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2009 NHL Free Agency: Which teams have cash to burn?

So, two days into the market, about $120-million in contracts for next season handed out (about half of which went to 10 players) and by my count another $150-million to go. Some teams, like the Bruins and Flyers, are essentially spent out, but there are quite a few clubs with money to burn.

With a big assist to capgeek.com (the net's newest and most excellent salary resource) and some guesstimating as to teams' budgets for 2009-10, here's my ranking of which teams have the most to spend in the coming days (including on restricted free agents):

Team   Payroll Cap space Signed Openings Est. budget Cash to burn
1 NYR $43.327 $13.473 11 11 $56.800 $13.473
2 NJD $43.658 $13.142 14 8 $53.800 $10.142
3 NYI $35.435 $21.365 18 4 $45.000 $9.565
4 VAN $48.118 $8.682 18 4 $56.800 $8.682
5 MTL $48.836 $7.964 17 5 $56.800 $7.964
6 DAL $44.109 $12.691 19 3 $50.800 $6.691
7 NAS $38.976 $17.824 16 6 $45.000 $6.024
8 PHO $39.555 $17.245 19 3 $44.800 $5.245
9 FLA $49.420 $7.380 18 4 $54.500 $5.080
10 LAK $46.951 $9.849 20 2 $51.800 $4.849
11 ATL $41.216 $15.584 16 6 $46.000 $4.784
12 PIT $52.043 $4.757 18 4 $56.800 $4.757
13 COL $48.446 $8.354 17 5 $53.000 $4.554
14 CHI $52.314 $4.486 19 3 $56.800 $4.486
15 EDM $52.337 $4.463 21 1 $56.800 $4.463
16 MIN $50.550 $6.250 19 3 $55.000 $4.450
17 WAS $52.625 $4.175 19 3 $56.800 $4.175
18 TOR $52.662 $4.138 22 0 $56.800 $4.138
19 CLB $46.742 $10.058 21 1 $50.800 $4.058
20 STL $50.811 $5.989 22 0 $54.500 $3.689
21 DET $53.471 $3.329 19 3 $56.800 $3.329
22 CGY $53.747 $3.053 19 3 $56.800 $3.053
23 OTT $53.853 $2.947 22 0 $56.800 $2.947
24 CAR $48.142 $8.658 17 5 $51.000 $2.858
25 BUF $48.089 $8.711 16 6 $50.800 $2.711
26 SAN $54.183 $2.617 18 4 $56.800 $2.617
27 TBL $47.323 $9.477 17 5 $49.800 $2.477
28 PHI $54.638 $2.162 19 3 $56.800 $2.162
29 ANA $45.677 $11.123 19 3 $47.800 $2.123
30 BOS $54.900 $1.900 20 2 $56.800 $1.900
AVG $48.405 $8.395 18.3 3.7 $53.320 $4.915
TOT $1,500.6 $260.2 $568 $114 $1,652.9 $147.4

I've estimated the budgets above by looking at last year's spending, reading media reports and using some common sense reasoning as to where teams are financially. These may be off by a couple million, which I'll let everyone debate in the comments. (Some teams like the Rangers have a ton of RFAs to sign, so keep that in mind when you look at their hefty "to burn" figure.)

The average NHL club has between three and four free agents to lock up still and about $5-million to do so, so we're likely looking at a lot of smaller moves. None of the players left as UFAs should expect huge paydays, however, as we'll get down to fighting for table scraps rather quickly.

Star-divide

For the real hockey business geeks in the audience: Based on the fact teams have spent $1.5-billion on salaries so far and potentially flat (or declining) revenues, I estimate that no more contracts can be signed without players having to pay out into escrow this season. That's obviously not going to happen, so if there is a revenue crunch — even a modest one — NHLers could be looking at forking out big time if salaries rise above the $1.65-billion figure I've forecasted.

And that's before we get into long-term injury exemptions and the like which are sure to push those salary figures even higher.

Escrow is being reported at 15.9 per cent for last season, and based on spending so far and projecting forward, I believe it will be rising to 20 per cent or more for 2009-10. Half the league appears on course to spend right to the $56.8-million salary cap this season, and the NHL would need revenues to jump to about 15 per cent to $3-billion to sustain the sort of payouts we're seeing without any escrow hit.

Marian Gaborik may have gotten a deal for $7.5-million a season this summer, but about $1.5-million of that is funny money which really isn't his. And the real cap, in terms of real dollars, is actually only about $45-million.

Larry Brooks reported that a lot of players voted against the cap escalator due to the hefty escrow hit this season, and you wonder if they'll do the same come next summer when the situation is even worse. There's now a situation where players on long-term deals are going to be at odds with pending free agents, as those locked up could watch their piece of the pie shrink as escrow rises.

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Interesting info. I figured, even with LA signing Scuderi, they’d have a lot more cap space.

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Jul 3, 2009 6:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Despite Gainey saving them by taking Gomez at $43 million the Rangers still only have half a team. Can anyone explain to me how Sather still has a job?

A Nation of Masochists TRUCULENCE isn't just a word, it's a way of life.

by furcifer on Jul 3, 2009 8:23 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He and Gretzky have ridiculous contracts that essentially say that they have their jobs so long as they want them; they will not be fired. I heard about it on a hockey podcast, but I can’t recall which one right now. I will try to listen to all of them and tell you, but right now my mind is thinking it’s from an older Puck Podcast.

by russellguldin on Jul 3, 2009 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One anchor for another!

1) Agreed! Gainey does Slats a favour by taking on the Gomez salary cap anchor, then he turns around and placees another (Gaborik) even larger anchor around his team’s neck!

I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on Jul 3, 2009 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No one is more anti-Sather than I am, but its far to early to call Gaborik’s contract an “anchor”. Gaborik has way more superstar potential than Gomez ever had. And considering the cap hit is basically the same ($150,000 per year, for the same length), its likely a wash.

The reality is, the market for superstars right now is 6.5 million give or take, and the only way to minimize that hit is to spread the term over a really long-time. There are only 10 teams without some one on their roster with a 6.5 hit on their books – Anaheim, Boston, Chicago (only because of length of Hossa’s deal), Columbus (Nash will be there soon), Edmonton, Florida, Minnesota, Islanders, St. Louis, Toronto.

Sather’s real problem isnt paying a 1st line superstar 1st line superstar money. Its paying 2nd/3rd liners (Drury) and depth defensemen (Redden, Rosival) 1st line superstar money.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/
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by poploser on Jul 3, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gomez-vsGaborik

1) Agreed that you are consistent in your anti-Sather stance. We also agree that Gaborik could be classified as a 1st line forward.
2) We would NOT classify him in the ‘super star status. In 8 NHL seasons he has never scored more than 83 points(once) and scored 40+ only once in that time. Was it because of Lemaire and his style? Time will tell.
3) In addition his fragility is also an issue the rangers will fast become familiar. It will be interesting to see who scores more points this season, Gomez or Gaborik. Neither deserve ’super star’ money in our opinion.

I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on Jul 3, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

2) We would NOT classify him in the ‘super star status. In 8 NHL seasons he has never scored more than 83 points(once) and scored 40+ only once in that time. Was it because of Lemaire and his style? Time will tell.

I have to disagree here. I picked 8 names and counted up the number of games played and goals scored since the lockout, regular season plus playoffs. In terms of post-lockout goals-per-game, Gaborik ranks 3rd (unless you can think of some candidate I’m excluding).

Player – GP – G – GPG

1. Ovechkin – 345 – 234 – .678
2. Kovalchuk – 322 – 190 – .590
3. Gaborik – 218 – 126 – 0.578
4. Heatley – 351 – 190 – 0.541
5. Hossa – 355 – 169 – 0.476
6. Nash – 291 – 137 – 0.471
7. Selanne – 309 – 144 – 0.466
8. Vanek – 344 – 152 – 0.442

Yes, Gaborik’s games-played is miniscule compared to the others, but there’s no doubt that when he plays, even with Minnesota’s defensive reputation, he’s scored goals post-lockout like few others. I’m pretty sure he’s one of four or so players in the league averaging more than half-a-goal per game. That’s super star status in my books.

That said, I like Hossa’s contract better. And elite or not, Gabby is an injury risk until he shows otherwise.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jul 3, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1) Good numbers crunching there Earl! The number that really sticks out though is the games played! That has to be a cause of concern to Ranger fans. One season is bad luck, over 2 awful fortune. Over 4 + seasons its a trend.
2) If he scores at the .58 goals/game rate over 82 games(48 goals) it could be argued he is worth the money. If he scores at that rate and plays under 65 games, he is not.

I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on Jul 3, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, I’m just surprised Teemu’s still on that list after all these years. I know he’s still been a sniper since the lockout, but I wouldn’t have thought he was in the top 7. Good for him.

by Afino on Jul 3, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s not really “top seven”, though it might be. I didn’t check anybody besides those names. Still, he’s got Vanek beat.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jul 3, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree Gaborik is a superstar talent with Euro league level of games played; his scoring rate has always showed that. I wouldn’t have done it with that injury history, but if he can somehow stay healthy, the Rangers have themselves a prize. He looked great at the end of last season.

Gaborik’s last hip surgery was supposedly going to prevent future groin injuries. Seems like everything hinges on that.

Hey, all the Islanders’ hip surgeries turned out just fine…

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Jul 3, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chicago (only because of length of Hossa’s deal)

I’m too lazy to look it up, but what’s Brian Campbell’s cap number?

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jul 3, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

$7.15-million or thereabouts.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 3, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The advantage to signing Gaborik is the amount of cap relief you will get when he spends half the season on LTIR.

by Resolute on Jul 3, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a heads up

You have all teams listed with only 22 roster spots.

by TD O'Dell on Jul 3, 2009 9:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What’s the issue there? 13 forwards, seven defencemen and two goaltenders.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 3, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most carry 23, don’t they?

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Jul 3, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, teams do not always put three guys in the press box, especially when their salaries count against the cap. Many run with 20, 21 or 22.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 3, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man, the Ducks want the 5th-lowest budget league-wide? Not sure if that’s fully accurate, but nevertheless quite a far cry from last year’s ceiling-scraping habits, that’s for sure.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Jul 3, 2009 10:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Anaheim has an cash budget of $50 million. I’m not sure if James knows that and is compensating for Niedermayer’s bonuses or anything because I’m not looking it up. Hey, this job is pretty easy!

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Jul 3, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duhatschek reported last week that they dealt Pronger because they’re on a $46-million budget. Samueli’s ownership issues may really squeeze them.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 3, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most of Buffalo’s 2.7 to burn will be Stafford’s RFA deal.

by Afino on Jul 3, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah, and/or Sekera. They’d be lucky to get them both under contract for less than 5 million combined. Man, it sure would be nice if they could dump the contracts of Hecht or Tallinder.

by Make a play Whitner on Jul 3, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stafford’s contract scares me because of the deal Clowe just got.

I bet they could get Sekera for just over $1 million per – something like Pominville right after the lockout, 3 years, $4 million.

by Afino on Jul 3, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Clowe’s deal and a number of other ones for RFAs roughly in the same statistical range as him…yeah, definitely.

Can’t see Sekera getting signed that cheap…his stats aren’t very impressive, but he logged a lot of ice time. And young d-men around the league have been signing way, way higher than 1 million per if they’re NHL regulars.

That Goligoski guy in Pitt didn’t even play for the Pens the entire season, and he got well over a million per.

by Make a play Whitner on Jul 3, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A third of Jersey's cash will go to Zajac.

I think they are going to be real careful with the rest of it, due to the fact that the cap is coming down and they have to resign Parise and Martin next year. We’re going to have a young team this year, but a team I’m kind of excited to see. Glad we may finally get to see guys like Bergfors and Pelley show what they have.

by Mandmeisterx on Jul 3, 2009 11:14 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thrashers Probably Done Spending

New contracts for Lehtonen and Colby Armstrong are going to eat up the rest of their budget.

by The Falconer on Jul 3, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess we understand why Darcy wants to trade instead of FA hunt…

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by TheTick on Jul 3, 2009 1:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Could somebody clue me in on RFA status?

When would you expect to find out what RFAs are doing? I know that offer sheets went out early this week, but when would you expect signing to happen?

http://accordingtwomey.blogspot.com

by hawksfan21 on Jul 3, 2009 3:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It can take all summer sometimes. And some players are arbitration eligible and go through that process later this month. Players have to file for arbitration by this weekend, I think.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 3, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

re: San Jose Sharks

I crunched the numbers a bit early yesterday, and by my count San Jose has essentially no money left to sign four forwards (one of those being a healthy scratch). That’s including Jamie McGinn being brought up and Thomas Greiss serving in a backup role.

It’s not going to be a fire sale in San Jose persay, but you have to figure at the very least Cheechoo, Lukowich, and one of Ehrhoff/Michalek are going to be moved in order to get under the cap.

Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution

by Mr. Plank on Jul 3, 2009 5:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, that would take Dany out of the running. Guess there are fewer and fewer places for him to land. Edmonton or Ottawa….hmmmm

by hockeycountry on Jul 3, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

How do contracts with performance bonuses

count against the cap? I noticed Tyler Bozak is listed with the Leafs at 3.75M if he hits his bonuses. Would TO management just assume that they’ll have that much less to spend on other FAs? On nhlnumbers.com, just to provide a contrast, he’s yet to be listed.

by Pat Verbeek on Jul 3, 2009 7:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Dallas isn't going to spend 50 m

unless Beauchimen agrees to terms and Gustavsson signs too. Hicks doesn’t have the money nor does he need to spend it now. They’re a team that should have cap space at trade deadline.

by Hull Fan on Jul 4, 2009 4:08 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You’re right. I thought they were going to bring in another dman in the $3-million range and get a decent backup, so they shouldn’t be far off. Probably just under $50-million.

Colorado’s another team that’s definitely going to spend less than what I’ve projected now that they’ve dumped Smyth.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 4, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs


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