2009-10 NHL Season Preview: Montreal Canadiens

by James Mirtle on Sep 20, 2009 7:00 AM CDT Comment 10 comments

More photos » by Paul Chiasson - AP

Who's in: Mike Cammalleri, Hal Gill, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Paul Mara, Travis Moen, Curtis Sanford, Jaroslav Spacek
Who's out: Francis Bouillon, Patrice Brisebois, Mathieu Dandenault, Christopher Higgins, Saku Koivu, Mike Komisarek, Tom Kostopoulos, Alex Kovalev, Robert Lang, Mathieu Schneider, Alex Tanguay

Outlook: Few NHL franchises have ever had as dramatic an off-season makeover as the Habs did this summer.

Gone are no fewer than 11 regulars from a year ago, from captain Saku Koivu to Alex Kovalev, Robert Lang, Mike Komisarek, Alex Tanguay and Chris Higgins, all key cogs headed for other destinations. In terms of replacements, GM Bob Gainey dipped heavily into free agency, signing Brian Gionta, Mike Cammalleri and Travis Moen up front, and another trio of blueliners in Paul Mara, Jaroslav Spacek and Hal Gill.

On the trade front, there was a blockbuster, too, as the Canadiens assumed Scott Gomez's mammoth contract in exchange for Higgins and prospects.

And, to top it all off, a new coach will preside over the group in Jacques Martin, who was rescued from the Panthers front office and charged with hauling this team back up the mountain.

Where does it all leave them?

Last season was a complete disaster in Montreal from the all-star break on, and what Gainey needs more than strong performances from the newcomers is for rebound years from Carey Price, Tomas Plekanec and some of the other players on the roster. Martin's system will likely ensure this is a tight-checking, defensive team, but secondary scoring will likely be an issue, and they'll have to win a lot of low scoring games to move up in the Eastern Conference.

Wholesale rebuilds via free agency rarely pay off in the NHL, and the Habs aren't likely to break the mould. On paper, they fall right back in where they finished last season.

X-factor: Tomas Plekanec

For a more in-depth Habs preview, visit Eyes on the Prize
For more NHL analysis, check out the McKeen's Hockey Yearbook

Poll

Where will the Habs finish in the Eastern Conference this season?

1

19 votes

2

4 votes

3

8 votes

4

18 votes

5

27 votes

6

56 votes

7

34 votes

8

33 votes

9

43 votes

10

35 votes

11

9 votes

12

15 votes

13

4 votes

14

6 votes

15

14 votes

325 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

It’s really tough to predict where teams with this much turnover will finish. I for one don’t believe the changes will work. 10th.

by red army line on Sep 20, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it is safe to say that they lost more than they gained…

Blue and Gold (of Buffalo)

by Ebscer on Sep 20, 2009 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

How? Cammalleri is a better player than Kovalev. Gomez has led the league in assists before… Koivu was never amongst the league leaders in any category. Gionta regularly pots 20 and has one outlier season with Gomez previously… him for Tanguay is a bit of a hard thing to take, but the Habs wanted shooters. Komisarek was a giveaway machine with no offensive upside… at least Spacek is a giveaway machine who makes plays on occasion. After that, they replaced Schneider and Bouillon with Mara and Gill. Schneider was a rental anyways, so I guess the better comparison is Brisebois. They replaced Kostopolous with Moen. Again, they lost Lang, but he too was a rental (and without him getting injured the Habs didn’t have the cap space for Schneider last year), and with Lang’s injury it wasn’t realistic to expect him to come back anywhere near where he left off.

Safe? This was a perennial 7th to 10th seed team with one outlier season of 1st that never passed the 2nd round. The guys they got in return are generally younger and have a winning pedigree. It’ll be important for younger guys like the Kostitsyns, Plekanec, Price, Latendresse and Gorges to step up to make this team more than a 7th to 10th place team, and I still have confidence in those guys. I don’t know where they finish this season, but I’m confident in the seasons beyond.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 20, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the defence better, and I think the coaching will be better. If they turn to Halak earlier when/if Price struggles, the goaltending will be better, too.

The Habs are probably going to have some serious issues with secondary scoring though.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 20, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect Cammalleri to score 30-35, Andrei Kostitsyn to score about 30, Gionta and Plekanec to score 20-25 each, Gomez and Latendresse to score 17-22 each, and 10-15 each from the likes of S. Kostitsyn, Lapierre, and D’Agostini. Not to mention Markov and Spacek averaging about 10 goals each (7-12 range). That’s a range of 177 to 228 goals from 11 players. 10-13 depth guys adding about 4 goals each fills out the roster. Obviously, you can see who the key players are based on this.

I also expect a #1 PP of Cammalleri-Gomez-Kostitsyn-Markov-Spacek to be a top 5 unit. Markov and Cammalleri are elite PP players and Spacek is a big improvement on what Montreal had on the shooting pointman spot for the majority of the season.

I don’t anticipate elite goaltending from the Habs, but I expect more consistent goaltending and less complete meltdown periods of giving up 15-25 shots.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 20, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Balsillie has destroyed this team, they will never win again.

by Zombie Jesus on Sep 20, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Bubble team

Nothing more. Nothing less.
Gainey better hope this works because I doubt the Molson kiddies are going to be as patient as Uncle George was with the scrape into the playoffs and win one round results that he’s delivered so far.
I’m not optimistic at all this year.

by Exit716 on Sep 20, 2009 8:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Gainey is getting a $3.1m retention bonus when the Molson sale is approved, so I think the Molsons will want to keep him around for a little while, or at least gave a good approval of what he did this offseason.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 20, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to say where they’ll end up. Clearly, the talent level is higher than last year, and higher still than the 07-08 season (and that year they had no trouble with secondary scoring). They’re stronger at forward and significantly stronger at defenseman. But the question is how it will gel together.

The safe prediction is for them to finish second, maybe third in the division, and 6-8 in the final standings (this is certainly a playoff team, given that last year’s also was DESPITE all the injuries and trouble). But it’s hard to say with all certainty where they’ll end up. The ceiling is certainly very high, and they could finish first in the Northeast, or even the conference. Or the bottom could fall out and they could be looking at 12th place.

I’m optimistic though. I think they’re going to be much improved 5-on-5 and they have the tools to make a strong power play unit — with Cammalleri replacing Kovalev’s production — and that combination should make them a strong team overall. But very difficult to predict. A lot does ride on the goaltending situation, but at least Montreal has two options that could work.

by MathMan on Sep 21, 2009 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs