Few NHL stars play past 40
The Ilya Kovalchuk contract rejection is all over the hockey blogosphere today (because really, it's the only thing going on). Behind The Net did a good comparison to other recent "lifetime" contracts and you can see why this one goes further past the boundaries of the other ones. In my last post, I noted a study from Quant Hockey that showed 0.02% of players played at 44, and here's another breakdown worth looking at: a list of notable star players that retired since 2007.
It's a pretty simple list below, but you can see the names are a mix of Hall of Famers, strong first-line players, and gritty warriors. Some of them could have kept going, some just weren't offered a contract, and some of them simply couldn't handle the physical demands anymore after years of NHL hockey.
| Player | Age | Year |
| Scott Niedermayer | 36 | 2010 |
| Rob Blake | 40 | 2010 |
| Rod Brind'amour | 39 | 2010 |
| Keith Tkachuk | 38 | 2010 |
| Darryl Sydor | 38 | 2010 |
| Brendan Shanahan | 40 | 2009 |
| Joe Sakic | 40 | 2009 |
| Mats Sundin | 38 | 2009 |
| Michael Peca | 35 | 2009 |
| Markus Naslund | 35 | 2009 |
| Gary Roberts | 43 | 2009 |
| Jeremy Roenick | 39 | 2009 |
| Trevor Linden | 38 | 2008 |
| Glen Wesley | 39 | 2008 |
| Mattias Norstrom | 36 | 2008 |
| Stu Barnes | 36 | 2008 |
| Dallas Drake | 39 | 2008 |
| Peter Bondra | 39 | 2007 |
| John LeClair | 38 | 2007 |
| Joe Nieuwendyk | 40 | 2007 |
| Pierre Turgeon | 37 | 2007 |
Four guys retired at 40: Rob Blake, Brendan Shanahan. Joe Sakic, and Joe Nieuwendyk. Only Gary Roberts played past then; everyone else on the list was under 40.
42 (the age of Marian Hossa's contract) is really, really stretching it but still barely within the slight realm of reality. 44 (the final year of Kovalchuk's contract) really isn't. There's pushing boundaries, and then there's taking a Mega Man-style leap over the line.
And just because I'm going to force my nerd-ness on everyone, this is the greatest speech in cinema history about drawing the line:
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Chelios Era
In general, I agree that it’s unlikely Kovalchuk would have made it to the end of that contract. But just for the sake of argument: can we really assume that over the next 17 years, methods won’t be found to extend careers beyond what we currently see? Not everyone can be Chris Chelios, but it’s not hard to imagine longetivity becoming more commonplace going forward as understanding of the body becomes more fleshed out, training programs become more specialized and any number of factors converge to push athletes over the 40-year mark.
That’s why I picked recent retirees rather than guys who retired 10 or 15 years ago. Roberts is a freak of nature and even he couldn’t find a home after being waived.
I think guys will find a way to be physically able for competition thanks to advances in training.. It’s just at that point, younger (and cheaper) legs will fill the lineup.
Managing editor of From The Rink
www.fromtherink.com
Reap It, NHL.
I’d even go as far as to say that had Kovalchuk been a Lidstrom/Pronger-like defenseman instead of a speedy sniper, this contract wouldn’t have been questioned. It’s pretty standard opinion that forwards lose what makes them special as they progress through their 30’s, whereas hockey sense and positioning, the hallmarks of Hall of Fame defensemen, stay sharp through their late 30’s and beyond. The same reasons that allow them to play 10+ minutes more per game than forwards preserves their bodies.
I don’t see how, given the comparisons to players stated in the article, the NHL can win this one. Is it an attempt to circumvent the cap? Of course it is. So were the others. Is 44 THAT much more of a stretch than 42? I don’t think so. Kovy’s people can site his attendance record in addition to the contract comparisons. The league doesn’t have to like it, but they do have to live with it.
I’m not sure the data for guys who have played the majority of their careers pre-CBA will really be a solid way to forecast the probable career of a superstars who play post CBA…. The pre CBA era superstars could and often did make more, also in those days a guy got beat on more than he does now in the non-interference league – at least during regular season games….so arguably they’d age kinder….
by markbona-capsfan99 on Jul 21, 2010 2:44 PM CDT reply actions
The pre CBA era superstars could and often did make more, also in those days a guy got beat on more than he does now in the non-interference league – at least during regular season games….so arguably they’d age kinder….
The flip side to that is that the pre-CBA era was more of a grind but didn’t require as much stamina or skating ability. You can see on classic games that the current pace is faster on average than before. So while they may not be getting as much wear from interference, etc., the speed component is more important. Kovy’s fast, but will his legs wear down in the next five, ten, 15 years?
Managing editor of From The Rink
www.fromtherink.com
To clarify that last statement, I mean his speed versus a younger guy just breaking into the league. At 37, how much of Kovy’s speed will have degenerated, and thus limiting his value? Then you can project that all the way to 44. If he was going year to year with his skill set, would he be getting a contract at 44? That’s the debate, but there’s a big, big difference between a fairly one-dimensional scoring winger with a good shot and speed versus a Lidstrom-style positional defenseman.
Managing editor of From The Rink
www.fromtherink.com
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