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How much is Drew Doughty worth?

When word came out that the Los Angeles Kings stepped away from Ilya Kovalchuk negotiations, the sticking point was the rumored price tag of $100 million. While the number would make most GMs take pause (who knows how Glen Sather reacted?), the CBC's Elliott Friedman also noted that the big cap hit over a long term was prohibitive to signing LA's upcoming free agents: Jack Johnson and, more notably, Drew Doughty.

Most defensemen take at least three or four years to really hit their stride. Doughty took two. Most rookies experience the ups and downs of a sophomore slump as new-found expectations get in the way. Doughty didn't beat the sophomore slump, he more-than-doubled his point total, skated big minutes, found his way on to Team Canada, and wound up finishing third in Norris voting. What's even more impressive about Doughty's turn as Norris finalist is his 662 votes (spread out over first, second, and third point allocation) doubled the fourth finalist Nicklas Lidstrom.

At this point in his career, the 2008 second-overall pick isn't just looking like a stud defenseman; he's already got the complete package at age 20. There's still plenty to learn, and Doughty will also physically mature into a stronger, tougher player. Of course, things can always hit a rough patch (see: Dion Phaneuf) but all signs are pointing at Doughty being one of the best defensemen -- if not players -- of his generation.

Thus, the big question Dean Lombardi currently faces is this: how much will Drew Doughty earn in 2011-12?

Star-divide

You can bet that Lombardi will try to start negotiating a contract extension for Doughty during the upcoming 2010-11 season. Lombardi's got a long track record of being fickle with his dollars, dating all the way back to his days as GM of the San Jose Sharks. There's no doubt that comparables will come up for both sides, and I'm guessing the following players will be cited:

(Note: I've added in the age of the player when they signed the contract, not their current age.)

Duncan Keith (26): $5.5 million, 12 years
Mike Green (24): $5.25 million, 4 years
Jay Bouwmeester (25): $6.68 million, 5 years
Dion Phaneuf (23): $6.5 million, 6 years

Out of all these guys, I think Jay Bouwmeester gets eliminated from true comparables because he's never been nominated for the Norris Trophy. Doughty's agent will probably take Bouwmeester's number and say that Doughty is worth more, but Lombardi can point at the other guys on the list to support his argument.

Does the turning point for maturation come into play? I'd think so, as Duncan Keith got to Norris-quality in the same year he got re-signed. Green was a Norris finalist in the first year of his extension. In other words, they were being paid more on the potential of taking their game from a great level to an elite level, which happened after they signed on the dotted line.

There are some similarities to Mike Green in terms of age, though Green's Norris votes are thanks to his torrid scoring pace. Green's defensive liabilities were mentioned quite a bit over the past two years, and the spotlight on them only intensified on a national scale during the series against the Montreal Canadiens

Phaneuf, however, represents an interesting comparable. Certainly, Phaneuf's consistency has wavered over the past few years, but when he signed his extension, Phaneuf was on pace for his first Norris finalist appearance. That was at the end of his rookie contract -- his third year, as opposed to Doughty's second.

In Phaneuf, you've probably got the strongest parallel in that his talent skyrocketed immediately. Keith and someone like Shea Weber took some more time to develop, while someone like Bouwmeester never quite fulfilled his potential. Obviously, Phaneuf and Doughty represent totally different styles. At his peak, Phaneuf was viciously physical and had a monster shot from the point, though his defensive IQ is up and down. Doughty's built more in the mold of Nicklas Lidstrom or Ray Bourque -- a mix of positioning, smarts, skating, and offensive instinct. At 20, Doughty's Norris finalist appearance makes him the second-youngest to ever get the nod behind one Bobby Orr at 19.

While Doughty's final year of his contract will undoubtedly influence contract negotiations, there's no getting around the facts. Norris candidate, Olympian, power play producer, and minute muncher; if Doughty simply maintains his current level of play rather than get any better, he'll be among the top defensemen in the league for years to come. It's very, very difficult to accurately predict how someone's career will go after just two seasons. A player could continue on the path to greatness, wind up hindered by injury, or simply battle inconsistency. For Dean Lombardi, the first half of Drew Doughty's third season will be pivotal, as it'll demonstrate if he's continuing an upward trend or if he'll regress from last season's Norris candidacy.

In the end, if you're looking at comparables, here's what you can consider: His Norris Trophy nomination came earlier than Phaneuf, his quality of play matured quicker than Keith, he defends much better than Green, and he's simply better than Bouwmeester. Is $7 million a season out of line for the second contract of his career? Compared to those guys, I'd say that he's worth it.

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I think a lot of the cost will be dependant upon the length of the contract, specifically whether or not the Kings buy any of his UFA years with it. If any of those UFA years are included in his new deal, the Kings will pay a bit of a premium for that, whereas if they only buy his RFA years – or if he’s an RFA upon expiration of the new deal, as Mike Green is – they can probably get away with paying a bit less.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jul 6, 2010 7:12 AM CDT reply actions  

he could ask for and easily get 6 mil a year

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nowhere to go but up!

by LeafFan1989 on Jul 6, 2010 7:24 AM CDT reply actions  

Sabres fans are watching this with interest, as Tyler Myers’s next contract might well depend on what Doughty gets.

by TheTick on Jul 6, 2010 7:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Chill

Myers is no Doughty.

Myers also has 2 years left on his contract. Myers should also get much less than Doughty.

I am the commenter formerly known as Belligerent Burkie

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by CoolJ90 on Jul 6, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Myers needs to replicate this season’s play over multiple season’s before he’s in the same conversation as Doughty.

Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com

by GoPens! on Jul 6, 2010 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Because 2 years is such a bigger sample size than one.

Myers had 11 goals and 48 points in his rookie season, compared to 6 and 27 for DD on a lower quality team (that year, chil CoolJ).

I never said Myers was light years better than Doughty, he may be just behind him, which still makes the contract relevant (ie, Doughty is making 6.5mil/year, so I want 6.25 mil).

by TheTick on Jul 6, 2010 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Because 2 years is such a bigger sample size than one.

It absolutely is. Players that have career years almost always see a drop in production the following year. If Myers can replicate this season’s success next year, then we’ll get a better idea of how talented he really is.

I never said Myers was light years better than Doughty, he may be just behind him, which still makes the contract relevant

How Myers does this year will determine whether Doughty’s contract is relevant.

Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com

by GoPens! on Jul 6, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Schenn was NOWHERE near as productive as Myers was in his rookie season… -12 on the season, with 2 goals and 12 asst. Weak numbers in comparison.

Fatang Fatang.

by NeverendingOptimism on Jul 12, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

who knows how Glen Sather reacted?

I can tell you. He said “Ilya Who? Is he has talented as Wade Redden?”

Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.

http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo

by poploser on Jul 6, 2010 10:48 AM CDT reply actions  

So are you implying that at 23 Phanhuef is Over The Hill and Done?

re: .

At his peak, Phaneuf was viciously physical and had a monster shot from the point, though his defensive IQ is up and down.

Seems to me like he could easily come back and still have a monster career….

by markbona-capsfan99 on Jul 6, 2010 1:32 PM CDT reply actions  

Of course he could. I’m not saying he’s done, he’s just hit a bump in the road. Right now, he’s not playing up to his contract and he really hasn’t been the same since his third year. Still plenty of time for him to get the ship steadied.

by Mike Chen on Jul 6, 2010 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions  


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