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FTR Roundtable: Phaneuf in TO, PA Settlement, and More

Every Monday, the FTR crew will review the biggest hockey news from the past week.

-Brian Burke makes a ton of moves to bring in Jean-Sebastian Giguere and Dion Phaneuf. Thoughts?
Mike: Assuming that Tomas Kaberle will be gone, Phaneuf is a high risk/high reward gamble. He's faced (and somewhat wilted) under media scrutiny before, but now the spotlight becomes even more intense. If Phaneuf can regain his promising form, Toronto wins the deal based on getting the most talented player. Right now, Toronto can't score and they can't play defense, so it can't get much worse, right? This amps up the pressure on Phil Kessel even more, though he'll get even less support than before. As for Giguere, he's certainly better than Vesa Toskala, but wildly inconsistent since the Cup run. Giguere is a position goalie, which means that he plays well under a system -- but, um, that's not really happening right now in Toronto, huh? I see the phrase "shell shocked" appearing in headlines soon.

Bob: I really like the Blake and Toskala for Giguere deal.  This seems like a fair attempt to solve problems for both teams.  I would not count out Giguere, he might get hot and surprise people.  Glad I don't have to pay him 7 million USD though.  Blake was overpaid from the get-go, but might find new life out West.  Regarding the other deal, Calgary could afford to trade Phaneuf, but did they get enough in return?  Hagman and Stajan are decent, but Stajan is unrestricted this summer.  White is pretty solid and is an RFA.  But if Phaneuf returns to his former imposing self, the Leafs will have won this trade.  It will be interesting to see what happens.   

Cory: In truth, rebuilding the Leafs is much different than the job Burke had to in Anaheim. He was blessed with some very good young talent with the Ducks, and in Toronto the cupboards were stunningly bare. The Giguere deal shouldn't impact the team much in the long term, since he's signed only through next season, but Burke's success in The Big Smoke may very well be hitched to Phaneuf. This move will lead to a couple things: 1) Toronto should be quite bad the rest of the way, boosting Boston's chances at landing a top-three pick courtesy the Kessel trade; 2) This likely means the end of Tomas Kaberle in the blue and white. The D is loaded with Phaneuf, Mike Komisarek, Luke Schenn, Jeff Finger and Francois Beauchemin all inked to multi-year deals with a combined cap hit of $21.3 million. Burke cannot afford to keep Kaberle ($4.25M cap hit) as well.

Star-divide

-Injuries are piling up for Olympic players. If a player misses the Olympic tournament, is this a blessing in disguise?

FrankD: I've been saying all year over at Pensburgh that I wished Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar and Fleury could just use the Olympics as a sort of downtime.  For two straight seasons now they've made runs to the Stanley Cup Finals.  Little injuries have popped up here and there, even a surgery or two along the way.  I'm sure the same can be said for a lot of teams.  Detroit fans are probably thinking the same thing.  But to ask these guys to turn around and say "Thanks but no thanks" to there country is definitely a no go.  I'm also not suggesting any of those guys get injured, but it'd be nice if they used the downtime to heal or rest up.  So yes, depending on the team and severity of the injury, I'd say a minor injury could be perceived as a blessing in disguise.

Cory Lavalette: It's not a blessing for the player, but may be for the team. The Olympic tournament is high-impact and not only can wear-and-tear impact a player, but they also risk injuring themselves. I'm sure there are several GMS and coaches — even players — that would love to regenerate during the shutdown.

Mike: As a Sharks fan, I see my four of my top-six forwards, both my goalies, and my top defensive pair going to the Olympics. Every key component is at risk for injury. While I love Olympic hockey for its unique competition and skill set, I really hate the notion of putting a team's best players at risk. Doug Wilson has said that he finds the benefits outweigh the drawbacks, especially since it's just a trip up to Vancouver, but I gotta think that any team that is in the playoff hunt won't be too upset if their star player is hurt before the Olympic break.
 
Joe F: I would say that it is a blessing in disguise. I remember last Winter Olympics in Italy when Henrik Lundqvist ran with Sweden all the way to the gold and when Jagr played with the Czech Republic (I believe they won a Bronze medal) they came back tired and worn out. And then the Rangers season suffered because of it. So yes I would say that if the injury is minor it's a blessing in disguise. 

Bob:  I vote no, it's not a blessing in disguise.  Winning can be contagious and if a player has a huge run with a team during the Olympics, they can continue being hot once they return home.  They can bring that confidence back with them.  Playing in the Olympics is a dream for most of these guys and I hate to see any of them miss it because of a minor or major injury.  Let's face it, injuries can happen anytime, while kicking around a soccer ball during a pregame scrum or riding in a golfcart during the offseason.   

-Niklas Kronwall returns to the Detroit lineup, Johan Franzen is cleared for practice, and the Wings have just about all of their key pieces back. Where does this leave them with some 25 games left in the season?

FrankD: It definitely leaves them with a confidence boost, that's for sure.  But it's going to take more than confidence for the Wings to get into the playoffs.  Time for them to start clicking and making up for all those injuries with a few wins.  With the exception of the top two teams it's still a pretty close race.  Nothing says the Red Wings can't make it, but these guys returning from injuries definitely says they have a better chance than before.

Cory Lavalette: I don't know why anyone would count out the Wings. Not only do they get two key players back, but this is a team that knows how to win in the postseason. Are there questions in net? Sure, but it seems there always are in Motown. Detroit's power play conversion rate is down more than 8 percent from last year. Not only did Franzén have 11 power play goals last season, but he helps create goals for others with his play in front of the net. Couple that will Kronwall's all-situations contributions and the Wings should be feared.

Mike: The problem is that the guys coming back from injury usually need a month to really get into game shape after the adrenaline wears off a few games in (see: Kessel, Phil). I don't think anyone can discount the Wings based on the top-to-bottom skill they have in their lineup, and experience is a great x-factor to have on your side. Their biggest issue is whether or not they have enough in the tank to make it to the post-season. Once they get there, you can throw the seedings out as everything is reset. They've just gotta hope that Jimmy Howard doesn't have any prolonged lulls.
 
Joe F: I would have to agree with Mike on this one, the key to an injury is not being back in the line-up it's getting back in shape over the next few games. Regardless Detroit is was too good of a team talent wise to count out and they most definitely have the pieces in place for a nice little run to the playoffs (again). I thin that Franzen's addition will help their power play quite a bit and how can having Kronwall back not be positive? Look out for the Wings, in my book. 

Bob: Winning the division is probably too much to ask, but the Wings should make it to the postseason. Will they make a deal before the trade deadline?

-At what point do bubble teams throw in the towel and start trading their players for future assets?

FrankD: Good question. I guess the best answer would be the trade deadline, or maybe a day or two before it when teams start to really ask themselves, "Where are we going this year and is it worth keeping some of these guys?"

Cory Lavalette: I'd say it depends on your expiring assets. You don't want to wind up like Florida last year and get little for Jay Bouwmeester in the offseason as compared to the windfall that would've come back at the deadline. I think if you might peddle bottom half forwards or defensemen for a small return, you can wait until the last minute. But if you have a hot commodity whose re-signing is in question — looking at you, Atlanta — you need to explore your options and begin the bidding as early as possible.

Mike: Even if you're a bubble team, I think it all comes down to where your players are in terms of contract and age. If you're fighting for a playoff spot because grizzled veterans are overachieving in the twilight of their career, I think it's time to get as much in return as possible. If you've got a mix of young prospects and free-agent veterans, I think the smart thing is to move one or two impending free agents but maintain the competitive core. If young players can get a taste of the playoffs, it can do wonders for their confidence and understanding of what it takes.
 
Joe F: It depends on the team really. I can almost guarantee you that the Rangers will be buyers at the deadline, even though if I were the GM I would probably look towards the future. But in general I would have to say that the Olympic break is probably where every GM looks around the room and says: "what can I do with this team this year? Would a player or two help in any way, and how far would they take us?"

Bob:  Most bubble teams will not throw in the towel.  The lure of extra playoff cash is very strong and it even pushes some GM's to make deals they should not make.  In some cases though, a team can accomplish two things with one trade, send away an experienced vet which will help out a team on the cusp, and receive a promising prospect who can not only help a team in the future, but also might be able to help them out in the present.  The prospect might not have had a chance to play for the higher ranked team, but will have a chance on the bubble team and might prove to be a good immediate acquisition.

-Does the Paul Kelly settlement bring any sense of closure to the PA's troubles or are they still in a state of chaos?
Cory Lavalette: Not until someone is back front-and-center running the PA. It's a scary situation because you can sense the animosity brewing in the union, and you hope that the anger is geared inward at what's gone on and how it can be fixed rather than on future labor negotiations. The next hire for the NHLPA is, in a word, crucial.

Mike: I say chaos. The Kelly settlement checks an item off a to-do list but it doesn't really do much for overall progress. A lot of finger-pointing has gone around the PA, but Kelly seemed to do a good job of being a pragmatist with an open mind. That's necessary after the Goodenow era, and I just don't see how the PA puts itself in a position of bargaining strength for impending CBA negotiations.

Bob:  I spoke with Erik Cole a couple of weeks ago regarding a variety of union matters, (Cole is the Hurricanes player's rep), and he told me things are running smoothly at the NHLPA office.  Settling with Paul Kelly was one of the objectives they had prioritized and it seems they can cross that issue off their list.  Cole said that most, if not all of the reps have voted on various concerns in unison, (30-0 vote), so it seems union members are acting in accord on at least some issues.  Cole also said that the executive committee was being notified on a daily basis of happenings at headquarters. But while the union might not be in a total state of chaos, until they get a new Director they can rally behind, they still need to get better organized and informed about the possible disagreements in the upcoming CBA.  They are far from being stable.   

-Does Ilya Kovalchuk become a high-priced rental for a contender, an offensive threat for a bubble team, or a gamble for a rebuilding team?

FrankD: I'll say high-priced rental for a contender, and I think he knows it too.  Kovi would add one hell of a punch to any contending team, whoever that may be and whatever they may be willing to give up in exchange.  I can't see a bubble team taking a huge chance on him because the risk of not making the playoffs even with him in the lineup may outweigh the price.  As for a rebuilding team, I'd imagine they'd be more interested in keeping their picks and/or core players and maybe make a run at Kovi during the offseason rather than tossing out some offers and ultimately losing picks/prospects AND the rights to Kovi by the end of it all.

Joe F: To agree with Frank here I think that he is going to a contender. When you think about it Kovalchuk doesn't want to re-sign with Atlanta unless they are conders, so why (even if he were traded to a rebuilding team) would he re-sign there? I just don't see a team like the Oilers taking a risk on a guy (and giving up a world of future to boot) for about 18 games and then loose him for nothing. My destinations would probably by Calgary, LA, Chicago and maybe the Rangers (I don't want this to happen but things are leaning towards the Rangers making a move and I just can't get this gut feeling out of my stomach that Sather is gonna trade the farm for Kovy.)

Cory Lavalette: I agree with Frank. He's the 2008 Marian Hossa of this year's free agent sweepstakes. But I wouldn't rule out Los Angeles, who may not be a true Cup contender this year  even with Kovalchuk, because they have the pieces to pony up and the cap space to throw money at a high-priced free agent this offseason. With the Jack Johnson debacle, he could be a valued piece to a package that brings Atlanta's sniper to Hollywood. But my gut still tells me Chicago — who needs to shed salary for next season anyway — or maybe Calgary will be the main players.

Mike: From what I've read, it sounds like Kovalchuk would have leaned towards staying in Atlanta if their ownership wasn't so messed up. Since it looks like that won't happen -- and there's word that Don Waddell will only trade to a team that won't negotiate an extension -- I think it becomes a bidding war among the top tier of each conference. However, for a young bubble team looking to make a major move, it does seem like a reasonable gamble: trade for Kovalchuk now, sell him on your franchise progress, and offer him the big paycheck come July 1. Just cause the Thrashers dictate that you can't negotiate with him doesn't mean that players and coaches can't woo him during the playoff run.

Bob:  I'm going to stick with what I said in the "Rumors From The Rink" last week, Kovalchuk will stay in Atlanta. 

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