Can Malkin win the Conn Smythe if the Pens come up short?
His team may be down 3-2 in the series and he may personally be coming off a terrible performance in Game 5, but Evgeni Malkin's had a whale of a postseason — one of the best we've seen in years. In terms of scoring prowess, he's posted some of the highest totals ever and the most since Wayne Gretzky's 40-point performance 16 years ago.
But is that enough to win the Conn Smythe if his team fails to take home the big prize?
Only one skater in NHL history has won the playoff MVP while on the losing team: Reggie Leach of the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, who had 19 goals and 24 points in 16 playoff games while his team lost in a finals sweep to the Habs. Four goaltenders, meanwhile, have also won the award while on losing teams, with J-S Giguere of the Mighty Ducks the most recent winning loser in 2003.
It's not hard to make an impressive argument for Malkin. He currently has 11 more points than the closest Red Wing (Henrik Zetterberg), leads the postseason in shots on goal and is tied for the lead in game-winning goals. He also leads in power-play points with 16, including seven goals, and is third in ice time for a forward in these playoffs (21:03 per game), behind only Crosby and Zetterberg.
So, those are the pros. The cons when it comes to his Conn candidacy?
For one, Malkin's no defensive powerhouse, and despite scoring all those points, he's only a plus-2 after 22 games. He also doesn't kill penalties and hasn't been getting the most difficult opposition as teams focus on Crosby.
He's also tied with Joni Pitkanen and Joe Corvo for having been on the ice for the most 5-on-5 goals against of any player, and has a GA/60 of 3.35, second highest on the Pens. Crosby's, in comparison, is just 2.22, while Zetterberg is at 1.39.
Still, I imagine Malkin is on a lot of ballots come the deciding game, depending on what happens in the rest of the series. Gaudy scoring totals have a way of wooing voters.
The other candidates
Sidney Crosby: Second to only Malkin in scoring, Crosby leads the postseason scoring parade with 15 goals and is a plus-10 despite drawing heavy checking all playoffs.
Johan Franzen: With another 12 goals in 21 playoff games to this point, Franzen may score some points for being a dominant postseason player two years in a row. Including last season and this, he's averaged .68 goals per game in the playoffs, a 56-goal pace over 82 games, and leads all players with 25 goals in 37 games.
Chris Osgood: Barring a meltdown in one of the final two games, the veteran netminder is likely the leading candidate from the Wings to be named MVP. Osgood has a 15-6 record with a 2.00 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, although those numbers are worse than what he posted last season when Zetterberg won the Conn Smythe.
Henrik Zetterberg: The Red Wings defensive ace with Pavel Datsyuk ailing much of the postseason, Zetterberg also leads Detroit in scoring with 24 points and is plus-30 over the past two playoff runs (43 games). Some voters may shy away from awarding him the trophy for a second season in a row (the first time that will have happened since Mario Lemieux in 1991 and 1992) but he has posted nearly identical totals to last year's 13 goals, 27 points and plus-16 performance.
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Before the G5 win last night, I made a post about the Conn Smythe race over at Cycle Like Sedins. Mostly I covered a bit of why Leach won it (19G was a record that has since by tied by Jari Kurri), explained that I didn’t think he deserved it (5 of his 19 goals came in a single game against the Bruins, he only had 5 assists to go with his goal totals. Then I pretty much awarded my completely fictional and non-counting vote for giving the trophy to Chris Osgood as a sort of lifetime achievement award.
The guy has never recieved any individual accolades except for a few Jennings trophies and a single all-star team, but he’s going to finish near the tops of a lot of counting categories for goalies, through a combination of luck, team effect, and individual performance. If there isn’t a clear cut winner, voters typically tend to go for the winning goalie. Especially given his playoff performance versus his regular season performance, I’d like to see Ozzie get it as an award for a long career of fairly solid performance. He’s no world beater, and I don’t think he belongs in the HHOF, but there’s no reason he can’t get some props for what he is: a pretty decent goalie, who has performed at a consistent level for a very long time, and been an important part of some very special teams.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
by IAmJoe on Jun 7, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Though I have reservations about giving the award to someone on a team that may lose, it should go to either Malkin or Crosby.
Both of them are the most valuable to their team. The Red Wings proved in Chicago and the first two games of this series that they can lose several major components of their team and still be very much functional.
It’s not to say Lidstrom and Datsyuk aren’t valuable, rather that the Penguins organization revolves around Crosby and Malkin much more than Detroit does Zetterberg or Franzen.
The Red Wings fan in me would like to see it go to Osgood for the sentiments posted above by Joe, but despite his sound performance to this point—certainly the best of the goalies making it to the conference finals—I wouldn’t say he’s been the crux of their playoff run.
Zetterberg is really the only Red Wing I can envision winning. If the Wings close it out in six, he picks up a few key points whilst keeping Malkin and Crosby off the score sheet, then the gap isn’t that disparate between them. He’d be decisively better than both defensively, while at least in the same ballpark as both offensively.
by hallock on Jun 7, 2009 2:04 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Zetterberg’s my choice as well for similar reasons, but I think some may not want to see him win it twice given he hasn’t exactly had a dominating performance.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jun 7, 2009 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both of them are the most valuable to their team. The Red Wings proved in Chicago and the first two games of this series that they can lose several major components of their team and still be very much functional.
I really hate the idea though of giving a trophy to guy for being the only bright spot on an otherwise weak team though, and devaluing the contributions of great individuals on a team like the Wings because they, by design, do not solely depend on 1-2 players.
Also, I think its important to note, a very important part of the reason why Malkin and Crosby are by far the biggest bright spots on that team is because their outrageous salaries hamstring the team, preventing them from acquiring quality depth. Malkin/Crosby are by far the best players on their team, but because of their salaries, it makes it exceedingly hard to get anyone else on the team, and you end up skating with guys like Satan and Fedotenko. They inhibit the depth of their team, forcing their pedestal to grow even higher.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
by IAmJoe on Jun 7, 2009 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really hate the idea though of giving a trophy to guy for being the only bright spot on an otherwise weak team though, and devaluing the contributions of great individuals on a team like the Wings because they, by design, do not solely depend on 1-2 players.
I agree. That rhetoric is fine when discussing the reg. season MVP, but the Conn Smythe should be for the brightest player on all involved teams
…their outrageous salaries hamstring the team, preventing them from acquiring quality depth.
This is a bit of a stretch. They each took less than they would have been offered as free agents, and by far less than they are considered to be worth.
Malkin has been spectacular. If the Pens pull out games 6 & 7 and win it, then he deserves it. As much as I hate to say it, Osgood should get the Smythe if the Wings win it.
-David
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by pascaldupweevil on Jun 7, 2009 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When the trophy was dedicated...
…the criteria was spelled out:
“The Conn Smythe Trophy is an annual award given to the most valuable player for his team in the playoffs.”
It may be semantic, but it is what it is.
On the other hand, the Selke has become the prize awarded to the best two-way player, despite the original intention of rewarding the best defensive forward. Datsyuk is pretty good, but is he more defensive than Draper (or Pahlsson, or Kesler). I guess the original intentions carry little weight with today’s hockey writers. You never used to need to recover from cancer to win the Masterton, either.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 7, 2009 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can make a very strong argument that Datsyuk was the league’s best defensive player last season without factoring in his offence. Bad example.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jun 8, 2009 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last season?
I can’t remember what I had for breakfast.
I like Kesler for this year’s Award, but I fear Datsyuk’s two-way play and reputation might carry him further than his strictly defensive play should.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I picked Mike Richards this year and based my picks almost entirely on their defensive prowess.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jun 8, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A fine choice
I’m as big a Datsyuk fan as the next guy, but nobody is gonna convince me that he had a great defensive season. Especially when compared to the previous one.
With all of the Awards the NHL already hands out, there is no need for another, but if there were a best overall player award, or best two-way forward award, Datsyuk would certainly be a fine candidate to win, year after year.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Third in takeaways and a +37 on a team whose defense leaked like a sieve this season? Datsyuk’s accomplishment is more amazing because his team was that bad during the regular season.
"Don't touch my dream with your dirty hands!"
by Justice and Rule on Jun 8, 2009 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Datsyuk may have been third in takeaways (or even second), but don’t forget who led the league – defensive guru, Evgeni Malkin.
Datsyuk’s +34 (not +37) is impressive, or at least, as impressive as that flawed stat can be. Though he did trail defensive gurus, Kreijci and Wheeler.
Neither of these measures are indicative of defensive prowess, as much as they are of puck possession and team play. I’m sure Datsyuk’s CORSI rating is also high, but all that tells me is that Detroit has a good possession offence.
“Leaked like a sieve”? Maybe by Detroit’s own standards. The fact remains that of the 244 GA that they allowed, 71 of them came while trying to kill a penalty. Compare that to Pittsburgh’s 239 GA, with only 60 on the PK, and Detroit’s supposedly sieve-like defense allowed only 173 non-PP goals, to Pittsburgh’s 179.
Exploring that further, one sees that with so few penalties taken by Detroit, their 71 PK failures ranks them way below Pittsburgh, with the Pens PK ranked 8th, and the Wings’ PK ranked 25th.
With Datsyuk seeing so much time on the PK, isn’t it fair to say that he was derelict of his duties (alongside Zetterberg, Cleary and Filppula)?
If you want to credit him for a great +/- (which was aided by having four excellent teammates on the ice with him), shouldn’t you also fault him for a terrible PK (when he has only three or less teammates with whom to share the blame)?
Finally, it’s hard to say that Datsyuk’s “team was that bad during the regular season”, when they finished in 2nd, and 13 points better then Pittsburgh. Their offence blew everyone away, while their EV defence wasn’t that bad. A more accurate statement would be that their PK as a “team was that bad during the regular season”. And whose fault was that? Give Datsyuk credit where credit is due.
That said, he still had an excellent defensive season. My qualm is simply that it did not approach the level of excellence that he established the previous year. To say that, above everyone other than Kesler and Richards, Datsyuk was the top defensive forward, ignores the season enjoyed by several players who did not score 97 points.
I will re-iterate that Datsyuk is the best two-way player, and routinely ranks among the best defensive forwards. IMO, however, he did not rank third in the league during this particular season, if defensive attributes are somehow isolated.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Wings’ penalty kill was much better with Datsyuk on the ice than it was when he wasn’t.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/5_on_4.php?sort=7&mingp=&mintoi=&team=DET&pos=
His rating was vastly better than any other forward who got a lot of time killing penalties. (Holmstrom is the only one who had as much time on the ice, but he also missed about half of the season.) The guy whose reputation takes a real beating from the soft PK the Wings had this year is Zetterberg.
You are looking in the wrong place for the blame on this one. Datsyuk is that good a defensive player, and was this season.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 8, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually… you’re looking at PP rankings, not PK rankings. Datsyuk didn’t have a banner year on the PK.
TD’s right, basically. I think Datsyuk deserved the Selke last year, but not this year. If it has to go to a Red Wing, it should go to Zetterberg, who has better defensively at even strength and on the PK against similar opposition with (slightly) less time with Lidstrom. But I’m certainly not convinced it should go to a Red Wing.
by RyanV on Jun 8, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If those are the power play numbers, why are the figures for goals against really high, and the figure for goals for really low? Did the Red Wings really give up 5.48 goals per 60 minutes they were on the power play with Datsyuk on the ice, while only scoring 0.87 per 60?
I agree that something is messed up, but the numbers are very, very wrong if that’s for the power play.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 8, 2009 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan’s right — you’ve got the wrong link there.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jun 9, 2009 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure that I am the one looking in the wrong place
The link you provided, and the conclusions you have drawn from that information, deals with powerplay.
If you look in the right place:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2008/4_on_5.php?sort=7&mingp=&mintoi=&team=DET&pos=
you will find that Zetterberg is less to blame than Datsyuk, while Holmstrom, of course, does not kill penalties.
Now if your point was that Datsyuk had a very good season on the powerplay, then the numbers you provided certainly support that. As for relying upon the BTN rating for either of these arguments, I would urge you to consider how trivial that column becomes. It is a measure of +/- relative to the rest of the team, but since both links point to special teams, the information is largely without meaning.
One thing you could successfully argue, is that Datsyuk seems to allow fewer SHG against (thus giving him a higher BTN rating on your 5-on-4 link. I hardly think the sample sizes involved make it significant, however. Another weird anomaly involves how rarely Holmstrom seems to allow shorties to be scored against him.
Getting back to the PK debate, the link I provided is equally useless to determining defensive prowess. Datsyuk may register a BTN rating of only +0.27, compared to Zetterberg’s +2.02, but all that says is that of Datsyuk’s 2 SHP, he seems to have scored one of them while two-men short. Zetterberg also has only 2 SHP, so his higher rating on this page implies that he scored both while playing 4-on-5.
Utterly meaningless, I’m sure you’ll agree.
So what meaningful data can be mined from the link that I provided, that is pertinent to the discussion about defensive prowess?
- Datsyuk seems to face slightly tougher powerplay opponents than Zetterberg (1.52 to 1.33)
- This explains why he allows slightly more COMPGFON (7.96 to 7.79)
- Datsyuk’s lower TOI at 4-on-5 actually implies that he allowed a wider margin of total PPG against
- That I ramble on way too long and type too slow, resulting in RyanV’s post appearing above this (although I only spotted it appearing in yellow below this one, a minute ago)
Look, there is plenty of blame to go around for Detroit’s lousy PK, and Zetterberg is not immune. One thing that stands out upon studying this data is that Draper played the most PK time and allowed the fewest PPG against, suggesting that my initial comment about Draper being more defensive couldn’t have been that far off.
Can we just agree that Datsyuk is an amazing defensive player, who may or may not have had an off-year, but who garnered a Selke nod based largely upon his reputation and current belt-holder status? If not, then can we agree to disagree?
My original point dealt with most valuable playoff performers, and somehow devaolved into best Detroit penalty killers in the regular season. What a friggin tangeant.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 11:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I really don’t get this. GFOI is the goals the Wings score when the given player is on the ice. GAON is goals against while that player is on the ice. For Datsyuk in this chart, the respective figures are 7.96 and 0.73. If they really scored ten times as many short handed goals as they gave up power play goals, I’m curious as to how the penalty kill got a bad rep.
Though, now that I look, there are a different set of columns that say exactly the opposite. Does COMPGAOI mean Comparative Goals Against on Ice? What sort of comparison?
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 9, 2009 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It means “competition goals against on ice”. Basically, it’s the average GAON/60 for all the players Datsyuk played against, weighted by ice time. Similarly for COMPGAOFF, etc. The column you want is just plain GFON/60, GAON/60, GFOFF/60, and GAOFF/60.
by RyanV on Jun 9, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, while I like the stuff Behind the Net does, it would be nice if it were possible to figure out what all the information is. Where the hell did you get that information? I certainly wasn’t able to track it down.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 9, 2009 2:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The site’s gotten more complicated every year. It’s nice to have the extra info, but it was much easier to jump into this kind of data a couple seasons ago.
by RyanV on Jun 9, 2009 2:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blame me for asking Gabe to add all sorts of whacky things to it.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jun 9, 2009 2:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A very similar mistake is being made in this post, so I think it’s worth the risk of repeating myself, just for the sake of clarity.
Datsyuk didn’t “allow” slightly more COMPGFON. Those are the goals scored by the players he played against in other games. In theory, COMPGFON should measure the quality of opposition that someone faces. Datsyuk allowed significantly more GAON/60 than Zetterberg. Those are the goals scored against Detroit while he was on the ice. GAOFF/60 are goals scored against Detroit while he was off the ice (but still in the lineup).
QUALCOMP = (COMPGFON – COMPGAON) – (COMPGFOFF – COMPGAOFF)
Rating = (GFON/60 – GAON/60) – (GFOFF/60 – GAOFF/60)
Sorry for being a pedant, but these things are poorly explained at behindthenet, and you can’t use them unless you know what they mean.
by RyanV on Jun 9, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, that clears up a few things
I was certain that I was reading some things wrongly.
Like now, for example. I’ll just assume I misunderstood your admission to be attracted to children ;-)
So for the purposes of 5-on-4, I’ll assume GFON/60 and GFOFF/60 always = 0,
and for the purposes of 4-on-5, I’ll assume the same for the GA numbers.
Or maybe I’m assuming too much, again.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 9, 2009 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be interested to know what the justification for these computations is. If this is the way it’s constructed, I’m not sure that the competition figures actually have much useful information in them. Those numbers are going to be very sensitive to what the quality of opposition those players are facing is. If the guys you play against go up against the top lines of other teams, they aren’t going to look as good as they really are, and so your numbers are going to be skewed as well.
This really needs an iterative process. I’d also like to see some regression work to try to figure out what actually leads to wins. All of this information seems like it should be pretty valuable, but it’s often a surprise what turns out to really be useful.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 9, 2009 2:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, a lot of skirting around the issue here. Your “isolation” of his stats misses the complete picture, and hopefully my points will show you that.
- Malkin beat him in Takeaways, but he also beat him in Giveaways. Datsyuk’s ratio of Takeaways to Giveaways is in the 2:1 or better range. So, quality-wise, Datsyuk is far superior because he has many more takeaways than he has giveaways, and is one of the league leaders in the stat.
- I thought he was a +31, but maybe I’m wrong. Kreijci and Wheeler are ahead of him, yes. Then again, their team has a Goals Differential that is 20 better than the Red Wings this year. The Red Wings last year also were 20 better in the goals differential department. And yet, Datsyuk’s +/- drop isn’t nearly what it should be. So while he didn’t top the +/- department, it’s amazing that he was able to stay there given the Red Wings’ problems.
- Yes, leaked like a sieve. They let in 60 more goals this year with essentially the same team. I don’t care if that’s good for other teams, with that many more goals going in (And, remember, the Red Wings didn’t score enough to make those up in the differential) Datsyuk’s defensive stats should be significantly lower. The fact that it barely affected him speaks to his presence.
He isn’t that far off his season last year, statistically. What makes it so much more amazing is that the Red Wings are much worse than they were last year defensively. I won’t use any Behind the Net statistics (Since I don’t know how to read them any better than you guys do nowadays), but I think it’s obvious that his season was great despite the failures of his team.
"Don't touch my dream with your dirty hands!"
by Justice and Rule on Jun 9, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give me an objective definition of what “most valuable player” means. You can’t. Nothing is really spelled out.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 8, 2009 7:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may not be able to...
…but I can try.
Most valuable, as an accountant might attest, would be the asset worth the most.
Therefore, Brad Richards used to be number one, at $7.8M.
Now, that distinction belongs to Ovechkin, at $9.5M.
If we’re talking about post-season value, with the way players are compensated, I suppose Crosby and Malkin will end up making the most money from their teams, signifying that they are both appraised at equal value, and both are valued at 16.8% higher than Hossa.
So to stick to the definition that is spelled out, I suppose the Hart trophy will belong to Ovie and the Conn Smythe will be awarded to Malkin.
As an accountant, do you disagree with the only objective definition that I can deduce?
I’ve got another one for you. The CFL awards the Most Outstanding Player, which, in accounting terms, refers to the player who has the highest unpaid salary due to him.
With all of the wacky awards that the KHL hands out, perhaps they should add this one as well. I nomintate Ray Emery for his claims of miscalculated exchange rates on his paycheque.
I love this site for the plethora of experts in their fields among the regulars. Besides the resident accountant and resident lawyer, perhaps someone could identify themselves as a cunning linguist and settle this semantic debate for us.
My original point is hardly uncommon. That “most valuable” signifies something different than “most talented” or “best” or even “best overall”. Detroit fans take pride in having the deepest, most talented team in the league. Is it too much to ask that they not also lay claim to having the single most valuable player, as well? I mean, best owner, best GM, best head coach. Give somebody else a chance to shine.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot
Best defenceman and best two-way forward.
Let Geno have his most valuable distinction. The guy was born in 86, but that didn’t stop Shero from placating him with $8.7M, anyway. Be a mensch.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can Geno be the most valuable, when it was Gonchar’s return which allowed them to get into the playoffs? I mean, when Gonchar wasn’t there, Geno was still putting up fantastic numbers… and they were also missing the playoffs. He’s hardly the most important person on that team, let alone the MVP of the league.
"Don't touch my dream with your dirty hands!"
by Justice and Rule on Jun 8, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops. Wrong MVP. Long day at work… ;-)
"Don't touch my dream with your dirty hands!"
by Justice and Rule on Jun 8, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As an accountant, do you disagree with the only objective definition that I can deduce?
No, but it isn’t useful in the current context. It gets us nowhere in trying to determine who should get an award for being “the most valuable player.”
My original point is hardly uncommon. That "most valuable" signifies something different than "most talented" or "best" or even "best overall". Detroit fans take pride in having the deepest, most talented team in the league. Is it too much to ask that they not also lay claim to having the single most valuable player, as well? I mean, best owner, best GM, best head coach. Give somebody else a chance to shine.
Sorry. No affirmative action here. If one team has the most valuable player as well as being all the rest of it, then the guy on that team gets the award. Given the number of times that Nick Lidstrom should have won the Hart Trophy, but hasn’t, I’m not even sympathetic to this whine.
What I am establishing is that there is no definition of “most valuable player” that is really obvious. Anyone who insists that there is is projecting their own definition onto a situation where there isn’t one. We’re all going to have to define it our own way, and then suffer the brickbats of those who think it’s idiotic. And, let me tell you, I think that there are a lot of people out there who define it in an idiotic way. Anyone who would vote for Justin Morneau as the AL’s most valuable player when it’s clear that he was the third most valuable player on his own team that year, is an idiot.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 8, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, you really are an accountant, aren't you?
Your sense of humour makes Ray Charles’ sense of sight look like a Red Wings fan’s sense of entitlement.
Give the bloody award to Abd al-Qadir, for all it’s worth. If the league can’t even be bothered to consult more than 4% of the PWHA, what credibility does the trophy carry anyway? Might as well let fans text-message for the winner.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 8, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s close enough for someone else to sweep in claim it before the series is over, and not a very fancy pick, but I still favor Zetterberg for his overall two way play. When you’re way above the mean in scoring allowed while being in charge of covering Rick Nash, Ryan Getzlaf, Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby and yet still among the leaders in scoring yourself… well it’s tough for me to envision how someone else could be doing more to help his team win.
by Costa24 on Jun 7, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice comment, Costa.
That’s exactly my rationale too.
Zetterberg is 7-9-16 at even strength, +14 for the playoffs in 21 games.
Primarily matched against his line, Nash, Getzlaf, Toews, Kane, and Crosby have combined to go 5-4-9 at even strength, -17, in 26 games. And of those 5 goals, I think 2 or 3 of them came when that player’s line managed to avoid Zetterberg on home ice (like Crosby the other night).
Franzen and Cleary play a huge role in this too for sure, both are also very good defensively. But when in doubt, go with the center. I think Zetterberg deserves the award again unless Pittsburgh manages to win, or take it to 7 games and lose despite some superhuman effort from Malkin or Crosby…something like 6 points in the next 2 games or something. Don’t see that happening though.
by Make a play Whitner on Jun 8, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s a tough race isn’t it? I’d bank on Osgood myself if the Wings close this out.
by Sean Zandberg on Jun 7, 2009 2:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Zetterberg’s been on the ice for four empty net goals for and none against. Even crazier is that he’s scored all four of those. That inflates his stats quite a bit.
I’m more of a +/- guy than a goals-and-assists guy, so I prefer Crosby for the Conn Smythe over Malkin. On a team that’s just +2 overall, being a +9 over 22 games is pretty good.
I probably go with Osgood, pending his results in the next game or two. He gets help, sure, but at some point a .927 save percentage has to mean something. (And a ludicrous .952 at even strength.)
by RyanV on Jun 7, 2009 3:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
James is in a good position to answer this
As my drug-addled memory serves (read: hopefully doesn’t fail to serve), the Conn Smythe winner is voted on by select members of the PHWA, including every Detroit and Pittsburgh-based member.
Voting typically takes place early in the third period of a potential elimination game, but the secret ballots are destroyed in the event that the series is extended.
Therefore, if Osgood is en route to shutting out the Pens after two periods on Tuesday, the odds of him winning the vote go up, regardless of his potential to later allow Malkin to score a natural hattie that sends the game to OT. Conversely, if Malkin nets an early hat-trick, but then Zetterberg scores three in the third to come from behind and win the Cup, maybe Geno takes home the consolation prize.
Either way, if the series goes back to Detroit for Game 7, a lot will depend on who does what in Game 6. Another road-loss by Osgood hurts his chances, given that voting would have been completed before his potential Game 7 victory. As things stand today, I can easily see Malkin taking the Award, and almost anything that happens in a Game 6 Pittsburgh win would almost clinch it for him. If I was casting a ballot after two periods on Tuesday, there is very little Osgood or Zetterberg could have done over the previous 40 minutes to sway me.
A good game by Zetterberg, however, coupled with a win by Pittsburgh, goes a long way toward closing the gap. Osgood almost needs to stop all 35 shots directed his way over the first two periods AND a Game 6 win.
So how accurate are those claims, James?
Are you allowed to vote? Does the voting still take place before the final siren? Can you envision a scenario where Osgood loses Game 6, yet still wins the balloting before winning Game 7?
by TD O'Dell on Jun 7, 2009 4:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you’ve got it essentially right. I won’t be voting as I’m not in the building for the games, and I believe it’s just the PHWA members who are there who decide the thing.
They would wait until as late as they could in the third to collect the ballots, I imagine. Time for an electronic system of some sort.
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by James Mirtle on Jun 7, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really, they could wait until the end of the game, have a guy up there to collect the ballots, then count them up in a back room in a couple of minutes and phone it down to Bettman, no? It’s not like it doesn’t take a couple of minutes to untangle the dogpile in one corner after a Cup’s been won, anyway.
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by Doogie2K on Jun 7, 2009 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like that idea- it’s simple and easy to execute. They have to untangle the dogpile, then go through the handshake line, then give goofball interviews to reporters asking the most obvious questions in the world – plenty of opportunites for stalling. And it shouldn’t take the writers long to make up their minds, anyway. I’m sure they have their leading candidates in their heads as the game winds down, anyway – and what specific things would tilt the balance one way or another.
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by Baroque on Jun 7, 2009 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
It shouldn’t be that difficult, especially if the only voters are in attendance. The system currently in use dates back decades, when the writers might not have had the tools to cast their votes at the very last minute, but geez – didn’t Ovie win that stupid prop comedy sketch routine with voters only casting their e-ballots after he removed the hat and glasses?
Maybe the entire PWHA should be consulted via text message or that Twit device thingie. You telling me that those in far-flung locales, like James’ living room, aren’t paying attention?
Hell, they could probably set a deadline at the handshake receiving line and still get 99% of the Association’s votes. Then use the next five minutes to engrave the winner’s name on the trophy and print off a few t-shirts and baseball caps.
Until they do, however, how many votes would Osgood lose, in the event of a tied Game 7 heading into the third? If I’m voting, it’d be hard to single him out, on the chance that he might go 3-4 in the Finals.
Giguere, at the exact moment of his win, may have been 3-3 in the Finals, though, he boasted a better line than this year’s Osgood (1.62 / .945 / 5 shutouts) vs. (2.00 / .927 / 2 shutouts). Not to mention, he had no competition the likes of Malkin, Crosby, Zetterberg, Lidstrom – only Brodeur and a few lesser skaters.
Conclusion: Osgood can only win the Conn Smythe in Game 6.
by TD O'Dell on Jun 7, 2009 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After Osgood’s performance in game 6, yes I can still envision a scenario where Osgood wins the ballot in Game seven. Osgood was the main reason the Wings still even in game six after 40 minutes. A win and a good performance in game seven and Osgood is the MVP. The only other player with a shot at that point is Zetterberg and it would take a multi-goal game to put him over Osgood at that point.
by Graywolf on Jun 10, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at Malkin's Negatives too
A Conn Smythe winner should lead his team, which doesn’t always mean getting the most points. He has lost his cool several times already in the series and has drawn multiple (really stupid) penalties that have cost his team dearly. He might win it if the Pens manage to come back (unlikely), but NO WAY should he even be considered if the Wings go on as expected.
by WJE on Jun 7, 2009 5:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Indeed.
Malkin isn’t just leading the playoffs in scoring, but he’s the leader in active playoff players with penalty minutes. Malkin has taken 17 minors, 1 major, and 1 misconduct for 49 penalty minutes. If you include all eliminated players, only Chicago’s Ben Eager took more minutes with 61, though that was 8 minors, 1 major, 3 misconducts, and 1 game misconduct.
You can’t be the most valuable player of the playoffs if you’re also actively hurting your team on the regular.
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by John Fischer on Jun 7, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus the dude isnt counted on for defensive situations, and he isnt good on faceoffs. Its hilarious to me that these guys are hamstringing the team’s salary structure and are among the two top paid players in the game, but they can’t win a faceoff or be counted on to kill a penalty or hold a lead.
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by IAmJoe on Jun 7, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Red Wings win in 6, they have won because they were the better team, and thus they will win the trophy given to the best team in the playoffs, the Stanley Cup. Whether it should go to Malkin or Crosby is something I can’t decide, but the Conn Smythe trophy does go to the most valuable playoff performer, and no individual in red and white has earned that distinction. Detroit hasn’t advanced as far as they have because of any one player, but because of their TEAM. The Penguins, from 1-20, simply don’t have as good of a team as the Wings. In fact, throughout the playoffs I’m willing to bet that several teams 1-20 were better than the Pens, but Pittsburgh has come as far as they are because of Malkin and Crosby (and if they are to take this series to 7, it will also be because of those two), so one of them should be taking home the Conn Smythe, regardless of who gets the Cup.
by hawksfan21 on Jun 7, 2009 5:30 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
If the series only goes six games the odds of malkin winning are slim. but in a close seven game series he may get it even if the penguins lose. My choice is still zetterberg
by Ebscer on Jun 7, 2009 7:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
As has been stated
Zetterberg is a fine candidate, however:
If it’s me, knowing that Zetterberg won last year, and that the crowd would be happy to see a hometown boy get a concolation prize, I’d go with Malkin unless he has another poor outing on Tuesday.
The whole thing is moot anyway, because Pittsburgh will send it to Game 7. Until five more periods have been played, it’s awfully difficult to predict voter intentions. Remember when Hillary was supposed to lose the election to Giuliani?
by TD O'Dell on Jun 7, 2009 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll be sorely disappointed if the trophy goes to Osgood. I could live with Zetterberg, I wouldn’t argue with Franzen at all, but Osgood’s been shown repeatedly to be a product of his team. He’s like the bizarro Bert Blyleven: Bly would probably be in the HOF if he hadn’t played on such terrible teams through most of his career, and Ozzy will probably get into the HOF because he spent so much time with the Wings.
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by JustinM on Jun 8, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Fine. I agree with you on the Hall of Fame. That has no relevance at all to whether or not he deserves the Conn Smythe this year. This year, no one has really stood out. Malkin is putting up points, but has negative value defensively. Crosby has put up a lot of points, but the Red Wings have come close to shutting him down. Zetterberg has a bunch of points, and is clearly at the opposite end of the spectrum of defensive value than Malkin; I think he’d be a good choice, though it isn’t any sort of walk over. Franzen was huge early in the playoffs, but hasn’t done much lately. Cleary might be my second choice, because he’s been huge at some key times.
Chris Osgood saved the Wings’ on several occasions this year, particularly in the Anaheim and Chicago series. He’s played extremely well, beyond just tending net behind a good team. I don’t think it would be a travesty if someone else wins it (though I object to a Malkin pick since it means that people are clearly only valuing offense), but Osgood is my first choice.
by J. Michael Neal on Jun 8, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
… Um, are you going to provide any facts in there, or are you just going to make a statement and not back it up at all?
Osgood is not a product of the Red Wings. Not even close. He (unlike most great goalies) has actually played and did reasonably well on bad teams like the Islanders and the Blues, taking both to the playoffs. He’s not one of the greatest, but he is certainly great, and his playoff stats bear that out. All of his stats are far above average for his era (Someone compared his stats vs. Fuhr’s stats to the averages of their respective eras, and Osgood’s were still superior). He’s let in a few softies, but so has every great goalie. Anyone remember the “Statue of Liberty” play?
People who claim that Osgood is a product of the system ignore that every goalie in some way is dependent on their system. That Osgood has been reasonably successful outside of their system (He still hasn’t had a losing season) and his playoff stats are impeccably good. If we are going to make this argument, why don’t we start dissing just about every other goalie that has stuck it out with a good team?
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by Justice and Rule on Jun 8, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If an average goalie plays enough times in the playoffs, sooner or later he’ll have a great postseason. Are you saying he doesn’t deserve credit for that great run? Isn’t that like saying Malkin doesn’t deserve credit for his great playoffs, because he’s certainly averaging more points per game than he will over his career?
by RyanV on Jun 8, 2009 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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