The numbers are in and the rumors have been confirmed: Ilya Kovalchuk's deal with the New Jersey Devils is indeed the monster (said in my best Pierre McGuire voice) 17-year, $102 million deal. Just about any contract comes with risk because of injuries and the uncertainty of performance. Sometimes the risk is minimal in that the term isn't egregious and the cap hit is reasonable. Other times, you pay more for a shorter term, or you provide yourself with more short-term flexibility on the cap hit by extending the term. Kovalchuk's deal sets a precedent, not only in term but also because of the age he'll be coming out of it. The problem with a contract like this is that it's a double-edged sword capable of hurting the Devils as much as it helps them.

I'll leave the debate about the contract's validity to Dirk of On The Forecheck, but let's take a look at the pros and cons from a hockey perspective.

Pros

-Goals: Goals, goals, goals -- that's what Ilya Kovalchuk is about. Since the lockout, Kovalchuk's goal totals have been 52, 42, 52, 43, and 41. That's pretty consistent across a wide range of teammates, from the revolving door in Atlanta to his new team and new coach in New Jersey. Despite finishing second in the Eastern Conference, the Devils' 222 goals wasn't anything to write home about, so the goals will certainly be welcome. In fact, the Devils goals-for was lower than any Western Conference playoff team and only more than the goal-starved Boston Bruins and injury-hit Montreal Canadiens for Eastern Conference playoff teams.

-Cap hit: He wanted $100 million deal and he got it -- but Kovalchuk's average annual salary drops rises and drops over the length of the 17-year term so that the actual cap hit is only $6 million. That's a very manageable cap hit for a first-line player capable of 50 goals. In fact, it's low enough that previous fears about losing Zach Parise (restricted free agent next season) due to a cap squeeze might be quashed. However, the Devils will certainly have to make some sort of move for their roster to be eligible, as they're currently $2.3 million over the cap.


-Age: At age 27, Kovalchuk should be in the middle of the 25 - 32 range when NHL players tend to be the most consistent. That means at least five years of 40-50 goal seasons, and no one's going to complain about that.

Ah, but like Harvey Dent would say, there are two sides to every coin. For every benefit that Kovalchuk's contract has, there's a potential downside.

Cons

-Goals: Goals are great and there are few people that can score goals like Kovalchuk -- but that's pretty much it. Now, Kovalchuk's become a better all-around player since his career began (he credited former coach Bob Hartley for helping him become more of a team player) but anyone who watched him during his New Jersey tenure could see that he was still prone to floating. Perhaps more frustrating, when the going got tough, Kovalchuk got going, but in the wrong way -- he often tried to take the puck and go coast-to-coast by himself. That never works; the reason why coaches hate it when guys "try to do it all himself" is because any team with a competent defensive scheme can neutralize a player like that.


-Cap hit: A $6 million cap hit is great for a 50-goal scorer at age 30. But what happens when the goals dry up and you've still got a $6 million cap hit for a 35-year-old guy who will have diminished speed and probably 20-25 goals. I don't think anyone actually believes Kovalchuk will actually play until 44 (that's a debate for another post), but he'll still probably play until his late 30s with that cap hit. Of course, the cap ceiling will most likely be different in ten or 15 years, but $6 million will still be a significant hit -- especially if the rumored push to drop the cap ceiling comes during the next CBA negotiations.

-Age: As mentioned above, the Devils should get at least five years of 40-50 goal seasons. After that? A player's skills will naturally decline as he goes deeper into his 30s. A few players, like Joe Sakic, continued to put up all-world numbers deep into his 30s but those players aren't exactly a dime a dozen. Instead, you usually see a gradual decline in point totals after around 32 or 33. Once you hit 40 (theoretically speaking, of course; I doubt he'll actually play that long), it becomes a year-to-year thing. Marian Hossa and Roberto Luongo are signed until 42, but let's just assume Kovalchuk actually tries to play this out. The problem with Kovalchuk is that he's fairly one-dimensional, and once that goal-scoring ability starts to go away, you're not going to have him contributing in other ways such as two-way play, penalty killing, or face-offs. That's why contracts for Mikko Koivu and Patrick Marleau seemed more acceptable for both hockey reasons and cap reasons than Kovalchuk's demands.

Any contract past a five-year term is a huge risk. Kovalchuk could blow out his ACL next year and never have the same explosive skating stride again -- and then he'd be stuck on the Devils roster as a mediocre goal scorer for 16 years after that. Injuries are always a concern in these types of deals (see: Rick Dipietro), but there's also the concern that a player just doesn't play as well, for whatever reason.

Ilya Kovalchuk's seen a lot of instability in his NHL career, from Atlanta's ownership situation to the revolving door of coaches behind the Thrasher bench to his ever-changing set of teammates. Perhaps being on a team with a strong general manager and a history of stability will allow Kovalchuk to settle in and grow. It also remains to be seen how John MacLean handles Kovalchuk in his first season as head coach. It's rare that you can get a guy to evolve his game as he enters his late-20s, but maybe MacLean can hit the right notes with Kovalchuk to push other aspects of his game. And if he can manage that, then we'll have to look at this contract in a different light.