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Evaluating the remaining UFAs: Forwards Edition

By my count, there are really only about 60 or 70 unrestricted free agents worth looking at, especially if you limit your list to players who played at least 30 games last season and in at least 10 minutes a game. With an assist to Behind The Net and some of Gabe Desjardins's nifty advanced metrics, what follows is an evaluation of who's left, and how they can help a team.

First, a look at 42 UFA forwards and how they stacked up at even strength last year. The key figures to know here are QCMP, which measures quality of competition players face (difficult or easy minutes), and GF/60 and GA/60, which are the scoring rates, for and against, when certain players are on the ice.

I've ranked players according to how they fared in all three stats (click the title of this post to open in a full window to read every column if some are obscured in your browser):


NAME POS TM GP TOI QCMP Pt/60 GF/60 GA/60 Diff
1 MIRO SATAN RW PIT 65 12.53 0.03 1.69 2.72 1.99 0.73
2 ROBERT LANG C  MTL 50 11.00 0.05 1.85 2.94 2.62 0.32
3 M. MALHOTRA C  CBJ 77 13.51 0.03 1.61 2.60 1.96 0.64
4 PETR SYKORA RW PIT 76 12.39 0.02 1.72 2.93 2.23 0.70
5 ALEX TANGUAY LW MTL 50 11.56 0.00 2.39 3.32 2.28 1.04
6 J. WILLIAMS RW CBJ 80 12.16 0.01 2.03 2.77 2.59 0.18
7 TAYLOR PYATT LW VAN 69 11.37 0.05 1.30 2.22 2.37 -0.15
8 ALEX KOVALEV RW MTL 78 12.93 0.03 1.78 2.26 2.32 -0.06
9 P. J. AXELSSON C  BOS 75 11.80 0.01 1.22 2.10 1.97 0.13
10 ANDY HILBERT LW NYI 67 12.09 0.04 1.56 2.22 2.52 -0.30
11 V. PELTONEN LW FLA 79 12.14 -0.01 1.81 2.75 2.50 0.25
12 D. MCAMMOND LW NYI 62 9.29 -0.03 1.56 2.50 1.87 0.63
13 D. MOORE C  BUF 81 12.40 0.00 2.09 3.23 3.11 0.12
14 KYLE CALDER LW L.A 74 11.55 -0.01 1.61 2.11 1.97 0.14
15 SAKU KOIVU C  MTL 65 11.61 0.00 2.07 2.94 2.86 0.08
16 MATS SUNDIN C  VAN 41 12.66 0.01 1.62 2.31 2.66 -0.35
17 S. YELLE C  BOS 77 10.71 -0.03 1.09 1.67 1.45 0.22
18 R. NIEDERMAYER C  ANA 79 11.77 0.07 1.23 1.55 2.65 -1.10
19 MIKE GRIER RW S.J 62 12.06 -0.04 1.36 1.85 1.61 0.24
20 S.VEILLEUX LW MIN 81 13.05 0.03 1.14 1.48 2.55 -1.07
21 J. ROENICK C  S.J 42 10.47 -0.04 1.36 2.32 2.18 0.14
22 E. PERRIN C  ATL 78 9.99 0.01 1.23 2.08 2.69 -0.61
23 T. MOEN LW S.J 82 12.40 0.02 0.77 1.18 2.30 -1.12
24 B. SHANAHAN LW N.J 34 10.71 -0.01 1.65 1.98 2.47 -0.49
25 B. MORRISON C  DAL 81 11.04 -0.08 1.48 2.28 1.81 0.47
26 MICHAEL PECA C  CBJ 71 10.24 0.00 1.65 2.23 2.80 -0.57
27 RYAN BAYDA LW CAR 70 8.19 -0.05 1.26 1.67 1.57 0.10
28 MARK PARRISH RW DAL 44 9.37 -0.03 1.16 1.75 2.18 -0.43
29 MIKE COMRIE C  OTT 63 12.58 0.01 1.44 2.12 3.33 -1.21
30 RADEK BONK C  NSH 66 12.20 -0.01 0.97 1.34 2.31 -0.97
31 T. MARCHANT C  ANA 72 9.91 -0.03 0.92 1.51 2.02 -0.51
32 ALES KOTALIK RW EDM 75 12.21 -0.06 1.38 2.49 2.55 -0.06
33 MARCEL GOC C  S.J 55 11.95 -0.05 1.00 1.46 1.83 -0.37
34 SCOTT NICHOL C  NSH 43 8.24 -0.04 1.19 1.52 2.03 -0.51
35 M. AFINOGENOV RW BUF 48 9.95 -0.05 1.63 2.39 2.89 -0.50
36 BRAD MAY LW TOR 58 7.18 -0.10 1.01 2.02 2.02 0.00
37 BLAIR BETTS C  NYR 80 7.23 -0.03 0.62 1.25 2.39 -1.14
38 T. BERTUZZI LW CGY 66 13.88 -0.05 1.64 2.62 3.14 -0.52
39 BRIAN WILLSIE RW COL 42 9.85 -0.06 0.58 0.87 1.89 -1.02
40 DAN HINOTE RW STL 51 8.24 -0.06 0.43 1.86 3.14 -1.28
41 D. ARMSTRONG C  L.A 56 8.34 -0.07 1.03 1.28 2.70 -1.42
42 J. LUNDQVIST C  DAL 43 9.84 -0.08 0.85 1.13 2.41 -1.28

In general terms, at even strength last season, the guys at the top of the list helped their teams (although some had help from their linemates), while the guys at the bottom weren't helping much at all. Another key stat to keep in mind, however, is Pt/60, which is points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey.

If you factor in his offensive production, Alex Tanguay is the class of the UFA forwards still, even coming off a down year in Montreal. Players in a more defensive role at even strength who did all right include Robert Lang, Manny Malhotra, P.J. Axelsson, Stephane Yelle, Mike Grier and Andy Hilbert (remember he was on the Islanders here).

Players in an offensive role who did all right include Miroslav Satan, Petr Sykora, Jason Williams, Alex Kovalev and Saku Koivu.

On the whole, though, there's not a lot to love there. A lot of the defensive specialists like Rob Niedermayer, Travis Moen, Stephane Veilleux, Mike Peca and Todd Marchant had tough years. And I wonder if guys like Radek Bonk and friends will even find NHL employment next season.

After the jump, a look at potential power play and penalty killing gems.

Star-divide

With the man advantage, only 20 of the above players logged significant minutes. Here they are, sorted by points per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time:

NAME POS TM GP TOI Pt/60 GFON/60 GFOFF/60 Diff
1 ROBERT LANG C  MTL 50 2.84 5.49 8.45 3.25 5.20
2 ALEX KOVALEV RW MTL 78 3.81 5.25 7.27 4.86 2.41
3 P. J. AXELSSON C  BOS 75 1.73 5.10 7.87 7.71 0.16
4 M. MALHOTRA C  CBJ 77 1.07 4.36 7.99 3.55 4.44
5 ALES KOTALIK RW EDM 75 2.61 4.30 6.14 7.74 -1.60
6 SAKU KOIVU C  MTL 65 3.23 4.29 8.00 5.75 2.25
7 MATS SUNDIN C  VAN 41 3.18 4.14 8.28 4.44 3.84
8 ALEX TANGUAY LW MTL 50 3.52 4.10 8.19 4.15 4.04
9 PETR SYKORA RW PIT 76 3.42 3.92 7.38 4.77 2.61
10 MARK PARRISH RW DAL 44 1.77 3.86 6.95 3.44 3.51
11 DOMINIC MOORE C  BUF 81 1.58 3.75 6.56 7.37 -0.81
12 RADEK BONK C  NSH 66 2.20 3.72 5.79 4.63 1.16
13 TODD BERTUZZI LW CGY 66 3.93 3.70 6.02 4.97 1.05
14 MAX AFINOGENOV RW BUF 48 2.24 3.34 6.13 7.26 -1.13
15 JASON WILLIAMS RW CBJ 80 3.06 3.19 5.89 7.65 -1.76
16 MIRO SATAN RW PIT 65 2.63 2.46 5.26 5.96 -0.70
17 B. MORRISON C  DAL 81 2.19 2.36 3.04 8.82 -5.78
18 KYLE CALDER LW L.A 74 1.51 2.14 5.89 6.72 -0.83
19 MIKE COMRIE C  OTT 63 2.69 2.13 3.90 6.21 -2.31
20 B. SHANAHAN LW N.J 34 2.49 1.42 1.42 9.56 -8.14

About 4.50 and up are decent power play figures, so as you can see there aren't a lot of choices here in terms of players who play regularly with the man advantage. Lang, Kovalev, Kotalik, Koivu, Sundin, Tanguay and Sykora are okay bets to boost a second unit.

A few of the others have numbers pulled down by being on a bad PP team, but most should come with a buyer beware label. The 'Diff' figure at the far right is a look at how teams' power plays improved with these players on the ice, which doesn't speak well for many of the guys at the bottom of the list's contributions.

On the penalty kill, there are some better options. Same idea with the stats here, except I'm leaving out point production and going solely with how much better teams' 4-on-5 goals against averages were with these guys on the ice:

NAME POS TM GP TOI GAON GAON/60 GAOFF/60 Diff
1 TAYLOR PYATT LW VAN 69 2.25 12 4.64 7.52 -2.88
2 VILLE PELTONEN LW FLA 79 2.43 14 4.38 7.14 -2.76
3 TODD MARCHANT C  ANA 72 3.60 25 5.78 8.02 -2.24
4 DAN HINOTE RW STL 51 2.51 10 4.68 6.79 -2.11
5 RYAN BAYDA LW CAR 70 1.79 12 5.75 7.81 -2.06
6 P. J. AXELSSON C  BOS 75 2.39 16 5.36 7.03 -1.67
7 DEAN MCAMMOND LW NYI 62 1.64 8 4.72 5.50 -0.78
8 BLAIR BETTS C  NYR 80 2.77 13 3.51 4.20 -0.69
9 STEPHANE YELLE C  BOS 77 2.04 17 6.48 6.92 -0.44
10 ROB NIEDERMAYER C  ANA 79 3.14 29 7.00 7.30 -0.30
11 ROBERT LANG C  MTL 50 1.89 11 7.00 7.21 -0.21
12 ERIC PERRIN C  ATL 78 3.27 36 8.46 8.40 0.06
13 MANNY MALHOTRA C  CBJ 77 2.79 23 6.42 6.19 0.23
14 S. VEILLEUX LW MIN 81 2.10 11 3.87 3.52 0.35
15 MICHAEL PECA C  CBJ 71 2.44 20 6.92 5.89 1.03
16 TRAVIS MOEN LW S.J 82 2.36 25 7.75 5.97 1.78
17 ANDY HILBERT LW NYI 67 2.54 24 8.45 6.62 1.83
18 MIKE GRIER RW S.J 62 2.44 17 6.74 4.52 2.22
19 DOMINIC MOORE C  BUF 81 2.22 32 10.65 8.18 2.47
20 SCOTT NICHOL C  NSH 43 2.60 17 9.11 4.73 4.38

Those ones are pretty self-explanatory, I think. It's tough to measure penalty killing prowess on the basis of one year, but someone like Marchant obviously has a handle on the role. And ask any Rangers fan about Betts's contributions in the role.

The top all-around players, in terms of contributing everywhere, are Malhotra, Lang and Axelsson, while Lang, Sykora, Tanguay and Kovalev are the best best offensively. Defensive help could come from someone like McAmmond, Axelsson, Peltonen or even Taylor Pyatt, who quietly picked up some defensive duties and did well.

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Tanguay

He was underutilized (and injured) in MTL.

No one has the cap space left to pay him fair market value. Whoever he signs with is going to get a steal.

by sisu on Jul 6, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Tanguay

Sisu: Think we can convince Bob?

by Olivier on Jul 6, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If only there was cap space… If he moves Plekanec to create space, there will be a huge hole at C.

At his July 1 press conference, Gainey mentioned that he thought about Tanguay and went with Cammalleri instead because he’s more of a shooter. Hard to argue with that, though I think Tanguay is still the better player.

by sisu on Jul 6, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why the Habs haven’t re-signed Tanguay is frankly a mystery to me. Being a local boy, a really good ES producer, and a proven scorer, he should’ve been a natural. He’s also in the right age group to fit in with the new arrivals and help smooth out that age curve.

Sure, a pure sniper like Cammalleri probably meshes better with a pure passer like Gomez, but you would have thought they could use Tanguay to anchor their second line. Plekanec isn’t exactly a sniping center, but he’s turned into a decent goal-scorer. Even if the Habs are deep at LW, Tanguay has been effective on the right.

I wonder if there’s something we don’t know. You think that Tanguay wanted out of Calgary badly enough to get over his previously mentioned loathing of the Montreal media circus, but wants out of it now that he has a choice/has experienced it at its worst?

by MathMan on Jul 6, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There were rumours that he could have played in Games 3 and 4 against Boston but took himself out to rehab his shoulder, after the doctor left the decision up to him. There was no incidents in Games 1 and 2 that obviously suggested he had reinjured the shoulder. Tanguay had difficult relationships with Colorado’s management, not just Keenan in Calgary.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Jul 6, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess Laraque @ 1.5 with a NTC doesn’t look that good anymore, eh? Well, it never looked god, but you get my point.

by Olivier on Jul 6, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brashear got 2 years at $1.4m per, and Colton Orr got 4 years at $1m per. Tanguay being unsigned has nothing to do with Laraque. Tanguay not being re-signed has to do with Cammalleri and Gionta, as well as the hope that one of Montreal’s younger wingers can step into a second line role (Sergei Kostitsyn, Matt D’Agostini, Guillaume Latendresse or Max Pacioretty). I also don’t see what Laraque has to do with Tanguay’s injury problems, or the rumour that he ended his season voluntarily.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Jul 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plekanec should prepare himself to play wing this year, with Gomez, Cammalleri, Lapierre and Metropolit up the middle.

Has anyone heard anything to suggest that Jacques Martin intends to move Cammalleri back to the wing? I could easily see that on the PP.

by TD O'Dell on Jul 6, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cammalleri has played a ton of wing the last two seasons. More so than centre, I believe.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 6, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quite possibly.

I tried to check it out at DobberHockey, but I can’t seem to load his Line Combinations page.

If Martin stacks the top line and uses Plekanec as his second line center, will the Habs boast the richest trio in the league at over $18M, and if so, will they also suffer the biggest dropoff, with Line 2 earning $12M less than Line 1?

by TD O'Dell on Jul 6, 2009 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gainey mentioned in his presser that he has signed Cammalleri instead of Tanguay specifically to play wing with Gomez at center, because Cammalleri was more of a shooter than Tanguay.

Thus I expect Pleks will anchor the second line. And I expect he’ll do just fine with Kovalev playing elsewhere.

by Habs on Jul 6, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

lundqvist signed a six-year contract with the frolunda

by prEGnant__tEEns on Jul 6, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Checking Guys

I think Malhotra and Veilliux are the two best ones left.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Jul 6, 2009 9:27 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Kotalik could help a team as a PP and shootout specialist. He plays the point with the man advantage, and he isn’t very good at it- but he does have a rocket for a shot that’s really accurate. He could chip in 10 power play goals just playing the left point in the right situation with a partner on the backend that can distribute the puck well. Problem is he offers no creativity and is generally invisible 5 on 5.

by Make a play Whitner on Jul 6, 2009 11:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That pretty much sums up Kotalik.

Oh, and he’s got the body to play physical, but rarely does.

by Afino on Jul 6, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can take kovalev off the list, he went to Ottawa. 2 years, 10M$ according to TSN.

http://softeuropean.wordpress.com

by Grrrreg on Jul 6, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m keeping track of that over at the UFA listing. At least this gives Sens fans an idea of where Kovalev fits in.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Jul 6, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kovalev-Alfredsson-Spezza…could be glorious, or a complete failure.

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Jul 6, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kovalev is so slow the other 2 will fall asleep on this line…

by Habs on Jul 6, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Truth

Any team would be lucky to have Blair Betts manning their PK unit. He’s a great defensive forward and one of the best shot blocking forwards in the league. He’ll give up every time to stop a shot. Doesnt offer much at even strength, but he can play fairly physically, doesnt take bad penalties, and is strong on the boards in keeping possession in the offensive zone.

Only thing you have to watch out for is Post-concussion Syndrome after that hit he took in the playoffs.

by Steeeve on Jul 7, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

err…. he’ll give up the body every time to block a shot. My fault.

by Steeeve on Jul 7, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs


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