away from Zetterberg and Lidstrom, who he's matched up with the majorty of the first two games.
With so few penalties called, much of this series to this point has also been played at 5-on-5, which means line matching and head-to-head battles are all the more important. (Something that's bad news for the Penguins.)
Here's what Crosby's icetime breakdown looks like for Games 1 and 2 against the different Red Wings lines and pairings:
And the data behind those charts:
Crosby's averaged about 19 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time a game, well up from his regular-season average of about 15:30, and that hurts a player used to picking up about 40 per cent of his point production on the power play. The Red Wings are such a dominant even strength team (their 5-on-5 for/against ratio is nearly double the Pens in the postseason) that having so few penalties called plays into their game – even when you consider how lethal Detroit's power play was this season.
At least if there are penalties called you have a chance at getting more opportunities with a man advantage.
The Red Wings have been a top four team in every single postlockout season at outscoring their opposition at even strength, and have allowed only 10 even-strength goals in 11 home playoff games (when they've had last change). Even on the road in these playoffs, 45 per cent of the goals Detroit has allowed have come when they've been shorthanded. (On average, and depending on the season we're talking about, special teams goals only make up about 30 per cent of the goals scored in an NHL game. That's a lot of scoring considering power plays generally make up only around 12.5 per cent – seven or eight minutes – of your average game.)
Pittsburgh needs Crosby to break free, and my guess he only does that by (a) getting away from Lidstrom and Zetterberg and (b) getting some significant time on the power play.
The chances are decent he does both in Game 3.
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On what are you basing the idea that the Penguins will get any significant power play time tonight? Detroit doesn’t get called for many penalties typically, and that counts doubly in this series.
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by JustinM on Jun 2, 2009 9:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Because the league wants a long, competitive series, and the best way to do it is to call penalties on Detroit and give Pittsburgh a chance on the power play.
(Before anyone freaks out, I’M ONLY KIDDING.)
Probably if the matchups are more to the Penguins’ advantage, the Detroit lines against Crosby would be more likely to commit penalties just because they will have a more difficult time containing him. That would be my guess and expectation.
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by Baroque on Jun 2, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t have any problem with the base assumption—that the matchups will now likely favor the Penguins—but at the same time, the matchups favored Detroit in the first two games and they didn’t come away with a surfeit of power plays, either. At this point, I’m not sure what to expect will get a call. High sticks and elbows don’t seem to matter, but a light shove in the back will get you two in the pen for interference. I have to think that the players from top to bottom of both teams really have no idea what they can get away with and what will get them rung up.
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by JustinM on Jun 2, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to think that the players from top to bottom of both teams really have no idea what they can get away with and what will get them rung up.
Yeah, neither do we….
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by Afino on Jun 2, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they don’t, trust me, we’ve got no clue.
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by JustinM on Jun 2, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just think that, at some point, there are going to be penalties called in this series, and I bet there are a few against the Wings tonight. Just a hunch.
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by James Mirtle on Jun 2, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
Those pie charts are really striking. Everyone knows about the matchup advantages that home ice can bring, but I wouldn’t have expected it to be so severe. Especially with Zetterberg.
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by self loather on Jun 2, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Crosby/Malkin
Can you add a series of charts for Malkin, if Crosby is facing Zetterburg and Kidstrom then who is shutting down Malkin.
Also Potvin made an interesting comment this morning on XM, its not just who Crosby is facing, but that with Kunitz and Guerin he is almost facing Detroit alone. He fights to get the puck up and then has to fight to generate a scoring chance with his wingers doing precious little.
by sctlaw on Jun 2, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Haven’t seen the exact numbers but you’d have to assume Stuart and Kronwall are shutting down Malkin. They’d probably be the number one pairing on more than half the teams in the NHL anyways.
by Illegal Curve on Jun 2, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Them and the Filppula line. Just imagine the graphs flipped around with the second line and pairing in place of the first and that’s pretty close to what Malkin’s up against.
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by James Mirtle on Jun 2, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby did break free
James:
I’ve been tracking scoring chances, and Crosby is doing OK in that regard on offence, with seven excellent scoring chances in the series, though four of them came in the third period against the Wings in Game Two. (Only Malkin has more Grade “A” scoring chances, with nine at even strength. Helm leads the Wings with six at even strength).
Crosby has been giving up a lot of chances, too, though, as he and Zetterberg are fighting each other to a standstill, pretty much.
The key for Crosby, I believe, is for Guerin and Kunitz to get physical with Rafalski and Lidstrom, go hard, hard, hard to the net, open things up for Crosby. Lidstrom is so smart he can shutdown all of Crosby’s usual passing lanes, but hard plays to the net might give him more trouble, as Crosby showed in the third, when only the great play of Detroit’s backup goalie Zetterberg stopped him from scoring.
P.S. Excellent pie charts. State of the blogging art. How did you do that? And where did you get this shift information?
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jun 2, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably Time On Ice.
The Pens have definitely been creating chances but they obviously have caught some bad luck (lots of posts). Hopefully the breaks start evening out because I’d hate to have this series over in 4.
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by PPP on Jun 2, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So would the NHL, I would imagine. Otherwise, enjoy (not) watching the Stanley Cup get handed out on Versus, America!
I didn’t see Sunday’s game, but the bounces were kind of ridiculous for Detroit in Game 1. How often do you see two go off the goalie and in from behind the net? Granted, Fleury could’ve hugged his post on both of them, but it’s still a pretty strange way to lose a hockey game.
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by Doogie2K on Jun 2, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Detroit still outchanced and outplayed Pittsburgh at evens in game 1. Game 2, different story – Pitts prolly deserved to win that one.
by R O on Jun 2, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All of Detroit’s goals in game 2 were shot in directly. The first and third goals where long shots that beat Fleury, and the second goal was a closer backhand by Filppula over a sprawling Fleury. No crazy bounces, and in fact, all the goals cleanly beat Fleury (no tipped pucks, etc).
by jameshstephenson on Jun 2, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fleury could’ve hugged his post on both of them, but it’s still a pretty strange way to lose a hockey game.
Welcome to Joe Louis. You see these kinds of bounces all the time. Osgood has talked about how, when the puck goes wide of the net, you have to get to the post before it comes off the boards. It provides a significant home rink advantage, but the bounces aren’t as fluky as they seem.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 2, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given Detroit’s domination at evens and their trouble on the PK all playoffs, the league’s/refs’ decision to put their whistles in their pockets has played directly into the Wings’ hands in Games 1 and 2. After Malkin’s PP goal in the first period of Game 2, there would be no further penalties against the Wings, despite a number of fairly obvious infractions that would be routine calls during the season (or against a different team?). The winning goal was the direct result of an obvious hook to the hands by Hossa that caused a turnover in the Penguins’ zone. Meanwhile Zetterberg has done a superb job as back-up goalie with a pair of glove grabs in the crease that somehow all four of the league’s hand-picked officials missed.
I am rooting mildly for the Penguins, but mostly for a good, long, and fair series, and so far I haven’t been seeing that. The bounces and the hockey gods are one thing, but laissez-faire officiating is on the league. Why change their standards in the Finals?
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by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 2, 2009 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The reason the league’s officials missed the glove grab in the crease in Game 2 by Zetterberg was because it never happened. Did you really see that? Then the “hook” to the hands by Hossa? So that’s the story now that the phantom slash was debunked. Have you ever heard of a stick lift. The Wings won the game so everyone is quick to point out questionable plays against the Pens, but they fail to mention all of the exact same thing that the Pens are doing and getting away with. The reffing has been completely consistent within these games. If you want those calls made, then you will get the same amount called on the Pens. What do you want 1 or 2 PP’s for each team or 5 to 6 PP’s for each team? Either way it’s not going to change the outcome of games. The Pens still need to score more than 1 even strength goal in two games to beat the Wings.
by dewman8810 on Jun 2, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was never a slash. It’s pretty clear that when he goes to lift the Pens’ stick that he hooks his hands which has been a penalty all year.
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by PPP on Jun 2, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sure that if we are fussing about that call that we also have to fuss about the hook on Helm’s breakaway in game 1.
by R O on Jun 2, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quite true.
My main concern with the lack of calls hasn’t been that sort of thing, though. It’s been the things that could legitimately get someone hurt: the Kunitz pile-on in Game 1 well after the whistle, the two high sticks and an elbow all inflicted on Jordan Staal in the first period of Game 2. That sort of thing. (I will grant you that I’d like to see the hooks called, too, but I am and always have been a rules stickler.)
Someone shouldn’t come out of a situation with a messed up face and not draw a penalty.
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by JustinM on Jun 2, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Malkin whacking Zetterberg in the head with his stick?
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 2, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because I didn’t list it, that clearly means I want people to ignore it.
No, it means it wasn’t one that popped immediately into mind while hastily writing a post while sitting at work. Yes, Malkin, too.
Pittsburgh Black And Gold -- So new, it still smells like paint!
by JustinM on Jun 2, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
It all stems from having one standard for the first 3 rounds of the playoffs and then a new one in the Final.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Jun 2, 2009 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The non-calls have gone both ways. Osgood’s just been better at stopping the results. See, for instance, Malkin’s trip and breakaway in game one.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 2, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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