Evaluating the remaining UFAs: Forwards Edition
By my count, there are really only about 60 or 70 unrestricted free agents worth looking at, especially if you limit your list to players who played at least 30 games last season and in at least 10 minutes a game. With an assist to Behind The Net and some of Gabe Desjardins's nifty advanced metrics, what follows is an evaluation of who's left, and how they can help a team.
First, a look at 42 UFA forwards and how they stacked up at even strength last year. The key figures to know here are QCMP, which measures quality of competition players face (difficult or easy minutes), and GF/60 and GA/60, which are the scoring rates, for and against, when certain players are on the ice.
I've ranked players according to how they fared in all three stats (click the title of this post to open in a full window to read every column if some are obscured in your browser):
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | TOI | QCMP | Pt/60 | GF/60 | GA/60 | Diff | |
| 1 | MIRO SATAN | RW | PIT | 65 | 12.53 | 0.03 | 1.69 | 2.72 | 1.99 | 0.73 |
| 2 | ROBERT LANG | C | MTL | 50 | 11.00 | 0.05 | 1.85 | 2.94 | 2.62 | 0.32 |
| 3 | M. MALHOTRA | C | CBJ | 77 | 13.51 | 0.03 | 1.61 | 2.60 | 1.96 | 0.64 |
| 4 | PETR SYKORA | RW | PIT | 76 | 12.39 | 0.02 | 1.72 | 2.93 | 2.23 | 0.70 |
| 5 | ALEX TANGUAY | LW | MTL | 50 | 11.56 | 0.00 | 2.39 | 3.32 | 2.28 | 1.04 |
| 6 | J. WILLIAMS | RW | CBJ | 80 | 12.16 | 0.01 | 2.03 | 2.77 | 2.59 | 0.18 |
| 7 | TAYLOR PYATT | LW | VAN | 69 | 11.37 | 0.05 | 1.30 | 2.22 | 2.37 | -0.15 |
| 8 | ALEX KOVALEV | RW | MTL | 78 | 12.93 | 0.03 | 1.78 | 2.26 | 2.32 | -0.06 |
| 9 | P. J. AXELSSON | C | BOS | 75 | 11.80 | 0.01 | 1.22 | 2.10 | 1.97 | 0.13 |
| 10 | ANDY HILBERT | LW | NYI | 67 | 12.09 | 0.04 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 2.52 | -0.30 |
| 11 | V. PELTONEN | LW | FLA | 79 | 12.14 | -0.01 | 1.81 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 0.25 |
| 12 | D. MCAMMOND | LW | NYI | 62 | 9.29 | -0.03 | 1.56 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 0.63 |
| 13 | D. MOORE | C | BUF | 81 | 12.40 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 3.23 | 3.11 | 0.12 |
| 14 | KYLE CALDER | LW | L.A | 74 | 11.55 | -0.01 | 1.61 | 2.11 | 1.97 | 0.14 |
| 15 | SAKU KOIVU | C | MTL | 65 | 11.61 | 0.00 | 2.07 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 0.08 |
| 16 | MATS SUNDIN | C | VAN | 41 | 12.66 | 0.01 | 1.62 | 2.31 | 2.66 | -0.35 |
| 17 | S. YELLE | C | BOS | 77 | 10.71 | -0.03 | 1.09 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 0.22 |
| 18 | R. NIEDERMAYER | C | ANA | 79 | 11.77 | 0.07 | 1.23 | 1.55 | 2.65 | -1.10 |
| 19 | MIKE GRIER | RW | S.J | 62 | 12.06 | -0.04 | 1.36 | 1.85 | 1.61 | 0.24 |
| 20 | S.VEILLEUX | LW | MIN | 81 | 13.05 | 0.03 | 1.14 | 1.48 | 2.55 | -1.07 |
| 21 | J. ROENICK | C | S.J | 42 | 10.47 | -0.04 | 1.36 | 2.32 | 2.18 | 0.14 |
| 22 | E. PERRIN | C | ATL | 78 | 9.99 | 0.01 | 1.23 | 2.08 | 2.69 | -0.61 |
| 23 | T. MOEN | LW | S.J | 82 | 12.40 | 0.02 | 0.77 | 1.18 | 2.30 | -1.12 |
| 24 | B. SHANAHAN | LW | N.J | 34 | 10.71 | -0.01 | 1.65 | 1.98 | 2.47 | -0.49 |
| 25 | B. MORRISON | C | DAL | 81 | 11.04 | -0.08 | 1.48 | 2.28 | 1.81 | 0.47 |
| 26 | MICHAEL PECA | C | CBJ | 71 | 10.24 | 0.00 | 1.65 | 2.23 | 2.80 | -0.57 |
| 27 | RYAN BAYDA | LW | CAR | 70 | 8.19 | -0.05 | 1.26 | 1.67 | 1.57 | 0.10 |
| 28 | MARK PARRISH | RW | DAL | 44 | 9.37 | -0.03 | 1.16 | 1.75 | 2.18 | -0.43 |
| 29 | MIKE COMRIE | C | OTT | 63 | 12.58 | 0.01 | 1.44 | 2.12 | 3.33 | -1.21 |
| 30 | RADEK BONK | C | NSH | 66 | 12.20 | -0.01 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 2.31 | -0.97 |
| 31 | T. MARCHANT | C | ANA | 72 | 9.91 | -0.03 | 0.92 | 1.51 | 2.02 | -0.51 |
| 32 | ALES KOTALIK | RW | EDM | 75 | 12.21 | -0.06 | 1.38 | 2.49 | 2.55 | -0.06 |
| 33 | MARCEL GOC | C | S.J | 55 | 11.95 | -0.05 | 1.00 | 1.46 | 1.83 | -0.37 |
| 34 | SCOTT NICHOL | C | NSH | 43 | 8.24 | -0.04 | 1.19 | 1.52 | 2.03 | -0.51 |
| 35 | M. AFINOGENOV | RW | BUF | 48 | 9.95 | -0.05 | 1.63 | 2.39 | 2.89 | -0.50 |
| 36 | BRAD MAY | LW | TOR | 58 | 7.18 | -0.10 | 1.01 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 0.00 |
| 37 | BLAIR BETTS | C | NYR | 80 | 7.23 | -0.03 | 0.62 | 1.25 | 2.39 | -1.14 |
| 38 | T. BERTUZZI | LW | CGY | 66 | 13.88 | -0.05 | 1.64 | 2.62 | 3.14 | -0.52 |
| 39 | BRIAN WILLSIE | RW | COL | 42 | 9.85 | -0.06 | 0.58 | 0.87 | 1.89 | -1.02 |
| 40 | DAN HINOTE | RW | STL | 51 | 8.24 | -0.06 | 0.43 | 1.86 | 3.14 | -1.28 |
| 41 | D. ARMSTRONG | C | L.A | 56 | 8.34 | -0.07 | 1.03 | 1.28 | 2.70 | -1.42 |
| 42 | J. LUNDQVIST | C | DAL | 43 | 9.84 | -0.08 | 0.85 | 1.13 | 2.41 | -1.28 |
In general terms, at even strength last season, the guys at the top of the list helped their teams (although some had help from their linemates), while the guys at the bottom weren't helping much at all. Another key stat to keep in mind, however, is Pt/60, which is points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey.
If you factor in his offensive production, Alex Tanguay is the class of the UFA forwards still, even coming off a down year in Montreal. Players in a more defensive role at even strength who did all right include Robert Lang, Manny Malhotra, P.J. Axelsson, Stephane Yelle, Mike Grier and Andy Hilbert (remember he was on the Islanders here).
Players in an offensive role who did all right include Miroslav Satan, Petr Sykora, Jason Williams, Alex Kovalev and Saku Koivu.
On the whole, though, there's not a lot to love there. A lot of the defensive specialists like Rob Niedermayer, Travis Moen, Stephane Veilleux, Mike Peca and Todd Marchant had tough years. And I wonder if guys like Radek Bonk and friends will even find NHL employment next season.
After the jump, a look at potential power play and penalty killing gems.
With the man advantage, only 20 of the above players logged significant minutes. Here they are, sorted by points per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | TOI | Pt/60 | GFON/60 | GFOFF/60 | Diff | |
| 1 | ROBERT LANG | C | MTL | 50 | 2.84 | 5.49 | 8.45 | 3.25 | 5.20 |
| 2 | ALEX KOVALEV | RW | MTL | 78 | 3.81 | 5.25 | 7.27 | 4.86 | 2.41 |
| 3 | P. J. AXELSSON | C | BOS | 75 | 1.73 | 5.10 | 7.87 | 7.71 | 0.16 |
| 4 | M. MALHOTRA | C | CBJ | 77 | 1.07 | 4.36 | 7.99 | 3.55 | 4.44 |
| 5 | ALES KOTALIK | RW | EDM | 75 | 2.61 | 4.30 | 6.14 | 7.74 | -1.60 |
| 6 | SAKU KOIVU | C | MTL | 65 | 3.23 | 4.29 | 8.00 | 5.75 | 2.25 |
| 7 | MATS SUNDIN | C | VAN | 41 | 3.18 | 4.14 | 8.28 | 4.44 | 3.84 |
| 8 | ALEX TANGUAY | LW | MTL | 50 | 3.52 | 4.10 | 8.19 | 4.15 | 4.04 |
| 9 | PETR SYKORA | RW | PIT | 76 | 3.42 | 3.92 | 7.38 | 4.77 | 2.61 |
| 10 | MARK PARRISH | RW | DAL | 44 | 1.77 | 3.86 | 6.95 | 3.44 | 3.51 |
| 11 | DOMINIC MOORE | C | BUF | 81 | 1.58 | 3.75 | 6.56 | 7.37 | -0.81 |
| 12 | RADEK BONK | C | NSH | 66 | 2.20 | 3.72 | 5.79 | 4.63 | 1.16 |
| 13 | TODD BERTUZZI | LW | CGY | 66 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 6.02 | 4.97 | 1.05 |
| 14 | MAX AFINOGENOV | RW | BUF | 48 | 2.24 | 3.34 | 6.13 | 7.26 | -1.13 |
| 15 | JASON WILLIAMS | RW | CBJ | 80 | 3.06 | 3.19 | 5.89 | 7.65 | -1.76 |
| 16 | MIRO SATAN | RW | PIT | 65 | 2.63 | 2.46 | 5.26 | 5.96 | -0.70 |
| 17 | B. MORRISON | C | DAL | 81 | 2.19 | 2.36 | 3.04 | 8.82 | -5.78 |
| 18 | KYLE CALDER | LW | L.A | 74 | 1.51 | 2.14 | 5.89 | 6.72 | -0.83 |
| 19 | MIKE COMRIE | C | OTT | 63 | 2.69 | 2.13 | 3.90 | 6.21 | -2.31 |
| 20 | B. SHANAHAN | LW | N.J | 34 | 2.49 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 9.56 | -8.14 |
About 4.50 and up are decent power play figures, so as you can see there aren't a lot of choices here in terms of players who play regularly with the man advantage. Lang, Kovalev, Kotalik, Koivu, Sundin, Tanguay and Sykora are okay bets to boost a second unit.
A few of the others have numbers pulled down by being on a bad PP team, but most should come with a buyer beware label. The 'Diff' figure at the far right is a look at how teams' power plays improved with these players on the ice, which doesn't speak well for many of the guys at the bottom of the list's contributions.
On the penalty kill, there are some better options. Same idea with the stats here, except I'm leaving out point production and going solely with how much better teams' 4-on-5 goals against averages were with these guys on the ice:
| NAME | POS | TM | GP | TOI | GAON | GAON/60 | GAOFF/60 | Diff | |
| 1 | TAYLOR PYATT | LW | VAN | 69 | 2.25 | 12 | 4.64 | 7.52 | -2.88 |
| 2 | VILLE PELTONEN | LW | FLA | 79 | 2.43 | 14 | 4.38 | 7.14 | -2.76 |
| 3 | TODD MARCHANT | C | ANA | 72 | 3.60 | 25 | 5.78 | 8.02 | -2.24 |
| 4 | DAN HINOTE | RW | STL | 51 | 2.51 | 10 | 4.68 | 6.79 | -2.11 |
| 5 | RYAN BAYDA | LW | CAR | 70 | 1.79 | 12 | 5.75 | 7.81 | -2.06 |
| 6 | P. J. AXELSSON | C | BOS | 75 | 2.39 | 16 | 5.36 | 7.03 | -1.67 |
| 7 | DEAN MCAMMOND | LW | NYI | 62 | 1.64 | 8 | 4.72 | 5.50 | -0.78 |
| 8 | BLAIR BETTS | C | NYR | 80 | 2.77 | 13 | 3.51 | 4.20 | -0.69 |
| 9 | STEPHANE YELLE | C | BOS | 77 | 2.04 | 17 | 6.48 | 6.92 | -0.44 |
| 10 | ROB NIEDERMAYER | C | ANA | 79 | 3.14 | 29 | 7.00 | 7.30 | -0.30 |
| 11 | ROBERT LANG | C | MTL | 50 | 1.89 | 11 | 7.00 | 7.21 | -0.21 |
| 12 | ERIC PERRIN | C | ATL | 78 | 3.27 | 36 | 8.46 | 8.40 | 0.06 |
| 13 | MANNY MALHOTRA | C | CBJ | 77 | 2.79 | 23 | 6.42 | 6.19 | 0.23 |
| 14 | S. VEILLEUX | LW | MIN | 81 | 2.10 | 11 | 3.87 | 3.52 | 0.35 |
| 15 | MICHAEL PECA | C | CBJ | 71 | 2.44 | 20 | 6.92 | 5.89 | 1.03 |
| 16 | TRAVIS MOEN | LW | S.J | 82 | 2.36 | 25 | 7.75 | 5.97 | 1.78 |
| 17 | ANDY HILBERT | LW | NYI | 67 | 2.54 | 24 | 8.45 | 6.62 | 1.83 |
| 18 | MIKE GRIER | RW | S.J | 62 | 2.44 | 17 | 6.74 | 4.52 | 2.22 |
| 19 | DOMINIC MOORE | C | BUF | 81 | 2.22 | 32 | 10.65 | 8.18 | 2.47 |
| 20 | SCOTT NICHOL | C | NSH | 43 | 2.60 | 17 | 9.11 | 4.73 | 4.38 |
Those ones are pretty self-explanatory, I think. It's tough to measure penalty killing prowess on the basis of one year, but someone like Marchant obviously has a handle on the role. And ask any Rangers fan about Betts's contributions in the role.
The top all-around players, in terms of contributing everywhere, are Malhotra, Lang and Axelsson, while Lang, Sykora, Tanguay and Kovalev are the best best offensively. Defensive help could come from someone like McAmmond, Axelsson, Peltonen or even Taylor Pyatt, who quietly picked up some defensive duties and did well.
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Tanguay
He was underutilized (and injured) in MTL.
No one has the cap space left to pay him fair market value. Whoever he signs with is going to get a steal.
by sisu on Jul 6, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Tanguay
Sisu: Think we can convince Bob?
by Olivier on Jul 6, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only there was cap space… If he moves Plekanec to create space, there will be a huge hole at C.
At his July 1 press conference, Gainey mentioned that he thought about Tanguay and went with Cammalleri instead because he’s more of a shooter. Hard to argue with that, though I think Tanguay is still the better player.
by sisu on Jul 6, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why the Habs haven’t re-signed Tanguay is frankly a mystery to me. Being a local boy, a really good ES producer, and a proven scorer, he should’ve been a natural. He’s also in the right age group to fit in with the new arrivals and help smooth out that age curve.
Sure, a pure sniper like Cammalleri probably meshes better with a pure passer like Gomez, but you would have thought they could use Tanguay to anchor their second line. Plekanec isn’t exactly a sniping center, but he’s turned into a decent goal-scorer. Even if the Habs are deep at LW, Tanguay has been effective on the right.
I wonder if there’s something we don’t know. You think that Tanguay wanted out of Calgary badly enough to get over his previously mentioned loathing of the Montreal media circus, but wants out of it now that he has a choice/has experienced it at its worst?
by MathMan on Jul 6, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There were rumours that he could have played in Games 3 and 4 against Boston but took himself out to rehab his shoulder, after the doctor left the decision up to him. There was no incidents in Games 1 and 2 that obviously suggested he had reinjured the shoulder. Tanguay had difficult relationships with Colorado’s management, not just Keenan in Calgary.
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
by saskhab on Jul 6, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess Laraque @ 1.5 with a NTC doesn’t look that good anymore, eh? Well, it never looked god, but you get my point.
by Olivier on Jul 6, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brashear got 2 years at $1.4m per, and Colton Orr got 4 years at $1m per. Tanguay being unsigned has nothing to do with Laraque. Tanguay not being re-signed has to do with Cammalleri and Gionta, as well as the hope that one of Montreal’s younger wingers can step into a second line role (Sergei Kostitsyn, Matt D’Agostini, Guillaume Latendresse or Max Pacioretty). I also don’t see what Laraque has to do with Tanguay’s injury problems, or the rumour that he ended his season voluntarily.
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
by saskhab on Jul 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plekanec should prepare himself to play wing this year, with Gomez, Cammalleri, Lapierre and Metropolit up the middle.
Has anyone heard anything to suggest that Jacques Martin intends to move Cammalleri back to the wing? I could easily see that on the PP.
by TD O'Dell on Jul 6, 2009 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cammalleri has played a ton of wing the last two seasons. More so than centre, I believe.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jul 6, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quite possibly.
I tried to check it out at DobberHockey, but I can’t seem to load his Line Combinations page.
If Martin stacks the top line and uses Plekanec as his second line center, will the Habs boast the richest trio in the league at over $18M, and if so, will they also suffer the biggest dropoff, with Line 2 earning $12M less than Line 1?
by TD O'Dell on Jul 6, 2009 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gainey mentioned in his presser that he has signed Cammalleri instead of Tanguay specifically to play wing with Gomez at center, because Cammalleri was more of a shooter than Tanguay.
Thus I expect Pleks will anchor the second line. And I expect he’ll do just fine with Kovalev playing elsewhere.
by Habs on Jul 6, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lundqvist signed a six-year contract with the frolunda
by prEGnant__tEEns on Jul 6, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Checking Guys
I think Malhotra and Veilliux are the two best ones left.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Jul 6, 2009 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kotalik could help a team as a PP and shootout specialist. He plays the point with the man advantage, and he isn’t very good at it- but he does have a rocket for a shot that’s really accurate. He could chip in 10 power play goals just playing the left point in the right situation with a partner on the backend that can distribute the puck well. Problem is he offers no creativity and is generally invisible 5 on 5.
by Make a play Whitner on Jul 6, 2009 11:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That pretty much sums up Kotalik.
Oh, and he’s got the body to play physical, but rarely does.
by Afino on Jul 6, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can take kovalev off the list, he went to Ottawa. 2 years, 10M$ according to TSN.
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by Grrrreg on Jul 6, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m keeping track of that over at the UFA listing. At least this gives Sens fans an idea of where Kovalev fits in.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
by James Mirtle on Jul 6, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kovalev-Alfredsson-Spezza…could be glorious, or a complete failure.
I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.
by Smoboy41 on Jul 6, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kovalev is so slow the other 2 will fall asleep on this line…
by Habs on Jul 6, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Truth
Any team would be lucky to have Blair Betts manning their PK unit. He’s a great defensive forward and one of the best shot blocking forwards in the league. He’ll give up every time to stop a shot. Doesnt offer much at even strength, but he can play fairly physically, doesnt take bad penalties, and is strong on the boards in keeping possession in the offensive zone.
Only thing you have to watch out for is Post-concussion Syndrome after that hit he took in the playoffs.
by Steeeve on Jul 7, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
err…. he’ll give up the body every time to block a shot. My fault.
by Steeeve on Jul 7, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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