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Breaking Down the Kovalchuk Deal

The New Jersey Devils won the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes, but the return seems to be smaller than what most people expected, especially when the scuttlebutt had a bidding war that would eclipse the Marian Hossa deal (if you recall, that trade included hard working Colby Armstrong, hit-and-miss Erik Christensen, former first founder Angelo Esposito before he blew out his knee, and a 1st round pick).

In this case, the Devils gave up Johnny Oduya -- a reliable defenseman who could munch 18-20 minutes a night but would never be a 40-point guy -- along with rookie Niclas Bergfors, who is having a good, though not spectacular, campaign, prospect Patrice Cormier, and a first round pick..

The a key component to the deal, outside of the 1st-rounder pick, is Patrice Cormier. Even if you don't know prospects, you've probably heard of Cormier as he was involved with an elbow play that led him to a season-long suspension. Outside of that, Cormier was captain of the 2010 Canadian World Junior squad. Gritty and physical, Cormier isn't the most gifted when it comes to his hands, but he can still put the puck in the net. Here's what Hockey's Future had to say about him:

While Cormier may not be the most naturally gifted player, he's about as well-rounded a prospect as the Devils have coming up right now. He possesses both the offensive skill set and defensive acumen to eventually be a two-way force at the next level. Having just signed his first pro contract this summer, Cormier will look to make an impact in training camp, and unless he finds his way onto the Devils roster, he will return to Rimouski for the 2009-10 season, with an eye towards turning pro in 2010-11.

(Hat tip to our SBN brethren Pension Plan Puppets, who Tweeted at 7:53 EST that it was Cormier, not the other names bandied about.)

Bergfors started out stronger, but his play tailed off after the new year -- sorry, Winter Classic day -- but that's to be expected. As an AHL player, Bergfors scored 22 goals in 66 games last season. The former first rounder has 25-goal potential, and it remains to be seen what Bergfors can do outside of Jacques Lemaire's system (and his doghouse, which he'd taken up a part-time residence).

Ah, Jacques Lemaire, or as Marian Gaborik likes to call him, Mr. No Fun. While the Devils could use help outside of Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, I wouldn't think Kovalchuk would fit into the prototypical New Jersey Devil mold. I think Gaborik's time with the Wild will be a good analogy, as Gaborik was constantly frustrated with the lack of creativity, and Kovalchuk hasn't exactly been known for the greatest work ethic or attention to defense.

Because of Kovalchuk's on-again/off-again attitude and Lemaire's demands, I'm somewhat cautious about how this will all work out. The Devils got what they needed, but will the part fit the engine? That remains to be seen.

From Atlanta's side, this seems comparable to the Hossa deal: a roster player (Oduya/Armstrong), a good-but-not-superstar prospect (Cormier/Esposito), and a first rounder with the only difference being Bergfors offering more upside than Erik Christensen. Perhaps the news about Kovalchuk's future salary demands lessened the bidding, even for teams seeking just a rental.

In the meantime, that noise you hear is noted Devils fan (and Mrs. Olli Jokinen nemesis) Greg "Puck Daddy" Wyshynski shouting from the rooftops.

Update: Reaction from Bird Watchers Anonymous.

Update 2: Reaction from In Lou We Trust.

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From Atlanta’s side, this seems comparable to the Hossa deal

I was thinking the same thing.

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by FrankD on Feb 4, 2010 7:57 PM CST reply actions  

Props to you Mike for giving PPP the attention he craves deserves.

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by Jim Schmiedeberg on Feb 4, 2010 8:06 PM CST reply actions  

heh

You had it right the first time :P

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by PPP on Feb 6, 2010 1:48 AM CST up reply actions  

This is why Lou is one of the best ever and why Waddell is one of the worst ever.

The ultimate “well at least we got SOMETHING for him” deals.

"Grind now, shine later." - Wesley Johnson

by Afino on Feb 4, 2010 8:07 PM CST reply actions  

See: Dany Heatley for Milan Michalek, a 2nd and Jonathan Cheechoo

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by Kevin Sellathamby on Feb 4, 2010 8:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I think this is a great deal for the Devils. They really gave up little, and they get someone who will be hungry to have a big spring. If he works out, great. If he doesnt, really no big loss. I think the conventional wisdom will be that he’s highly unlikely to stay in NJD long-term anyway, cause there’s little chance they give him a $10M a year from the Devils. So if thats true, the NJD gave up little.

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by poploser on Feb 4, 2010 8:08 PM CST reply actions  

I question Kovy’s work ethic under a coach like Lemaire. Obviously, he can prove the naysayers wrong, but I get the feeling he’ll be in Lemaire’s doghouse by mid-March, and in turn, Kovy’s attitude will go south.

But hey, Marian Gaborik is working out on Broadway, so you never know!

by Mike Chen on Feb 4, 2010 8:13 PM CST up reply actions  

exactly. if he doesnt work out, the NJD gave up almost nothing. They always seem to find guys like Oduya, and we’re talking about a low 1st-rounder and some potential. There were lots of talk about Atlanta wanting some players who could help them win now…well they really didn’t get that.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

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by poploser on Feb 4, 2010 8:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree.

In fact, I question everything where it concerns Kovalchuck and Lemaire. This does seem like a poor match.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on Feb 4, 2010 9:48 PM CST up reply actions  

How does a team trade away its best prospect, best rookie and first round pick and call it “little”? I agree this is a good trade for the Devils, but they’ll have less next year as a result.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Feb 4, 2010 9:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Their supposedly best prospect is a head case, and the swap of second round picks effectively neutered the loss of the first. The odds that the Devils will get a player in the 31-40 range are not much lower than their odds in the 21-30 range, while a 2nd rounder in the 51-60 range is really quite unlikely to have anything but a cup of tea in the NHL.

by Resolute on Feb 5, 2010 9:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Most are far more excited about Tedenby and Josefson than Cormier. Besides, with his history of bad hits he all but played his way out of any possibility of playing in NJ.

Bergfors hit the wall and was just taking up a roster spot. He is promising and may yet do well in Atlanta, but he wasn’t quite fitting into NJ.

Oduya has been having a pretty subpar year, and that after getting a nice raise the team doesn’t have to pay for underachievement any longer.

As to the picks, they also exchanged 2nd rounders. So Atlanta gets a late first rounder and the Devils trade up from a late 2nd to a much higher 2nd rounder in what is purported to be a pretty deep draft.

The Devils also reacquired Salmela.

I call it giving up little. There are plenty of prospects left in the system that the near future hasn’t been compromised.

by elesias on Feb 5, 2010 9:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Former first founder Angelo Esposito

I found this typo amusing.

Anyways, I think your analysis is spot on. How good Cormier becomes largely determines how good the deal is for Atlanta. It is notable however, that the 1st rounder is in a deeper draft than the Hossa deal.

Also, Lou must really like Salmela to ask for him back…

by HugoAgogo on Feb 4, 2010 8:49 PM CST reply actions  

this could just be one of those “we kinda know him and his agent is the same as Kovalchuk so we’ll take him” throw ins.

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo

by poploser on Feb 4, 2010 8:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Its more likely that Salmela was chosen because Lou and Co have seen some of his development and know what they are getting back (a lower pairing defenseman still yet to reach his prime).

by HugoAgogo on Feb 4, 2010 9:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Is it true the teams are trading 2nd round picks this year too? (I heard that somewhere). If true that makes things exponentially worse for ATL, they’d basicallybe trading up about maybe 10 spots into the back-end of the 1st round.

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by Hooks Orpik on Feb 4, 2010 9:25 PM CST reply actions  

You had to know Lou would get rid of Cormier

He’s not the Devils’ “type” – in a number of ways they’re like the anti-Flyers.

Of course, he certainly managed to maximize his returns…

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Feb 4, 2010 10:02 PM CST reply actions  

Uh, the Devils had Claude Lemieux on two Cup winners.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Feb 4, 2010 10:24 PM CST up reply actions  

True, although the first time was pre-Draper. I guess my impression is that over the last decade the Devils have become much more of a “beat them on the scoreboard” team.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Feb 4, 2010 11:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Claude was plenty dirty pre-Draper hit.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Feb 4, 2010 11:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Claude was always dirty.

It is in his DNA.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on Feb 5, 2010 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually

The Devils didn’t want to give up Cormier. Atlanta pushed for him, and the Devils only moved into the lead of the Derby by adding him to the deal.

As for my shouting from the rooftops: Yeah, it’s a pretty surreal night. There’s much to be decided yet, but for the moment it’s a pretty damn exciting time to be an NJD fan. Well, until the next game, and the trap again. Such is life.

by Wyshynski on Feb 4, 2010 10:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Whatever happens this season, you’re still in the positive — you pissed off Olli Jokinen’s wife!

by Mike Chen on Feb 4, 2010 10:50 PM CST up reply actions  

That top 6 the Devils have can now easily compete with Washington’s.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Feb 4, 2010 11:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I think New Jersey has better goaltending, too. :P

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by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 5, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

“Oh, please, Don, don’t ask me for Cormier! I’d never give him up! Well, I guess if it’s a deal-breaker…”

Depending on Elias’s return, the Devils were already pretty solid contenders. This really is going to put pressure on the Capitals and Penguins to get stronger.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Feb 4, 2010 11:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Best part is, Don Waddell would totally fall for that.

“Boss, you should’ve seen me! They really wanted to keep that Cormier guy, obviously cause he’s so good, right? So I told ’em, I told ’em throw in Cormier or its no deal. I even made like I was gonna hang up the phone, and then that idiot Louie finally said yes! I fleeced ’em good, boss!”

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Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.

by IAmJoe on Feb 5, 2010 4:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Will be fun to watch Kovie play the trap.

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by Bob Wage on Feb 5, 2010 12:43 AM CST up reply actions  

I thought you were a Caps fan!

Wyshynski, you stink!

(kidding, of course – just making you feel at home with a Yahoo-style comment)

"Grind now, shine later." - Wesley Johnson

by Afino on Feb 5, 2010 5:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Come to think of it

With Atlanta’s history of…..on ice thuggery, Cormier’s actually a good fit for that franchise.

All they need to do is bring back Bob Hartley and they’re really in business.

"Grind now, shine later." - Wesley Johnson

by Afino on Feb 5, 2010 5:45 AM CST reply actions  


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