The Hitch Firing: System or Goaltending?
Ken Hitchcock's coaching reputation brings a system considered to be hard-nosed, disciplined, and structured. It's not a particularly fun system to watch or play, but it's effective when everyone buys in -- and even during this season's troubles, you heard word out of Columbus that "Ken Hitchcock hockey" would still be "Blue Jacket hockey." That's all lip service now as Hitchcock hits the proverbial NHL unemployment line, but was it really his fault?
There's an old adage that says you can teach defense to anyone, and the idea behind this is that defense is effort, system, and discipline. It helps if you have a Nicklas Lidstrom on the blueline, but it's not necessary -- just ask Jacques Lemaire about this.
That's what makes the sudden downfall of Ken Hitchcock and the Columbus Blue Jackets surprising. Their blueline isn't the most intimidating on paper, and they've had some injuries, but history has shown us that anyone that is willing can play defense. But a closer look at the stats show add a twist to this.
The running joke with defensive coaches and their goaltenders is that the a goalie's great stats are a product of the system. Are they? If you have a good defensive system, your penalty kill and shots-against should be consistent. Let's look at the last three seasons in Columbus:
3.19 GAA
81.7 PK
29.8 SA/G
2.55 GF
2008-09
2.72 GAA
82.1 PK
27.8 SA/G
2.68 GF
2007-08
2.56 GAA
83.3 PK
27.4 SA/G
2.32 GF
There's a slight trend upward from Hitchcock's first full season to the second season, but all the defensive stats skyrocket the wrong way this season. Now, let's compare offensive stats, when Columbus's goal support dropped slightly this season -- something you don't want to happen when the goals-against increases, but it's not the worst goal support in the league at 20th out of 30. It's definitely possible to be competitive at that level.
Then there's the goaltending. Steve Mason's sophomore slump has been well documented, but here are the hard numbers: in his rookie year, Mason's save percentage was .916 while facing a team average of 27.8 shots per game (Mason's GAA was 2.29); this season, it's .896 against a team average 29.8 shots per game (Mason's GAA is 3.28). That increase of two shots per game shouldn't create such a jump in goals, and the Columbus penalty kill -- a good indicator of how the team is responding to the system -- is facing a negligible difference and sits at 15th in the league.
Consider this, too: Pascal Leclaire had a .920 save percentage in Hitchcock's first full year in Columbus. Had the team generated a little bit more goal support (2.32 GF) that year, the Blue Jackets would have been much more competitive.
Does the system make the goaltender or does the goaltender make the system? In most cases, it's a little bit of both, and if there were hard stats on rebound control, that would help. Without that, you can just say that when a save percentage is below .900 for an NHL goalie, you'll have to blame a lot more than the system. Let's play with backup goalie Mathieu Garon's numbers a bit. If his 2.86 GAA was projected on to the team for the season, the Blue Jackets goals-allowed total would bump up into the 20th overall spot. This wouldn't have vaulted Columbus into contention for the Central Division title, but they would have been much closer to .500 and probably within striking distance of a playoff spot, all with the potential upside of a Mason hot streak similar to his rookie campaign. Remember, despite all their troubles, the Blue Jackets' record is 22-27-9 -- not great, but certainly not the epic disaster that Edmonton is facing.
Not all of the blame falls on Mason, but we've already established that the team's shots-against and penalty kill numbers aren't that different from last year. The other part of the blame comes with the Columbus's anemic offense, where Rick Nash is on pace for a decent-but-unspectacular campaign and Derrick Brassard is way off from his pre-injury rookie pace. Coaching is obviously one way to get the offense going, but sometimes it's just that guys aren't feeling it in any particular season. If the Jackets saw a little more secondary scoring and better sophomore campaign from Mason (one that didn't necessarily equal his stellar rookie year, just something better than what's happened) and Hitchcock might still have a job.
Is that Hitch's fault? I would say not necessarily, but the easiest way to shake up a team is to fire the coach. I can't imagine that this firing brings the secondary scoring in line, though, so this screams to me of one of two things: either the players tuned Hitchcock out in addition to Mason's troubles or Scott Howson felt pressure elsewhere. Me, I would have just rode out this season and gone forward with at least a month into next season to see how the team fared in a fresh start, especially Mason.
It's too bad, too, as Hitchcock is probably the only Civil War buff in the NHL coaching fraternity. There was a certain sense of belonging with his arrival; not only was he one of the few outsiders who actually knew what a Blue Jacket historically was, he was ready to challenge Rick Nash into a complete player and bring the fledgling franchise into respectability. Alas, you know what they say about the best laid plans, and sometimes, you can't fight fate -- especially when a goalie is facing a sophomore slump of epic proportions.
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It sucks but somthing had to give.
I liked Hitch and i’m sad to see him go but if things turn around it was well worth it. This season, especially after the way we started, has been extremely frustrating. I’ve spent a lot of time screaming at the TV the last few months.
by shortnorthjacket on Feb 4, 2010 7:20 AM CST reply actions
Hitch and CBJ ticket sales
If the team held on with Hitch until the end of the season, they would have seen a huge drop in season ticket renewals. I liked Hitch and agree that he brought structure and poise to the team, but it wasn’t working this year.
And by the way, he won’t need unemployment benefits. He gets paid $1.3 million for the next two seasons.
Plus, now Filatov might come back. Of course, if he’s the same disinterested player he was at the WJC’s, that may not be a good thing (although his coach hated him there, too).
Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.
When Lemaire was hired here in Minnesota, I thought it was a bad idea. I’m very skeptical that a tough, defense first and close to only, approach is a road to be successful. What it does is to make a bad team look better than it really is, not make it good. Partly, this is due to people looking at goals for/goals against by the difference between them, rather than the ratio. A team that plays low scoring games is going to have a much narrower differential than one that plays in high scoring games, even if the ratio is the same. Ratio is a better predictor of future success.
It’s also due to the fact that, if the goal differential is narrower, there is a greater likelihood for fluke outcomes. One lucky or unlucky bounce is more likely to determine who wins or loses a game if they are low scoring. This has a tendency to push the record of a team with a defensive system towards .500, from whichever side it would be based solely upon relative talent.
All of this means that, if you have a bad team, you’re likely to get a significant improvement in how the team performs, and even greater improvement in the popular perception of its performance, if you install a hard-nosed defensive system. That’s true even if there is no real improvement in the quality of the team. However, the team isn’t really any closer to making the playoffs, or succeeding there, than they were before.
I think there was a stretch in the early to mid 1990s when the installation of the new generation of defensive systems really did make a difference. What happened is that everyone around the league adopted at least parts of them, and learned how to play against them. That removed the inherent advantage of using them, and eliminated any competitive advantage for using them.
That hasn’t led to the end of teams trying it, though. One part of that is that, while fans love watching scoring, everyone seems to believe that offense is a manifestation of raw talent, while defense is a manifestation of character and moral strength. You can’t teach offense, but anyone who is willing to learn can play defense. Playing defense means sacrificing your individual game for the good of the team. It sounds great, despite being complete hooey, and so it’s a great bone to throw to the fanbase, until you have to fire the coach because it doesn’t actually lead anywhere.
by J. Michael Neal on Feb 4, 2010 10:54 AM CST reply actions
One of the most refreshing things Todd McLellan brought to the Sharks was the attitude that you COULD teach offense. Maybe not dazzling puck-handling skills, but you could tell grinders to crash the crease, teach blueliners when to jump into the play, or preach to shoot the puck 35+ a night. I wish more coaches thought like that.
GM
It’s the Jackets hiring a guy with a well-known philosophy and then not building a team to fit that philosophy. It’s like they looked at the coaching market before hiring him and said, “Who’s the most successful coach out there?” rather than “Who’s the best coach that fits our org philosophy or that we can adapt for?” This is the Jackets’ Hockey Operations people failing to do their jobs.
Could it be at that point that the Jackets’ ops people’s philosophy was to get the Jackets into the post-season and they saw Hitchcock as the best candidate to do that? That’s less of a failure to do their jobs than it is a very short-term, narrow-minded philosophy.
If they did, thats a failing on their part again. Whatever philosophy your organization is planning around, it inherently has to lead to the playoffs, because its supposed to make your team successful. “Just make the playoffs” as a philosophy would be a failing in and of itself, because it lacks any forward thought to get from “make the playoffs” to “win a game in the playoffs” to “contend for the Cup”. If they wanted an offensively exciting team, they should’ve hired the right personnel for that, acquired the right players, and used THAT to make the playoffs. Instead, they just kind of ended up somewhere in the middle, and nothing good happens when you’re in the middle without a plan.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
Hitch wears out his welcome after awhile. It just so happens that the Jackets also had goalie. Bad combination…
Dallas Stars 4 Life: Stars Blogging From Hockeyville, Iowa
I'm a girl. The screen name can be misleading, I understand.
by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Feb 4, 2010 1:54 PM CST reply actions
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