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How hard is it to win the Stanley Cup?

The best posts always start with a question or questions that I don't know the answer to, and this one began with a few doozies: How many players win the Stanley Cup anyway? Has that number changed, on a percentage basis, over time? And what are the chances that a player like Marian Hossa, 30 years old and in the prime of his career, gets shut out?

It took me a couple days to cobble this together, with some major assistance for the raw data from stats maestro Gabe Desjardins, but I've finally got an answer: Of the 6,400-some players to have played in the NHL in the league's 90-plus year history, 14 per cent won at least one Stanley Cup championship in their career.

It adds up to 917 players, with Mr. Hossa and a few others potentially joining the club later tonight.

Those are the big picture numbers, and they tell us only a little of the story. Part of the problem is that they include about 200 players who were born before World War I, in an era when close to 40 per cent of the players in the league would, at some point, win a Cup.

What I started with was a look at all NHL players by birth year, along with a figure indicating how many players born in that particular year won a championship at some point in their career. Breaking these birthdates down into five-year segments, beginning with players born between 1900 and 1904, here's a graphical representation of the percentage of players per segment that won a Cup in their career:

Cup-graph1_medium

Keep in mind that these dates are based on birth years, meaning that if you're looking for landmark years, start with 1950, which would have been about the first generation of players to play exclusively in a post-Original Six league. Prior to that point, with only six teams, a ton of NHLers were able to at some point win a championship in large part due to just how small the league was.

As you can see, the percentage of players who won Cups in the era immediately after expansion did dip to a low point (1950-59 birthdates), but there's a big-time recovery in the early '60s generation that included the likes of Wayne Gretzky (1961), Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman (both 1965) and other similarly aged players who have all since left the league (except Chris Chelios).

Here's a close up, year-by-year breakdown of the percentages from 1950 onwards:

Cup-graph2_medium

The first thing to note is that we can pretty much ignore players from 1979 onward, as they are all 30 or under and may still be able to win a Cup. It's very tough to project exactly where the 30-team generation of players will fall in at this point.

Going back on the chart to its peak, however, in 1964, we see that an incredible 23 per cent of players born in that year wound up winning a championship in their career — despite the fact the league ballooned from 12 to 21 teams between 1970 and 1979.

Why the Cup boom around '64?

Star-divide

  1. These players entered the league around 1983-84, near the end of the dynasty era, and were in their prime by 1989. Between that season, when the Flames won, and the 1999 playoffs, when the Stars did, nine different teams took home the Cup in 11 seasons. For a league that had previously had one team (the Canadiens) win 15 Cups in a 24-year span, this was a record level of parity.

  2. Players born in and around 1964 would have been the first beneficiaries of more liberalized free agency. Bob Goodenow came to power at the NHLPA in 1992, when these players were about 28 years old, and ushered in an unprecedented era of veterans signing big-ticket contracts with well moneyed teams (not to mention all the rental players changing teams at the trade deadline). Many of those clubs won, and the revolving rosters did wonders for players attempting to get their names on Lord Stanley's Mug.

There's another steep jump in there nine years later, for players born in 1973, and this group would have spent its entire NHL existence under the leadership of a stronger union (i.e. no Eagleson). It's also likely that many players toward the end of their careers — as these players are now at around age 36 — would attempt to relocate to win a Cup, something that would skew the results.

So, how hard is it to win the Stanley Cup? Well, only somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent of players born in the last 60 years have managed to do so — and that could easily be a number that trends downward in a league with 30 teams and franchise players getting locked up on long-term deals. 

Only about 90 or so of the players currently in the NHL are likely to win a championship in their careers, a relatively exclusive club Hossa could join tonight.

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Great article James – really interesting stuff, articles like this are why I love this site

  I’m surprised that the percentage is that low (not sure why but I figured it would be about 20% – mostly because I tend to think about the numbers based on players who had a “full career” – it’d be intersting to see what the percentage is for players who play 5 or 10 years and see what the percentage is (what is the average length of an nhl career?)). Also you say only about 90 players playing right now will win a cup — is that including players who have already won? (and how many current players have won one?).

by rwerries on Jun 9, 2009 7:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just a fantastic post, James. Your analysis is as important as the numbers themselves. rwerries has a good point, though: can you restrict your population to players with a minimum of, say, 200 NHL games played?

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Jun 9, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice work, James. It was a great idea on your end and it’s cool to see the data interpreted like this…

And of course you get requests for even more data! If only I didn’t have a day job – I should put a Paypal donation button on my site…

by Hawerchuk on Jun 9, 2009 8:54 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I felt a little guilty about that one…

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Jun 9, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s a good idea, but I think these numbers essentially tell us the same thing. I only imagine that the numbers would be skewed up a couple percentage points if we dropped the fringe players (some of whom also win Cups).

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jun 9, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree with the others; great post, James.

Here’s hoping Hossa joins the club tonight.

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by eyebleaf on Jun 9, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Between 10-15%

That should make a few guys feel better about themselves. I’m looking at you Dionne, Gartner, Perreault, Stastny, Lafontaine, Sittler, Salming, Ratelle and Hawerchuk (Dale, not Gabe).

by TD O'Dell on Jun 9, 2009 10:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

On the flip side, it makes guys who’ve won several times seem crazy. I wonder what the statistics are on multiple winners. There can only be a handful in the league right now who have three or more. Four Red Wings could earn their fifth tonight, Maltby, Holmstrom, Draper, and Lidstrom if my memory serves me right.

by hallock on Jun 9, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Along with Roenick and T. Esposito.

by wlittle on Jun 9, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

same thing?

It’s also sad for me that Dale Hawerchuk never won a cup…

by Hawerchuk on Jun 9, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brian Propp

Incidentally, Propp went to the finals five times and never won…

by Hawerchuk on Jun 9, 2009 10:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully general knowledge will catch up to this at some point and people will stop holding it against players who’ve never won one. No matter how good you are, the deck is stacked against you nowadays.

It may seem like with their two early finals appearances that Crosby and Malkin are ticketed to get a few, but the truth is their chances of winning at least one probably fall well below 50% if Detroit finishes them off.

by Costa24 on Jun 9, 2009 11:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting stuff. A followup question that would be interesting to know:

1) With regards to the question about what the chances are (or were, given that, right now, they are much, much better) of Hossa to win a Cup, it would be interesting to see the conditional probability of ever winning a Cup given that you haven’t won one by the age of 30. Obviously, it might go down, since you have half or fewer years in which to get that ring. On the other hand, it would be interesting to see what the effects of switching teams in order to increase the odds are, like for Raymond Bourque.

by J. Michael Neal on Jun 9, 2009 12:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I actually think the chances may go up slightly, Ray Bourque also came to my mind, as did Dallas Drake.

by hallock on Jun 9, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt that they really go up. Considering that most of the players who are 30 years old have very few years left in the league, I’d guess that the odds go down a lot. With Bourque and Drake, we are really asking a different question, since they kept playing as long as they did: What is the conditional probability that a player will win a Cup, given that they have not won one by the age of 30, and given that they will play at least eight more seasons, and given that they will still be playing well enough in their late thirties that a contending team will want to sign them. That’s a very different conditional probability, and illustrates the difficulty of determining prior probabilities after the fact.

by J. Michael Neal on Jun 9, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Free agency comes into play when players are around age 30, so more players would have the option of choosing strong teams to play for. I imagine the fact a lot of players are stuck on non-contending teams hurts youngsters’ chances of winning.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jun 9, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great work, fascinating. So much work that went into this – much appreciated.

by Stephen Pepper on Jun 12, 2009 2:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs


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