Revisiting Khabibulin's contract

by James Mirtle on Jul 23, 2009 10:54 AM CDT Comment 26 comments

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

"Welcome to the club."

With Marty Biron's bargain of a contract now in the books, the Oilogosphere's back on the topic of Nikolai Khabibulin's contract. And you can imagine what the coverage reads like:

No free agent goaltender, other than Nikolai Khabibulin, received over $2.5-million dollars per season. No free agent goaltender, other than Nikolai Khabibulin, received more than two years of term. Regardless of his reasoning, I don't think there's an argument to be made that Steve Tambellini didn't overpay for his goaltender, in both years and dollars.

— Jonathan Willis

The Islanders are now paying $3.9MM for a goalie tandem of Dwayne Roloson and Biron (I think Rick DiPietro is likely gone for the year). It’s a tandem that looks a hell of a lot better to me than the Oilers $4.45MM Khabibulin/JDD tandem.

— Tyler Dellow

The Oilers' backup situation is a troubling part of all this, as Khabibulin hasn't started more than 57 games since 2002-03 and is on the downswing at 36. Postlockout, he's averaged only 49 starts a season, meaning Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is going to see significant time in goal — even in the best-case scenario.

And he hasn't exactly set the world on fire in the minors.

On the whole, Khabibulin had a decent season last year. No one's going to sniff at a .919 save percentage, even if it's only in 40 games, but it's worth noting that the majority of his strong play was in the first two thirds of the season. Going from a 7-3 loss to the Canucks in early February on, and including his poor showing in the postseason, Khabibulin had a 2.65 goals-against average and .902 save percentage in his last 30 appearances. In 27 appearances before that, he had a 2.35 GAA and .925 save percentage.

His record, meanwhile, has benefited from terrific goal support. Only four other goaltenders who played 40 games last season had more even strength goal support than Khabibulin (2.72): Conklin, Kiprusoff, Fleury and Osgood.

And he's battled groin issues every season postlockout.

Khabibulin's probably going to step in and be a near league average save percentage goaltender, but as Willis highlights over at Copper & Blue, there were plenty of options in free agency that could have offered similar at a smaller price. As it is, the Oilers have gambled when they didn't have to.

Looking at the deal Biron signed and who he signed with, it really makes you wonder: Where would Khabibulin have ended up had the Oilers went another direction? And what would his contract look like?

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Comments

You’d think that GMs would know the basics of supply-and-demand economics.

"Without good hard work, it is impossible to reach the pinnacle of success." - Anatoli Tarasov

by PRC on Jul 23, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Most of them are just ex-hockey players without a ton of education. Like Tom Benjamin said about Tallon, there is little in their resumes that suggest they can run a multi-million dollar business outside of their hockey knowledge.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Jul 23, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize that, but still… It’s not that hard.

"Without good hard work, it is impossible to reach the pinnacle of success." - Anatoli Tarasov

by PRC on Jul 23, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa…

Not that hard?!? To run a hockey team… To manage the cap… To negotiate contracts… To build/manage an organisation… And to do so with tremendous (in some markets) fan pressure…

Saskhab is right on: the job requires a smart person, with tons of business savvy. Ex players do not have that.

by Gusinabox on Jul 23, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not suggesting the position of GM is supposed to be easy. I was referring to the notion of understanding if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Clearly the Oilers didn’t have a feel for the market.

"Without good hard work, it is impossible to reach the pinnacle of success." - Anatoli Tarasov

by PRC on Jul 23, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

…and here’s a look at next year’s free agent market: http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/7/23/960644/the-free-agent-class-of-2010

"Without good hard work, it is impossible to reach the pinnacle of success." - Anatoli Tarasov

by PRC on Jul 23, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not so sure what prompted the Khabibulin signing.

Was it desperation on the Oilers part? .
A good sales job on Khabibulin’s agent’s part?
Do they Oilers have to overpay to bring anybody to their team?

Probably a bit of those three.

But I’m certain that Oilers fans would not have accepted waiting until July 22nd to have a starting goalie signed. And I’m also convinced that if Tambellini had walked in with Biron as his prize starting goalie, he would have gotten blasted even more by the Oilogosphere.

by Gusinabox on Jul 23, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, Nik was a $6.5m goalie last year, so maybe Tambellini figured he wasn’t starting off too high. In the past, $3.5m has been pretty standard for a starting goalie. The term was curious given his age, but based on previous years, it wasn’t really a huge overpayment for a standard starting goalie.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Jul 23, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, I don’t think it’s fair to fault Tambellini for that signing.

He needs a backup, and Gerber would have been nice at $700,000. But I guess Russia is a better destination than Edmonton. ;)

by Gusinabox on Jul 23, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was when it comes to term. Why give a 36-year-old goalie with groin problems a four-year deal, of any size?

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 23, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m also convinced that if Tambellini had walked in with Biron as his prize starting goalie, he would have gotten blasted even more

It looks to me like that’s it right there. Tambellini didn’t want fiscal management in his goaltender acquisition; he wanted the best goalie available. The consensus was that Khabibulin was that guy, and Tambellini paid what was necessary to get him.

I never expected Biron to get as low as $1.4M. Now that it’s clear the Oilers could have had Biron and Gerber (Grbrsrkr!) for less than Khabibulin – better goaltending for less money – this looks like a pretty big mistake.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Jul 23, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tambellini didn’t want fiscal management in his goaltender acquisition; he wanted the best goalie available. The consensus was that Khabibulin was that guy, and Tambellini paid what was necessary to get him.

Except that Khabibulin said in a press conference shortly after signing that Edmonton was the only team to offer anything other than a short-term deal.

My issue isn’t so much with the selection of Khabibulin; it was the price paid to grab him.

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 23, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never expected Biron to get as low as $1.4M. Now that it’s clear the Oilers could have had Biron and Gerber (Grbrsrkr!) for less than Khabibulin – better goaltending for less money – this looks like a pretty big mistake.

This operates under the assumptions that (a) those two goalies would’ve signed for those respective rates under any circumstance under the one that exists now (i.e. all starter and most backup jobs already sewn up), and (b) that they would sign for those rates in Edmonton. There is no evidence for either.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Jul 23, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think there’s at least enough evidence to make it plausible that Biron would have signed in Edmonton for $2M and Gerber for $1M.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Jul 23, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t. Edmonton has a history of either overpaying players to come or not signing players at all because it’s an unattractive environment for whatever reason (management, success, weather, travel, whatever), and even the players that do resign all seem to be at slightly inflated rates.

More to the point, what makes you think that Biron would’ve signed anywhere for $2M if he wasn’t completely desperate? Wasn’t he supposed to be seeking a number around $5M, thus why Philly let him walk?

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Jul 24, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Oilers have had to overpay to attract players. Hossa turned down a ton of money last year from Edmonton.

by skatehack on Jul 23, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Much like the Islanders had to overpay to attract goaltenders… oh, right.

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 23, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure what your mean as you indicated you had a problem with the price for Habby. That sounds like overpaying. Do you know what kind of term the Oilers offered Roloson?

As for Biron, it’s musical chairs at this point; grab an NHL job or go play in the KHL. A lot of guys are going to be facing that.

by skatehack on Jul 23, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oilers would only offer Roloson a one-year deal so he walked.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 23, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured as much. I suspect that the Islanders were the only team offering 2 years. So in that sense, one could certainly argue that they overpaid as well.

by skatehack on Jul 23, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but they overpaid by a smaller dollar amount, by a much smaller term, and did so on a team with plenty of cap room and absolutely no expectations or important new contracts to be signed during the duration of the overpaid goaltender’s contract.

If I paid 50 dollars for a hamburger, and then you paid 500 dollars for 4 hamburgers, we’re both overpaying, but one of our errors is a whole lot more grievous than the other.

http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.

by IAmJoe on Jul 23, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mean the Oilers chose to overpay. They didn’t have to.

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 24, 2009 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Khabby's Deal

Call it subsidizing interest in playing in Edmonton…

To think the Oilers can pay market rate and get their man is quite an assumption.

"It's a great day for hockey" - BBJ

by jealous broadcaster on Jul 23, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it as big an assumption as thinking the Islanders can pay market rate and get their man?

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 23, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A little defensive, are we?

Kevin Lowe’s “big game hunting” exploits are well known, and evidently pulling Tambellini’s strings hasn’t helped much either, if the Heatley saga is any indication.

by Resolute on Jul 23, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs