More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

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There's only one reason that an overwhelming majority of the pundits are picking the Red Wings to hoist the Stanley Cup about 12 hours from now, and it has nothing to do with Osgood's goaltending, Zetterberg's checking, Hossa's slump, Lidstrom's tender nethers or any or all of the above.

It has everything to do with where Game 7 will be played.

This has been a truly homer series, one of the most starkly divided best-of-sevens I can remember, and for that alone, it makes sense that Detroit finishes the job and wins its fifth Stanley Cup in 12 seasons.

The differences between the Wings' play at Joe Louis Arena compared to The Igloo, based on this admittedly small six-game sample size? Detroit's scored an average of two goals more per game at home, has a team save percentage a full 10 per cent better, has a power play effectiveness nearly double their road totals and a PK that has shutdown the Pens at a rate nearly 20-per-cent higher than what its managed in Pittsburgh.

Detroit has been on the power play more often at home, been shorthanded less, had 15 more hits per game and won nearly 56 per cent of its faceoffs.

As I've pointed out after both games in Detroit and in Pittsburgh, with two masterful coaches, the matchups have mattered in this series, and they should matter again tonight. The Pens simply need to generate better scoring opportunities, get more from their top line, play more disciplined and get a better performance from Marc-Andre Fleury. They need either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin to be the best player in a game filled with future Hall of Famers.

Scoring first would help, too, as the winning team has done in all but Game 2. Detroit's 10-1 in these playoffs when they get the first goal and only 6-6 when they don't, while the Penguins have had better luck battling back, going 9-4 when scoring first and 7-4 when not.

But Detroit has also not lost a game when leading after the first (7-0) or second periods (12-0) and has allowed only 10 even-strength goals at home in 12 games. They're 11-1 at Joe Louis, with the only loss coming in triple overtime way back in Game 2 of the second round.

"We’ve just been way more comfortable on home ice in the playoffs," Wings coach Mike Babcock said. "We were a great road team in the regular season. And we haven’t been as good. I think we’re 4-6 on the road in the playoffs. We’ve been way better at home, way more comfortable, way quicker, way more assertive. We look forward to that again [tonight]. In saying all that, when you come out in this rink or come to the Joe, you’re comfortable. This is where we work. This is where we live. It’s our fans, it’s our city. And we’re proud to be from Michigan and have the opportunity we do in front of our fans."

Pittsburgh's in tough, but the good news is that it's all down to this — and, hey, anything could happen.

But my money's on The Wing Dynasty, continuing its reign.

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

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One of the big differences now that the series shifts to Pittsburgh is the fact that Penguins coach Dan Bylsma gets last change, and a major advantage there is going to be getting Sidney Crosby away from some of the relentless checking he's faced. Expect the Pens captain to be double shifted and put on other lines in order to get him away from Zetterberg and Lidstrom, who he's matched up with the majorty of the first two games.

With so few penalties called, much of this series to this point has also been played at 5-on-5, which means line matching and head-to-head battles are all the more important. (Something that's bad news for the Penguins.)

Here's what Crosby's icetime breakdown looks like for Games 1 and 2 against the different Red Wings lines and pairings:

And the data behind those charts:

Crosby's averaged about 19 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time a game, well up from his regular-season average of about 15:30, and that hurts a player used to picking up about 40 per cent of his point production on the power play. The Red Wings are such a dominant even strength team (their 5-on-5 for/against ratio is nearly double the Pens in the postseason) that having so few penalties called plays into their game – even when you consider how lethal Detroit's power play was this season.

At least if there are penalties called you have a chance at getting more opportunities with a man advantage.

The Red Wings have been a top four team in every single postlockout season at outscoring their opposition at even strength, and have allowed only 10 even-strength goals in 11 home playoff games (when they've had last change). Even on the road in these playoffs, 45 per cent of the goals Detroit has allowed have come when they've been shorthanded. (On average, and depending on the season we're talking about, special teams goals only make up about 30 per cent of the goals scored in an NHL game. That's a lot of scoring considering power plays generally make up only around 12.5 per cent – seven or eight minutes – of your average game.)

Pittsburgh needs Crosby to break free, and my guess he only does that by (a) getting away from Lidstrom and Zetterberg and (b) getting some significant time on the power play.

The chances are decent he does both in Game 3.

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Detroit Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock rocks a McGill University hat at his press conference on Monday.

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Sure, it looks bleak, but one thing's certain: Pittsburgh absolutely, positively has to win tonight. To give you an idea of where they've gone wrong to this point, here's a compendium of stats and figures from the first two games in Detroit:

Icetime Leaders (Forwards)

1. Zetterberg 23:03
2. Malkin 21:49
3. Crosby 21:06
4. Staal 19:12
5. Filppula 19:01
6. Hossa 18:58
7. Franzen 18:26
8. Kunitz 17:25
9. Cleary 17:22
10. Fedotenko 17:17
    

Icetime Leaders (Defencemen)

1. Lidstrom 23:44
2. Stuart 23:35
3. Gonchar 23:18
4. Kronwall 22:33
5. Rafalski 21:32
6. Letang 20:41
7. Orpik 18:19
8. Eaton 18:02
9. Scuderi 17:46
10. Ericsson 16:48

Save percentage: Osgood (.969), Fleury (.893)

Players with two or more points: Abdelkader, Holmstrom, Hossa, Malkin
Players rated +2 or better: Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Rafalski, Cleary, Ericsson, Lebda, Abdelkader
Players rated -3 or worse: Gill, Scuderi, Eaton
Red Wings rated lower than +1: none
Penguins rated higher than -1: Gonchar, Orpik, Talbot

Shots on goal leaders

1. Malkin, 10
2. Hossa, 8
3. Crosby, 7
4. Kunitz, 7
5. Cleary, 6
6. Fedotenko, 6
7. Lidstrom, 5
8. Zetterberg, 5
9. Guerin, 5
10. Letang, 5

Missed shots: Wings 27 Pens 18
Hits: Wings 77 Pens 72
Blocked shots: Wings 21 Pens 24
Faceoff wins: Wings 63 Pens 43

More stats to come with a look specifically at one key matchup Mike Babcock was angling for in Games 1 and 2.

Picking through the stats, the Red Wings are the class of the postseason to this point. A four-game sweep of Columbus in the first round obviously helps, but Detroit leads in a whole whack of categories: goal differential, shot differential, taking few penalties, faceoffs, hits and, obviously, Stanley Cup wins.

The Red Wings have now made the final four eight times in the past 14 years. The Penguins were here last year, while Carolina's made the conference finals three times in the past seven years (an impressive feat in the 30-team era). Only Chicago's a real newcomer, as the Blackhawks haven't made it to Round 3 since 1995 (when they faced the Red Wings).

And, if you want to hear something really depressing (unless you're a Wings fan), Detroit's now made the final four 28 times. The other three teams have been this far a combined 26 times.

UPDATE My "final four" numbers are actually the number of times teams have either made the third round, the finals or won the Cup. They don't include seasons when every team that made the playoffs was a "final four" team unless those clubs made the finals.

According to a commenter in this thread (thanks Doogie), Detroit has 40 final fours if you include all their Original Six seasons, while the Blackhawks have 30.

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

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I'm a bit late on this analysis, but all the Balsillie business took up a lot of the blog coverage last week.

So, here it is: The Final Eight ranked by age, height and weight.

I've posted this enough times to know the questions that are coming, so, if the Red Wings didn't include Mr. Chelios, their average age would be 29.7 — so they're still old. And if Chara wasn't included in the Bruins height calculation, they'd be 72.9 inches on average, which is a hair under 6-foot-1 and fairly short by NHL standards.

Other than Detroit, which simultaneously always has the oldest and smallest team, the Capitals are at another extreme with the second youngest — next to Chicago — and biggest club. (That'd be an interesting finals matchup, no?)

Carolina's the East's version of the Red Wings (old and small), while the Canucks were the biggest Western Conference club in the mix.

Food for thought.

More photos » by Jonathan Hayward - AP

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All four of this year's second round series could potentially end in Game 6, with only one of the higher-seeded teams (Detroit) currently holding the 3-2 series advantage. That means that all three of Carolina, Chicago and Pittsburgh can all wrap up their matchups in Game 6 at home.

Between when the NHL went to solely seven game series in 1986-87 and the 2008 playoffs, Game 6 has been the final game of more of the 315 series than any other option:

The basic numbers here? Fifteen per cent of NHL series end in a sweep, 26 per cent end in five games, 34 per cent end in six and 25 per cent go the distance.

Which teams win?

Checking out whowins.com, when the higher-seeded team (in this case Detroit) leads a series 3-2, they have historically won the series 83.5 per cent of the time and ended the series on the road in Game 6 56 per cent of the time.

When the lower-seeded team (in this case Carolina, Chicago and Pittsburgh) leads a series 3-2, they have historically won the series 75.6 per cent of the time and ended the series at home in Game 6 61 per cent of the time.

Depending on how many Game 7s we end up with, this could go down as a heckuva second round.

As a quick follow up to my post from last night on European goaltenders, what follows is a quick and dirty look at goal-scoring rates in eight top professional leagues. As a rule of thumb, the NHL averaged 5.70 goals per game this season, up from about 5.45 last year, and those figures don't include shootout goals.

The goals per game numbers below are lifted straight off of the standings in the respective leagues, and I believe they do include shootout goals:

Totals are based on this past season only, and do not include postseason figures.

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Top 20 playoff scorers, postlockout

Top 10 defencemen, postlockout

Top 10 goaltenders, postlockout