Could Paul Kariya still thrive in the right situation?
When the biggest names left in the free agent pool are Alex Frolov and Lee Stempniak, you know the picking is slim. And yet, I'm surprised that Paul Kariya's name hasn't come up in more kicking-the-tire rumors. Kariya certainly isn't the player he was earlier in his career when he challenged Jaromir Jagr for the NHL scoring race. Nor is he the point-per-game producer that the Nashville Predators saw for a few seasons. Age has caught up to Kariya, and at 36, there's only so much value he can bring to a team.
Still, if he's healthy, that value should project out to 15-25 goals and 30-40 assists. There's a lot of chatter about the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks talking with Mike Modano for an cheap salary hit (sub-$1.5 million); why not Paul Kariya? He can still provide plenty of value, and in the right situation, he should be able to make out those point expectations. At this point in his career, he's a complementary player, not an ice-time leader, so it's all about finding the right fit for him.
Of course, this is assuming that Kariya and his agent aren't delusional about his salary value. He's not going to get anywhere close to the $6 million he made last season, and that was overpaying even when the Blues signed him to that deal. Would he willing to accept a $2 million deal to be on a more potent lineup?
Last year, he averaged about 17 minutes a game while still seeing significant power play time for the St. Louis Blues. His 43 points in 75 games weren't exactly earth shattering, but if you look at the Blues scoring leaders last season, just about everyone had a bad year. What if Kariya played those same minutes in a depth role as a second-line forward on a strong power play squad? If he's putting up 43 points in a situation where everyone is struggling to produce, imagine him skating alongside a productive center facing secondary defensive pairings.
The other thing to consider is his free agent competition. Plenty of teams still have holes to fill, and just about every free agent winger comes with question marks. Is Lee Stempniak the unproductive lump he was with the Toronto Maple Leafs or is he the goal-scoring machine he was with the Phoenix Coyotes? (I'm guessing closer to the former.) Will Alex Frolov ever break out of his enigmatic shell for more consistent production -- and will he actually live up to the contract value he's seeking?
If he's willing to accept the fact that big paydays are no longer part of his career, then Kariya -- at the right price -- could be the best fit for a winger out there. At 36, Kariya's no sure bet, but he's been a top-flight producer for the bulk of his career. I'd rather gamble on an aging star in a secondary role than an enigmatic journeyman who show offensive teases just often enough to drive you mad.
And besides, wouldn't you want a guy who once showed up in an Emilio Estevez movie (no, no, not Freejack or Men At Work)?
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