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Top teams silent in free agency

Former Detroit Red Wings right wing Mikael Samuelsson.

More photos » Mark Avery - AP

Former Detroit Red Wings right wing Mikael Samuelsson.

"The cap number just didn't work out. It's not a surprise. Our team last year was as deep a one as we'll ever field; we had the stars aligned for us. It was a one-year window. Now it's about drafting and developing."

— Red Wings GM Ken Holland

The salary cap's created some issues for the Red Wings these days, and Detroit's had to watch more significant free agents walk than anyone thus far. Three signed with division rivals, while a fourth in Mikael Samuelsson stayed in the conference with another top team.

This hasn't been a problem confined to the Red Wings, however, as if you look at what all of last year's division winners have done in free agency so far, there's been an awful lot more players in the outbox than coming in:

West UFAs signed UFAs lost
1. San Jose Huskins Moen, Grier, Lemieux,  Roenick, Semenov
2. Detroit Hossa, Samuelsson, Conklin, Kopecky, Chelios, McCarty
3. Vancouver Samuelsson Ohlund, Sundin, Pyatt, Labarbera, Sanford, Davison, Vaananen
East
1. Boston Recchi, Begin Axelsson, Fernandez, Yelle, Hnidy, Montador
2. Washington Knuble Fedorov, Kozlov, Johnson, Brashear
3. New Jersey Gionta, Madden, Shanahan, Havelid, Weekes, Clemmensen, Holik, Rupp

There are two basic ways to look at this. Either, (a) these teams are strong enough that they can afford to lose this many bodies and replace from within, or (b) this is the effect the salary cap has on the top teams'  ability to compete for UFAs. Good teams generally have good, young players who are about to be paid more than they currently are, and that creates a squeeze in the off-season.

Another factor that comes into play is the fact we're only four days into free agency, and some of the best bargains haven't yet found a home. It's certainly plausible that the Canucks and Devils add another key body, although the majority of these clubs are right up against the cap despite doing very, very little in free agency.

Some of the losses are obviously more significant than others, but what they all contribute to is a weakening of teams' depth and the further spreading out of talent. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, but it will make it difficult for the same teams to continue to win, year after year.

My guess is this trend contributes to a bit of a changing of the guard in 2009-10, with a few of these teams taking a sizable step back.

Poll
How many of these six teams will win their division again next season?
None
13 votes
1
20 votes
2
107 votes
3
169 votes
4
137 votes
5
18 votes
6
14 votes

478 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments  |  Add comment |

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Comments

Display:

I've got three

San Jose, Detroit, Washington.

by Afino on Jul 4, 2009 7:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh come on

If you’re going to list Sanford, Vaananen and Krog as “losses” for the Canucks at least list Rome and Glass as “gains”. Career minor leaguers shouldn’t count in this sort of analysis.

by yugret on Jul 4, 2009 9:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn’t worry so much about Washington’s losses. They’ve replaced Kozlov with Knuble, and Varlamov replaces Johnson (or Theodore if they can move him, which probably isn’t happening). Brashear’ll probably get replaced by someone up from Hershey, be it Bourque or Jay Beagle or someone else. The only one they need to worry about is replacing Fedorov, and they might not do that right away because of cap space issues.

"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri

by gotsparkly on Jul 4, 2009 11:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I concur.. Washington is in a very good spot to start this next season!

Strange as it sounds, we do own TVs in Russia - Simeon Varlamov

by JustJeff on Jul 4, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted four :
     Detroit, Boston, San Jose, and Washington…

Strange as it sounds, we do own TVs in Russia - Simeon Varlamov

by JustJeff on Jul 4, 2009 11:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...

Couldn’t you consider the “free agency” period to be anything from last July (in terms of signing players to extensions) through today, if you wanted to?

Some of these teams have locked up key members of their core (Zetterberg, Sedins, Franzen, Blake, Oduya, Tim Thomas) before they even had a chance to test the market.

But in this day and age, I would consider a lack of activity from July 1st-July 5th to be more indicative of a well-run franchise than a red flag.

Anyway, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Boston doesn’t win the NE by 10-15 points next year. Washington and San Jose should win theirs too, but I’m a little less certain. Vancouver, Detroit, and NJ- total tossup as far as I’m concerned.

by Make a play Whitner on Jul 5, 2009 12:03 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ken Holland made the same comment – he mentioned that the team made their free agent moves when they resigned Zetterberg and Franzen before they even tested the market.

Boston and Washington are the most likely, I think, and San Jose (just because they are a great regular season team and have been for years). Probably Detroit is next likely, and I think Vancouver and New Jersey are the least likely to reapeat.

So I guess I vote 3.5 repeat winners. :-)

"A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with." -- Tennessee Williams

by Baroque on Jul 5, 2009 6:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Locking up players that were on the team already, and generally for a lot more than they played for last year, doesn’t really contribute to the team improving, does it?

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 5, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I figure three… Detroit, Boston and Vancouver (although they’ll be in a dog fight with Calgary all season for top spot)

San Jose maybe… But the pacific division looks like it might be tougher than it ever has been…

by Art_M on Jul 5, 2009 1:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I’ve got SJ, DC, Detroit and Boston.

However, Anaheim is going to be a force, we could easily see Chicago take that spot and Carolina looks good enough to make the Caps really earn it. I don’t see anyone in the NW challenging Boston.

Vancouver barely got it last year so that’s easily up for grabs. Unless NJ gets some serious upgrades they are in trouble. With the Rangers making some moves, Philly getting Pronger and Pitt finding their game late last season-NJ looks like an easy pick for 3rd maybe even 4th.

" 60 percent of the time...it works everytime"

by shwedy on Jul 5, 2009 1:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A table with the bottom three might be interesting to see

Off the top of my head
Tampa: Ohlund
Atlanta: Antropov
Islanders: ?
Colorado: ?
Phoenix: ?

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Jul 5, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Islanders: Tavares
Colorado: Smyth
Phoenix: Aucoin is their top signing so far. Rumours have Tanguay going there as well.

"Life is just a place where we spend time between games. Hockey is where we live, where we can best meet and overcome pain and wrong and death." - Fred Shero

by Karina on Jul 5, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs


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