The Flyers goaltending: Not as bad as you think (and other netminding myths)

by James Mirtle on Aug 25, 2009 9:15 AM CDT in Statistics Comment 31 comments

Mr. Ray Emery. The troubled soul. And, along with Brian Boucher, the latest in a long line of Flyers netminders that has tried to take over the No. 1 job in Philadelphia and do away with the stigma that exists when it comes to that franchise's men in masks.

The Flyers have a 34-year Stanley Cup drought heading into this season, and the common refrain on that generally comes back to those between the pipes. Remember the Dominic Roussel era? How about Garth Snow, Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche and, well... Brian Boucher?

There's something about goaltending that, when it's bad, it can hang on a franchise like an odour, weighing on fans and netminders alike. Pre-Luongo, for example, Vancouver was always pegged as a goalie graveyard (although some would argue a few of his predecessors were stiff upon arrival). In Ottawa, they seemingly haven't had a lot of luck at the position either, with Patrick Lalime's ugly turn in the 2004 postseason serving as just one reminder of failures past.

Anyway, it all made me wonder which franchises have really been home to the worst goaltenders in recent years and where exactly teams like Flyers, Sens and Canucks fit into the picture. So I made a chart.

Over the past 10 seasons, the average team save percentage has been about .904, with the top team (Minnesota) coming in well ahead of the pack at .916, followed by Florida and Anaheim at .911. Bringing up the rear are the Lightning with a god-awful .894.

Here's a look at the Wild, Lightning and Flyers (who slide in above the league average) graphed against that NHL average over this time period:

Goaltending_chart_medium

So, during the regular season anyway, Philadelphia's 'tenders have posted a better than league average save percentage in seven of the past 10 seasons. And there haven't been all that many playoff goats, either.

Tampa, meanwhile, has been on a pretty wild ride that appears to be on the upswing with Mike Smith taking over the role.

Here are all 30 teams and their 10-year averages (note that the Wild, Blue Jackets and Thrashers did not play in every season taken into account here):

	TEAM	AVG
1	Minnesota	0.916
2	Florida	0.911
3	Anaheim	0.911
4	Montreal	0.910
5	New Jersey	0.910
6	Buffalo	0.909
7	San Jose	0.909
8	Nashville	0.909
9	Detroit	0.907
10	Colorado	0.907
11	Ottawa	0.907
12	Dallas	0.907
13	Philadelphia	0.905
14	Boston	0.905
15	NY Rangers	0.904
16	Phoenix	0.904
17	Calgary	0.903
18	Vancouver	0.903
19	Washington	0.903
20	Columbus	0.902
21	Edmonton	0.902
22	Carolina	0.901
23	NY Islanders	0.900
24	Toronto	0.900
25	Los Angeles	0.899
26	Pittsburgh	0.898
27	Chicago	0.898
28	St. Louis	0.897
29	Atlanta	0.895
30	Tampa Bay	0.894
	Average	0.904

If we limit this analysis to just the postlockout period, things change up slightly, however. The Wild, Devils, Panthers, Predators and Ducks are the top teams the past four seasons, with the Lightning, Leafs, Kings, Blues and Avalanche all at the bottom:

	TEAM	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	AVG
1	Minnesota	0.914	0.922	0.915	0.922	0.918
2	New Jersey	0.906	0.917	0.914	0.914	0.913
3	Florida	0.912	0.896	0.920	0.922	0.913
4	Nashville	0.916	0.919	0.908	0.905	0.912
5	Anaheim	0.909	0.912	0.920	0.906	0.912
6	NY Rangers	0.911	0.909	0.911	0.913	0.911
7	Vancouver	0.898	0.918	0.913	0.911	0.910
8	Boston	0.902	0.896	0.914	0.925	0.909
9	Montreal	0.903	0.907	0.917	0.908	0.909
10	Calgary	0.915	0.912	0.904	0.899	0.908
11	Ottawa	0.913	0.913	0.901	0.901	0.907
12	Buffalo	0.906	0.906	0.900	0.911	0.906
13	San Jose	0.892	0.908	0.906	0.911	0.904
14	Pittsburgh	0.886	0.905	0.916	0.906	0.903
15	Detroit	0.906	0.905	0.907	0.894	0.903
16	Philadelphia	0.893	0.889	0.913	0.913	0.902
17	NY Islanders	0.892	0.912	0.904	0.900	0.902
18	Columbus	0.900	0.896	0.907	0.902	0.901
19	Dallas	0.897	0.907	0.905	0.891	0.900
20	Atlanta	0.891	0.907	0.904	0.896	0.900
21	Edmonton	0.884	0.900	0.904	0.909	0.899
22	Washington	0.896	0.899	0.900	0.901	0.899
23	Carolina	0.897	0.894	0.896	0.909	0.899
24	Chicago	0.885	0.896	0.902	0.911	0.899
25	Phoenix	0.892	0.886	0.911	0.904	0.898
26	Colorado	0.896	0.896	0.903	0.894	0.897
27	St. Louis	0.887	0.895	0.897	0.903	0.896
28	Los Angeles	0.891	0.886	0.900	0.902	0.895
29	Toronto	0.895	0.888	0.893	0.885	0.890
30	Tampa Bay	0.887	0.884	0.885	0.900	0.889
	Average	0.899	0.903	0.906	0.906	0.903

Now, obviously some of what we're seeing here can be attributed to the teams' style of play, as the majority of the clubs at the top of the list all employ a somewhat defensive style. That said, this gives you a general sense of which franchises truly haven't had luck in the goaltending department the past few years.

If anyone wants to take a run at adjusted save percentage totals for this period, I'd be glad to post them.

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Interesting numbers, especially considering certain players. For example, how far has Turco fallen. And on the other hand, how well Lehtonen must have played to post his numbers in that environment.

by Malurous on Aug 25, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Among Bobby Clarke’s distinctive qualities as a GM was the ability to always blame his goalie after the playoffs. He did have some poor performances, but with him it was always the goaltender’s fault.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Aug 25, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You’d think that playing in front of Bernie Parent, he would have learned the importance of great goaltending.

That seems to have been a recurring theme with Flyers. Lose? Blame the coach. Blame Lindros. Blame the coach. 2 goals in 5 playoff games, Primeau the captain blames the coach for everyone’s failure. Steve Downie? Everyone else’s fault. Repeated dumb suspensions? It’s not their fault. Nobody taking responsibility.

Mike Richards as a 20-year old sophomore on the worst team in the league showed more accountability than nearly everyone in that franchise had for a long time.

by Bosc Ulrich on Aug 25, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

James, I thought the Oilers beat the Flyers in ’85?

by Bosc Ulrich on Aug 25, 2009 9:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep, should be 34 year drought, not 24.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Aug 25, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My bad, I’ll get that fixed.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Aug 25, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the problem with Philly in particular has been that they haven’t had goalies steal them many games come playoff time. Of course, the one time they actually DID have that just had to be against the Habs.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Aug 25, 2009 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The emergence of Marc-Andre Fleury’s consistency (along with a great year from Conklin) boosts Pittsburgh a league-high 12 places in the two charts and above the league average.

Of course, the fact they had terrible defensive corps and shudder inducing goalies like JS Aubin and Sebastien Caron in the early part of the decade also helped them rise so far, since they started pretty low.

Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*

*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night

by Hooks Orpik on Aug 25, 2009 10:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36M9fW32dak

#6. Classic Roman.

by Bosc Ulrich on Aug 25, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the St. Louis Blues’ search for a No. 1 goalie has been just as bizarre, convoluted and horrific as anything Philly or Ottawa have undergone. The numbers here seem to bear that out.

"Sweet Zarley Zalapski, Batman!"

by ZarleyZalapski on Aug 25, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Very, very true. The postseason failure problem hasn’t been as prevelant post-lockout, but pre-lockout it was a huge story. And I’d say based on Chris Mason’s play in the 4 game sweep by Vancouver, it looks like it could be front and centre yet again.

And of course, there’s Los Angeles.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Aug 25, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d put the blame for the Blues’ ouster on their woeful PP, not Chris Mason’s goaltending.

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Aug 25, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both were awful. I hadn’t seen a five hole as easy to exploit in the NHL playoffs in over a decade, though.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Aug 25, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cloutier?

by Bosc Ulrich on Aug 25, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man, you let ONE goal in from centre ice…

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Aug 25, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keenan dumps Joseph … Fuhr shows up out of shape (but plays his way back to form, only to have Kypreos take out his knee) … put their faith in Turek, which blows up on them in Round 1 of a Pres. Trophy year and then in the conf. finals of 2001 … Brent Johnson never quite arrives … Jim Carey, Tom Barrasso … pre-reformation Osgood … yep, they’ve had a bizarre run.

Reportedly, there was a deal in place for Hasek in 2001, which Hasek blocked and demanded going to Detroit instead — not that Hasek would have avoided a relapse of Goalie Headcase Syndrome in St. Louis, where it’s apparently in the water.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 25, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Number of penalty kills will be a much bigger factor than style of play, so if someone’s looking to refine it, start by checking just the 5-on-5 numbers instead of the adjusted save percentage.

by RyanV on Aug 25, 2009 11:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

one thing being neglected is

what happens when Emery freaks out again and blows up?

by nuftjedi on Aug 25, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

just keep trainers and hats away from him

by DarrenM on Aug 25, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Sharks have been less than impressive in the play-offs the last few years, yet I don’t think I’ve read anything scape-goating their goaltending.

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Aug 25, 2009 12:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ottawa

Was there anything better then the season that Ottawa traded Tugnutt for Barasso cause they wanted a playoff Vet goalie and Barasso bombed in the playoffs and Tugnutt helped his team which was seeded 8th get to the 2nd round. For some reason I love when the Senators fail.

by WebBard on Aug 25, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

you ain’t the only one!

Being a Leaf fan here requires one to be sufficiently lubricated... and truculent!

by stucky on Aug 26, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those statistics are totally irrelevant.

Philadelphia has not had goaltender struggles in the regular season because a 5 game losing streak is not a big deal in the context of a regular season. But as the games become tighter and the team you face is just as strong defensively as you, a goaltender becomes more important.

So when 1 goal can change a pivotal game and the other team on the other end is not providing you with any freebies, every mistake is magnified.

It is why goalies llke Andrew Raycroft, Roman Cechmanek, Byron Dafoe, Bob Froese and Patrick Lalime have crumbled in the playoffs. Monster regular seasons reduced to rubble in a matter of weeks.

The Minnesota Wild have not had the best goaltending over the last 9 years, they have had a coach who has sacrificed offense to shore up his own zone. Is it a coincidence that everywhere that Ken Hitchcock goes that superstar goaltenders appear? Of course not.

The Flyers have paid the price in the playoffs. Late in Game 6 in 95 when Hextall whiffs on a Claude Lemieux slapper, the Beezer blowing a Stumpy Thomas backhand from a terrible angle allowing the Leafs to avoid going down 0-2. Cechmanek trying to pick up his glove and having Robert Reichel float one over his head. Over and over again because they are solid goaltenders who don’t have another level. They are insulated in a strong system.

Goaltending statistics lie all the time, yet somehow they hand out the Vezina to the player with the best statistics. Does anybody believe that Tim Thomas is better than Luongo or Ward? It is a team based statistic and generally poor goaltending is exposed during the playoffs. You cannot win a series on goaltending alone, but you can definitely lose one.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Aug 25, 2009 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Good regular season, then.....

1) Just an off the wall prediction?:
The combined records/stats for Flyers goalies during the 2009-2010 regular season will be in the top 10.
The Flyers will lose in the 1st or second rounds and the difference will be goaltending.
Just saying….

I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on Aug 25, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In other words, water is wet, sky is blue, women are crazy.

2008-2009 Colorado Avalanche: Dry Humping Mediocrity

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 25, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually,

sky is 90% transparent and colourless (-minus pollution that is) the blue color is the change of hue through sunlight and atmospheric layers of the black nothingness of cosmic space… just saying… :)

by fweakyfishie on Aug 27, 2009 6:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you downsize our pain.

As a lifetime Flyers fan sir, I am offended at the inaccuracy of your article in light of our longtime suffering.

Our drought is 34 years long…not your pitifully short 24 years.

by Gary P on Aug 25, 2009 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

James has just been partying like it’s 1999 a lot this summer.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Aug 25, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What’s a decade here or there among ~~friends~~ long-suffering fans?

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 25, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the numbers BUT......

is save percentage the standard for judging quality goaltending?
Yes, it is an accepted practice to judge goalies on this stat, but the stat doesnt take into consideration the quality of the shots against. As a former goalie I struggled to find key statistics to judge my performance, and there really isnt an accurate performance indicator.
Thanks for the great analysis and the data, as you did your home work. Let’s just say I hope your right about our netminders this season.

by CORGON64 on Aug 29, 2009 7:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs