2009-10 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

by James Mirtle on Sep 16, 2009 7:00 AM CDT Comment 20 comments

Who's in: Steve Begin, Derek Morris
Who's out: P.J. Axelsson, Manny Fernandez, Shane Hnidy, Steve Montador, Aaron Ward, Stephane Yelle

Outlook: With the majority of the Bruins new cap contributions committed to contracts for Tim Thomas and David Krejci, Boston was pretty quiet in free agency, opting only to bring back greybeard Mark Recchi and sign defenceman Derek Morris, useful plugger Steve Begin and backup netminder Dany Sabourin. In terms of losses, there were a few, with long-time checking forward P.J. Axelsson, netminder Manny Fernandez, centre Stephane Yelle and defenders Aaron Ward, Steve Montador and Shane Hnidy all headed elsewhere.

Add in the fact that Phil Kessel, a restricted free agent, is expecting a big pay raise despite the team's lack of payroll room, and the Bruins lineup could look considerably different come October. Indications are that Kessel will be moved out in the near future, and his contributions up front will likely be missed.

Where Boston will be hoping for more is from Marco Sturm and Andrew Ference, two players who played well last season but missed significant time due to injury. A healthy return from both would go a long way toward offsetting some of the Bruins losses.

Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism, however, is the fact Boston should easily remain the top dog in the Northeast Division given their rivals are all regrouping after poor seasons. Barring a major injury to a key cog like Thomas or Zdeno Chara, Boston should be a top team in the wide-open Eastern Conference.

X-factor: Phil Kessel

For a more in-depth Bruins preview, visit Stanley Cup of Chowder
For more NHL analysis, check out the McKeen's Hockey Yearbook

Poll

Where will the Bruins finish in the Eastern Conference this season?

1

47 votes

2

90 votes

3

110 votes

4

30 votes

5

17 votes

6

13 votes

7

11 votes

8

2 votes

9

3 votes

10

3 votes

11

0 votes

12

0 votes

13

0 votes

14

1 votes

15

10 votes

337 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I think the x-factor is not Kessel but Thomas. Look, his story is a great one, but he’s 35 years old. Can he stay healthy? If not, Sabourin has never shown that he can be the #1 goalie on a team.

And his contract could be a huge albatross for this team, one that is full of young players in need of raises.

by RCheli on Sep 16, 2009 8:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed that Thomas is the “X-factor.” The Bruins lack an offensive powerhouse up front in the mold of Ovechkin, Datsyuk, or Malkin, which hurts in do-or-die scenarios like Game 7s. Until they get one or someone steps into that role I can’t see them making it into the ECF. But should be another spectacular season.

by red army line on Sep 16, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I assumed Sabourin was signed to be the #3 behind Tuuka Rask. Is Rask still not ready?

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Sep 16, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind Thomas staying healthy. His performance last year was unreal and, unless he is actually Hasek-like and worthy of being discussed as one of the best goalies in NHL history, probably unsustainable. And the oh-so-vaunted Boston defense is actually quite pedestrian at preventing shots, so goaltending was a huge, huge part of why they did so well. Even if Thomas is healthy but is merely excellent rather than unearthly, that figures to be a significant difference in goals against.

Add to that bumper seasons from eveyrone on their roster and the apparent loss of Kessel, and Boston is practically a mortal lock to take a significant step back. Probably not back to the point where they collect a negative goal-differential and barely squeeze into the playoffs like the previous year, but certainly they’d be very unlikely to win the East again. Whether any of the Northeast teams can put their stuff together enough to challenge for the division title is unknown at this point (both Ottawa and Montreal would seem like they have the talent level to do so, but they have a lot of questions surrounding them).

Speaking of them, I have no idea why Boston isn’t hanging on Kessel for dear life. A young scorer like him would seem to be a vital piece going forward, if not the future face of the franchise outright.

by MathMan on Sep 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Definitely agree with this statement. Kessel is the guy that should’ve been signed ASAP. You can’t build a sustainable top level team without first line forwards, and Kessel is the most obvious one on that entire roster, at least long term (Savard is one currently). If you don’t have guys like Kessel, it becomes easier to shut down support guys like Krejci, Wheeler, Ryder and Kobasew. If they trade him to Toronto for draft picks which turn into more Zach Hammils and Marc Stuarts rather than another Kessel that’s a huge step backwards.

Boston won’t be as good this year as last, that’s pretty much a given. They could, however, do better in the postseason… a lot of things happen come playoffs, especially for teams that have experienced them before. It’s just that their regular season won’t be so dominating.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 16, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously he’d be an important guy to re-sign, but I can easily see reasons why they wouldn’t want to toss five million a year to him and give up their depth in the process (any way you look at it, such a signing would force the Bruins to go down to two scoring lines):

1) Poor attitude and work ethic, unwillingness to admit flaws and work on them, unwillingness to play through minor injuries when other players are playing through worse
2) One good season, which raises other questions
3) Played exclusively with Savard – how would he do without him?
4) So far has done more harm than good on a primary power play – a big minus for a goalscorer
5) Scored 80 % of his goals against non-playoff opponents – largest percentage in the league by far
6) Completely one-dimensional, useless without the puck

And really, his problems are so totally against Bruins team values (hard work, strong following of a system, being hard to play against, good all-round play) that they become a bigger problem in such an environment. I’d re-sign him, but not at the expense of breaking up the team.

by Malurous on Sep 16, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

1) Kessel came back from cancer earlier than anyone anticipated, and played hurt in the playoffs, so much so that he’s still not ready to play.
2) Upwards trajectory. What other questions do you have? 11 goals, 19 goals, 36 goals. He’s 21.
3) Name all other 30+ goal scorers who have played with Marc Savard. OK, I will. Ilya Kovalchuk, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla.
4) Good PP guys are generally veterans.
5) Every goal counts if you want to make the playoffs. Plus he has 9 playoff goals in 15 career games.
6) He’s 21.

Name a consistent high end team that sheds first line talent on a consistent basis. You don’t sustain success with scoring depth, you sustain success with high end scorers. They make the jobs of support guys easier.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 16, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree. I’m always one to dismiss people who claim a professional athlete has poor work ethic and unwillingness to change. I mean, the guy made it to the most elite league in the world at 18 and scored 36 goals at 20. You really aren’t getting by only on talent any more.

by RCheli on Sep 16, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If every report about these issues is a lie, then everything’s fine and Boston management are being idiots. It just seems that most of the times when there have been such rumblings we’ve found out later that there has been at least some merit to them.

by Malurous on Sep 16, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course. You’re pointing the positives, which don’t really disregard the possible negatives (which make losing Savard, Lucic etc. over him dangerous). I was partially playing the devil’s advocate there, but also trying to show why he’s not in the “there’s absolutely no question about keeping him no matter what” territory – just by looking at players from him draft class, guys like Toews and Backstrom belong there as there are no question marks.

1) Which doesn’t make everything in my first point any less true.
2) There are plenty of players who have had an upwards trajectory when they were very young only to crash and burn later. Character issues don’t exactly make this less probable.
3) Those are almost everyone he played with since he got his game together, and he did get an over the hill Glen Murray to score at a 39 goal pace over a full season – which is pretty much the same pace he had with Thornton.
4) That doesn’t mean that every young guy who’s bad on the PP automatically becomes good when he’s older, especially if said guy is unwilling to take advice from anyone.
5) If the goal becomes merely making the playoffs, then that’s all fine and dandy. He had a point a game a year ago, but also was a healthy scratch for three of the seven games. And last season, he also had a point a game but goals in one game of the seven-game Carolina series. I’m certain that you liked his playoff performance if you go by the Habs series.
6) Players with similar numbers up to the age of 21 and similar amounts of character issues and greed include Alexandre Daigle and Nik Zherdev.

I agree that losing first line talent is a bad idea, but I just don’t think that Kessel’s the type you want to hold on to no matter the price. The risks are so much larger than with other players.

That said, I don’t know why I’m making these arguments because I’d like to see him back. I just see negatives as well.

by Malurous on Sep 16, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did have Thomas in there, but let’s face it, it’s widely expected he’s going to have a small step back. His 2007-08 season was pretty good in its own right, so I’m not throwing in the towel on him completely.

Plus, I think Rask can play.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 16, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t expect Thomas to crash either, but even an excellent-but-not-unearthly performance by him will make a significant difference to Boston. Despite the reputation of their defense, the Bruins aren’t really very good at preventing shots. Even going from .933 to .918 — his 08-09 total versus his career average — on Boston’s 2525 shots against in 08-09 represents a difference of 38 goals against. That eats up half of Boston’s 08-09 goal differential and would by itself represent a significant drop-off right there, despite Tim Thomas playing at what represents a very high goaltending standard (.918 would have been well into the top 10 of all goalies last year).

by MathMan on Sep 16, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention that they lost two very good PK players (at least historically) in Axelsson and Yelle.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 16, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate continuing on with the anti-Washington diatribe here, but they’re in the exact same situation with Varlamov.

He’s yet to prove that he can be a #1 goalie over a full season, which to me is a bigger problem than wondering if Thomas will fall apart this season.

So until further notice (aka when Thomas finally goes down), I still have Boston as #1 in the East, albeit with a slightly less point total than last year. Philly/Pittsburgh 2, Washington 3.

Agreed on the Kessel point though – why WOULDN’T you want to keep a 21 year old sniper?

by Afino on Sep 16, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they should win the division but . . .

I also see them regressing this year. My take is that last season was, if not a fluke, at least the result of a confluence of very favorable circumstances: a weak division in which their main rival turned into a train wreck, a superlative season from Thomas, no significant injuries to key players (e.g., Savard, Chara), and playing over their heads through the first few months of the season. Their flameout against Carolina was partly their relative lack of playoff experience, but partly it was the fact that they aren’t actually as good as their Nov-Feb performance suggested. Their defense corps gets very thin once you’re past Chara and Wideman. Up front they have a ton of depth, but they lack a consistent scoring threat and leadership there. And I do think that some of their young talent is a bit overrated (e.g., all the talk of Milan Lucic being the second coming of Cam Neely is, IMO, a tad premature).

I disagree that the team should break the bank for Kessel, having watched him a lot last year. The player I can’t help comparing him to is Alex Kovalev: both are immensely talented, yet both have a tendency to sleepwalk through portions of the season for no obvious reason. Kessel has the tools to be a 50-goal scorer, and I’m guessing that he’ll be paid like one at some point, but I doubt he’ll ever do much better than the 36 he had last year. (Particularly if he has to get those goals without Savard feeding him and Lucic making space in front of the net.)

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Sep 16, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t expect them to reach the lofty points total of last year either, but you have to keep in mind that the Carolina loss had as much to do with having to dress depth d-men with hands of stone and play similar regulars too much due to injuries as anything. So much for no significant injuries in that regard.

by Malurous on Sep 16, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As far as “significant injuries to key players”, I guess what I had in mind was more like Gonchar in Pittsburgh, or Sakic in Colorado (i.e., a critical player being lost for months). The B’s would have been completely screwed last year had they had to play without Chara for any serious length of time.

P is for Latrobe.

by holiday park on Sep 16, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs