Should they go back to junior? One of hockey's eternal dilemmas

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 11:59 AM CDT Comment 27 comments

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

My friends over at Mile High Hockey, the local Avs blog, have been debating what to do with Matt Duchene the past few weeks, as the 18-year-old junior star either has to return to the Brampton Battalion or play the season in the NHL. In the latest entry to the debate, DDC examines how players who went right from the draft to the NHL fared in their careers.

It's an interesting study in how productive these young players are — not very, given they average 66 games played and 27 points — but I really don't think that the early year in the NHL hurting players' development is the issue here. What teams should instead be concerned with is burning the first year of someone like Duchene's entry-level contract, bringing them to unrestricted free agency at a younger age.

The thing is, the Avs really don't have a hope this season. Whether Duchene serves up the average 27 points, or double that, won't make a difference in where they finish, and if anything, may help them to a higher spot in the standings and a worse draft pick next June. Colorado won't make the playoffs or contend this season, and likely not next either, and with Duchene on a reasonable contract for only the first three years of his career, why waste one of them in a lost year anyway?

There are a ton of players and teams in this spot this season, as Canadian junior players drafted in the past two years can't play in the AHL and are in an either/or spot of the NHL or back to junior. High profile players in this situation include Alex Pietrangelo in St. Louis, Cody Hodgson in Vancouver, Tyler Myers in Buffalo, Evander Kane in Atlanta, Duchene in Colorado and many, many others who've yet to be sent down.

Unless they're ready to step in and make a major difference on a playoff team, I'd send them all down, especially considering the huge contracts young restricted free agents are signing at 21 and 22 these days.

It's not often talked about, but I think a significant factor in the Penguins' Stanley Cup win last June was the fact they had two of their highest minute playing forwards — Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal — both taking home far less salary than their contributions merited. Malkin was 20 before he hit the NHL, Staal only 18, but the fact is that having them cheap at the right time really paid off.

And that's what Colorado should aim for.

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Absolutely agree. You’d much rather have a kid’s 21 or 22 year old season for cheap than his 18 or 19 year old season.

Which is why Edmonton was so foolish to keep Gagner up the last two years (bitter Knights fan here) and why the Leafs would be committing exactly the same error in keeping Kadri. (also annoyingly enough, messing with my junior team yet again…we develop too many top players!)

by Phil23 on Sep 23, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Though to be honest, I think Kadri will be sent down to the Knights. It is tempting to say keep him (though as an ex-Londoner and a follower of the Knights I can understand your pain) since he’s shown amazing skill, but he is not physically ready to handle the rigors of an NHL season.

Being a Leaf fan here requires one to be sufficiently lubricated... and truculent!

by stucky on Sep 23, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kadri's back!

Fortunately, and thank goodness the Leafs came to their senses.

by Jevant on Sep 29, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You nailed it James

Well done, wish more members of the media would talk about this.

by lordosis on Sep 23, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

And further to all that, it really does just boggle my mind that GM’s don’t see this obvious fact. It’s like they’re cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Is the pressure to win now really that intense that so many of these GM’s waste their young star’s cheap contract years?

Basically I think a case can be made that NO 18 or 19 year old ought to play in the NHL unless the team is at the point in it’s success cycle where that particular player’s contribution will make a monumental impact on the team’s success or failure.

by Phil23 on Sep 23, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Is the pressure to win now really that intense that so many of these GM’s waste their young star’s cheap contract years?

Of course it is, just like in any sport. A GM doesn’t pave the way for his successor. Just like in any career, a GM does everything in his power to remain on the job. If making the playoffs, even to be bounced in four straight, means it ensures he gets to keep his job for another year, he’ll do whatever it takes to get his team into the playoffs. Like coaches, GMs know they’re hired only to be fired. Whatever problem arises in the future, well, they’ll either deal with it when the time comes, or more likely, let the new guy deal with that headache.

Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell

by bkblades on Sep 24, 2009 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

a GM does everything in his power to remain on the job. If making the playoffs, even to be bounced in four straight, means it ensures he gets to keep his job for another year, he’ll do whatever it takes to get his team into the playoffs

-Don Waddel

The 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche: Aiming for the Charity Point
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Sep 24, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet half of the Atlanta ownership group wouldn’t even know what Waddel looks like.

I've seen enough to know that I've seen too much.

by Smoboy41 on Sep 25, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If a player is ready for the NHL, I think it’s important to let him develop at the highest level possible, regardless of the situation. The cap situation should only be one aspect of the decision, and you’re making it out to be the most important factor. Some of these guys have $3m+ cap hits, so I don’t see them as particularly cheap if they’re scoring only 27 points. In fact, having them have a year in which they score 27 points could make their cap hit lower when their next contract comes around.

It’s about developing these guys into quality players as quickly as possible. Yes, the desire to win is that important. Most GM’s don’t have much longer than the 3 year entry level deal the player gets before their ass is on the line.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 23, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

BTW, I’ll add this: Malkin and Staal were on entry level deals last year, but you forget that when they first made the team, Pittsburgh had finished 2nd last in the NHL the previous season, so they ARE in a similar situation to Colorado is with Duchene. No one thought they’d win the cup in 3 years at that point.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 23, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They came at the tail end of the team’s development cycle, with Crosby, Fleury, etc. already in place. You could certainly see this team headed for big things.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Statsny is no slouch. Wolski and Stewart aren’t too bad, either.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 23, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce, if you score 27 points, you ain’t making $3-million. Good luck hitting any of those entry-level bonuses with production like that.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And again, then I don’t see why it’s a problem to “use up” that year of his contract then.

If a teenager is ready to play against men, then don’t send him back to play against teenagers. If you think the World Juniors will still be good for him, send him to the WJC’s from your NHL team, and then take him back.

I honestly don’t know what Luca Sbisa learned playing for Lethbridge last year after he got sent back other than he was better than every player in the league. The lockout year was especially bad… Ryan Getzlaf just coasted the entire year, he knew he was too good for the league. Good thing Burke and Carlyle were his bosses the next year and whipped him into gear quickly.

Coaching is better in the NHL, too. If you want to teach good habits, your coaches should be more qualified to do so than some guy stuck at a job in Sudbury, Baie-Comeau or Prince George.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 23, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bring Duchene in at 19 then. There’s no reason to do it at 18 in my mind… he’s not going to get significantly better than he would playing in juniors.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Hodgson? He’s in a tough situation since he hasn’t impressed coming off a back injury. I’d still give him the 9 game trial just based on where he was pre-injury.

I’m not saying all these guys are NHL ready. I have no idea if they are or not. But if you determine they’re NHL ready, then play them. For what it’s worth, Duchene didn’t impress me when I saw the one WJC Red/White game this summer, but fellow Avs prospect Ryan O’Reilly did.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 23, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hodgson’s tougher given he’s older. But I’ve also heard he’s been struggling in camp and preseason, so that’s a judgement call the team has to make.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Canucks are also an awful lot closer to the “win now” stage than Colorado.

Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com

by James Mirtle on Sep 23, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duchene

Oh, please, please, please send Matt back to Brampton. As a Battalion season ticket holder, he’s the team’s only hope to make the playoffs.

Seriously, if an 18 year old plays 6 or 7 minutes a game in the NHL, he’s better off in junior where he can develop for one more year.

In Duchene’s case, he may be the most important key to Team Canada’s World Junior fortunres this year.

That said, the Avs are so bad that Duchene may be able to make a positive and immediate contribution.

by John Richardson on Sep 23, 2009 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Duchene is going to be the Avs #2 center, he’s not going back.

The 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche: Aiming for the Charity Point
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Sep 23, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Duchene will play top-6 minutes for the Avs if they decide to keep him for the season. As DDC pointed out in his post at MHH, the impact on career production is nil. If the payer is ready to play, they should play.

As for the cap implications, you have to remember that this is a first year GM in Colorado who has a boatload of cap space next season. He could easily stay on the cheap for a couple of more seasons, building slowly within the organization (which has some stud defensemen and possibly a goalie-of-the-future who are all one-to-three years away), and still have the cap space to easily keep Duchene in the fold in three years time. He’d still have room to sign some front-line talent and with the likely wealth of high draft pick talent that would result from such an approach. They could easily see developing Duchene at the NHL level immediately as the right choice for the franchise long-term.

2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: Nothing Inspirational Comes to Mind

by Mike @ MHH on Sep 23, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Expect some hardcore slicing in the D-men cap next year!

26 Card Jet

by Tommelot on Sep 23, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody’s mentioned that the decision whether to keep a marginal teen with the NHL club is often a marketing decision.
Detroit doesn’t need to rush its latest 1st-round pick because ticket sales don’t depend on it.
Colorado – with all due respect to those consecutive sellouts in the recent past – isn’t in the same boat.

by garth the hoser on Sep 23, 2009 7:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Detroit’s first rounder is generally 26th to 30th overall. They tend not to make the NHL for a couple of years at least, for good reason.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Sep 24, 2009 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So is it your contention that Duchene is a marginal teen?

2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche: Nothing Inspirational Comes to Mind

by Mike @ MHH on Sep 24, 2009 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think that each team should get a one-player exemption who can be stuck in the AHL instead of the CHL. Kids who struggle in their nine-game grace period, but are clearly too good for junior, can find a happy medium, learning to play against men and being challenged, instead of stagnating in junior.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Sep 24, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs