Free agent goalies have limited job options
Free-agent-to-be Marty Turco recently told ESPN's Pierre Lebrun that this was the "year of the goalie" when it came to free agency. Turco was referring to the high number of free agent goalies, but when you looked at the list, the talent wasn't all that impressive. However, free agency is still a high-stakes gamble for Turco, Evgeni Nabokov, and the other "name" goalies as there really aren't too many true starting jobs available. It's a buyer's market for goalies, and you've got about 15 guys applying for jobs when only a handful really need goaltending.
For teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and San Jose Sharks, that's good news. Despite both teams being in a bit of a cap crunch, they can try and be a little tougher in negotiations because there are a number of options out there. On the other hand, goalies can quickly go down the league's list and point to the teams that might need help. The bad news for them, though, is that a lot of teams have their cap space already tied up in goaltending (whether that goaltending is good or bad is another question).
Let's take a look at who's currently slotted to start for each team. A single asterisk indicates a clear opening for a starting role. A double asterisk indicates that the team might be willing to invest in a free agent, then let the best goalie take the job. I've also put RFAs like Carey Price and Antti Niemi as the assumed starter for their respective teams.
Anaheim Ducks: Jonas Hiller
Dallas Stars: Kari Lehtonen
Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick/Jonathan Bernier
Phoenix Coyotes: Ilya Bryzgalov
*San Jose Sharks: Thomas Greiss
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks: Antti Niemi
Columbus Blue Jackets: Steve Mason
Detroit Red Wings: Jimmy Howard / Chris Osgood
Nashville Predators: Pekke Rinne
St. Louis Blues: Jaroslav Halak
Northwest Division
Calgary Flames: Miikka Kiprusoff
Colorado Avalanche: Craig Anderson
Edmonton Oilers: Nikolai Khabibulin
Minnesota Wild: Niklas Backstrom
Vancouver Canucks: Roberto Luongo
Atlantic Division
New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist
New York Islanders: Dwayne Roloson / Rick Dipietro
New Jersey Devils: Martin Brodeur
*Philadelphia Flyers: Brian Boucher
Pittsburgh Penguins: Marc-Andre Fleury
Northeast Division
Boston Bruins: Tukka Rask / Tim Thomas
Buffalo Sabres: Ryan Miller
Montreal Canadiens: Carey Price
**Ottawa Senators: Brian Elliott
Toronto Maple Leafs: Jean-Sebastian Giguere
Southeast Division
**Atlanta Thrashers: Ondrej Pavelec
Carolina Hurricanes: Cam Ward
Florida Panthers: Tomas Vokoun
**Tampa Bay Lightning: Mike Smith
**Washington Capitals: Semyon Varlamov
Now, when we step back and look at this list as a whole, the two big openings for starters are in San Jose and Philadelphia. San Jose's not going to go into battle with just Thomas Greiss; similarly, Philadelphia needs much more than just Brian Boucher. That's two slots for definitive #1 starting jobs. In San Jose's case, the goal might be to platoon with Greiss, the German national team goalie, but Greiss hardly got any play behind Evgeni Nabokov, and it would make more sense to start balancing the load in his direction rather than throwing him to the wolves. In Philadelphia's case, Boucher's tried to be a starter before but his inconsistency has created too many headaches for that many games. In short, Boucher is the perfect backup.
The second-tier of goaltending needs come from teams that may have an option but it's not ideal. These include Ottawa, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Each of these teams might start the season with the players listed above as their starter. In a case like this, the teams might opt for a seasoned veteran as a backup that can be relied upon in case things go wrong. That opens up four budget-friendly slots.
Between the guarantee starting jobs and the second-tier jobs, that's only really six goaltending openings.
Keep in mind that a team like Dallas, which has committed big numbers to Kari Lehtonon, still needs a back-up goalie. It's just that their starting situation has been clearly defined, and the back-up role could be filled from either within or through free agency. There are a number of teams like this and it's no guarantee for a job for a free agent goalie.
So let's return to that free agent goalie list. You've got Evgeni Nabokov as the big fish, the still-got-it number one goalie with fairly limited options. You've got Marty Turco, who's trying to reclaim his role and reputation at age 35. You've got Jose Theodore, who had a pretty good bounce-back year but saw limited playoff action. You've also got Dan Ellis and Chris Mason, players that are in that gray area of whether or not they can consistently provide elite goaltending. Ray Emery should be included in this mix, but his injury history puts him as a question mark.
Not counting Emery, that's already five guys that could possibly command anywhere from $2 million to $5 million. In addition, there's a plethora of "maybe" goaltending: Vesa Toskala, Martin Biron, Antero Niittymaki, Alex Auld, Andrew Raycroft, and so on. And we're not even counting guys who might be traded, like Tim Thomas.
If you put this all together, you can quickly see that it's really a buyer's market. Yesterday, I speculated that the San Jose Sharks were probably negotiating with Nabokov at a low-ball hometown discount, and when you look at the openings and the job applicants, why not? The Sharks have plenty to offer in terms of talent, market, and organization, and in the meantime, Nabokov's choices are really limited. For goaltenders that want to play on a winner, the target is San Jose, Philadelphia, and Washington, as Ottawa, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay are all in different stages of transition.
Hockey columnists have used the term "musical chairs" when looking at this year's free agent goalie crop, and a closer look shows that this is an apt description. If I'm a goalie, I'm telling my agent to just eat the lower bids and get something lined up. Making $3 million instead of $4 million isn't that bad of a gig when you consider the alternatives: KHL and other European leagues or working out on your own while hoping for someone to get a season-ending injury.
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Ottawa
In all fairness, I don’t think Ottawa will be looking at the UFA market in this case. With both Elliott and Leclarie locked in, and very little cap space to play with, the numbers just don’t add up.
Instead, I think you’ll see them give both guys a chance in training camp and hope someone steals the show. If last season is any indication though, Clouston will give Elliott a much longer rope than Leclaire.
This
Ottawa’s situation is more like the Islanders, and they’re looking for one guy to really step up. Elliott’s too young to give up on, and Leclaire’s making too much to deal even if the Senators wanted to give up on him, so Ottawa’s goaltending is probably set.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 18, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I’ve got to think the Capitals run with Varlamov/Neuvirth after Neuvirth won his 2nd straight Calder Cup, but I suppose anything could happen.
I’d include Montreal on the list of teams where there could be work but it’s not ideal… Price only played 41 games last year. Even if he’s up in the low 50s next year as a result of Halak’s absence, that’s 30 starts that could be available.
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I could see the Caps getting a veteran as a safety net, then going with a three-headed monster until things sort themselves out.
With Price’s cap hit — assuming he gets $2 – 4 mil — I put the Habs on that third tier like Dallas where they’ll need to fill in some holes but won’t be willing to commit big bucks for a pseudo-starter because the cap space has already been taken up.
I really doubt the Caps are going to add a goaltender. The team has a lot of confidence in both Varlamov and Neuvirth (as well as Braden Holtby, who ended up getting a lot of games in Hershey when Varlamov was injured and Neuvirth was called up to the show). That, and goaltending is far from the most glaring deficiency on the Caps: they’re going to be shoring up their depth at center and adding a top-4 D-man with what cap space they have available.
With the wealth of free agent options out there, and the dearth of starting jobs, there’s always the possibility of a late-season signing in the case of an emergency, too (similar to what Carolina did with Manny Legace this year).
Oh, and another name for your “maybe” list: Manny Fernandez. He probably isn’t likely to find work in this market, but he hasn’t signed with a new team, and he’s had plenty of time to rehab his wonky back.
"Ovechkin, what is good in life?"
"To crush your enemies. To see them driven before you. And to hear the lamentations of their captain."
Unless the Habs go with a REALLY long term deal for Price, I doubt he gets more than $2m. He made $850k last year plus a couple of hundred grand in bonuses (didn’t reach his full bonuses that could’ve pushed him to $2.2m), and he has little leverage other than waiting for a RFA offer, something he’s much less inclined to do now that Halak is gone.
$2m for Price (let’s just use that round number) puts them in a position where they can probably offer $1.5-$2m for a Biron, Nittymaki, or possibly even Ellis/Mason if they get left out initially and get desperate (like Biron last year).
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by Bruce Peter on Jun 18, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
'Year of the Goalie'
I know this summer looks crazy, but to me it looks like an extension of last summer’s pretty flooded market of musical chairs. Does anyone see this situation getting better, from the goalies’ bargaining power point of view?
Along with the whole Ken Holland “it’s not worth paying if you can’t get a top-five goalie” theory, I think we’re seeing the effects of standardized video/drill training at this position creating a flood of more NHL-caliber goalies than there are job openings. The result of two decades of butterfly development.
Reflexes and elite athleticism are still of course the essential foundation, but after that a huge part of the position is positioning, and once an elite athlete has the (fairly standardized) positioning down, unlike for an offensive skater, there is only so much personal creativity/imagination you can add to the position (like Hasek) to improve your lot — and for most guys creativity like that undermines the position’s fundamentals.
Just a thought. As Martin Biron learned last summer (and will reaffirm this summer), having been a #1 doesn’t carry a premium anymore.
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